Parker has two NFL seasons under his belt. Let's take this in pieces to understand where he can go.
As a senior in college he knew his chance to become an NFL player, get drafted high, secure his financial future, and live his dream was very closely correlated to his performance his final year in college. Being injured dramatically reduced his chance to show he could be great. So, he rushed himself back, got onto the field, played hurt, and was fantastic. Still, he wasn't fully healed.
Then preparing for the draft he was required to focus on explosive traits, such as his forty time, which he ran in 4.45, and his vertical jump, in which he jumped 36.5", and his broad jump where he leaped 125". All of these explosive activities put a high strain on an unhealed foot. So, like many rookies, he came into the NFL as an injured player who needed to heal. This isn't talked about a lot, but these same reasons cause a lot of rookies to come in hurt. It's a compounding of their focus to play hurt to show out for the pre-draft process. As a result, we get a lot of injuries that linger, like Parker's, and a lot more that are over-stressed and cause big problems just before the draft. This is not an uncommon thing.
Fast forward to Parker as a rookie ... and let me say that word again ... rookie. He has heard all of his life about how he needs to work to be great, but at every level he has simply been great because he has superior athletic ability. He comes in injured but wants to play ... so doesn't let it heal. Like most warriors he tells his coaches he is fine, and plays on it when he shouldn't. Preseason isn't really a challenge. Lots of drill work without contact. Minimal padded practices. Only a few quarters of actual play in games and even that is vanilla coverages against veterans who are trying not to get injured or players who likely will never start an NFL game. It's not hard.
Then comes the regular season. All of a sudden the speed of the game ramps up dramatically. The physicality of the defenders jumps tremendously. For the first time in his life, he isn't faster or bigger than the CB's. They know exactly what he is going to do before he does it. Now, he needs every ounce of his athletic ability ... and his foot is failing him. His explosion isn't there, it is replaced by pain he is afraid to show. For the first time in his life, he isn't dominant ... he isn't even good. Of course in his heart he knows that it is all because of this foot he didn't let heal. As he heals a bit he shows flashes of the player he knows he can be. In his mind, he just needs to heal and he will physically dominate again. He is wrong. It takes more than that, but he doesn't realize that yet.
Now his second year comes along. He just assumed he would heal by not playing. But he didn't keep his body in pristine shape. He didn't take his craft seriously enough. He was born with physical gifts that Jarvis Landry could only dram of having with true elite speed and size. But it made him believe he would always succeed and he didn't learn the valuable lesson Landry learned ... that to be great you need to outwork everyone else. I call that the Jerry Rice work ethic. So, while DVP thinks season two will see him dominate and become a superstar ... it begins with Gase leaving him at home, sending a clear message that he needs to shape up. Parker does what he has always done, relies on his physical ability, and shows some of his immaturity by being late to meetings and skipping voluntary throwing sessions with Tannehill. He thinks he can just flip the switch and be great. But as season two showed him ... he is just ordinary when he fails to put in the requisite effort. He is slowed by foot, hamstring and lower body injuries ... and he's no longer 17, so his body doesn't bounce back quite as quickly . Parker is NOT the success he expects to be.
As the season ends, everyone is talking about how Landry is already a legend. Everyone is debating how valuable Stills is and how much we need him. And people are putting Parker into the same questionable boat as Leonte Caroo. His own self-reflection tells him he has had two NFL season and is being viewed as a bust by the pundits. FINALLY, he starts to get it. Stills is a talented WR who is a great grinder. Landry is a talented WR who is a great grinder. They never miss meetings or workouts. They never fall victim to nagging injuries. They're always at the facility lifting, running, and studying film. They're always running routes again to perfect them well after practice has ended. They work during the offseason like they have a game that Sunday. They eat right. They drink right. They talk non-stop about grinding. They live grinding.
So Parker is at a bit of a crossroads. He has a 4 year contract with a team-owned 5th year option. Based on past performance, he's an average NFL player, with no great accomplishments. If he wants to become a good player, he needs to devote his life to the temple of football. He needs to work at it EVERY day. He needs to prioritize work over fun. He needs to prioritize work over friends. He needs to prioritize work over family. And, if he truly wants to become great, he needs to make the transcendent step of devotion and adopt the Jerry Rice work ethic.
We've heard the platitudes. We've seen the flashes. We notice that Parker has strengthened his lower body. The stage is set. If Parker wants to become great, he is the only one who can do it. He has size bigger and longer than Jerry Rice. He has speed faster than Jerry Rice. He has good hands and excellent length to be a mismatch target. He has the after the catch running ability to generate large amounts of YAC. He has the size and length to be a red zone threat and rack up lots of TD's. He has the long speed to catch deep balls and generate high YPC. If he wants to be thought of in the same breath as AJ Green, the physical ability is there. All it takes is complete dedication.
This year is year 3. That is the typical breakout year for WR's. Many today show up earlier, but it's not uncommon to make the breakthrough in year 3. Those that do not ... tend not to make a breakthrough at all. The NFL is littered with guys like Justin Hunter who have all the tools but haven't given the effort developing themselves to make them great ... or even good ... or even earning a roster spot.
If he waits until year 4, he'll be lumped into a not so generous group of players who "only produced in a contract year" generating a lot of skepticism about offering him a big contract. Year 4 is the last chance saloon for big contracts. And if you're hurt in year 4, you're SOL. So, IMHO, if he's going to prove he wants to be great. This year, year 3, is the year he must prove it. I think he can. And more importantly, I think he will.
