Great article saying Gase conservative offense doesn't fit Parker's Elite skill set. | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Great article saying Gase conservative offense doesn't fit Parker's Elite skill set.

Digital said:
One thing to remember about that statistic, is that it is skewed towards better run games. For example, if we have 2 QB's who always throw the ball 10 yards through the air, here's how it would play out.

Team A has a great run game, so first down, they gain 6 yards. Then on 2nd and 4 the defense puts 8 men into the box, and the QB throws against a run defense, completing a pass traveling 10 yards in the air ... that's +6 ALEX, because it's 4 yards to the first down, then +6 because the pass traveled 10 yards in the air (10-4=6).

Team B has no run game, so on first down they run and gain 2 yards. Then on 2nd and 8 the defense either blitzes or drops 6 guys into coverage, both of which make for a harder situation facing the QB. Still, the QB completes a pass traveling 10 yards in the air, so he has a +2 ALEX, because it is 8 yards to the first down, then +2 because the pass traveled 10 yards in the air (10-8=2). So, the QB on Team B actually had a significantly harder situation because his team's run game was not as good ... and even though he did well, he is rewarded less than the QB that completed an identical pass with the same yardage through the air.

Those sort of stats are the ones that fail to take into account other things, like the team's run game. If you can compare teams with very similar run games, then it has a good usage. But until we compare some of those externalities, it's hard to judge.

This is where it's usually better if we can see the down and distance, score, and know more about the teams. On it's own, it's very hard for any metric to really capture individual performance in such an interdependent team game.

ALEX can be a useful statistic, but it's really a general tool more than a specific one. If I were only allowed one stat, I might consider yards per attempt or TD/INT ratio ... but none of them really capture how well a QB is doing very effectively. Still, good to look at all of them as part of the analysis.
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I forgot to mention ALEX is only for 3rd and 4th down plays, so running game doesn't really come into it.
 
I don't get the dislike of Gases concepts. He maximized ypa
 
where's th'fish said:
I forgot to mention ALEX is only for 3rd and 4th down plays, so running game doesn't really come into it.
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Well it should account for down and distance, which is the crux of the run game analysis. This metric penalizes a QB for being behind the sticks on 3rd down, whereas a QB that has a strong run game is often ahead of the sticks on 3rd down and has the option to run or pass, which doubles his advantage before he even throws a pass. It's so hard to capture all of those variables into one stat, but it would be helpful if the QB were rewarded for more yards per attempt calculated into that metric.

I see how it penalizes plays called short of the 3rd down marker, and that is definitely useful, but it's just plain harder to convert 3rd and 15 compared to 3rd and 2. This metric rewards the player who completes a 3 yard pass on 3rd and 2 and penalizes the QB that completes a 14 yard pass on 3rd and 15. I realize the latter guy threw short of the 1st down marker, but it's still tougher to complete a 14 yard throw than a 3 yard throw, so penalizing the QB in that situation seems like the opposite of how I would analyze it. If you want 3rd down conversion, we have that stat. It incorporates the QB's ability to audible into a run play, because sometimes that's the right call. If this is seen as a measurement of aggressiveness in play calling or target choices, that makes more sense to me. But as a holistic metric, I think it should be accompanied by another metric to give it depth.
 
Jerrysanders said:
SMH thats Peyton Mannings offense, Gase gets no credit for that. Peyton has been quoted saying Gase was very willing to learn.
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Of course!! Any great coach is willing to learn from a HOFer. (especially a young one)

Chip Kelly was just at our practice because once again great coaches are willing to learn even from Chip Kelly.

You don't think Tomlin learns from Ben and so on?

To say Gase gets no credit is a joke.

The guy got a head coaching job because of it and he hasn't disappointed.

The question was is Gase's offense too conservative for Devante Parker?

How can we have a top offense in terms of big plays and say that he runs a too conservative offense for Parker?

Conservative offenses don't produce big plays. We've seen it first hand.

Parker's been quoted saying it's been his fault for not living up to 1st rd expectations.

I'd say it's more Tannehill being a conservative passer more than Gase choosing to have a conservative offense.

Our offense is set up with 3-4 players with big play ability. Gase just told Tannehill to let it rip lol

I wasn't saying you were clueless. I said the article is garbage and makes no sense.
 
Jerrysanders said:
Peyton Manning's offense set records in Denver, Gase's offense was very conservative in Chicago.
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If you're going to bring up Qbs, Cutler had a QB who had one of the best years of his career and is now retired due to being horrible after Gase.

Cutler gushes about Gase as well.

The guy made Jay Cutler a good QB lol

There's really no argument.

I'm not trying to say anyone is clueless except for that dumba$$ fan blogger.

We sure as hell didn't win 10 games because our Defense did $hit.

Stills had 9 and should have been 10 deep tds.

The LAST person we should be criticizing is our Head Coach.
 
Digital said:
Well it should account for down and distance, which is the crux of the run game analysis. This metric penalizes a QB for being behind the sticks on 3rd down, whereas a QB that has a strong run game is often ahead of the sticks on 3rd down and has the option to run or pass, which doubles his advantage before he even throws a pass. It's so hard to capture all of those variables into one stat, but it would be helpful if the QB were rewarded for more yards per attempt calculated into that metric.

I see how it penalizes plays called short of the 3rd down marker, and that is definitely useful, but it's just plain harder to convert 3rd and 15 compared to 3rd and 2. This metric rewards the player who completes a 3 yard pass on 3rd and 2 and penalizes the QB that completes a 14 yard pass on 3rd and 15. I realize the latter guy threw short of the 1st down marker, but it's still tougher to complete a 14 yard throw than a 3 yard throw, so penalizing the QB in that situation seems like the opposite of how I would analyze it. If you want 3rd down conversion, we have that stat. It incorporates the QB's ability to audible into a run play, because sometimes that's the right call. If this is seen as a measurement of aggressiveness in play calling or target choices, that makes more sense to me. But as a holistic metric, I think it should be accompanied by another metric to give it depth.
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Yeah, that would be nice, although it might turn out there isn't a lot of difference in 3rd down to go on avg from team to team to go on. Also, ALEX is pretty consistent from year to year. Big Ben has been #1 two years in a row, Alex Smith is always low (duh) and I was wrong about Tannehill, his ALEX was 1.4 last year and 1.5 two years ago with Lazor's (I wasn't able to find older numbers). And there are clearly QBs who are a danger even on 3rd and 15, while others will never even try to convert in that situation. I think ALEX provides a great picture of that.
 
where's th'fish said:
Yeah, that would be nice, although it might turn out there isn't a lot of difference in 3rd down to go on avg from team to team to go on. Also, ALEX is pretty consistent from year to year. Big Ben has been #1 two years in a row, Alex Smith is always low (duh) and I was wrong about Tannehill, his ALEX was 1.4 last year and 1.5 two years ago with Lazor's (I wasn't able to find older numbers). And there are clearly QBs who are a danger even on 3rd and 15, while others will never even try to convert in that situation. I think ALEX provides a great picture of that.
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There definitely is value in an offense that runs it's receivers past the first down marker vs. an offense that has it's receivers run short of the marker to facilitate an easier throw/catch and then requires the receiver to make the last bit. That tends to be a function of the offensive concepts and they don't change much year to year. In most cases these days the play caller is not the QB, so all he really has are some audible privileges out of the formation and personnel packages that the coach has already called. Honestly, a lot of what that metric measures speaks more to the offensive coordinator than the QB, regardless, guys who check down all the time, like Alex Smith, aren't going to do well by that metric either.
 
The offensive system and OC is definitely a factor and something to consider. That's why I posted this in reply to the poster who said the Dolphin offense is very conservative. Then again, like I said, Tannehill had nearly the exact same ALEX under Philbin and Lazor two years ago under a much more conservative scheme than last season under Gase. My guess is "real" QBs will do what they think they ought to do and only follow instructions to a degree, while journeymen are more likely to reflect exactly the OC's philosophy.
 
This is dumb. And Don Shula's ground and pound offense didn't fit Dan Marino's elite skill set.

Parker needs to up his game - how about coming down w/out your wrist or butt hitting the paint in the EZ...twice.
 
Avigatorx said:
Which stats show that?

And if they are provided, please show a direct comparison to Stills #s.

Also, please show me where Lazor let Tanny take more shots downfield than Gase. I'm just going from memory, but I'd be shocked if that was true.
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Kenny Stills Catch rate in 2016 was 52%, Parkers catch rate was 64%, Stills drop rate was 2.5%, Parkers Drop rate was 1.75%. On limited Catches Parker was still ranked the 26th best receiver by PFF with an overall grade of 79.6 compared to Stills 74.5. Parker had two games in 2016 that eclipses anything Kenny Stills has done in his entire career, Week 10 receiving a PFF grade of 86.2 vs San Diego and week 11 vs ST Louis with 84.2 which was second highest in the NFL both times ; even without the data its not hard to see DVP is a much better player than Stills just based on film.
 
Digital said:
There definitely is value in an offense that runs it's receivers past the first down marker vs. an offense that has it's receivers run short of the marker to facilitate an easier throw/catch and then requires the receiver to make the last bit. That tends to be a function of the offensive concepts and they don't change much year to year. In most cases these days the play caller is not the QB, so all he really has are some audible privileges out of the formation and personnel packages that the coach has already called. Honestly, a lot of what that metric measures speaks more to the offensive coordinator than the QB, regardless, guys who check down all the time, like Alex Smith, aren't going to do well by that metric either.
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Alex Smith has more air yards than Tannehill SMH.
 
Jerrysanders said:
Alex Smith has more air yards than Tannehill SMH.
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No, he doesn't. Alex Smith had 3.23 per the link you posted in the other thread. Tannehill had 3.86. For reference, Aaron Rodgers had 3.91, only slightly higher. Then again, you mention air yards, not air yards per attempt. And you're right, Alex Smith does have more than Tannehill. But then maybe you should mention Alex Smith has about 500 more total yards than Tannehill, but only 80 more air yards. Which is why air yards per attempt is a better stat than simply air yards.
 
where's th'fish said:
No, he doesn't. Alex Smith had 3.23 per the link you posted in the other thread. Tannehill had 3.86. For reference, Aaron Rodgers had 3.91, only slightly higher. Then again, you mention air yards, not air yards per attempt. And you're right, Alex Smith does have more than Tannehill. But then maybe you should mention Alex Smith has about 500 more total yards than Tannehill, but only 80 more air yards. Which is why air yards per attempt is a better stat than simply air yards.
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How many attempts did each qb have total??

261 vs 328


hmmm weird how one guy has more yards than the other
 
And of of course it should be stated that Smith had 500 more yards and 80 more air yards because he played 16 games and Tannehill played 13.
 
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