You are dependably paranoid about me. That must be so sad to deal with. Imagine watching that game unfold with a terrific Dolphins comeback and actually caring about what someone named Awsi Dooger might post or not post on a fan message board.
Of course, fear is so popular these days. Enjoy.
I was on a 3 week trip. Wonderful experience. I based in Williamsburg and caught Miami/Duke, East Carolina/South Florida, and South Carolina/Arkansas before returning just in time for Miami's extremely fortunate escape against Georgia Tech.
No, I won't be commenting on this incredibly dull period of Dolphins football history while I'm on vacation. That's not exactly ideal time expenditure at my age, not when I can be handicapping how many different forts or museums or tourist attractions I can be squeezing into the agenda for the next day.
I did thrill to the Chiefs losing for the first time. My dad bought season tickets for the family beginning in 1972.
Anyway, that Falcons/Dolphins spread was -10.5 very briefly if at all. Only roy miami predictably noted the uptick. It was -11 early in the week and then one of the major betting groups had an order at -12.5 or lower so they pounded it up to -13 on Thursday. Then it sat around for a day or so until bumped further to closing at -13.5 consensus with even some -14 finales.
I believe it is the greatest pointspread upset victory in Dolphins history. That's what I came here to report. Otherwise, no I'm not going to be posting here frequently. No particular reason other than I've started communicating more with some of my Las Vegas buddies from yesteryear. That's a different focus and I've been enjoying it.
The Dolphins were also 14 point underdog at Los Angeles in midseason 1980 but that spread went the other direction. It was pounded down to +11 at game time against the Rams. The initial spread was inflated due to David Woodley taking over at quarterback. Vince Ferragamo on the other side was the hottest quarterback in the league at that point. But the Dolphins were not a Crap team. We were pure Crowd with some nice talent still remaining from the '70s teams. That's why the sharp guys knocked down the number. It was viewed as too many points to give a decent team.
And the Dolphins won in a rout. I believe it was 35-10.
My contributions may not always be appreciated. But try to find any other example where the local media knew or remembered anything about that 1980 game and how the spread shifted. Best of luck. The Ronnie Brown Wildcat game against the Patriots is the other Dolphins game with a similar pointspread level and Miami win. That line was basically Patriots -12.5.
The Falcons game stood out as a poor situational spot for the Dolphins. I posted that as soon as the schedule was released. It was a long road spell for Miami followed by only one game at home and then immediately back on the road. That's a classic, "You've got to be kidding me," scenario where the body and mind simply aren't ready to go back out on the road again.
The betting group that hammered the line up to -13 is notorious for playing the situational trends. That's why it moved. Again, try finding this info courtesy of anyone else. That betting group always plays on Thursday. And that group will merely chalk it up as a loss and continue to play the situational trends. There is no hint of fear or overreaction in that environment. Meanwhile, I'm sure after the Saints game there were pronouncements on Dolphin sites that we wouldn't win more than 4 or 5 games all season. Simply a different way of looking at things. I believe in my most recent post here -- several weeks ago -- I emphasized that with all our Crowd tendencies you can't get too up on this team when things are going well, or too down when it looks bad.
Right now the defense is overstated. The personnel simply isn't good enough to justify some of the posts I've seen here tonight, or from the local sports media. The defense underachieved the past year or so, given all the penetration we achieved. I remember posting that it made no sense to allow so many rushing yards when we were attacking the line of scrimmage as a rule, and that the 2017 defense would logically rebound.
Despite the situational edge I did not wager on the Falcons. Given my systems the most points I am allowed to give in the NFL is 14, and that is Cream hosting Crap. Crowd teams have a very good history while allowed two touchdowns on the spot. In that game my angles had a play on Atlanta at -8 or lower.
I did expect the Dolphins to lose fairly handily. But I wasn't certain of a blowout due to a couple of variables: The Dolphins were still in turmoil and catching heat from fans and media. That's a positive especially on the road. If the Dolphins had been a cushy content 3-1 or especially 4-0 entering that game I'm very confident they would have offered low energy and lost by a touchdown or more.
Secondly, the bye week is not a positive for a huge home favorite the following week. Bye weeks benefit the small road favorite more than any other category: https://www.betlabssports.com/blog/how-to-bet-nfl-teams-coming-off-a-bye/
That's about it. I hope I didn't scare anybody.
