What a healthy Tannehill would do this year? | Page 7 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

What a healthy Tannehill would do this year?

True you haven't violated any site rules as of yet but when someone starts a thread and immediately insults other members in the first sentence it's probably gonna get little support (which it has)

Last night:

1) Looked at thread.
2) Started typing a response which would not violate terms, but would be incendiary enough to get the point across that I disagreed with the point, the tone, and the OPs football acumen
3) Thought "You know what? I'll just have this nice beer instead, because this would probably just give Fishfan more fires to put out."
 
Tannehill is in the same tier as Bradford, Alex Smith, Dalton, Stafford, and a few other "but who are you gonna replace him with" types I'm probably forgetting, and Cutler was in that tier as well as late as last season. You need a special coach and/or special talent to flourish with a QB in that tier. And by flourish I mean being a team nobody wants to face season in, season out.

Gase had his opportunity to get lucky. He should have demanded we replace Moore when he got here, and you never know, maybe we'd have gotten Dak in the third, Dak would have gotten his opportunity to start and the rest would be history. But Gase's ego got in the way. He wanted to show up Philbin and crew by creating a monster with the exact same QB situation. And now we (continue to) suffer as a result.

I also think it was off the table because drafting a QB, even in the third round, would have created an instant QB controversy. Not something he was looking to deal with his first season. And let's face it, Ryan does have talent, but yea, he is one of those "also ran" guys that Gase felt (and probably still feels) he can get the most out of.

I think without the injury to Tanny, that Gase would have kept the status quo at QB for 3 years. Tannehill's Injury is accelerating that plan.

And more broadly speaking with regard to 2017, there is little Tannehill could've done to improve the horrendous pass defense (opponents' overall passer rating is currently over 103), as the correlation between offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating throughout the league, on a team-by-team basis between 2004 and 2016, is -0.097, which is extremely weak.

As much as it hurts to think about it, a healthy Tannehill in 2017, performing at his best level for an extended period from 2016, would've been associated with an expected Dolphins record of 5-5.

The horrendous pass defense of 2017 places a sharp limit on what this team can achieve. As I've said before, surrendering an opposing passer rating of 99 to 105 has been associated with a 4-12 record on average in the league since 2004. Even the best quarterbacks in the league can't surmount that to the degree that a team makes the playoffs.

In fact of the 19 teams since 2004 that have surrendered such a poor passer rating, only one of them finished with a winning record, and that was the 2004 Green Bay Packers with Brett Favre, which finished 10-6 and were quickly dispatched in the playoffs by the Vikings and Daunte Culpepper, to whom they surrendered a passer rating of 137.1, in a game they lost 31-17.

In other words, a team with this kind of pass defense is going nowhere.

I do think that a QB's performance can have an effect on the D's performance. It may be a small effect, may be a large one, hypotheticals always look good in hindsight.

Let's assume your QB can put up a 105+ passer rating, well that does a few things. For one, it likely keeps the defense off the field for a bit longer, time of possession helps to keep a defense fresh and limits the number of plays it is exposed to.

It is also likely with a higher passer rating you are scoring more points than your opponents. (No, not a given, but possible) If your team is ahead on the scoreboard, you make the other team's offense more predictable, easier to defend. Your own D can be more aggressive at the line of scrimmage, thereby lowering the passer rating of the opposing QB.

So I think an argument can be made that a great QB helps your own pass D, to possibly a greater extent than simply adding talent at a few positions on D.
 
I do think that a QB's performance can have an effect on the D's performance. It may be a small effect, may be a large one, hypotheticals always look good in hindsight.

Let's assume your QB can put up a 105+ passer rating, well that does a few things. For one, it likely keeps the defense off the field for a bit longer, time of possession helps to keep a defense fresh and limits the number of plays it is exposed to.

It is also likely with a higher passer rating you are scoring more points than your opponents. (No, not a given, but possible) If your team is ahead on the scoreboard, you make the other team's offense more predictable, easier to defend. Your own D can be more aggressive at the line of scrimmage, thereby lowering the passer rating of the opposing QB.

So I think an argument can be made that a great QB helps your own pass D, to possibly a greater extent than simply adding talent at a few positions on D.


That argument can be made, yes, because the logic it's based on is plausible in theory. However, the argument can be tested easily with a simple league-wide correlation between offensive passer rating and opponents' passer rating on a team-by-team basis.

We don't have to stop with a mere argument, because the argument can be confirmed or refuted. And that argument is indeed refuted by the correlation I mentioned in an above post, which is essentially zero.

For example, take a look at Drew Brees's recent career. He's had four seasons of the past five in which his passer rating was an average of 99, which is very good, that were losing seasons for the Saints.

The Saints' average opponents' passer rating in those four losing seasons was 100.3, which is poor. The passer rating differential of 99 to 100.3 equaled several losing seasons for the Saints.

Now take a look at the Saints' four most recent winning seasons.

Brees's average passer rating in those seasons was 102.6, similar to his overall passer rating during the Saints' losing seasons. Their opponents' average passer rating in those winning seasons, however, was 84.1, well below the 100.3 average in Brees's losing seasons, and slightly below the league average in fact.

Obviously there is no correlation between Brees's performance and the Saints' performance defensively against the pass.

And you'll find that same thing throughout the league, regardless of how well or poorly an offense passes the ball.
 
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That argument can be made, yes, because the logic it's based on is plausible in theory. However, the argument can be tested easily with a simple league-wide correlation between offensive passer rating and opponents' passer rating on a team-by-team basis.

We don't have to stop with a mere argument, because the argument can be confirmed or refuted. And that argument is indeed refuted by the correlation I mentioned in an above post, which is essentially zero.

For example, take a look at Drew Brees's recent career. He's had four seasons of the past five in which his passer rating was an average of 99, which is very good, that were losing seasons for the Saints.

The Saints' average opponents' passer rating in those four losing seasons was 100.3, which is poor. The passer rating differential of 99 to 100.3 equaled several losing seasons for the Saints.

Now take a look at the Saints' four most recent winning seasons.

Brees's average passer rating in those seasons was 102.6, similar to his overall passer rating during the Saints' losing seasons. Their opponents' average passer rating in those winning seasons, however, was 84.1, well below the 100.3 average in Brees's losing seasons, and slightly below the league average in fact.

Obviously there is no correlation between Brees's performance and the Saints' performance defensively against the pass.

And you'll find that same thing throughout the league, regardless of how well or poorly an offense passes the ball.

I know what you're saying, my problem is that those numbers are taken over a long period of time with a large sample size. Most of the time that is what you want when analyzing statistics.

However, there is no way of knowing the individual game situations that create those numbers.

For example, lets say in Brees' 4 losing seasons that his passer rating was artificially inflated due to playing catch up football with his team behind on the scoreboard. The argument could be made that if his team was involved in closer games that his passer rating would not be so high. If his team is playing from behind it would be very unlikely his passer rating would have any effect on his defense's pass D rating.

No the other hand, in their winning seasons, if Brees got his team off to an early lead, it would naturally raise his defense's pass D rating.

I think in order to fully validate this theory you need to find examples of team's success in seasons where the only significant variable is the QB. For example, what was Greenbay's Pass D rating prior to the loss of Aaron Rodgers and what is it now with Hundley? What was Rodgers passer rating , and what is Hundley's?

There are alot of variables, strength of opponent not the most insignificant, but I think a situation like that would better help to validate your hypothesis.

Check GB, the Texans, maybe Arizona? I'm curious what you find.
 
I know what you're saying, my problem is that those numbers are taken over a long period of time with a large sample size. Most of the time that is what you want when analyzing statistics.

However, there is no way of knowing the individual game situations that create those numbers.

For example, lets say in Brees' 4 losing seasons that his passer rating was artificially inflated due to playing catch up football with his team behind on the scoreboard. The argument could be made that if his team was involved in closer games that his passer rating would not be so high. If his team is playing from behind it would be very unlikely his passer rating would have any effect on his defense's pass D rating.

No the other hand, in their winning seasons, if Brees got his team off to an early lead, it would naturally raise his defense's pass D rating.

I think in order to fully validate this theory you need to find examples of team's success in seasons where the only significant variable is the QB. For example, what was Greenbay's Pass D rating prior to the loss of Aaron Rodgers and what is it now with Hundley? What was Rodgers passer rating , and what is Hundley's?

There are alot of variables, strength of opponent not the most insignificant, but I think a situation like that would better help to validate your hypothesis.

Check GB, the Texans, maybe Arizona? I'm curious what you find.


A random sampling (sorted by average yards per punt) of 100 individual games in 2016 yields a similar result. The correlation between offensive passer rating and opponents' passer rating is 0.05.

The issue is that these variables (passer rating and opponents' passer rating) are functioning not only with regard to one's own team, but also through opposing teams, which have tremendous variation in their own strengths and weaknesses throughout the league.

In other words, although one might expect a strong pass offense to make the same team's pass defense's job easier, there is the confound of tremendous variation in the strength of opposing teams' pass offenses and defenses, which I suspect lessens this correlation we're talking about to near-zero.
 
real talk with so many hole on dolphins team. how far can avg qb like thill17 take the dolphins.
this is problems Gase will face in future. there is no qb in afc east closed to brady at age 40 and N.E. looking at winning sb, being in sb or afc championship game. 2017 is over.. forget about cutler and possible moore next yr, because Gase doesn't trust moore as qb.
 
I am not calling to fire Gase. But he should not be excused by loosing RT. There are just so many mistakes since the Steelers playoff game.
Is he a good HC, I don't know. Last season, it seems to be. Since then, absolutely no. The only parallel I can draw is Sparano.
Next year, he should be in the hot seat.
If no drastic improvement in other areas, a healthy RT next year can only do so much.
 
Tannehill was not the second coming of Marino. Tannehill is a mid-level QB, nothing more, nothing less. The results will be the same: a mid level team that might get lucky and make the playoffs as a wild card but just as likely to finish 8 and 8 consistently.
 
I am not calling to fire Gase. But he should not be excused by loosing RT. There are just so many mistakes since the Steelers playoff game.
Is he a good HC, I don't know. Last season, it seems to be. Since then, absolutely no. The only parallel I can draw is Sparano.
Next year, he should be in the hot seat.
If no drastic improvement in other areas, a healthy RT next year can only do so much.

You fail to take a lot into consideration...

Team displacement
Early travel schedule
Injured QB
No Bye Week
Lack of overall talent.

Last year gave many, including myself, a false sense that this roster was a good roster. It is not...that is what happen when a coach can help a team overachieve. The front office and even the coach believes that another year with the same group will lead to improvements when the reality is that it will not. Many predicted that the team last year would maybe be in the 6-9 win range and that was with the starting QB. The team is not a good team, holes at LB, old and aging DE's young mid-level CBs that are still gaining an understanding the game being forced into starting duty. An o-line that has had issues in the interior for years as well as a center who gets by on name alone and rarely on his play.

Honestly, this type of season needed to happen, it actually exposes the real holes that need to be addressed. Our hope is that some of that can begin. Although with the FO track record I have my doubts. This was a 7-10 win roster with Tannehill, without...you are looking at the 3-6 range.
 
Why are you guys still engaging Aquablood? The guy has been talking in circles throughout this conversation and probably forgot what his original stance was at the beginning.
 
For Gase supporters , one single excuse comes up every week is this season is a wash because RT went down.
Lets exam this theory. RT was a lower tier qb thru his entire nfl career except last year.
Under Gase last year, RT improved somewhat. His qb rating was an amazing 48.6 last season. 24th on the list of 30. It is not even average. It was below average. Lets not make him into a Brady, Brees, Rogers, Wilson or even Sam Bradford. RT is no savior. Can he improve our record this year? may be, by one game if that. RT cannot make the line block better, protect better, eliminate stupid mistakes. RT cannot make Timmons play game one. RT cannot make JT run faster. RT cannot make OL coach stay clean. RT cannot make Manaluga reported to camp in shape and stop drinking in bar early in the morning.

Most importantly, RT cannot make the opposing defense stop stacking the box and shut down the running.

Wake up, Gase supporters. Stop using RT not playing as an excuse. Do you really the RT is the top tier qb that when the run game is not working, put the offense on his shoulder and pass 350 yds to win the game?

Gase cannot get a pass this year. He did a good job last year, may be due to some lucks and weak schedule. But OK, whatever, give Gase credit. But it is a two ways street. Gase sucks this year. And losing RT is not a valid excuse.

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You can pretty much say RT had a tougher deal last year, and they went to the playoffs, so I hugely disagree with what you wrote.

Oh and Tannehill has rarely been or played like a lower tier QB...don't know where you got that from.
 
Tannehill is a mid level QB, nothing more, nothing less. He can manage a good team to win a SB. He cannot win a SB in an average team.
DVP still has value while he is healthy. He is an above average rw when healthy, may be bottom in top tier wr, or close to top tier. If he stay healthy for the rest of the season, there may be interest from other teams.

The only way the team get better is with better OL. Tannehill and an unreliable DVP can only elevate the team to 50/50 playoff contender. Nothing more.

I would like to see the front office to trade RT and DVP for two/three quality OL, and may be getting high picks as well.

Think about it, would you rather have RT behind this high school OL, without a running game, or would you prefer to have Moore, a strong line and a running game.

And do you think our passing will suffer that much with Stills, juicy and Carroo, given the DVP injury history since college, and you never know if he can play week after week.
 
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