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Paradigm Shift for Miami

Tannchise

Tannchise

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Since the downfall of this season started, we have debated back and forth between coaches and personnel and front office. I think the downfall of the NFL is not the flag issue. It is the inability for teams to evaluate qb's and it is what injuries have done to qb's, and the teams' lack of ability to stay at a high level. Look at Green Bay. They have been called the Cleveland Browns without Rodgers. That means like Miami, hey have holes on top of holes, but Rodgers hides it. However, when Brady was suspended last year, their depth at qb kept them in the season.

Miami has to somehow defeat the inability of teams that cannot evaluate qb's and take advantage of the fact that there are aging qb's on teams that probably won't draft one soon, but could. There are a ton of teams that need a qb: NYJ, Miami, Buffalo, Cincy, Cleveland,Jax, Indy, Denver, NYG, Washington, Az, and SF. As for Washington and SF, I believe their qb's could move on. As for teams that won't need a qb, but could draft one:NE, Pitt, Chargers, Saints. This is about half the NFL.

The problem is a little bigger. I think Miami needs not one 1, but 2 qb's. I think if they are lucky enough to find a qb, who can hide the deficiences on this team, it would be logical to get another one, to keep the potential train from chugging. Again, look at the Packers. Look, I don't think the solution is looking at every position here on the Phins and figuring out the algebra needed to know if they should be a free agent, a rookie, or drafted. The truth is, teams with elite qb's do a banged up job at hiding how bad their personnel is. We here in Miami want all the holes filled and the qb, which is going to be impossible.

So how is this done? I asked yesterday if the problem was scouting. Seems coaches and players and front office personnel has changed a ton, but maybe we are not scouting well, and also promoting these poor scouts to GM, like Grier and Ireland. Miami needs to know and understand what Houston, Phily and LA saw in Goff, Watson and Wentz. I would love to know if these teams built their offenses in somehow a similar way to how those qb's succeeded in college. They also need to understand mistakes made by recent picks by Jax with Bortles, Denver with their mess, and Cleveland.

The problem gets more complicated. Brady and Bellichick's marriage has been a system related, same philosophical, flexible situation. We could draft a qb this year or sign a FA, however, if Gase and the front office gets fired, then what? I don't know if Ross is aware of the internal issues we have at finding talent. If the front office has scouts that can't scout, then the same front office will have flawed info to make key personnel decisions.

Sorry for the early morning rant
 
Nice write up! It's not a rant to me. I am glad to see you continue the discussion about something that is vexing us all. How to get this franchise turned around.
 
Miami's overall talent evaluation has been terrible for quite a few years now. Under Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells they did pretty good on defense and had varying success running (average to very good), but the QB position suffered because they were old-school; build up from the trenches with a tough defense and a power running game. Neither Johnson nor Parcells put much effort into finding a franchise QB, and this kept them from advancing in the playoffs. More recently, Sparano had a good defense, but only an average (at best) offense because the Front Office would not select skill position players (QB, WR, TE, and RB) early in the draft. Replacing the Front Office personnel (from GM to Scouts) with people who could recognize offensive talent would have turned them into a playoff caliber team.

Keeping Ireland and hiring Philbin brought them a QB in the 1st round. But, the ONLY other part of the team that improved under Philbin was the WR corps, and this was because Philbin's offensive philosophy was to throw short all the time so he needed multiple WRs. The rest of the team went into the toilet. Their Top 5 Rushing Defense was neutered by Coyle's scheme change and Philbin's personnel changes. Philbin wanted a "finesse" team, with a fancy, complicated short pass based offense and a defense built to play with a lead. He ended up with a weak o-line that allowed the most sacks over a 4 year period and was consistently dominated by physical d-lines. Philbin's ball control offense couldn't stay on the field, so their "built to play with a lead" defense was ineffective. Gase replaced Philbin, but his offense and defense are pretty much copies of what was run under Philbin. Gase may WANT to run the ball and go deep more than Philbin, but he rarely has success because he's still using Philbin's pathetic o-line (with a few ineffective changes) and his defense is terrible.

The roster needs an overhaul, and the Front Office and coaching staff need to be replaced. This finesse, college-style offense and ineffective defense aren't cutting it. They need to go back to the old-school blueprints and start with tough, physically dominating o and d lines, and a strong running game. Add to this a good QB and a passing game that can cover the entire field (instead of just a 7 yard box) and they'll be successful again.
 
Meanwhile Ireland just got extended in New Orleans and has helped build a solid roster there. But thats what happens when he doesn't have to build a team around Chad Henne.
 
Tannchise said:
The problem is a little bigger. I think Miami needs not one 1, but 2 qb's. I think if they are lucky enough to find a qb,
Click to expand...
But what if Gase and the FO don't think we need to draft a qb?.....they also didn't think they needed to upgrade our OL...
Not sure I trust their "thinking"
 
Tannchise said:
Since the downfall of this season started, we have debated back and forth between coaches and personnel and front office. I think the downfall of the NFL is not the flag issue. It is the inability for teams to evaluate qb's and it is what injuries have done to qb's, and the teams' lack of ability to stay at a high level. Look at Green Bay. They have been called the Cleveland Browns without Rodgers. That means like Miami, hey have holes on top of holes, but Rodgers hides it. However, when Brady was suspended last year, their depth at qb kept them in the season.

Miami has to somehow defeat the inability of teams that cannot evaluate qb's and take advantage of the fact that there are aging qb's on teams that probably won't draft one soon, but could. There are a ton of teams that need a qb: NYJ, Miami, Buffalo, Cincy, Cleveland,Jax, Indy, Denver, NYG, Washington, Az, and SF. As for Washington and SF, I believe their qb's could move on. As for teams that won't need a qb, but could draft one:NE, Pitt, Chargers, Saints. This is about half the NFL.

Seems coaches and players and front office personnel has changed a ton, but maybe we are not scouting well, and also promoting these poor scouts to GM, like Grier and Ireland. MIAMI NEEDS TO KNOW AND UNDERSTAND WHAT HOUSTON, PHILLY, AND LA SAW IN GOFF, WATSON, AND WENTZ.
Click to expand...

Here's the easy answer . . . They saw nothing every other team, scout, writer didn't see. The POTENTIAL and raw talent was on display just as it was for Luck, RGIII, Bortles and a few others. Someone said in another thread there are 10 top HCs in the NFL every year. Same is true of QBs, yet teams are always trying to find the next Shula and the next Marino. Thus, Vance Joseph gets a HC gig based on 'buzz.' Back to QBs, fans tend to forget the Leafs and Bortles and remember the Wilsons and Prescotts. The odds of failure are MUCH higher than the odds of finding an elite QB which is why teams with middle-of-the-pack QBs seldom draft a QB in the top 10 picks.

You're right, Rodgers and Brady highlight the difference a good scheme and overall talent can have. This year, MINN is the prototypical example. Dallas and Philly (and Miami) show what a difference an OL can make. Once more, top QB prospects are not hard to find - they are EVERYONE's top 10 picks. The problem is BAD QBs are also on everyone's list. This obsession with thinking Miami's scouting department is significantly (emphasis on 'significantly') worse than most other NFL teams is a myth that never dies. The myth all R1 picks should be All-Pro in their rookie year is another of those myths.
 
This has to go down as one of the best posts.

It's amazing the difference Rogers makes in Green Bay. Finding that type of quarterback is a huge challenge and somewhat of a crap shoot, however. I think 23 teams passed on Rogers. Brady was a sixth round comp pick, meaning he was really a seventh rounder. Enough top picks at the quarterback position fail. Some are elite.

Anyway, I don't disagree. I think Miami can win with Tannehill, but if a quarterback falls in the teams' lap who is a potential upgrade I could see the team going in that direction.

As to the scouting department, I have often questioned that as well. I wonder, specifically, how scouts are graded and retained or let go? What system is in place for evaluation? This organization has had a real hard time finding offensive lineman something that has been debated heavily on this site. Changing schemes every three years certainly makes it tough on scouts and decision makers.

I remain hopeful that Gase can be here for the long haul. I think having that stability will really help this team. Let him grow, get his type of players and see where Miami can go.
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
This has to go down as one of the best posts.

It's amazing the difference Rogers makes in Green Bay. Finding that type of quarterback is a huge challenge and somewhat of a crap shoot, however. I think 23 teams passed on Rogers. Brady was a sixth round comp pick, meaning he was really a seventh rounder. Enough top picks at the quarterback position fail. Some are elite.

Anyway, I don't disagree. I think Miami can win with Tannehill, but if a quarterback falls in the teams' lap who is a potential upgrade I could see the team going in that direction.

As to the scouting department, I have often questioned that as well. I wonder, specifically, how scouts are graded and retained or let go? What system is in place for evaluation? This organization has had a real hard time finding offensive lineman something that has been debated heavily on this site. Changing schemes every three years certainly makes it tough on scouts and decision makers.

I remain hopeful that Gase can be here for the long haul. I think having that stability will really help this team. Let him grow, get his type of players and see where Miami can go.
Click to expand...

Agreed. People LOVE to dump on Miami's scouts (somewhat justifiably), but forget how many times and how many teams passed on Russel, Prescott, and an endless number of All-Pro players. Conversely, how many teams saw Bortles as 'can't miss' or the majority of R1 picks who end up being average or worse? IIRC, Jordan was nearly universally ranked in the top 8, but it was ONLY Miami that was inept for drafting him (I opposed the pick, because it required a trade up). And we all remember the future HOFr, Ghoulston(?). For me, until QB is one of the top 3 CRITICAL needs, skip on a day one QB.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Agreed. People LOVE to dump on Miami's scouts (somewhat justifiably), but forget how many times and how many teams passed on Russel, Prescott, and an endless number of All-Pro players. Conversely, how many teams saw Bortles as 'can't miss' or the majority of R1 picks who end up being average or worse? IIRC, Jordan was nearly universally ranked in the top 8, but it was ONLY Miami that was inept for drafting him (I opposed the pick, because it required a trade up). And we all remember the future HOFr, Ghoulston(?). For me, until QB is one of the top 3 CRITICAL needs, skip on a day one QB.
Click to expand...

The other point is how good would an elite quarterback look on this team? In other words with the offensive line being the same, would any quarterback succeed? You'd almost need that superman player like a Rogers or a Marino, but that may not even be enough to overcome the other issues.
 
Tannchise said:
Since the downfall of this season started, we have debated back and forth between coaches and personnel and front office. I think the downfall of the NFL is not the flag issue. It is the inability for teams to evaluate qb's and it is what injuries have done to qb's, and the teams' lack of ability to stay at a high level. Look at Green Bay. They have been called the Cleveland Browns without Rodgers. That means like Miami, hey have holes on top of holes, but Rodgers hides it. However, when Brady was suspended last year, their depth at qb kept them in the season.

Miami has to somehow defeat the inability of teams that cannot evaluate qb's and take advantage of the fact that there are aging qb's on teams that probably won't draft one soon, but could. There are a ton of teams that need a qb: NYJ, Miami, Buffalo, Cincy, Cleveland,Jax, Indy, Denver, NYG, Washington, Az, and SF. As for Washington and SF, I believe their qb's could move on. As for teams that won't need a qb, but could draft one:NE, Pitt, Chargers, Saints. This is about half the NFL.

The problem is a little bigger. I think Miami needs not one 1, but 2 qb's. I think if they are lucky enough to find a qb, who can hide the deficiences on this team, it would be logical to get another one, to keep the potential train from chugging. Again, look at the Packers. Look, I don't think the solution is looking at every position here on the Phins and figuring out the algebra needed to know if they should be a free agent, a rookie, or drafted. The truth is, teams with elite qb's do a banged up job at hiding how bad their personnel is. We here in Miami want all the holes filled and the qb, which is going to be impossible.

So how is this done? I asked yesterday if the problem was scouting. Seems coaches and players and front office personnel has changed a ton, but maybe we are not scouting well, and also promoting these poor scouts to GM, like Grier and Ireland. Miami needs to know and understand what Houston, Phily and LA saw in Goff, Watson and Wentz. I would love to know if these teams built their offenses in somehow a similar way to how those qb's succeeded in college. They also need to understand mistakes made by recent picks by Jax with Bortles, Denver with their mess, and Cleveland.

The problem gets more complicated. Brady and Bellichick's marriage has been a system related, same philosophical, flexible situation. We could draft a qb this year or sign a FA, however, if Gase and the front office gets fired, then what? I don't know if Ross is aware of the internal issues we have at finding talent. If the front office has scouts that can't scout, then the same front office will have flawed info to make key personnel decisions.

Sorry for the early morning rant
Click to expand...
I think the downfall of the league is the FACT that the league is instructing officials to fix games and people are figuring it out. I still believe Kraft gets what he wants because of the TV deal he played a prominent role in and that he is rewarded on the field. The illegal contact and pass interference the Pats get away with over and over and over again just won't end.
 
Dolphins' fans lived a charmed life for much of Marino's career. Marino played on some really good, really complete teams. Then later in his career, Marino's talent plastered over a lot of the roster cracks. We could be a consistent winner, but never got over the hump.

I think we get frustrated as fans because we have no clue what the points of emphasis are for the scouting department. Parcells at least laid out what he was looking for at all positions. Agree or disagree, we knew what our FO philosophy was. With Tannenbaum and Grier, the picture is cloudy.
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
The other point is how good would an elite quarterback look on this team? In other words with the offensive line being the same, would any quarterback succeed? You'd almost need that superman player like a Rogers or a Marino, but that may not even be enough to overcome the other issues.
Click to expand...

I'd prefer to change 'elite' to 'top 10,' since that's more realistic. Ryan, Smith, Wilson, . . . those guys. While we're at it, throw in Keenam, Luck, Carr. Yeah, it would be GREAT to have an elite QB, but, short of that, I can't imagine much of a change in W/L - certainly not playoff bound.

FWIW, there are about 2-4 'elite' QBs every year, and the remainder of the top 10 relies on help (a good D, an elite RB, something).
 
It's a tough game trying to make the right draft picks. I remember when Cam picked Ted Ginn over Brady Quinn, Mr All World Notre Dame QB who played in Charlie Weis's pro style offense that he coached with the Patriots. He can't miss!!!!!!!!!! We all wanted the guy, admit it. Brady Quinn couldn't even stay in the NFL as a clip board holder so at the end of the day there's a lot of luck involved. I believe Miami should draft a QB and if the right one is sitting there, just pull the trigger. We need a young star QB to groom behind Tannehill. We also need a oline and a TE buts who's counting?
 
The NFL better get a handle on the officiating. Right now they are losing fans and doubt is creeping into most people's minds as to the integrity of the refs. This was something I didn't want to ever see but here it is. There was just too many millions flying around.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Agreed. People LOVE to dump on Miami's scouts (somewhat justifiably), but forget how many times and how many teams passed on Russel, Prescott, and an endless number of All-Pro players. Conversely, how many teams saw Bortles as 'can't miss' or the majority of R1 picks who end up being average or worse? IIRC, Jordan was nearly universally ranked in the top 8, but it was ONLY Miami that was inept for drafting him (I opposed the pick, because it required a trade up). And we all remember the future HOFr, Ghoulston(?). For me, until QB is one of the top 3 CRITICAL needs, skip on a day one QB.
Click to expand...

1) It IS a critical need. There is no guarantee RT can even play next year and every one of our remaining QBs on the roster are D players or lower.

2) This is the exact line of thinking that has put us in the position we have been in since Marino. We have always held off on drafting QBs in the first round and now have dick to show for it.

Draft a QB and put an end to this ridiculous cycle.
 
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