2017 Miami Dolphins Playoffs Scenario Thread entering Week 14 (channeling my inner Jim Mora)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Kdawg954, Dec 4, 2017.

  1. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Paint on My Hands from Paintin the Perfect Picture Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Spare me all of the nonsense about what this team can't and won't do. Entering week 14, with 4 games left, Miami still has the slimest of chances to make a push at the playoffs. So I figure I put together a small little road map if anybody is interested:

    First things first . . . Miami has to win out and go 9-7. I think this goes without saying, and with the Patriots coming to town for a primetime showdown next Monday . . . it certainly looks like a grim task. We will have to summon the football gods of 2004 and maybe get some luck from a potential Gronk suspension to have a shot.

    2004, you remember that don't you:

    [​IMG]

    Another Monday night primetime game against these dudes and for one night, even during the midst of a losing season full of turmoil, we reigned supreme and put together one of the most memorable wins of the last 25 years for Dolfans. Maybe we need to dust off those orange unis and repeat history again.

    If we manage to win this game, then we are looking at playing a Bills team twice that could be starting Nathan Peterman and a reeling Chiefs team in their building. Certainly not gimme games but games that if we play like we played this Sunday, we can win.

    So let's not dwell much longer . . . we are going to assume a 9-7 record.

    What needs to happen:

    Miami at 9-7 would finish 2nd in the AFC east as the Bills could finish no better than 8-8 and a potental 9-7 Jets team would have 3 division losses while Miami would only have 2.

    Miami would also have or be tied for the best conference record in the AFC wildcard chase as they would be 8-4 in the AFC


    With the Jets and Bills eliminated from the equation, the teams Miami are contending against are: Patriots, Jags, Titans, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers.

    New England has already wrapped up the AFC East Division in a 9-7 scenario. That leaves 5 playoff spots for 9 teams.

    Pittsburgh is all but in at this point. 1 conference loss and 9 wins and they finish with the Browns at home. We are going to assume they take the division over Baltimore.

    I am also eliminating the Bengals . . . they just need 1 loss and they have road games @ Minny and @ Bmore. Plus already with 5 conference losses.

    That leaves 4 spots for 7 teams.

    When we beat the Chiefs in our 9-7 scenario . . . every team in the AFC West would have 5 losses in conference at minimum. We would also have head to head of LAC and KC, but not Oakland, but Oaklands schedule of @ Phi, @ KC, @ LAC and vs. Dal . . . I feel comfortable that they won't finish better than 2-2, keeping them at 8 wins. So between Chiefs and Chargers, one wins the division the other one is lesser in a tiebreak than us.

    So now that leaves 3 spots for 4 teams

    This is where it becomes challenging to get in

    Miami, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Baltimore are left. Either Jacksonville or Tennessee will win the AFC South so truthfully its 2 spots for 3 teams but they play in the final game of the year so we will factor them both in for now.

    One of those 3 teams Miami is up against need to have a meltdown of some sort. Tennessee/Jacksonville are 3 games in front of Miami and Baltimore is 2 games in front of Miami.

    Jacksonville only has 2 conference losses so far . . . they are the team you hope wins that AFC South and puts Tennessee in the wildcard picture as they already have 4 conference losses . We also have the head to head against them.

    Baltimore we don't have that, but a 9-7 Baltimore team would have 5 conference losses so by default would lose the tiebreaker to Miami . . . IF another 9-7 team is in the picture.

    It is tricky because Baltimore going 2-2 and finishing 9-7 is absolutely possible . . . however Miami needs another 9-7 team in that scenario or Baltimore wins the tiebreak. Whether its Tennessee or Jacksonville, or even one of the AFC West teams . . . somebody has to finish 9-7, with Miami and Baltimore.

    Wrap Up

    So as far as this week goes this is what you should be rooting for (in order):

    Miami over NE (obviously the most important)
    Pitt over Baltimore
    Arizona over Tennessee
    Seattle over Jacksonville
    KC over Oakland
    Washington over Chargers
    Chicago over Cincinnati


    We got this!

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    Nice write up. What a crappy AFC when you are still alive at 5-7. Doesn't much matter. Keep betting the Patriots.
     
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  3. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    We're going all the way, baby.
     
  4. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP

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    lmmfao.....now for real, nice of you to take the time to write all that up even thought I can't see it happening. I believe that beating a horrible broncos team yesterday have "some" people believing on this team again. How many times have we fallen for this in the past? Sorry but not this time. The team doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point. Beat NE and then we can start dreaming but beating Denver won't change my opinion or that of many others

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  5. BlueFin

    BlueFin Seer of Visions Finheaven VIP

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    It could happen.......may not be likely....one game at a time.

    Play like madmen at home against the Patsies....nothing to lose madness!
     
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  6. mrbunglez

    mrbunglez Reading Is Fundamental Donator

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    I think the only other 2 games this team has a chance of winning is one of the Bills games and KC. Even then I wouldn’t be surprised getting swept by the Bills and KC beating this team. This team doesn’t have the firepower to win out.
     
  7. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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  8. phins_4_ever

    phins_4_ever E12 FH Tailgate Gang Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Did you all not read the first sentence?
    This is not about what this team can't or won't do. It is a discussion about a playoff scenario as long as we are not mathematically eliminated. It is a fun thread. There are plenty of "fun threads" about how we should tank the season and that we are the worst team in the NFL etc. Join those.

    Yesterday at our "Finheaven" tailgate a Dolphins fan from overseas joined us (member at Finheaven). He scheduled his vacation around that one single home game he could watch. His eyes were glowing before the game and especially after the game. He loved it all: the tailgating, the stadium, the game, the win and we both agreed as a fan you never give up. No matter how remote the possibility or how minuscule the chance as long as we are not eliminated mathematically a fan always has that calculator in the back pocket.
     
  9. phins_4_ever

    phins_4_ever E12 FH Tailgate Gang Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    well done Dawg. Hope there is another update next Monday.
     
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  10. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    Technically alive but in looking at the requirements it can't be above 1%. That's probably being generous. The odds on the Dolphins winning out would be in the 40/1 range all by itself. We're going to be an underdog each of the next three games and this week it begins with +11.5 currently against the Patriots. That equates to a money line win likelihood of maybe 17% if I'm again being generous. Then roll that over with additional plus numbers at Kansas City and Buffalo. The Chiefs may be playing poorly but their power rating remains considerably above the Dolphins'. So even if we use an extremely low estimate of 3.5 point underdogs at Kansas City, then that's a 35% opportunity. So forth and so forth. Too much burden when every outcome has to be a victory and margin for error is gone. Even if we got hot and the opponents collapsed, resulting in wildly altered odds week to week, then the 40/1 still can't dip much lower than 25/1. The Dolphins aren't going to be cruising into Kansas City and Buffalo as decisive road chalk.

    Let's put it this way...even if we were Even money in each of the 4 remaining games then it's theoretically 1 chance in 16. Yet we start out as dramatically worse than Even money in the opening flip.

    And none of that begins to account for all the bizarre series of events required elsewhere, even if the Dolphins somehow overcame the 40/1. The AFC looked weak at midseason but that has quietly normalized, which was the logical favorite all along. If you took a couple of victories apiece away from the Titans and Jaguars, and if we owned the tiebreaker against the Ravens instead of the other way around, then I'd be willing to listen just a little bit. But owning a good sense of math and probability I'll continue to root for the Dolphins while recognizing that our -1.7 YPPA Differential at third worst in the league aligns with a very weak team, and one that can't overcome 40/1 or wiggle through a maze toward the playoffs.
     
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  11. SkapePhin

    SkapePhin Rump Shaker Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I was at that 2004 game, but I missed the wild comeback because my friend was coming down with a cold and it was unusually cold that night. I just remember walking out into the parking lot and hearing a huge roar and I knew the comeback was on. Flipped on the radio in the car and listened to the win on the way out. Great game.
     
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  12. Daytona Fin

    Daytona Fin Burn the Jolly Roger Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    So you're telling me I am not getting a division champs hat this year?
     
  13. CorduroyG

    CorduroyG Rookie

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    if we just would have beaten the crappy bucs at home we'd be right in the thick of it. as of now it would take a miracle.
     
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  14. mrbunglez

    mrbunglez Reading Is Fundamental Donator

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    I love when people say there’s a right and wrong way to be a fan.
     
  15. phins_4_ever

    phins_4_ever E12 FH Tailgate Gang Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Good lordy. Really?
     
  16. DuderinoN703

    DuderinoN703 We? What the **** we? Finheaven VIP Donator

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    May be possible but there’s a better chance of me banging Paige Spiranac.

    I’m in.
     
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  17. SkapePhin

    SkapePhin Rump Shaker Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I think with a healthy Tannehill the Dolphins sweep the Jets, beat Oakland and TB. Would have been in good position for WC race.
     
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  18. phins_4_ever

    phins_4_ever E12 FH Tailgate Gang Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    There is no right way or a wrong way of being a fan. There is only fan or no fan.
     
  19. Danny68

    Danny68 Dolphins on 3! Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Right now, THIS FAN, just wants our Fins to kick Tom Brady and the Pats asses, up and down Hard Rock Stadium!
    I’ll be there screaming my butt off!:D
     
  20. fishfanmiami

    fishfanmiami Have you seen junior's grades ? Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Have a blast Danny :thumbsup
     
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  21. mfish41

    mfish41 It is what it is Donator

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    I'm usually team optimistic, but the Broncos are miserable this year. Beat NE in primetime and then we could run through playoff scenarios
     
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  22. lynx

    lynx Well-Known Member

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    Awesome write up. Man, that game against the Bucs has come back to haunt us!
     
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  23. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    Great job Kdawg!

    I love the enthusiasm. I'm obviously hoping your scenario plays out, but share your skepticism that it will. Still, "it ain't over till it's over." as they say.

    I'm going to take it one game at a time, not stress, and any more wins we get I'm treating as a bonus. If we go 8-8 I'll consider that a moral victory as Gase will still not have a losing season. If we don't make it to 8 wins, meh, I'm prepared for that already.

    We found some good things in this season, Tankersley has potential, X. Howard finally showed off his ball skills, Jesse Davis was a pleasant surprise, Kenny Stills looks like a committed and talented guy, TJ McDonald is a nice addition for a year, and I have faith in McMillan when he gets healthy. At this point, the Dolphins can't hurt me anymore, unless we find another dysfunctional coach or something, which I'm not expecting to happen.

    So Belichick? Brady? Surely one of those guys retires before 2020, right?
     
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  24. Dolph N.Fan

    Dolph N.Fan A True Fan

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    NFL is WWE. Steelers get away with so many cheap shots and bogus penalties that benefit them that it’s sickening. Just replace New England for Pittsburgh and Miami for Cincinnati and it’s the same crap we have to put up with twice year.
     
  25. Ren

    Ren Rookie

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    So much this!!!
     
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  26. royalshank

    royalshank Practice Squad All-Pro Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Be awesome.

    I really don’t see the Pats losing another game all the way through to the SB this year.
     
  27. Heisenphin

    Heisenphin formally known as CANEPHINS

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    Ok, we know how bad we are but I decided to look at the playoff standings. Hell if we don't have a good shot at making it if we make it to 8-8. We hold the tie breaker in head to head over the Chargers and Raiders who are ahead of us, play the Chiefs and still have 2 vs the Bills. Win those last 3 and will have a distinct advantage in head to head tie breakers. Where it could get murky is in a 3 team tie or more. Still....there is a chance given how bad we really are and that is pretty amazing.

    http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture
     
  28. finmann

    finmann Pro Bowler

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    Not this year..........sorry. The Chiefs have struggled but they are still a better football team by far, don't see a win there. As for the Bills, no way we sweep them, I am more willing to believe they sweep us.
     
  29. Dolphins512

    Dolphins512 My Friends Call Me Bob Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If we manage a win Monday night, then I think it is fair to look at this with 3 games left that are tough....but we should have a shot in them. But if we can't beat New England Monday night, there is no possibility.

    I think a more likely finishing record for us is 7-9 or 6-10.
     
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  30. Mike8272

    Mike8272 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Problem I see with our chances is the teams currently in 5th and 6th should finish at least 9-7:

    Jaguars are currently 8-4 and have to play the Seahawks, Texans, @49ers, @Titans. I honestly don’t see them losing all four games, they should beat at least the 49ers and have a good chance of winning the other games.

    Ravens are currently 7-5 and have to play @Steelers, @Browns, Colts, Bengals. Like the above I don’t see them losing all their remaining games. I think they’ll probably win their last three games and fall to the Steelers, but they could win out.

    Essentially I see the Jaguars and Ravens finishing with at least 9 wins, though likely more than that. So while us finishing the season 9-7 would be a positive considering the challenges and ups and downs this team has had this season, I honestly don’t see us getting into the wild card spot with 9 wins unless the Jaguars or Ravens, and the other teams around us fall apart.
     
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  31. Dolphins81

    Dolphins81 Well-Known Member

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    Not happening! The delusion of this team making the playoffs will set you up for heartbreak. Us beating Denver is meaningless. They are even worse than us; I’m happy to see VJ fail, I knew he would.
     
  32. Dolphins81

    Dolphins81 Well-Known Member

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    We won’t make the playoffs. Turns out Denver is really really bad. Us beating a bad team doesn’t mean that we will win out. Now if Tyrod Taylor is out, we should beat Buffalo possibly both times. However, don’t fool yourself to think that even though KC has fallen that they would lose to us. Then there is the Cheaters Monday night. Have you forgotten how we play on for primetime? They are going to win even without Gronk. All we did by beating Denver is give false hope and **** up our draft spot.
     
  33. Dolphins81

    Dolphins81 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t either but if they make it to the SB, I want to see them get embarrassed.
     
  34. royalshank

    royalshank Practice Squad All-Pro Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Unfortunately I think they win again. Pathetic that no one else can field a team.
     
  35. Ren

    Ren Rookie

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    Quality of football league with is just bad this year. NE is winning because they suck less than everyone else.
     
  36. SwissPhins

    SwissPhins FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Funny how we talked exactly about that topic at FinHeaven Tailgate. And yes, even though the scenario above seems highly unlikely I will be rooting for it as long as it is possible. Offseason is long enough. So lets go beat the Patriots! :)

    Looking forward to the next time. :) I loved it that much that I maybe need to come back next year. ;) Was a great experience.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017 at 10:31 AM
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  37. Hamhocs

    Hamhocs Well-Known Member

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  38. Serik

    Serik Well-Known Member

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    I can actually see these scenarios playing out- even beating the Pats at home.
    The help from the other teams is where we always fall short luck wise as Dolphin fans- but damn it would be nice to slide into the playoffs after the year we have had.

    We would probably have to play the Ravens in the first game if it did happen. oops
     
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  39. phins_4_ever

    phins_4_ever E12 FH Tailgate Gang Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Was nice meeting you as well.
     
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  40. steveo style

    steveo style Scout Team Donator

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    So this went pretty well for us today
     

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