2017 NFL Draft: Prospects vs. Hype

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Purpose of this thread is quite simple, get straight to the point about prospects you're not as high on as the hype might suggest you should be. Maybe you just don't see it. You just don't see what all the hype is about.

Or perhaps you like a player, just not quite as high as they're projected. Simple as that.

For me, two stick out right now.

The first is Connor Williams. I've watched...and watched...and watched...and watched...

I just don't see it. I simply can't understand what makes him so special. I've listened to talk about this kid and how dominant he is for 2 years. I've heard it said more than once that he's the best left tackle prospect they've seen in years. He ain't the best one I've seen.

Next...Calvin Ridley. Don't get me wrong, I love Calvin Ridley. One of the best I've seen at tracking the ball downfield running full speed. Exceptional route runner. However, I don't ever hear his weakness discussed. His age is a factor...will be on the older side for a rookie.

Elusive? Absolutely. But he's not physical at all after the catch. Can't fight his way out of a wet paper sack. My issue isn't that Ridley is a fine player, he is. My issue is that he's been projected as a top 10 pick. I don't like him that high. You have to be physical after the catch in the NFL to be an elite receiver for a long time.

Honorable mention here is Baker Mayfield.

I see him being guaranteed by league insiders like Adam Schefter as a lock 1st round pick. I believe it. I'd put his odds at about 65% of coming off the board in the 1st round. I couldn't pull the trigger that early on him though.

It's not necessarily about whether or not he can play at the next level. He can. The issues for me are maturity, decision making, impulse control, and what his values are.

In the NFL, your 1st round pick on a QB you perceive to be your franchise quarterback comes down to a lot more than putting up statistics that earn escalators.

In a business like the NFL, your quarterback has to be the CEO of your team, for many reasons. I can't see Baker Mayfield being ready for that type of responsibility yet. He might end up being ready for that and all that comes with it. But I'm not sold on it. Which is why I can't take him that high.

I'd be interested to hear some prospects that some of you draft posters may be a little apprehensive on for your own reasons.

 

[jim1]

Dallas Goedert- small school issues but as to hands and athletic ability:

 

[Snoop]

Derwin James

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Ridley is a good call. I like him more as a 2nd/3rd.

I've seen Deon Cain rated ahead of guys like Sutton and DJ Moore, and I don't get that. He can stretch the field, but I don't see a complete WR or a natural catcher.

Saquon Barkely - The combination of wear-and-tear on RB's, Barkley's iffy instincts, and his proclivity to leave yards on the field (you brought this up months ago), keep him out of that range. That said, Gurley is the only RB I've liked in the Top 10 over the last few years.

Mike McGlinchey - Has a weird frame, and his base leaves a lot to be desired. He's a good player, and I like him fine, but top-10 talk doesn't make any sense to me. It's not as though he hasn't had his share of struggles this year, and he's an older player, who looks nothing like what you expect a Pro Bowl or All Pro OT to look like.

Christian Wilkins - Good-looking athlete and player, but I think he's more of a complimentary player than a star, and (as I've learned the hard way) athleticism is overrated for DT's. Many have him in the top 10-15 range, and I think that's too much projection for such a premium slot.

Josh Rosen - Had his best year, but I think a top-10 pick is rich for a guy who has never shown that he can take care of the ball or consistently move the chains and score points. He's also a limited athlete. To use a basketball analogy, Rosen is a streak shooter that people are treating like Ray Allen or Clay Thompson. He's more like a Vernon Maxwell.

Sam Hubbard - Don't see the freak athlete he's billed to be, and he never eclipsed his freshman production, which is a red flag to me. He's strong and certainly somewhat athletic, but he's not someone I like early.

Jerome Baker - Great speed, and his highlights look great, but it seems that Baker is late to react on almost every play. I think he should return to OSU. Maybe it's as simple as him needing to take the film room more seriously. If that's the case, the upside is still there, but he's a meh burger at this stage.

TaVarus McFadden - His length is exactly what you want, and his speed looks at least good enough, but he can struggle to find the ball, and he has little interest in tackling. I don't see a complete player, a shutdown CB, or even a player with high energy/intensity. T. White (who you were really high on) is a good example of a guy who is not going to match up and win in man coverage against elite NFL WR's, but he's EXCELLENT in zone, and he's a complete, instinctive player.

 

[ckparrothead]

This is a lovely thread idea.

I'm reading your note on Connor Williams and thinking to myself, "Really??"

The funny thing is the "hype" part of the equation is missing, for me. I guess I don't run in the right circles but I certainly haven't been hearing about the guy for years. I've barely heard of him this year except for seeing that he's generally placed somewhere around the 1st round. I'd never even watched him until yesterday, honest truth. I've watched Orlando Brown and Mike McGlinchey. I've watched Brandon Parker, Joe Noteboom, Crosby, Cole Madison, Braden Smith, even a little bit of Alex Cappa. I have a lot of respect for Zeus Jr, by the way.

But I have to tell you, yesterday when I watched Connor Williams for the first time, the West Virginia game, I'm probably only a dozen plays in and I'm thinking to myself wow this guy could/should be the best tackle in this draft, LOL.

I found myself immediately falling in love with how he sits in his stance. I remember when I went to Shrine practice, I'd not seen Rodger Saffold play football at Indiana before, but I went to Shrine practices and got a look at him up close, and right away just him sitting in his stance was a very striking thing for me. Connor Williams impacts me the same that way.

Great lower half, fit build. The big criticism here is obviously he doesn't have long arms. A bit Joe Thomas-ish with the build.

But watching him play, he's much more Joe Staley than Joe Thomas.

He certainly plays with a proper attitude. Even the critics would probably have to hand him that one. I guess I could sort of imagine though how the explicit attitude with which he plays could get really exaggerated by the spin cycle and turned into something more than it is. Again you have to understand I pay little enough attention that I'd barely heard of Connor Williams until I watched him yesterday so I'm coming from a different place. The attitude is a pretty nice plus.

Pretty experienced with vertical setting, and has a nice kick slide. Pass pro for him is going to generally be really nice because he bends so well, sits so low, has great balance and mirror action with his feet. What I wonder though is what happens when he's up against a titan, to where that stuff isn't enough. Will his short arms and lack of effective punch make him ineffective against true Monstars?

Obviously not a guy that has a lot of experience putting his hand in the ground and knocking somebody's dick in the dirt.

Perhaps the difference between us here is that one of us has heard the player hyped as like a potential #1 overall and the other only just heard of him this week, lol.

 

[ckparrothead]

I am with you on Calvin Ridley. He's a good player. But is he a GREAT player? The things I hear about him make him out to be a GREAT player and I don't think he is.

I think Christian Kirk, as a wide receiver of comparable size and speed, is closer to being a great player. I think he's worth the hype and even though Miami has assets at this position, I can't complain if they take Kirk.

I'm glad someone else isn't all-in on Christian Wilkins. He's a wonderful player and watching him play you can certainly see how he's right in there with a Muhammad Wilkerson or Sheldon Richardson. But is he more than that? Is he going to be an Aaron Donald, Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh, or Geno Atkins? I don't see that. He doesn't even necessarily show the traits that made Kawann Short so attractive, though Wilkins clearly has the athleticism advantage there.

I am also with j-off-her-doll with Mike McGlinchey. He's my version of Connor Williams for Slimm. I *have* actually heard of McGlinchey quite a bit, and every time I watched him I was disappointed. And man did he get his arse handed to him by the Hurricanes. Quenton Nelson held his own that game, and surprisingly so did their right tackle against Chad Thomas, even though I've seen that same right tackle get his own arse handed to him by some other players (Lorenzo Carter if I remember right). Just not feeling it with McGlinchey.

I would take the other side of the bet from j-off-her-doll on Tarvarus McFadden. I definitely see the weaknesses. There are some instances where he doesn't find the ball in the air (probably the toughest thing for a corner to do in deep man coverage). But I just love his combination of frame, arm length, speed, and hips so much. He's like Cordrea Tankersley with better hips. I think he's going to be taught to be an excellent pro.

I think a quarterback I would choose to say has been hyped too much is Mason Rudolph of Oklahoma State. I think he's a statue in the pocket, and as far as those statues go, he doesn't have the cartoon-ish arm talent to make up for it. I just don't want to bet on a guy coming into the NFL unable to make a lot of plays with his feet or arm. He seems to be hyped on the basis of a combination size and efficiency. But the size only interests me if you've got unusual feet for your size, which he doesn't, and on the contrary that size usually comes with a cannon arm which he doesn't have either. The ridiculous efficiency impresses me if you're running an offense that transposes pretty well from Saturday to Sunday, and that's not really the case with Rudolph. You're just left with a bit of a middle of the road guy that some people keep hyping for the "traits" whatever they've chosen that to mean. I mean, I would draft him, but there are definitely guys I want first.

As I've been saying for a long time, the only thing Mason Rudolph does better than Baker Mayfield is reach the cereal box on the top shelf. Well, that and not get in trouble with the authorities, which I guess is Slimm's point about Baker. But much as I felt about Jameis Winston, what matters is how the players that are up close with the guy react to and around him, how they feel about him as a leader, and whether he's studious or not. I've heard, and I don't know if I can trust it but it's what I've heard, that Baker "studies his ass off". I can't know more than that until I have a coach much smarter than me sit in a room with him and pepper him with questions. What I do know is that the players around him react to him in ways that I like. And he's one hell of a play maker. He can make plays and hurt defenses. And he's got that really cool quality where he can just set up and throw a football and have it go to the right spot over and over and over again. I think he's worth the hype. Unless he's an addict, like Manziel. I've heard no tales of that.

As much as Bradley Chubb is hyped, he's worth every bit of it.

And Vita Vea is another guy that has been hyped for a multi-year span, and yet every time I watch him I think, yup, this is why he's well hyped. He's just a legit player at that position.

 

[Carne Asada]

I've come to the idea a will who can cover the Gronks of the world is probably our biggest need.

I've been looking at Jefferson and Smith, and I just can't see how some have Jefferson above Smith.

I'd put Jefferson in the mid second round. He runs fast and can tackle but instincts seem to be hit and miss and while he's fast he's no where near as good in coverage as Roquon... AND not as fast either way.

While he's bigger, Roquon disengages from blockers much better. Let's say that while both need to be kept clean to be effective, Roquon is just much better at staying off blocks.

I guess as Texas disppointed so did their prospects.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I tend to agree with CK about Mason Rudolph. I've heard a lot of 1st round chatter about him and I just believe that's too high. I think he throws a great deep ball and looks the part physically. Produces. Rock Hill, SC kid and I'm familiar with that area...produces a lot of good football talent.

I have him as my top Senior quarterback because I feel like he's the cleanest, not because I believe he's going to be a great NFL quarterback.

I have Rudolph graded very similar to Nick Foles coming out of Arizona. That's his best comparison in my opinion. I see so many similarities.

McGlinchey is certainly being overrated. Pretty sure that one is unanimous. Might end up a decent NFL tackle but no way is he subject to be a great one like he's projected to go in the draft.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I tend to agree with CK about Mason Rudolph. I've heard a lot of 1st round chatter about him and I just believe that's too high. I think he throws a great deep ball and looks the part physically. Produces. Rock Hill, SC kid and I'm familiar with that area...produces a lot of good football talent.

I have him as my top Senior quarterback because I feel like he's the cleanest, not because I believe he's going to be a great NFL quarterback.

I have Rudolph graded very similar to Nick Foles coming out of Arizona. That's his best comparison in my opinion. I see so many similarities.

McGlinchey is certainly being overrated. Pretty sure that one is unanimous. Might end up a decent NFL tackle but no way is he subject to be a great one like he's projected to go in the draft.

He does look a lot like Foles. Great call. I'm thinking 3rd for Rudolph, but I'd rather get him in the 4th. Rookie 3rd/4th RD contract on a talented team, I think he can be enough, and I agree that he's pretty clean.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

This is a lovely thread idea.

I'm reading your note on Connor Williams and thinking to myself, "Really??"

The funny thing is the "hype" part of the equation is missing, for me. I guess I don't run in the right circles but I certainly haven't been hearing about the guy for years. I've barely heard of him this year except for seeing that he's generally placed somewhere around the 1st round. I'd never even watched him until yesterday, honest truth. I've watched Orlando Brown and Mike McGlinchey. I've watched Brandon Parker, Joe Noteboom, Crosby, Cole Madison, Braden Smith, even a little bit of Alex Cappa. I have a lot of respect for Zeus Jr, by the way.

But I have to tell you, yesterday when I watched Connor Williams for the first time, the West Virginia game, I'm probably only a dozen plays in and I'm thinking to myself wow this guy could/should be the best tackle in this draft, LOL.

I found myself immediately falling in love with how he sits in his stance. I remember when I went to Shrine practice, I'd not seen Rodger Saffold play football at Indiana before, but I went to Shrine practices and got a look at him up close, and right away just him sitting in his stance was a very striking thing for me. Connor Williams impacts me the same that way.

Great lower half, fit build. The big criticism here is obviously he doesn't have long arms. A bit Joe Thomas-ish with the build.

But watching him play, he's much more Joe Staley than Joe Thomas.

He certainly plays with a proper attitude. Even the critics would probably have to hand him that one. I guess I could sort of imagine though how the explicit attitude with which he plays could get really exaggerated by the spin cycle and turned into something more than it is. Again you have to understand I pay little enough attention that I'd barely heard of Connor Williams until I watched him yesterday so I'm coming from a different place. The attitude is a pretty nice plus.

Pretty experienced with vertical setting, and has a nice kick slide. Pass pro for him is going to generally be really nice because he bends so well, sits so low, has great balance and mirror action with his feet. What I wonder though is what happens when he's up against a titan, to where that stuff isn't enough. Will his short arms and lack of effective punch make him ineffective against true Monstars?

Obviously not a guy that has a lot of experience putting his hand in the ground and knocking somebody's **** in the dirt.

Perhaps the difference between us here is that one of us has heard the player hyped as like a potential #1 overall and the other only just heard of him this week, lol.

The West Virginia game was his first game back from injury and he did play decent in my opinion. However, the next week against Texas Tech was probably some of the worst I've seen an offensive lineman play this year. He was awful.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I am with you on Calvin Ridley. He's a good player. But is he a GREAT player? The things I hear about him make him out to be a GREAT player and I don't think he is.

I think Christian Kirk, as a wide receiver of comparable size and speed, is closer to being a great player. I think he's worth the hype and even though Miami has assets at this position, I can't complain if they take Kirk.

I'm glad someone else isn't all-in on Christian Wilkins. He's a wonderful player and watching him play you can certainly see how he's right in there with a Muhammad Wilkerson or Sheldon Richardson. But is he more than that? Is he going to be an Aaron Donald, Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh, or Geno Atkins? I don't see that. He doesn't even necessarily show the traits that made Kawann Short so attractive, though Wilkins clearly has the athleticism advantage there.

I am also with j-off-her-doll with Mike McGlinchey. He's my version of Connor Williams for Slimm. I *have* actually heard of McGlinchey quite a bit, and every time I watched him I was disappointed. And man did he get his arse handed to him by the Hurricanes. Quenton Nelson held his own that game, and surprisingly so did their right tackle against Chad Thomas, even though I've seen that same right tackle get his own arse handed to him by some other players (Lorenzo Carter if I remember right). Just not feeling it with McGlinchey.

I would take the other side of the bet from j-off-her-doll on Tarvarus McFadden. I definitely see the weaknesses. There are some instances where he doesn't find the ball in the air (probably the toughest thing for a corner to do in deep man coverage). But I just love his combination of frame, arm length, speed, and hips so much. He's like Cordrea Tankersley with better hips. I think he's going to be taught to be an excellent pro.

I think a quarterback I would choose to say has been hyped too much is Mason Rudolph of Oklahoma State. I think he's a statue in the pocket, and as far as those statues go, he doesn't have the cartoon-ish arm talent to make up for it. I just don't want to bet on a guy coming into the NFL unable to make a lot of plays with his feet or arm. He seems to be hyped on the basis of a combination size and efficiency. But the size only interests me if you've got unusual feet for your size, which he doesn't, and on the contrary that size usually comes with a cannon arm which he doesn't have either. The ridiculous efficiency impresses me if you're running an offense that transposes pretty well from Saturday to Sunday, and that's not really the case with Rudolph. You're just left with a bit of a middle of the road guy that some people keep hyping for the "traits" whatever they've chosen that to mean. I mean, I would draft him, but there are definitely guys I want first.

As I've been saying for a long time, the only thing Mason Rudolph does better than Baker Mayfield is reach the cereal box on the top shelf. Well, that and not get in trouble with the authorities, which I guess is Slimm's point about Baker. But much as I felt about Jameis Winston, what matters is how the players that are up close with the guy react to and around him, how they feel about him as a leader, and whether he's studious or not. I've heard, and I don't know if I can trust it but it's what I've heard, that Baker "studies his *** off". I can't know more than that until I have a coach much smarter than me sit in a room with him and pepper him with questions. What I do know is that the players around him react to him in ways that I like. And he's one hell of a play maker. He can make plays and hurt defenses. And he's got that really cool quality where he can just set up and throw a football and have it go to the right spot over and over and over again. I think he's worth the hype. Unless he's an addict, like Manziel. I've heard no tales of that.

As much as Bradley Chubb is hyped, he's worth every bit of it.

And Vita Vea is another guy that has been hyped for a multi-year span, and yet every time I watch him I think, yup, this is why he's well hyped. He's just a legit player at that position.

Hard to imagine Chubb outside the top 5. He's gone from really good to spectacular. The strength in his hands and hips really shine with his improved technique. His counters are effortless, and his instincts and motor are ideal.

 

[ckparrothead]

The West Virginia game was his first game back from injury and he did play decent in my opinion. However, the next week against Texas Tech was probably some of the worst I've seen an offensive lineman play this year. He was awful.

Oof. I'm afraid to look, then. LOL.

 

[ckparrothead]

That's a really good comparison, Mason Rudolph to Nick Foles.

 

[gregorygrant83]

One player I think is being underrated is Royce Freeman. I've heard he could be a 3rd or 4th round pick in a deep running back class if the suspected underclassmen turn pro. Freeman, 5'11 230 pounds and quick feet, would be the ideal tandem back to pair with a back like Kenyan Drake.

 

[ckparrothead]

Yes I agree on Royce Freeman. Been one of my favorites for a few years now, and he's held up well to the addition of more tape, the addition of more wear and tear.