A Metrics Breakdown of Patterson, Allen, Hopkins and Bailey

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by NUGap, Feb 4, 2013.

  1. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    Finally a breakdown that's more relevant to Dolphins fans than the QB one I just posted. I've stuck this on my site at (http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/04/tier1-wrs/), but I'm going to post a Dolphins-centric version here.

    Similar to the quarterbacks, I went through these player’s games and marked down a variety of factors. I noted where they caught the ball, how many yards they picked up after the catch and more. Statistics don’t tell the whole story, but now when someone tells you that a certain wide receiver is a beast at picking up yards after the catch – you’ll know better. For the purposes of this post, I’ve considered the top 4 wide receivers as Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson and Stedman Bailey (you’ll see why).

    Where Are They Catching the Ball?

    I promise this will be the only chart like the one in the QB post, the rest aren’t so similar. This represents what zones they caught the ball in, before yards after the catch. Unfortunately, I don’t have the exact routes or what side of the field they caught it on. That will have to wait until the next iteration of this.

    [​IMG]


    • Keenan Allen lives on the short passes. 63.3% of Allen’s passes were caught within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Only 3.33% of his passes were past 20 yards. A low for all WRs I looked at. This may not be a bad thing if his yards after the catch are good. I don't know if that's the playmaker that we want in Miami.
    • Stedman Bailey’s game consisted of a lot of screens. Unlike Keenan Allen though, we see a much more distributed catching range. 18% of his passes were caught in the 11-20 yard range with 10.5% deep catches. A great distribution for the Dolphins offense, someone who can catch the ball at all levels consistently and still make plays.
    • Surprisingly, Hopkins was a major deep threat. This surprised me because I thought of Hopkins as a guy who ran a lot of curls and mid-range outside routes. We see that 70% of his catches were past 6 yards. The highest in the major WRs for this class, excepting Terrance Williams.
    • Patterson’s numbers are just interesting. We don’t see many passes caught past 20 yards, but 33% of his passes were caught in the 11-20 yard range. It’s like he decided to ignore catching the ball in the screen and 20+ yard game and just catch intermediate passes.

    What’s Happening After the Catch?

    This chart represents the yards from the LOS that they caught the ball before YAC and then the yardage after the catch in the second bar.

    [​IMG]

    • DeAndre Hopkins shows us how much deeper he caught the ball than the others. On average he caught the ball 12 yards from the LOS, before YAC.
    • Stedman Bailey’s yards after the catch is great. In this class, most WRs YAC hovers around 5.3-5.5 yards. Bailey’s is the highest at 6.24. Even though 33% of his catches were screens, having good yard after the catch skills makes it worthwhile. This seems like he'd be a good fit for Miami's offense, a reason why I like him so much.
    • Allen’s numbers are not so superb. On average he caught the ball 4.57 yards from the LOS. This is 3 yards lower than the next wide receiver (Quinton Patton). Plus his yards after the catch is simply average. This scares me a bit for Miami's offense. We hear about the importance of a playmaker and yards after the catch, yet Allen wasn't making those plays in college? I understand the whole thing about Zach Maynard, but still I'd expect more.

    How Did Their Systems Help/Hurt Them?

    [​IMG]

    This one is going to require a little explaining. I didn’t just chart their catches, I charted every pass thrown to each wide receiver. In that, I was able to derive how often a QB targets his number one wide receiver and how often QBs miss their wide receiver. Thus I averaged out the percentage of targets, miss percentage, and average amount of throws per game, to give each WR the same amount of targets. Then I adjusted to see how their season numbers would have been, had they been in an average system

    • Patterson is helped by this the most, by far. First off, Tyler Bray was just bad in terms of missing his wide receivers. However, Patterson was also targeted far less than a normal number 1. Had he been targeted at the same rate, he would have gained 549 yards, for a season total of 1327 yards. There were certainly be no questions about his production with those numbers.
    • Bailey incidentally is hurt by this. This of course is due to the high powered passing offense of West Virginia. I don’t think this drops Bailey’s value at all, because he’d still have 1378 yards, but it shows you the influence of WV’s offense.
    • Hopkins numbers would be obscene with more targets. He’s looking at north of 1600 yards with more targets, this of course is due to his high average catch distance.
    • Allen's numbers remain mostly unchanged. This means in terms of targets and misses, Allen represents the average number 1 WR. I understand Maynard wasn't the best QB and it doesn't take into account sacks and whatnot, but it's a start.

    *One final note on all of this. I realize this is imperfect. Would Hopkins have been as much of a deep threat without Tajh Boyd? Thus if he had a different QB, would he have caught as many deep passes with more targets? Possibly. I’m trying to work on a way to solve this, but this is my first pass at the WRs.

    I didn't want to make it too long (people stop reading after 1000 words and multiple charts), so there is more data/ charts on the site, like red zone yardage, yardage by down, yardage by quarter and drop percentage. You can find that here:
    http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/04/tier1-wrs/

    EDIT: I'll be posting a Tier 2 one later, I've already got everything done for Wheaton, Williams, Patton and Hunter and that'll be up in a few days. I've been getting a lot of requests on some other places, so I'll probably also be doing Cobi Hamilton, Aaron Dobson, Robert Woods, and maybe one more.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 4, 2013
  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    All very interesting. The thing is with Hopkins, I'm not sure his lack of screens was coincidental. I don't find him all that compelling after the catch.

    Yet you have a similar issue with Cordarrelle Patterson. Lack of screen passes in the distribution. It would normally suggest Tennessee didn't trust Cordarrelle much with the ball in his hands after the catch. But even a cursory glance at his tape would show that theory to be silly because he was an absolute nightmare to defend with the ball in his hands.

    Just curious, do you have all this on spreadsheets somewhere? What did Cordarrelle Patterson gain on average per attempt on screen passes? I ask because in particular when you're looking to normalize everything with that final graph, the production that you would actually add into Cordarrelle's game would probably be the screen production, since that's really what he's missing.

    Unless, is that what you did?
     
  3. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    I'm looking at around 12 YPC (including YAC) on screens. For what it's worth, Justin Hunter ran screens around 10% of the time as well (and we're looking at 18% on average for the WRs I did). I'm not sure if it's the Tennessee offense or what? I aimed to get a 6-7 game sampling, or around 50% of their total catches, so the sampling should be accurate - but it could be off.

    I didn't normalize it, that was my initial thought. While not an overwhelming endorsement of myself, I wrote a program to collect data faster (graphic inputs, etc rather than just inputting directly into Excel), and it was really rough on the first iteration. Thus, with the WRs (my test group), the data is extremely difficult to sort through and it was almost impossible to pull the data to normalize. The data with the QBs was much better, which is why I was able to post it quicker than the WRs. So the short answer, no it's not normalized, but that would have been the way I would have gone.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    What I'm suggesting for instance is, take the following.

    Let's say you had 8 screen attempts thrown at Patterson. The QB missed 4 of the throws, he caught 4 of them and gained 60 yards. You had 30 non-screen attempts within 1 to 5 yards. The QB missed 10 of them, he caught 20 of them for 200 yards. You had 25 non-screen attempts within 6 to 10 yards. The QB missed 10 of them, he caught 15 of them for 200 yards. You had 33 attempts within 11 to 20 yards. The QB missed 20 of them, he caught 13 of them for 260 yards. Finally you had 4 attempts at 20+ yards, the QB missed 3 of them and Cordarrelle caught 1 for 60 yards.

    Let's say you calculate what you call "average" QB performance, and you come to believe that the average QB misses only 1 out of 8 screen throws, only 6 out of 30 throws at 1 to 5 yards, only 7 out of 25 at 6 to 10 yards, only 16 out of 33 at 11 to 20 yards, and only 2 out of 4 at 20+ yards.

    Let's say also that you calculate the "average" offensive pass distribution and realize that out of 100 pass attempts, notmally about 18 are screens, 25 are 1 to 5 yards, 23 are 6 to 10 yards, 21 are 11 to 20 yards, and 13 are 20+ yards.

    If you were to adjust Cordarrelle's production to an average passer in an average offense, you would be adjusting his yardage total from 780 yards to 1263 yards, without increasing his workload.

    See what I mean?

    ---------- Post added at 04:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:36 PM ----------

    What do you mean by graphic inputs?
     
  5. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I know what you're saying, and it makes sense. Now that I think about it, I could actually use the data from the QBs I did last year/ this year to do it. I was only thinking about it in terms of using my data from the QBs of the WRs. I may go through and work on that, it wouldn't be too hard since my QB data is pretty easy to use.

    That sounded fancier than I meant it to sound. I just meant instead of typing my data directly into excel boxes (like I did slowly last year), I wrote a basic program using button inputs, text boxes, clicking on the yard line rather than entering it with numbers. Just made it faster. But the way it wrote to excel was pretty bad initially, so the data is hard to parse.
     
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Oh ok. Well, if you're going to come up with some sort of normalization that involves hypothesizing how all receivers would've produced had they gotten the same distribution of passes and the same number of attempts their direction with the same quality of QB throwing to them (in terms of "misses") then I think it would be a worthwhile venture. You seem to have already done a mass amount of the legwork. The rest seems just formula stuff.
     
  7. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Fascinating. I think it confirms my feelings on Allen and why I'm not pushing for us to pick him . In his defence, YAC from a screen or short pass is almost certainly harder won than YAC in space down field.

    It also helps support the theory that Bailey and Hopkins would be the two "instant" contributors, as opposed to say Patterson. Really interesting stuff and so much more could be inferred from it with a little more work from your serious raw data.

    Great work.
     
  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Curious to know what your rationale is for that.
     
  9. Blake the great

    Blake the great A True Fan

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    Great work man! very interesting stuff. I know its still early in the draft process but I just dont see us taking such a raw WR such as Patterson at #12. I think we go with the best pass rusher available or best DB available. In some drafts WR's are flying off the shelf being selected too early, and other years a WR wont be selected till the 2nd round. I think this years first round is going to be a lot of WR's taken in the mid-late 1st round. All four of the guys used in the metric break down could go in the 1st round, even Terrance Williams and Justin Hunter. And if teams start picking WR's then Miami needs to trade up back into the first and grab one. I would like to draft one of these guys later in the first or 2nd round
     
  10. MiamiMuss

    MiamiMuss A True Fan

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    Great stats and thanks for the time you have put in...I would love to see Allen and Hopkins get drafted by Miami this year.
     
  11. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    Great read. Thanks.
     
  12. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Great breakdown! I really like Bailey and Hopkins...would go nuts if we could get both.

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
     
  13. Kevlared

    Kevlared Well-Known Member

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    great stuff. would still like to see what allen could do with a competent quarterback and another WR to prevent defenses from doubling and in stanford's case, triple covering him. When you look at bailey, he has austin across from him. when you look at patterson, he has hunter across from him. when you look across at the other WR from allen, he has a guy named chris harper. maynard is also one of the worst Qb's i've ever seen in my life, and that's not an exaggeration.

    and to the OP, the last chart. allen actually had 737 yards this year. so with avg qb, he would have 245 more yards?
     
  14. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    Forgot to mention that, I just projected Allen out based on his season numbers as if he had played 12 games so he could be compared with the others.
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    What did Hopkins gain per catch on screens?
     
  16. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I'm too busy at work right now to respond, but I'll get back to you!
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    No worries. Just genuinely curious.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I think Markus Wheaton is going to have to end up in this "top tier" study. Same with Terrance Williams.

    I think Cordarrelle Patterson will solidify himself as a top level prospect and may even go top 10 above where Miami is picking. I think the other guy that will sneak into the 1st round is Markus Wheaton who showed at the Senior Bowl that you wouldn't be remiss in thinking of him as another Santonio Holmes, only with DeSean Jackson's pure speed and (we hope) a better overall attitude.

    It's hard to say what will happen to Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins once they go to the Combine and show up as just sort of average athletes. Allen will be better than average once size is taken into consideration but I don't see him Julio Jonesing it up.

    Terrance Williams' pure combination of size, speed, ball skills and production should put a floor on his draft stock at around the mid-2nd round.

    Stedman Bailey remains a wildcard. As does Quinton Patton. A stronger than expected showing at the Combine from either player could vault them very high, but a weaker showing could propel either player into the 3rd round.
     
  19. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    very well done...but there's zero doubt in my mind that keenan allen would have done much more damage down the field had he had a competent qb throwing the ball to him...so i think that really needs to be taken into consideration here...that cal qb was awful...probably don't call as many routes down the field either when the guy can't throw the ball in the ocean...
     
  20. foozool13

    foozool13 #12 #13 #23 #29 #54 #99 Donator

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    Nice post. Well done.
     
  21. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I'm really hoping that Wheaton is at least available at 42.
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    After the Senior Bowl he had, I'm really not sure you can count on that.

    Drafting a wide receiver is a necessary evil.

    It's necessary because, as we saw in the Super Bowl and all throughout the playoffs, you need guys that can make plays for your quarterback. When you don't have those guys you're dead in the water. No matter what anyone says you can't get by with marginal talent and "savvy" at the position. You need play makers. On a 3rd & Short the coverage dictates Joe Flacco go one-on-one to the outside with Boldin and he throws up a 50/50 ball that Boldin comes down with. When the Giants win the Super Bowl against the Patriots last year, it's on a Mario Manningham catch that Eli Manning had no business throwing based on the coverage, but he trusted Manningham to make a play for him, and he did. When the Cardinals come back on the Steelers it's Larry Fitzgerald being ridiculous. And when the Steelers somehow come back on the Cardinals at the very end, it's a beautiful Santonio Holmes fingertip-to-toetip play in the end zone.

    But it's also evil...because when you look at the straight percentages, it's flat out daunting. So many of the guys we're talking about and getting excited about will amount to NOTHING at the next level. It's just a fact of the draft. So because it's so inherently risky, teams try and take risk off the board any way they can. Being an incredible athlete from a size/speed standpoint takes risk off the board. A guy is usually going to be at least SOMETHING when he's an incredible athlete. But pure speed and agility also takes risk off the board because you know if you teach the guy right he's going to be able to separate.

    What I'm getting at is Markus Wheaton with his pure speed and agility, both of which he showed at Oregon State and then he showed against higher caliber competition at the Senior Bowl, makes him a relatively safe guy. Not all guys with his speed and agility have had the chances he's had to show that he's a safe prospect, but one way or another he's gotten those chances and he's taken them...so I think of him as a relatively safe bet. And if he's a relatively safe bet then teams trying to take risk off the board are going to steer toward him, IMO.
     
  23. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I was initially drawn to Wheaton by his ability to separate. I can't find anything in your post that I take issue with. Things change when money is involved, but I get good vibes fro Wheaton when I hear him speak. He seems like a pretty grounded guy, who works hard and isn't afraid to acknowledge areas in his game that need improvement.
     
  24. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    titus young looked more rediculously explosive to me at the senior bowl than wheaton but that kid had a ton of skeletons in his closet which hurt him...i don't think wheatons gonna have the same issues...still there's a ton of underclassmen wrs who i think will be viewed higher than wheaton in nfl circles...i'd feel pretty confident he gets to #42 personally...
     
  25. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    This is going to seem like a joke, but 1.66 yards/ screen catch.

    For kicks and grins:

    Allen: 6.33 yards/ screen
    Bailey: 8 yards/ screen
     
  26. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I don't think Hopkins is any C. Patterson, but I think that number might be a little misleading. For whatever reason, every single screen I saw thrown to Hopkins never had a chance. He has defenders at his ankles by the time - if not before - he secures the ball. Every time. I like Hopkins. I think he's one of the most QB-friendly WR prospects in the draft. He runs good routes, and he fights for the ball. Looking at him, his arms look longer than your average 6'1 guys arms. He plays more like a 6'3 guy with the ball in the air. I don't think his RAC is solid, but in this offense, I see him playing a J. Nelson role. Not as big or strong as Nelson, but he plays like he is, and he's a much better at creating separating. Above all, I think Hopkins is a natural WR. Plays with great balance, so he's always in position to make a play on the ball. I'll be curious to see what the combine does to his stock.

    I noticed with both Hopkins and Wheaton that each consistently gets behind the D, and each player's QB consistently under throws him. What I like, though, is that both fight back for the ball and often make contested catches. I think it's very easy for a young WR to get frustrated on plays like that. Easy to make a halfhearted attempt to break up an INT and say, "Man, I was open, but you were late on the throw." You don't get any of that with these guys. Both look to maximize each play. On Wheaton, you can see him ducking his head and fighting forward for a few extra yards.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I'm gonna consider that one a theory confirmed. ;)

    ---------- Post added at 02:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:52 PM ----------

    I'm generally skeptical of wide receivers that make their living "getting behind defenses" and catching deeper passes, when they don't actually have much speed.
     
  28. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Great post.
     
  29. isaacjunk

    isaacjunk FinHeaven VIP

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  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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  31. Twitches Brew

    Twitches Brew A True Fan

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    Wow, ck, that list is telling.

    And just wanted to say that this is one of the best FH threads I've read in a long while. :snack: :thanks:
     
  32. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx A True Fan

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    Like Patterson or not, I cant see philbin signing off on a guy who catches with his body. Even if you look at the last two WRs we drafted, the one thing that stood out is they catch with there hands and lock the ball up quickly.

    Catching is a big part for philbins mold for WRs, even jordy Nelson couldn't get on the field for awhile because he was dropping it in practice.

    IMO that will be deciding factor in not drafting Patterson. Especially with the amount of timing patters along the way tannehill really rips it, ball skills are incredibly important in this offense.
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    He only catches with his body when he needs to shield the ball from a defender. He's got very good natural hands and catches the football away from his body extremely well.
     
  34. Chubby

    Chubby SUPERFAN

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    But is Wheaton a realistic option for the Fins? Wouldnt the fins still need to find a #1 WR for Wheaton to compliment or are you thinking Wheaton alone can dominate our WR Core?
    Chubbs
     
  35. rembrandt

    rembrandt Member

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    This is pretty informative. Thanks for the excellent post. I am leaning towards the raw talent of Patterson at the moment.
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    People are too caught up in labels. If Markus Wheaton is Santonio Holmes with DeSean Jackson's long speed then you're damn thankful you have him and I don't give two ****s about whether someone in the media labels him #1, #2 or #45.
     
  37. Chubby

    Chubby SUPERFAN

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    Touché
     
  38. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx A True Fan

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    I know your a Patterson fan, and that's cool, but I strongly disagree that he has very good natural hands. It's why IMO, he constantly had 2-3 catches/ game. Qb and coordinators didn't trust his hands.
     
  39. isaacjunk

    isaacjunk FinHeaven VIP

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    Ouch! Thanks for that list.....I'm guessing trades have been more successful.....A la Brandon Marshall to the bears. I realize though that then you are investing picks and big money bc no one let's star players go in their rookie contract, but could it still be worth it for a much lower bust rate over drafting?

     
  40. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Nitpicking, but Danario Alexander was undeniably successful for the Bolts based on what he cost. You could make an argument that Sydney Rice should be in the last group too, but I can also buy your take on it.
     
  41. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Specifically, Danario Alexander didn't make it because he's had only one good year there, and that year only involved like 658 yards. Really only half of a good year. To me a really successful signing would be like saying that this guy is one of the better wide receivers in the National Football League period, because he's produced that well and that consistently. I think you can say that about Vincent Jackson and I think you can somewhat say it about Nate Washington because the consistency has been there, but either the consistency or the absolute production hasn't been there for all the other guys.

    And that includes Sidney Rice because the first year he was in Seattle, he was essentially a non-factor. He had a good year this year. But he doesn't go in undeniably successful category until he repeats that success specifically because of his no-show in 2011. For that reason I also put Pierre Garcon in that same category.

    ---------- Post added at 03:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:47 PM ----------

    That's really just not true, based on having seen almost every single pass thrown his way in 2012.
     
  42. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    On Cordarrelle Patterson's hands.

    This is a four-game sample of catches I consider to be physical because of contact either just before the ball comes in, during the catch, or just after the catch to where if the ball popped out it would've been an incomplete catch.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=0s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=31s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=54s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=102s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=127s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=146s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=432s

    Here are instances during those four games when he couldn't haul in the ball:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=6s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=87s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=452s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXqAtF1--M&feature=player_detailpage#t=569s

    I'm seeing a lot more of him hauling in those tough catches in traffic than not, and when he doesn't I usually see some reasons for that, that don't necessarily derive from him generally having a tough time catching the ball in traffic.

    As a bonus, this is not from the four-game study...and so I don't think you can take account of it from a percentage standpoint or anything like that, but here are some more physical catches:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=170s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=385s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=412s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=431s
     
  43. XxfeensterxX

    XxfeensterxX FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    CK, i've heard people say he catches the ball with his body to much which will lead to more drops at the NFL level. Whats your take on that opinion?
     
  44. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx A True Fan

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    Any catch he's asked to make with his back to the qb looks like a kid trying to catch the football with vasaline on his hands. These are not only god awful drops, there god awful attempts, where he doesn't look the least bit the natural wr people are claiming Jim to be.

    Tbh, from what I saw, most of his catches are the same few routes, at the same distances. Almost no variety in routes or where tue ball is coming from. That makes me incredibly worried when I see a athlete boxed in that way in college.

    I think Patterson is a FAR bigger project than people are want to admit w insane amounts of bust potential.
     
  45. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    This is an EXTREME exaggeration. You don't do well for your argument by falling into hyperbole.

    Listen. I've seen almost every catch and almost every attempt his direction. You can't run something by me hoping that I just haven't seen it and so I have to trust you. I've seen them all. I know what you're talking about.

    He had a drop on an over the shoulder attempt against Georgia. It was a bad one. He got open vertically against Branden Smith (who runs about 4.43), the ball dropped right into the bread basket, and he dropped it.

    He had another over the shoulder drop against Florida. He got open vertically against Purifoy (who runs about 4.42). But this time, the ball was slightly overthrown. He got a hand on it, but only one hand. If he'd dove, maybe. Just maybe. That would've been his only chance there. He chose to try and one-hand it instead and he couldn't haul it in.

    He had another over the shoulder drop on a wheel route against Vanderbilt. But this wasn't so much a drop as it was the defensive back jamming him up 8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which threw Cordarrelle's balance off and so he couldn't run under the ball because he got turned around and put into a back pedal. That made the ball slightly overthrown, which meant once again all he could do was get one hand on it.

    I believe he had one more over the shoulder type of drop...I want to say, against South Carolina. But I can't verify that one.

    What I can verify are a number of catches he made that you say he can't make.

    Like this one:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QypUGJch5yk&feature=player_detailpage#t=30s

    And this one:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=kGZVE1p6Q40#t=2s

    And this one:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE&feature=player_detailpage#t=170s

    But the reality is that this is simply one kind of catch. There are a number of kinds of catches a receiver can make. Criticizing his work on the over the shoulder passes is valid (when you don't exaggerate and give in to hyperbole) but it should be kept in perspective. We're talking in reality about 3 catches he didn't make that could be used to judge his catching ability on vertical passes. Maybe even only 2 catches, because that Florida drop was slightly overthrown. Meanwhile he's made other catches on other vertical balls.

    So while I would question the ability (as in, I don't know if it's an issue, or not) there isn't any way someone could be sure that it's an issue.
     
  46. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx A True Fan

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    Your pulling details into this convo that have nothing to do with the topic, but to sit here and say he has great hands and he's shown this in multiple facets of the game is ridiculous. I've watched everything you continue to mention.

    Yet you still seem to overlook a very simple fact. RARELY does he catch deep balls, and when often does he drops them. RARELY do you even see bray look at him deep. Why is that? It's because he can't run a lot of routes and make the catches.

    If he had good hands in multiple routes, he would be running those routes and catching a larger variety of passes, but he doesn't, because he cant. And thats why you mostly see 2-3 catch games from him throughout college.

    When you watch guys like patton, Bailey, Allen, there all over the field, running a million of different routes, and sealing the ball up on almost all of them. Patterson, not so much, IMO the biggest reason for that, is his hands. With his athletic ability, he could learn to run other routes, but if he can't catch running them, what's the point?
     
  47. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    I've stayed out of this conversation, because there's so many other things to talk about with Patterson than this one attribute. But, dude, you can't use Allen as an example of catching balls all over the field when he's the only receiver who caught less deep balls than Patterson and had a worse distribution of catches across the field than Patterson. To be fair, I have Patterson's "average drop yardage" at 27 yards. Which is to say, yes he dropped some deep balls - but he didn't drop them really anywhere else. If you only have to coach a guy on how to catch this one specific pass, you're not in bad shape.
     
  48. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    There's a LOT wrong with this post.

    1. Are you actually arguing against details? Who needs facts when you've got a good opinion (based on nothing)? Is that what this has become?

    2. Rarely does he catch deep passes? I just linked you three of them. I agree with you that he wasn't often targeted deep but your reason for that is misguided and overly simplistic. With the combination of Hunter and Patterson with a big arm like Bray's throwing the football, Tennessee faced a lot of shell coverage. You'll notice that the percentage of Justin Hunter's targets that were deep was also low, a lot lower than DeAndre Hopkins, Terrance Williams and Markus Wheaton. It wasn't a matter of one guy being trusted deep a lot more than the other. It was a matter of the coverage dictating where Bray went with the football.

    3. You're really confusing hands with route running and absorption of the offense. The ability to run routes dependably and make sight adjustments were the primary reason behind any lack of variety (real or perceived) in what kinds of routes he ran. Cordarrelle Patterson was in his FIRST YEAR with the team. No other receiver being compared here was at such a disadvantage. And if you study first year production from JUCO receivers as I have, you know that Patterson's production was about average for guys that went on to successful NFL careers (Isaac Bruce, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Keyshawn Johnson, Stevie Johnson). Actually above average. There's a reason Derek Dooley stated that he'd never come across a player that made that big an impact that quickly.

    4. Yes the guy has very good natural hands. You can see it in his tape, if you really actually look. There's a reason why he caught the ball a lot more cleanly than Robert Woods when the two competed against one another recently on the JUGS machine in the All Star Football Challenge. There is one type of catch that I have QUESTIONS on, the over the shoulder catch. But anyone that says they have ANSWERS on that question, is BSing.
     
  49. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx A True Fan

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    LoL don't nit pick my comments into what you wamt them to be, and don't bring in stats that only show a small part of the story. If Allen had played across from Justin hunter he would be a top 10 pick. Allen lined up at every spot there is for WRs amd ran a HUGE variety of routes.

    I NEVER said Allen was a great deep ball threat, you made that comment up. On top of that my comparrison of Allen, pat ton, and Bailey to Patterson, was that ALL of them do far more than Patterson does as far as being a polished wr goes.

    Go watch any Patterson game tape, it's the Same routes over and over, this is college, not the NFL, why didn't he do anything new as the year went on? all this natural ability, but still running tne same crap over and over, 2-3 catches a game in college. For the 12th pick in the draft?

    To me, Patterson is jacoby jones at best. Not a bad player, but not worth the 12th pick either. Jones was good at what he was good at, and thats it. And still can't catch a ball without using his body to save his life.
     
  50. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I don't understand this argument style.

    "Stop throwing facts and evidence at me because my opinion is right no matter what the facts and evidence say and I'll just keep saying it louder and that's how you know how right I am."
     

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