Aaron Donald

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by jlfin, Mar 29, 2014.

  1. jlfin

    jlfin old pro

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    The more I read about him, the more he sounds like Warren Sapp. I think if he's there at 19, Hickey may be tempted.
    I personally wouldnt have a problem with that.
    Hickey was part of the FO staff that built a SB defense. He may be looking for his own Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks etc.
    The way to beat the Pats is to get quick pressure on Brady up the middle without blitzing.
    Donald is relentless in that regard and would open things up for Wake, Vernon and Jordan
    I know we have good DT's, but we dont have disruptive DT's.
     
  2. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I don't think he'll be there at 19, but because he is smaller than ideal, he could be. Of the players who might be there, I only have Shazier rated higher.
     
  3. DKphin

    DKphin A True Fan Donator

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    I agree. I do not think he will be there at 19, but run to the podium if he is.
     
  4. FearTheBeard

    FearTheBeard FearTheBurke

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    I don't doubt his talent. But you don't draft a 3 tech when you have 2 very solid 3 techs and Earl Mitchell who would likely fit at 3 tech. We need a big body in there if we do anything, and I wouldn't because I think we have good developmental guys. Drafting him here just doesn't make any sense because we'd have to play guys out of position...we need to draft a guy who is an immediate upgrade and frankly even if he was we'd just be losing value from guys like Starks, Odrick and Mitchell. We should be taking value away from weaknesses, not strengths.
     
  5. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I disagree. The draft isn't about plugging holes. It's about finding the best talents for your system. Starks is on a 2-year deal (and old), Mitchell shouldn't prevent you from drafting anyone, Odrick is on the last year of his contract. Almost every position of every team is in flux like this on a yearly basis, and that's why you don't bypass better players for lesser player that fill immediate needs. If all else is equal, by all means, address the immediate need, but if Shazier is off the board (which he very well could be), and Donald is on the board, there's a very small chance that you're going to get a better player than Donald at 19.
     
  6. fininpsl

    fininpsl A True Fan

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    You NEVER turn away from drafting elite talent even if you have the position manned for the upcoming season. You have to think four dimensionally when you draft. Like off-her-doll said, you have guys moving on all that time at every position. Though we have 3 DT's set for 2014, we only have two under contract for 2015, and both have contracts where they are candidate to be cut to make cap space if there's a younger cheaper option to replace them. It's HARD to add elite players, and you are far better off drafting them than you are signing them in free agency. And there are fewer options at elite talent with the 19th pick than you'd have higher up in the draft. Donald is one of the few elite looking talents that looks like he might drop. Like others have said, if he's still there, I'd take him.
     
  7. Twitches Brew

    Twitches Brew A True Fan

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    If he's there at 19 it's pretty much a no-brainer. Forget the DT depth; this kid is extremely talented. Dude gets to the QB at an insane rate for an interior player. Heck, he played a lot of DE at Pitt, you could play him there too. We did a decent job of patching holes in FA for the very reason of being able to go bpa. If he's there at 19, I'm pretty sure he'd be bpa.

    To me it'd be a different issue: if he's there at 19, you're probably going to be fielding calls for him via a trade up from someone like Seattle, Frisco, Denver, NewO, Philly. I think the question would be whether you'd rather move back and get more players or stay and draft a stud.
     
  8. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    The sleeper 3 tech dt is carraun Reid of Princeton...I doubt he gets out of the 3rd round...
     
  9. DcRy82

    DcRy82 A True Fan

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    I'd love to draft Aaron Donald. He's explosive. He's someone who can collapse the pocket from the inside on pass plays. I don't remember ever having a disruptive DT like he potentially could be.
     
  10. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    I haven't seen a mock where Dobson makes it to #19, but if he did Miami would be wise to take him. He gives you a lot of flexibility in that he can play DE and I don't think the Sapp comparison is too far off the mark. Dobson may be the most disruptive defensive player in the entire draft.
     
  11. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    He's my favorite player in the draft, along with Kyle Van Noy. Favorite in terms of liking the way they play. I'm not claiming they'll be the two best guys out of this crop.

    A few months ago when I started following the process more closely, Donald and Van Noy were strangely low in the ratings. Van Noy has remained there, probably because there was no way he could duplicate 2012 in terms of percentage of big plays among his total tackles. It was ridiculous. He naturally returned to a more normal level and somehow that's being held against him. It never ceases to amaze me that guys who have proven they can make a major impact are downgraded if they flatten out late in their career, like Van Noy and Marquise Lee, yet stiffs who are mostly projections are happily adjusted toward the top.

    Donald reminds me of Tavon Austin last year in that somehow I was seeing second round projections on him in January. Didn't make a fleck of sense, given the rare talent and playmaking ability. Austin jumped to a more logical level and it looks like Donald will follow the same route. I don't think he'll get within 4-5 picks of our choice.

    j-off-her-doll and others described it perfectly earlier in the thread. Earl Mitchell and others on our defensive line roster should mean nothing toward a decision on Aaron Donald, if he's there, just like Tannehill's presence should mean nothing if Bridgewater somehow slipped to us. We don't have strengths. You've got to hammer that into your skull. Nothing on this team is elite. Even the punter hits too many line drives. Last year the opposition allowed him to get away with it via only one deep man allowing the ball to drop and scamper. Since I joined this site in 2005 an ongoing amazement is lists of our players held up as special, and no need to touch that area. Meanwhile, on any other team we wouldn't be scared of that group or even be able to name them. Draft a great player. It won't hurt. If we end up with a right tackle at #19 I'll be ill. What are the odds the best player available happens to be a right tackle? The Hickey era will immediately stamp itself as not appreciably different than Spielman or Ireland.
     
  12. FearTheBeard

    FearTheBeard FearTheBurke

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    He isn't a can't miss top 5 prospect...he's a damn solid one but you don't draft into your top position of strength in the first round. It doesn't make your team better. Starks has played at a high level, Odrick has as well and they're both 3 techs. Find me a position on this roster that is deeper? You can't blindly go BPA or you end up with what we had with Jordan last year. If you get Donald on the field you're taking off Starks and Odrick. If you draft a LBer or a OL you're trading Wheeler or our not existent RT for an impressive prospect...there is a clear upgrade that makes your team better. I find with BPA within reason....but Donald would be even more of a luxury pick than Dion was last year...it would make zero sense. I'd prefer Shazier too and I'd be shocked if he wasn't there.

    Upgrade your best slot (maybe) with a marginally better prospect or upgrade a Wheeler/Clabo with a marginally lesser prospect? What makes the team better? It's not Donald.
     
  13. FearTheBeard

    FearTheBeard FearTheBurke

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    This is my point...you can't possibly justify drafting Bridgewater just because you want to blindly pick BPA. As I said look what we have in Jordan...a guy who's playing a position that 3 other guys are already holding down. You can look at how much more talented one guy is but then you have to look at the value you're losing by leaving more talented players on the bench. A minor upgrade at one position (Donald over Odrick) is not a better approach than a huge upgrade at another (Shazier over Wheeler, Martin over ?, etc).

    Do you like this defense better?
    Wake-Donald-Mitchell-Vernon
    Wheeler-Ellerbe-Misi

    or

    Wake-Odrick-Mitchell-Vernon
    Shazier-Ellerbe-Misi

    It's crazy that after Dion last year people seriously think that drafting players into positions of strength makes any sense. Pick from a pool of positions that can make an immediate impact (RB, TE, OL, LBer, FS, WR) and if the guy's are immediate upgrades take the highest guy on your board. Positional value is important, it can't just be cast aside. If a guy like Louis Nix was a Donald level prospect, then we could talk business because he'd be an immediate upgrade over Mitchell more than likely.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 30, 2014
  14. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    If Dion Jordan played up to his billing as a #3 overall pass rusher, he would have been a great pick.

    The problem with Jordan is that he's a better LB than a pass rusher/DE, and he's not a good enough LB to justify his #3 overall selection.
     
  15. FearTheBeard

    FearTheBeard FearTheBurke

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    I don't have a problem with the Jordan pick because you know what at the time we took him we didn't really know what we had in Vernon. It'd be like drafting a corner this year if we hadn't drafted Taylor and only had Davis. I would've understood because there wasn't an established guy across from Wake and to me an edge rush is extremely important in the NFL. I just don't see how Donald makes THIS team better. I get liking a prospect, cause I like him as probably a top 12 guy...but I think all good draft philosophies draw from a lot of things, and pure BPA is too simplistic an approach. I don't think there's any guarantee that Donald plays at a higher level than Starks over the final 2 years of his contract. Odrick was fantastic last year. I don't want to leave these guys on the bench because we have him rated slightly higher, we're taking value away from our better players. I make this same argument against guys like Marquise Lee, but even with how deep this draft is at WR I'd understand taking a guy like Evans because it's something different in a position group we're strong at. I really don't think there's a DT in this draft that will definitively give us an upgrade on Odrick/Starks at 3-tech.

    Shazier > Wheeler
    Evans > Hartline
    Ebron > Sims
    Martin > Garner?
    Su'a-Filo > Brenner
    Donald > Starks/Odrick

    The only key contributors on our team there are Hartline and the DT's. Even then we'd just push Hartline to the slot. The other guys are clear upgrades and Evans, Shazier, Ebron are all pretty similarly rated guys, I'd even have the OL in the same ballpark.
     
  16. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx Banned Hammered

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    Donald won't make it anywhere near our first pick IMO.

    The way teams are building there defenses now, and how there drafting, is highly aimed at pressure up the middle. Donald goes top 10 IMO. Very hard to see him get out of there, it's not exactly a strong position this draft.
     
  17. JamesBW43

    JamesBW43 You're standing on my neck Finheaven VIP

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    While I agree you can't just blindly pick BPA, I think you are undervaluing depth/positional value and overvaluing our current players. When you substitute a player, you're not necessarily losing the entire value of that player because there is a degree of fatigue to consider. And I don't think we have too many players that are more valuable than a properly selected 1st round pick.

    I wouldn't take Donald if Shazier is available but I absolutely would take him over Martin.
     
  18. FearTheBeard

    FearTheBeard FearTheBurke

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    My point is not only do we have talent at 3 tech, we have depth. If we needed a DT we'd be looking at a 1 tech who has a different set of skills, which I mentioned that in the event Nix was a Donald level prospect I'd understand that. You have your 3 tech snaps accounted for already with Odrick and Starks...Mitchell has value there too and it's worth giving the AJ Francis' of the world a run. We have a lot more "value" at DT than other positions on the roster, it's arguably our best position group. I never said that it was an absolute lost, but I don't think people weigh the difference between sharing snaps between what would be three 3-techs (maybe 1100 snaps), so best case you give Donald maybe 400-500...or you could plug in a G/T/LB and plug them in for nearly every down losing no value from other guys as they haven't been helpful. You draft Donald and you lose value from Odrick and Starks or play them out of position. I think 3 tech and QB can be put in the same vault and be punted away from our first round pick.

    I just don't see how I'm undervaluing depth. I think people our undervaluing all the other units on the team if they think we can make a luxury pick like Donald.
    DT: Starks, Mitchell, Odrick, Francis, Shelby (inside on passing downs)...that is TONS of depth, that's more depth and top end talent than any other unit on the team.

    A smart team, if somehow Donald fell to us, would use him as a trade chip, move down and accumulate picks in a deep draft.
     
  19. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx Banned Hammered

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    Beard makes good points, were pretty solid at DT, and besides, we have AJ Francis. The general forum told me he was an amazing prospect, must be true.

    IMO The top of this draft should be focused on making the run game better. We need a real run game desparetly.

    But I'd also be fine if we took one of these Tight Ends which is where I think the best value at 19 will be.
     
  20. jim1

    jim1 Pro Bowler

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    I haven't seen anything to make me think that Jordan can't be one heck of an OLB. Tailor made for a 3/4 but still, that's his position imo. It'll probably be the most frustrating thing for me next year if he's force fed into DE when the college and pro tape shows that he's immensely mobile, plenty tall to cover the big and quick TE's of the NFL and he's one heck of a pass rusher with a burst. This guy's downfall at DE simply is that his 250-260 lbs are spread over a lithe 6-6 frame and he's not meant to get tangled up with athletic 300-320 lb OTs that he'll face in the NFL. What you saw in college from him was great mobility, coverage ability that actually had him out wide in certain defenses in coverage, one heck of a pass rush with a startling first step- and a tendency to get ridden out wide by OTs when he went up against good OT's, big time. Look at the 2012 USC tape for example.

    Just because players like Jason Taylor and Jack Youngblood could cut it as undersized DE's doesn't mean that Jordan can- the dude is just not meant to have his hand in the ground and nose to nose up against NFL OTs imo. Draft a Chris Smith or James Gayle for that, go with Wake and Vernon at DE, whatever. Taylor thrived when taken off the line, and even before that he was just better than Jordan at being an undersized DE, bottom line. Even if Jordan improves at DE, I'll be pissed because his best use is in space, and as a pass rusher, a tall wild card to give opposing offensive coordinators fits. If the coaches didn't want to use him properly they shouldn't have drafted him in the first place. If Jeff Ireland forced him on Philbin, Philphin better make damn sure that Kevin Coyle gets the most out of him. If we have another year of misusing Jordan as badly as last year, I'll be nauseous.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 31, 2014
  21. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Doubt Donald gets past Chicago at #14...it's too rich for me...a likely situational rusher early on that if he makes hay with his pass rush teams are sure to double team and with his short arms neutralize him...if he doesn't win immediately he gets washed out...

    Shazier doesn't have the instincts to validate a top 20 pick...and he would compete with wheeler and Jenkins for weak side snaps...
     
  22. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx Banned Hammered

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    Agreed about shazier. I feel like people spend to much time watching him run into a pile full speed, and miss the rest of his game which is lacking.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 30, 2014
  23. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    hoops, honest question: Can you think of any LB's with Shazier's combination of production and athleticism (coming out of college) who have been anything less than top-notch LB's in the NFL?
     
  24. FearTheBeard

    FearTheBeard FearTheBurke

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    Aaron Curry? Not the same level of athlete but the closest I can think of. Hoops is really old tho, sure he has some.
     
  25. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Damn I didn't know 38 was one foot in the grave...lb play at the pro level is all about instincts...when you find a guy that is a high end athlete and shows likewise high level positional instincts you are cooking with gas...

    I'm not gonna overdraft a guy that shows half of that...
     
  26. Hungover

    Hungover Scout Team

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    As others have mentioned, will be long gone before pick 19 - if he goes to the right situation will be an absolute star. The fact he's shot up draft boards across the league in a draft this deep is testament to what he offers.
     
  27. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    The point I'm trying to make is that I think you're wrong about his instincts - that he wouldn't have 144 tackes (102 solo), 23.5 TFL, 4 FF's without good instincts. Also, he did come to Ohio State as a DE, so he's still improving that aspect of his game.
     
  28. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    the college production doesnt mean a whole lot to me...i think he shows some instincts but more athlete at the collegiate level than instincts...and if you think i'm wrong on it well no worries...

    i dont see special here
     
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