An Economist's perspective on the Draft: Always better to trade down, than up

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by SkapePhin, May 7, 2014.

  1. SkapePhin

    SkapePhin Rump Shaker Finheaven VIP Donator

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    http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448...asic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally

    Very interesting read and one that makes a lot f sense.

    Risk Diversification.

    It's better to have a lot of lower round picks and play the numbers than trade a bunch of picks for one high pick.

    I believe this is what set in place the tragic descent of the Dolphins in the early 2000s as WannSpiel viewed the draft picks as toilet paper. We still haven't recovered.

    Here's to hoping Hickey understands this concept.


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  2. Slim

    Slim VIPeezy

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    Also known as the Bill Belichick method.
     
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  3. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    It was the Jimmy Johnson method before that and the Bill Walsh method even before that.

    At the same time your chances of getting an elite player I think do jump up as you get into a certain range. I mean, if you think of it like horse racing, your chances of getting a great horse if you pay top dollar for one from top stock are going to be better than buying a dozen horses from mediocre stock and hoping one turns out. You might get better "value" from a dozen horses but if your goal is to win the Kentucky Derby good luck to you.

    As far as the draft is concerned it's the late third through fifth round that seems to produce the same number of duds as the sixth and seventh rounds do. So in that case trading down makes sense.
     
  4. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    The problem with WannSpiel was that they picked crappy players.
     
  5. SkapePhin

    SkapePhin Rump Shaker Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Well that only compounded the problem. They traded a crap ton of picks so they went into every draft with a lack of picks. If they had more, they may have hit on more ( considering they stumbled upon a few good players like Chambers, Y. Bell and McMichael)


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  6. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin PowerHungryMo'fo

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    Until you have A++ players in key position, meh.

    After getting the franchise QB, 4-3 DE, stud WR then I start the trade down and stockpile players.

    Good idea though
     
  7. spiketex

    spiketex Kiko Alonso - El Bravo 47 the yappy chihuahua Super Donator Donator

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    I'm actually an economist by education and training and I'm delighted to see that someone has sought to gather data on the subject.
    It links to a very good life concept of being prepared to delay gratification. I'm not surprised that Belichick got the benefit of trading down for all those years, but he wasted many picks on players who failed to make it. This year seems a good year to trade down because of the apparent great depth of talent available, but that shouldn't be seen as the norm. At the end of the day you need a trading partner.
     
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  8. rob19

    rob19 Soul Rebel Finheaven VIP Donator

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    To what extent, though?

    I've heard that on average there are about 18-24 players who are identified as 'blue chip' prospects coming out of the draft every year, and that there's a steep talent decline once you get passed the first 40 or so selections. Of course there are exceptions, but by-and-large I believe that's probably got a lot of truth to it.

    So for example, I'd rather have four or five picks in the top two rounds than a dozen picks in rounds four through seven.
     
  9. NJ Dolphan

    NJ Dolphan Rookie

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    It's an interesting analysis, but I just wish the article would say on average the teams that trade down usually do better, as opposed to saying teams are always better off trading down.

    There's also a bit of cargo cult to it, in that it talks about the correlation between a teams wins and losses and how often they trade down. Of course it might very well be that good teams have fewer glaring needs and are, as a result in a position to trade down. Or, for example, if you already have a good quarterback or at least one that you're willing to live with, you're in a position to trade with a team that's desperate to get one. So for instance, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where Houston (assuming it takes Clowney first overall) will attempt to trade up with any of the seven teams picking in front of Cleveland at 26, none of whom, with the exception of perhaps Arizona or Cincy, have a glaring need for a quarterback, if a guy like Manziel or Bortles is around. (The article also admits that the sample size is small).

    It's also interesting that in the captions under the pictures, it says that the Giants were the losers in the Eli Manning trade. So they would have won three Super Bowls if they stuck with Rivers and the other picks?
     
  10. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    Shoots a hole in the notion that the trade for Dion Jordan was great value. The article spotlights that 8 spots within that range isn't worth nearly as much as conventional wisdom. Although it's true that two defensive ends went quickly after Jordan so it's not like we could have had the second pick at that position 9 spots later. We might have been stuck with Sheldon Richardson inside. Horrors.

    Late first/early second is the current sweet spot. I think that holds up if you look at the Massey research and all-time Pro Bowl and Hall of Fame criteria. For quarterbacks it's higher. The later first rounders and second rounders don't pan out particularly well, despite a local example.

    If we entertain ideas about trading down this year, the acquired picks need to be within the top 40 or 45. If all you get is third and fourth round garbage you might as well stand pat. Deep draft phooey.
     
  11. Travis34

    Travis34 chea Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I mean in theory it works and is true. But at the same time you could pass up Earl Thomas for Misi/Odrick
     
  12. insomnia411

    insomnia411 The world is yours

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    And Dez Bryant hah.

    Trading down usually is the right play, but we have such a huge hole at RT that if we don't fill it we're screwed. I would trade up for Lewan.
     
  13. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Donator

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    The real value when trading during the draft lies in future picks IMO... Teams seem to put less value on their future(as in next years draft) picks for whatever reason and there is potential for robbery there if you re willing to be patient and really build for the future..
     
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  14. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    This.
     
  15. carjackistan

    carjackistan Rookie

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    I think it depends in part on how many picks you have. If you've got more than your typical allotment, it may make sense to move up. There's not a whole lot of time to evaluate these guys before roster decisions have to be made.

    That being said, I really hope the Dolphins don't trade up this year, especially if it's to take a lineman. With all the drama surrounding the QBs, I think there's a great chance for someone to fall in our lap, or for the Dolphins to get a good deal trading down.
     
  16. fakespike

    fakespike Starter

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    Exhibit A: Earl Thomas

    Exhibits B & C: Jared Odrick and Koa Misi
     
  17. spiketex

    spiketex Kiko Alonso - El Bravo 47 the yappy chihuahua Super Donator Donator

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    We probably get more combined value out of Odrick and Misi than San Diego gets from Ryan Matthews. However, the fact that Ireland failed to properly evaluate the talent available to recognize Earl Thomas's value flags a bigger problem. It also flags that the Chargers identified the wrong player to sacrifice their 2nd round pick.
    After every draft, Ireland said that we nailed it, based on his board. However, for the occasional successful selections, there seems a lot of inaccurate evaluations. Hopefully, Dennis Hickey can correct these problems and make some progress in this area.
     
  18. phinfan40353

    phinfan40353 Scout Team

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    I think the ability for a GM to identify the "perfect fit" of a player, his coaches, his organization and his support network is probably more valuable than any measurable or on-field performance. I also think this talent is more rare than coaching a team to a Super Bowl win.

    I think this is what truly separates the greatest GMs from great GMs. When you make a pick that doesn't consume more resources from your organization than the other 52 guys on the team, your coaches have more time to do the job they are best equipped.

    I agree management abilities and player responsibilities exist within everyone in the organization and the player. But let's face it, many times a single player can destroy a team. Who brought him into the organization? There's the real problem.

    I'm not saying every factor of acquiring Player X should be predictable. It's impossible. But the GREATEST GMs have the ability to realize Player X is more deficient in certain areas that will create a strain on the organization than Player Y. For all of the talent Player X may have, his tenure with the organization may be less productive than Player Y. And these are the GMs that build teams that are constantly competing for championships and have winning traditions.

    On the field excellence is not about one guy. It starts at the top. Super Bowls, championships and real winning start with the hiring process. This is why most teams depend on talent and a few, very few have an organization that can win with just about anyone.

    For all that he didn't deliver, Jimmy did build a great organization. It was evident in the fact it took Wanny several years to destroy the team. That's a sign there was a solid core and resources at every level.

    Jimmy simply didn't have the desire to see his creation through to completion. So, in that regards, he wasn't great at what he did. And that too is part of it, dedication to a dream.

    When occurrences like "Bully Gate" happen, it's not a condemnation of one guy. It's an indication of failure at many levels.

    Hickey might be "the guy", but as of right now, Philbin has yet to prove anything to me. So it doesn't matter "how" you draft. If you don't know how to build a team, draft picks, draft value and player ability mean nothing.
     
  19. BahamaFinFan78

    BahamaFinFan78 A True Fan

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    While Ireland did a bad job in drafting, do you honestly expect ANY GM to come out of a draft saying "We really screwed up, according to our board"?
     
  20. spiketex

    spiketex Kiko Alonso - El Bravo 47 the yappy chihuahua Super Donator Donator

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    Good point and I'm sure that he really meant it when he said - "nailed it", each year. However, it strikes me that there was such a big variance between the expectations and the reality 2 - 3 years later, we never got any explanations.
     
  21. BEANTOWNFINFAN

    BEANTOWNFINFAN Well-Known Member

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    yesterday on 98.5 in Boston they went back 10 years and looked at the number of draft picks they considered "hits" and Misses" for rounds 1,2, & 3 of the Patriots. The pats hit on 80% of their first round picks, 40% of their 2nd round picks and 28% of their 3rd round picks. Isn't it about getting the best player that is going to help you at the end of the day? Its only better to have a lot of later round picks if your selecting the right player... doesn't mean crap if you continually pick the wrong guy. Odds are in your favor that your going to "hit" on a pick in the first round.
     
  22. BahamaFinFan78

    BahamaFinFan78 A True Fan

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    But if you have only one first round pick, you are wrong 20% of the time. With only one second, you will be wrong 60% of the time. But if have two second round picks, you chances of "hitting" on one player increases. If you have three second round picks, your chances of "hitting" on one player increases even more.
     
  23. So Be

    So Be A True Fan

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    I get the stats over a number of drafts averaging out but, each draft in different in overall depth and depth at a position. For example, if you need a QB this is not a good year and little reason to go up to get one. Because of all the underclassmen coming in, players in this year's draft would have been higher rated in last year's draft, etc.
     
  24. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    I want to hate the article because I think their 'proof" is more connecting the dots but I definitely agree with the sentiment. Value is value though and while its true that the trader upper generally has gotten the poor end of the deal there has to be a sweet spot there somewhere. For me though I would tend to trade up for QBs and nothing else, in the first anyway, but like Awsi says I would do everything I could to make a trade that nets me another early second.

    Think of it this way: if first round picks are coin flips and second and third rounders are a roll of a six sided dice then you are better off trading 2 rolls of the dice for one coin flip. And in this particular draft I think the first round value is going to extend well into the second round.
     
  25. mahmacoat

    mahmacoat Banned Hammered

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    not "Always"
     
  26. FinfanInBuffalo

    FinfanInBuffalo Perennial All-Pro Finheaven VIP Donator

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    JJ is vastly overrated by many. While he hit on a number of picks on the defense, he was whiffed repeatedly on offense. in 96 he made 12 picks. From those only 2 were big contributors (Gardener, Thomas). In 97, 14 picks, 2 (Madison, Taylor) were great. In 98, 10 picks, only Surtain was solid. In 99, 8 picks and zero were very good. The great Jimmy Johnson had 44 picks in 4 years and got 4 pro-bowl players, 1 solid pro. I'll give him credit for drafting 4 all-time Dolphin greats but what about the duds? He drafted 7 RBs in 4 years, none were any good. He didn't draft a single good offensive lineman in 4 years. Zero WRs that amounted to anything. No QB to replace Marino.

    Is it any wonder why this team has struggled on offense for so long? When you combine the last few years of Shula, up until the present (1993 - 2013), they have drafted these high quality players on offense:

    OJ McDuffie (1993)
    Chris Chambers (2001)
    Vernon Carey (2004)
    Jake Long (2008)
    Mike Pouncey (2011)

    5 players (3 on the OL) in 21 years.
     

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