"Blue Chips"--A Funny Thing About the Draft | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

"Blue Chips"--A Funny Thing About the Draft

infiltrateib

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Everyone is scrabling right now to grade the draft, grade our draft, degrade our draft.

One thing we must all realize is that the NFL is FUNDAMENTALLY different from college football. Guys that excelled in college may not make it in the Pros. You can watch the tape as many times as you want (or, in most people's cases, re-read Mel Kiper's draft analysis again and consult his 'big draft board') and you STILL will NOT know who will be a Pro Bowl performer. This is the POINT of the draft.

Just for fun, let's jump back to the 2000 NFL Draft (CBS Sportsline). This is a very small glimpse into my point.

The Buffalo Bills got a B, and they had this to say: "The Bills focused on defense during the first day, and with their top pick chose DE Erik Flowers of Arizona State. Flowers gives them a much needed pass rusher off the corner. He flew up the draft charts off an impressive postseason." Erik Flowers is a MONSTER nowadays. No, seriously, he wears a giant green suit and pretends to be Shrek for childrens' birthday parties.

The Patriots? "They selected OT Adrian Klemm of Hawaii. Klemm is a natural left tackle with the footwork to match up well with speed rushers. He fills a major need along their line. In the 3rd round, they were surprised that RB J.R. Redmond of Arizona State was still on the board. They quickly selected the all-purpose runner. He has the talent to win the starting feature back job in camp. In the 5th round they chose TE Dave Stachelski of Boise State. He is a fine receiver who has the skills to play early in his career and maybe even win the starting job as a rookie."

Now let's go to one I think is just special. The CINCINNATI BENGALS: "The Bengals had their best draft in a decade. In the 1st round, they selected wideout Peter Warrick of Florida State. Warrick is a terrific playmaker who will team with young passer Akili Smith to form a big-play tandem. In the 2nd round, they selected corner Mark Roman of Louisiana State. Roman is a good cover man who figures to push for a starting job at either corner or safety." Peter Warrick is a blue-chip. What is this, his third pro bowl?

No! But wait! There's more.

The Jaguars: "In the 1st round, they chose wideout R. Jay Soward of USC. Soward is a gamebreaker with speed, quickness and top running skills. He has the talent to be an impact performer." He had a HIGH draft status and he was destined to CRACK the top 10. He's so fast, you'd think he was on DRUGS! He's that good!

The ARIZONA CARDINALS had an amazing draft too! They were graded with a great big "A." I'll post this one almost in its entirety, because it's really special. "The Cardinals had a fine draft from top to bottom and got their man in runner Thomas Jones of Virginia in the 1st round. Jones gives them a complete back with the ability to open up their offense. In the 2nd round, they selected LB Raynoch Thompson of Tennessee. Thompson is a fine addition for the weakside position and could win a starting job this summer. In the 3rd round, they added DT Darwin Walker of Tennessee for their depleted front four. He is a quality athlete who will contribute immediately on the inside. They added DE Mao Tosi of Idaho on the second day and he was a steal at that point and a player who will play a role in their line rotation."

Now, on to the individual players. I bet the Seahawks were upset they didn't get a shot at the #2 back on the board, THOMAS JONES. He "has the athletic package and the intangibles to be an early starter in the NFL with the well-rounded game to help in many roles. Tough, durable back with the natural running skills to provide immediate impact." They had to settle for Shaun Alexander, who had "average speed." Ron Dayne, who now sells TVs at Best Buy, had the "skills to be a top workhorse back."


You can't judge the market until the players play. Some players go up, some players go down. Some teams are better at drafting than others, but you never know until they step foot on the field. Zach Thomas, JT, Terrell Davis, TO, Randy McMichael... they were all "marginal" players who weren't really expected to contribute much. You read draft reports, Rick Spielman watches hours of game tape and meets with them personally. You talk to your best friend at the bar about Vince Wilfork, Rick Spielman talks to his coaches. Who knows if Rick is right? Mel Kiper doesn't, and you certainly don't. Reserve judgment, or don't expect anyone to take you seriously.
 
SHUT THE BOARD DOWN, AJ -- THIS INFILTRATEIB GUY IS RIGHT :rolleyes:

You had me until the end, man. If we don't have the discussions you seem so eager to shut down, there is really little purpose for this place to exist.

It is true that none of us know what is happening, but you prove the point that Rick doesn't know what is happening just like the other GMs don't. That didn't keep them from making picks, and it won't keep us from talking about them.
 
There's nothing wrong with what you're saying I just don't think its as big a crap shoot as you might be makin it out to be. The way you say it, it seems almost like you're almost saying we shouldn't be positive about what we did either as well as negative just cuz we don't know. Its my opinion we got a heck of a steal in Will Poole, almost as good a steal as Randy Starks would have been had he been available at our 3rd round pick, and Carey can be a pretty good tackle in this league.

The things I like about Carey that I really didn't pay attention to just cuz I was so high on Andrews...one, he ran a 1.73 ten yard split and that is just plain phenomenal at his weight, might be the fastest or second fastest among OLmen and is definitely one of the reasons late in the game he really started rising up the boards without us noticing....the second thing, his OL coach who has been at UM forever says he's the most gifted OLman he's ever coached and that includes Leon Searcy and Bryant McKinnie. Thats saying something. Bottom line is when he was a tackle his junior year he was considered a premier OL in the country, then they moved him to LG and he had two bum wheels and he struggled learning a new position and all the sudden he was down and out at the top of the 2nd round tryin to bang into the first round.

By the end, teams I think started correctly realizing that healthy and with the weight in check, running the 10 yard split fast as he does and being as strong as he is, being a little over 6'4" with a 34 inch wingspan, he's almost as good a tackle prospect as Shawn Andrews.

Just make no bones about it, we would have rather had Andrews...but we couldn't, so we have Carey, and thats almost as good. He could end up better than Andrews, or he could end up another Milner, who knows. But as of the draft he's not all that far behind Andrews as a tackle prospect
 
infiltrateib said:
Everyone is scrabling right now to grade the draft, grade our draft, degrade our draft.

One thing we must all realize is that the NFL is FUNDAMENTALLY different from college football. Guys that excelled in college may not make it in the Pros. You can watch the tape as many times as you want (or, in most people's cases, re-read Mel Kiper's draft analysis again and consult his 'big draft board') and you STILL will NOT know who will be a Pro Bowl performer. This is the POINT of the draft.

Just for fun, let's jump back to the 2000 NFL Draft (CBS Sportsline). This is a very small glimpse into my point.

The Buffalo Bills got a B, and they had this to say: "The Bills focused on defense during the first day, and with their top pick chose DE Erik Flowers of Arizona State. Flowers gives them a much needed pass rusher off the corner. He flew up the draft charts off an impressive postseason." Erik Flowers is a MONSTER nowadays. No, seriously, he wears a giant green suit and pretends to be Shrek for childrens' birthday parties.

The Patriots? "They selected OT Adrian Klemm of Hawaii. Klemm is a natural left tackle with the footwork to match up well with speed rushers. He fills a major need along their line. In the 3rd round, they were surprised that RB J.R. Redmond of Arizona State was still on the board. They quickly selected the all-purpose runner. He has the talent to win the starting feature back job in camp. In the 5th round they chose TE Dave Stachelski of Boise State. He is a fine receiver who has the skills to play early in his career and maybe even win the starting job as a rookie."

Now let's go to one I think is just special. The CINCINNATI BENGALS: "The Bengals had their best draft in a decade. In the 1st round, they selected wideout Peter Warrick of Florida State. Warrick is a terrific playmaker who will team with young passer Akili Smith to form a big-play tandem. In the 2nd round, they selected corner Mark Roman of Louisiana State. Roman is a good cover man who figures to push for a starting job at either corner or safety." Peter Warrick is a blue-chip. What is this, his third pro bowl?

No! But wait! There's more.

The Jaguars: "In the 1st round, they chose wideout R. Jay Soward of USC. Soward is a gamebreaker with speed, quickness and top running skills. He has the talent to be an impact performer." He had a HIGH draft status and he was destined to CRACK the top 10. He's so fast, you'd think he was on DRUGS! He's that good!

The ARIZONA CARDINALS had an amazing draft too! They were graded with a great big "A." I'll post this one almost in its entirety, because it's really special. "The Cardinals had a fine draft from top to bottom and got their man in runner Thomas Jones of Virginia in the 1st round. Jones gives them a complete back with the ability to open up their offense. In the 2nd round, they selected LB Raynoch Thompson of Tennessee. Thompson is a fine addition for the weakside position and could win a starting job this summer. In the 3rd round, they added DT Darwin Walker of Tennessee for their depleted front four. He is a quality athlete who will contribute immediately on the inside. They added DE Mao Tosi of Idaho on the second day and he was a steal at that point and a player who will play a role in their line rotation."

Now, on to the individual players. I bet the Seahawks were upset they didn't get a shot at the #2 back on the board, THOMAS JONES. He "has the athletic package and the intangibles to be an early starter in the NFL with the well-rounded game to help in many roles. Tough, durable back with the natural running skills to provide immediate impact." They had to settle for Shaun Alexander, who had "average speed." Ron Dayne, who now sells TVs at Best Buy, had the "skills to be a top workhorse back."


You can't judge the market until the players play. Some players go up, some players go down. Some teams are better at drafting than others, but you never know until they step foot on the field. Zach Thomas, JT, Terrell Davis, TO, Randy McMichael... they were all "marginal" players who weren't really expected to contribute much. You read draft reports, Rick Spielman watches hours of game tape and meets with them personally. You talk to your best friend at the bar about Vince Wilfork, Rick Spielman talks to his coaches. Who knows if Rick is right? Mel Kiper doesn't, and you certainly don't. Reserve judgment, or don't expect anyone to take you seriously.
Had to quote you so I could make everybody read it AGAIN!

I think the short version of what you're saying is, give your grades or your opinions, just don't pretend that the "facts" are in. Right?

I love it when you post, and it's not just because we're alphabeticly similar....:up:
 
I'm really excited about what Carey can potentially bring to this OL. I've heard a ton of good things about him, and he fills our biggest need (RT). I love this pick, lol.
 
I am thrilled that we got VC.

I am thirlled that we did not go WR.

I think that we will all be thrilled when we see VC out play SA.
 
not to mention when you grade our draft, you must add Jr Seau and Wade Smith into the mix since we traded/lost pix for them. Not bad when you look at it like that, but it is good when you consider the contribution both Smith and Jr made last year. For 2004, I expect Carey to start and Poole to come in on nickel situations and a couple of the other guys to make it on ST, but who knows until camp starts. Remember Jimmy's first draft when we draft 2 CBs high up 2nd and 4th I think and they both sucked. You never kno until the pads come on
 
ckparrothead said:
There's nothing wrong with what you're saying I just don't think its as big a crap shoot as you might be makin it out to be. The way you say it, it seems almost like you're almost saying we shouldn't be positive about what we did either as well as negative just cuz we don't know. Its my opinion we got a heck of a steal in Will Poole, almost as good a steal as Randy Starks would have been had he been available at our 3rd round pick, and Carey can be a pretty good tackle in this league.

Just make no bones about it, we would have rather had Andrews...but we couldn't, so we have Carey, and thats almost as good. He could end up better than Andrews, or he could end up another Milner, who knows. But as of the draft he's not all that far behind Andrews as a tackle prospect

Hey, I'm with you. I'm not saying it's a total crap shoot, I'm just saying we don't know what the overall status of our draft will be yet. We can grade all we want, but we're grading on impressions and not results. I mean, we drafted McMichael and probably didn't expect much out of him at first... but he surprised. Some teams are better than others at evaluating talent, and it shows, but the true grade comes later.

And I'm not saying "shut down the board" or "discussion isn't necessary." I'm saying discuss all you want, but armchair GMs are just that and cries of "the sky is falling" are going to fall upon deaf ears.

I'm big on Carey now. He needs to drop his fat % (especially around his waist) but he should be a very, very solid starter at RT. I don't agree with the claims that he should be a G. Shawn Andrews is a guy I would have liked to have, but at the same time he's a boom-or-bust that could pay out big or hurt us. I think Carey might be a blessing in disguise because taking a slightly worse run blocker that is more of a sure-thing (and is better than Andrews at pass blocking) is exactly what we need. We're not asking for him to go out and win the SB alone--but a consistent/solid if not spectacular Carey means more to us than a guy we have to constantly monitor and worry about. This team is close enough that we don't need a savior at RT--we can take a guy that's slightly worse but more of a sure thing (IMO).
 
That's actually a much more sensible position than I interpreted. Sorry about that -- my trigger finger is itchy after this weekend.
 
Jimmy James said:
SHUT THE BOARD DOWN, AJ -- THIS INFILTRATEIB GUY IS RIGHT :rolleyes:

You had me until the end, man. If we don't have the discussions you seem so eager to shut down, there is really little purpose for this place to exist.

It is true that none of us know what is happening, but you prove the point that Rick doesn't know what is happening just like the other GMs don't. That didn't keep them from making picks, and it won't keep us from talking about them.

Either I didn't explain it correctly or you missed my point. I don't think that Rick has no idea what he's doing. I'm just advocating a more patient approach than reading Mel Kiper's "C-" grade and flipping out at our "horrible" draft.

We can talk all we want, I just think there needs to be more patience on the part of fans. At the beginning of the offseason (and first few days of free agency) many fans on here went NUTS over the fact that big-name FAs were going elsewhere. We lost out on Damien Woody! John Tait went elsewhere! Our WR corp sucks, sign TO!

All Rick did was build us a line of Smith-JJ-McKinney-?-Carey. I can't say they're an amazing line (yet), because they haven't played a snap together, but that is a damn fine line in my opinion. If the reactionaries had it their way, we'd have overpaid for Woody and Tait and we'd need to do some serious renovating next season. As it stands, we have young players playing at reasonable salaries. I like it.

At WR, we picked up David Boston for pennies. I believe Rick was also able to buy most of Manhattan for Sam Simmons and 11 beads.

I'm not trying to slam anybody, just give a little hindsight to let you give Rick some wiggle room.
 
You had better be careful about that...

they have identified a medical condition which requires your finger to be put in a cast and splint, not to mention a sling. Now if this is your index finger, that's just a minor inconvenience. If it's not the index finger, you'd better watch out.
 
I hear you, man. Like I said just before you responded, I did get the wrong idea.

I really do think that you showed that GMs have little better idea than the rest of us, though. That little is important and is why they're employed and we're talking here, but the draft is risky...
 
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