College Tannehill vs. Pro Tannehill - A Metrics Breakdown (Griffin, Luck, etc. too)

[NUGap]

Before the last draft I did a breakdown of all the QBs and their accuracies at different ranges to give a good feel for how they performed in college (http://www.finheaven.com/forums/sho...-Griffin-Tannehill-Weeden-A-Metrics-Breakdown). Now, I wanted to compare their college numbers to their pro numbers to get a feel for where they are now, how they have progressed, etc. I took 8 of Tannehill's games, watched all of his passes and charted every throw he made within those games. To limit it to the quarterback's ability, I only noted where the receiver caught the ball. I also looked at the formation they threw from, drops, etc. I'm going to throw up the charts and then a little commentary.

EDIT: Looking at the correlation between college and pro accuracy within the zones, I found that the completion percentage in a zone in college will "explain" or predict (I use that word hesitantly) 78% of their pro accuracy. That is, there is actually a pretty strong correlation between their college accuracy and pro accuracy in each zone. Thus, if I were to grade out Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, etc - I'd be decently confident that their zone accuracy in college would roughly predict how they do in the NFL. (A statistician would probably punch me for putting it like that, but I'll manage)

	A&M	Dolphins	A&M	Dolphins
Total	Comp%	Comp%	%TotalThrows	%TotalThrows
Screen	93.55	76.00	20.67	11.06
1-5 Yards	64.29	63.64	18.67	34.07
6-10 Yards	57.14	54.90	23.33	22.57
11-20 Yards	55.88	52.27	22.67	19.47
20 + Yards	31.82	34.48	14.67	12.83

These are both the completion percentages from his Texas A&M games and the Dolphins games as well as the percentage of total throws. That is, 34.07% of his throws with the Dolphins were within the 1-5 yard range. I highlighted some things I found interesting.

PRR	A&M	Dolphins
	Comp%	Comp%
Screen	100.00	79.17
1-5 Yards	69.23	69.01
6-10 Yards	66.67	62.22
11-20 Yards	61.29	58.97
20 + Yards	33.33	35.71
Total	67.88	62.32

Total Drop %:
A&M: 8.66%
Phins: 8.4%

These are the completion percentages adjusted for drops by the wide receivers. The PRR stands for Perfect Receiver Rating, assuming that they caught every ball thrown to them. I only took blatant drops into account, not passes that are simply catchable.

	A&M	Dolphins
Shotgun	55.56%	52.05%
Under Center	71.67%	66.25%

Of course, these are his completion percentages in shotgun and under center.

Commentary

-First off, despite the fact that his overall completion % decreased from college to the NFL (expected), I find it interesting that his completion percentages at the various depths are relatively similar between the pros and college. Aside from the screens which decreased drastically (even when drops are factored in), he's still poor on deep throws and solid on mid-range throws

-I guess the install of Sherman's offense to the pros involved cutting down on screens. Their usage is down 9% in the offense and they've significantly jacked up the number of throws within the 1-5 yard range, 19% - 34%

-I'm actually impressed that he was able to keep his 11-20 yard accuracy up, it dropped for Griffin and seems like it'd be one of the harder throws to continuously make.

-I'm confused about the coaching staff's usage of the shotgun. More than 2/3rds of Tannehill's throws were from shotgun despite his continued inaccuracy from the formation. It makes sense that he may be less accurate in the gun because they are likely passing situations and he might be playing from behind. However, Luck, Griffin, and Wilson were far better in the gun throughout both their pro and college careers. Even taking Tannehill's play action production into account, you would think the coaching staff might step back and at least call 50/50 in the formations, since Tannehill is clearly better under center.

-Drops are still high in his pro career. 8% is relatively high compared to the other QBs in college and the pros. Either he keeps getting screwed on the talent level around him or there's something else going on with his throw.

I'm in the process of doing some of the other QBs to get a feel for how accurate looking at their college completion percentages is. I'll post them below as I finish them up. REMEMBER: Any stats are complementary in nature and I'm not saying you should use these to make your only judgments of Tannehill. I'm always astounded by how many people read some stats and then go YEAH BUT...I understand there's more to football than completion percentage. Use this as a tool in making your judgment, not the only thing.

 

[ANUFan]

It would be nice is if you could tabulate similar numbers for the top teir Qbs in the league. That way we would have a good barometer to gauge how far or close RT is from being elite

 

[NUGap]

Rgiii

Here are RGIII's numbers between college and the pros. I'm just going to post one or two things I find interesting.

	Baylor	Skins	Baylor	Skins
Total	Comp%	Comp%	%TotalThrows	%TotalThrows
Screen	85.71	73.68	15.79	19.39
1-5 Yards	75.00	77.42	24.06	31.63
6-10 Yards	60.00	72.22	22.56	18.37
11-20 Yards	68.00	50.00	18.80	20.41
20 + Yards	60.00	60.00	18.80	10.20

PRR	Baylor	Skins
Total	Comp%	Comp%
Screen	90.00	87.50
1-5 Yards	77.42	80.00
6-10 Yards	62.07	76.47
11-20 Yards	80.95	58.82
20 + Yards	62.50	60.00
	73.60	74.44

-The deep ball stayed eerily similar (my samples just happened to line up well), but I'm surprised by how much his accuracy in the 11-20 range dropped.

-He's throwing 20% screens in the pros, which isn't exactly exorbitant (or stat padding), but it ain't low either.

-The amount of 1-5 yard passes he throws are pretty similar to Tannehill.

 

[Sherif]

Tannehill needs to improve his touch on the short passes. Sound familiar? Henne still doesn't have it.

 

[MarxBrother]

I think the problem is, the dolphins suck at screen passes; and for the last 15 years I might add. I long for the day when we have a screen pass that the opposing D does not sniff out immediately or our RB has 3 blockers in wide open space. Remember when Jim Kelly used to kill us with that play. My God.

 

[NUGap]

Luck

Here are Luck's numbers:

	Stanford	Colts	Stanford	Colts
Total	Comp%	Comp%	%TotalThrows	%TotalThrows
Screen	88.89	92.31	8.11	9.15
1-5 Yards	85.00	61.11	36.04	25.35
6-10 Yards	70.83	48.48	21.62	23.24
11-20 Yards	46.15	50.00	23.42	28.17
20 + Yards	41.67	30.00	10.81	14.08

PRR	Stanford	Colts
Total	Comp%	Comp%
Screen	88.89	92.31
1-5 Yards	91.89	64.71
6-10 Yards	70.83	57.14
11-20 Yards	50.00	52.63
20 + Yards	50.00	33.33
	73.08	58.02

-Luck of the three QBs has the most distributed passes in his pro style offense. He also has the lowest overall completion percentage, so you would imagine that instead of padding his stats like Tannehill with 1-5 yard passes and RGIII with screens - he's looking at throwing an expanded route tree all the time.

-The drop in his accuracy in th 6-10 yard range is pretty drastic, about 13% points in the PPR. His 11-20 yard accuracy is pretty similar, even a little bit better and his deep accuracy is so-so. However he also throws the deep ball more than the others and at a pretty bad accuracy rating.

 

[Digital]

Screen passes only work if you have OL that are good in space and/or fast WR's or RB's to run them. Of those, we only really have the RB's to do it. RGIII has a stable of fast WR's to run bubble screens and that pads his statistics. Tannehill could throw them, sure, but our WR's aren't going to turn them into explosive plays. Our OL aren't all good in space so the RB screens are tough to execute as well. Personnel. Without the right players around him, it would be foolish to throw the same passes. :/

 

[NUGap]

It would be nice is if you could tabulate similar numbers for the top teir Qbs in the league. That way we would have a good barometer to gauge how far or close RT is from being elite

I would, but there was another similar thread on that type of thing today (totally didn't see it when I posted today) and it's got some good stuff in there. I'm far more interested in the draft and seeing how you can project talent using stats as a factor, finding out how RT is doing in the pros/ his offense is more of a byproduct of finding out how well these stats correlate to college numbers.

 

[ONole1]

Tannehill's # of screens passes will increase as Miami add linemen that fit the scheme. They had too many square pegs in round holes this year. For the most part the linemen weren't athletic enough to get out in front of screens so Sherman didn't call them.

 

[Rev Kev]

Our Oline is gonna look drasticaly differnt where they will be useful to Ryan our QB is throwing into smallish windows unlike RG3, it plays with the qb's head, esp. when your guy is running free

 

[hoops]

i haven't had a chance to read this yet but i'm looking forward to it but i know one thing after watching a bunch of tannehill at a & m and his rookie year in miami...his decision making got a lot damn better in the pros...i wish there was a way to track that so that people could see the difference

not many guys go into the pros and year one have as sound decisions with the football as tannehill did this year...especially ones who have to do as much as miami ask tannehill to do in this option route system...with what he had he could have thrown 25 picks easy as a first year starter having to set up all his protections presnap and run an option route system with very limited options on the outside...easy

 

[NY8123]

The 30% completion rate on the deep ball is pretty league standard, RGII at 60% is an anomaly, he will not continue at that rate, no way.

In the case of Tannehill, he needs to work on his 6 to 10 yard passes, those will end up being his bread and butter, Brady and Manning made there careers off that yardage throw. As for Luck this is still more proof that Indy has no business being in the playoffs yet, soon but not yet.

 

[NUGap]

Wilson

Here are Wilson's numbers

	Wisconsin	Hawks	Wisconsin	Hawks
Total	Comp%	Comp%	%TotalThrows	%TotalThrows
Screen	88.89	66.67	8.82	13.27
1-5 Yards	92.59	73.53	26.47	30.09
6-10 Yards	57.14	66.67	20.59	23.89
11-20 Yards	68.18	59.09	21.57	19.47
20 + Yards	34.78	46.67	22.55	13.27

PRR	Wisconsin	Hawks
Total	Comp%	Comp%
Screen	100.00	83.33
1-5 Yards	92.59	75.76
6-10 Yards	63.16	69.23
11-20 Yards	68.18	61.90
20 + Yards	38.10	46.67
	70.10	68.22

-I find it really interesting that all four quarterbacks now have had roughly 30% of their passes within the 1-5 yard range, higher than any other yardage zone. Obviously it's a high percentage throw, but I don't know if the NFL average is around 30% or that's just an easy throw for rookies to make.

-Impressed by Wilson's improvement on the 6-10 yard ball. Most QBs in this haven't improved on many of their ranges, so to see a big jump is pretty impressive.

-Also like the clip he's throwing at with the deep ball, 46% is a nice number that feels like it could be sustainable.

-He also had the lowest drop percentage at 4.9%, it certainly helps your team win when you'r receivers aren't dropping the ball...

 

[Awsi Dooger]

-I'm confused about the coaching staff's usage of the shotgun. More than 2/3rds of Tannehill's throws were from shotgun despite his continued inaccuracy from the formation. It makes sense that he may be less accurate in the gun because they are likely passing situations and he might be playing from behind. However, Luck, Griffin, and Wilson were far better in the gun throughout both their pro and college careers. Even taking Tannehill's play action production into account, you would think the coaching staff might step back and at least call 50/50 in the formations, since Tannehill is clearly better under center.

It's senseless when we put Tannehill in the shotgun on an early down, particularly if it's an open set and not flanked by backs. I emphasized that in a play action thread a couple of weeks ago. Our best and most rhythmic passing plays are off decisive play action from under center. Tannehill is more comfortable and more accurate on those throws. The plays simply evolve better...open spaces. The weakness at receiver and inexperience at quarterback is magnified when you pretend you can line up 4 or 5 wide and throw the ball successfully when the opponent knows you are likely to throw it.

The league in general is overly obsessed with the shotgun. It's simply bad football. Copycat league with the wrong lessons learned in this case. Under the new rules a Brady or Rodgers is able to quickly decipher the 4-5 options and allow the perfect arc and pace toward a successful play. Countless permutations. With lesser quarterbacks it's simply too much chaos, and mostly in the same place. Ten to 15 yards routes. Pick one quickly. Extra defensive backs who are never too far away when you've got 4 or 5 receivers wandering around. Second or third tier quarterbacks generally have less than ideal accuracy or touch. When I attended the Buffalo game I was trying to restrain a chuckle at Fitzpatrick's wild line drive flails out of the shotgun. No threat of finesse, or making something out of nothing. Quarterbacks of that caliber were better served with options from every angle, like backs swinging out of the backfield, or use of the wingback position. Quick pop passes from under center. Anything that didn't force them to be something they are not. Weak quarterbacks abusing the shotgun is like outmanned basketball teams pathetically launching one three pointer after another. It makes headlines in the very rare occasions it succeeds but in general you cement your fate.

Besides, defenses salivate to rotate forward and attack empty sets and mediocre quarterbacks who are sitting back there under no pretense of a running game. Too much shotgun reduces rushing attempts and doesn't help yards per attempt. The offense evolves as less physical and more vulnerable. You could sense how flimsy we were from the opening kickoff at New England. I'd propose we would have competed markedly better in that game if we never heard of the shotgun this season. Line up and hit somebody, with 30+ rushes and play action.

In a game like that when you are trying to approximate their style, but are laughably worse in every category, it's a stark reality to how far behind we are. With so little contrast in this era it's easy to understand why so many teams are winning 12 or 13 games or more. It was 4 this season and 5 last year. The sportsbooks typically put one or two teams at 11 wins or higher in the season win over/under. Previously that looked high. Now you wonder how they'll possibly lose 5 times. Everybody is determined to wing the ball out of the shotgun, but only a half dozen or so elite quarterbacks.

It's too soon to tell if Tannehill will reach the level of a quarterback who can thrive out of the shotgun via great feel for the game. His accuracy issues are a bit troubling in that regard.

BTW, don't fall for the jumbo that he could have thrown 25 interceptions this season, given the way we used him. That's the standard 40% adjustment, the type that you hear so often in sports bars, or these days on ESPN. The rule should always be that if you're projecting more than a 10% adjustment you're probably wrong, and anything 20% or higher is laughable. That applies to how we'll fare after acquiring better skill position players. Only three quarterbacks in more than a decade have thrown 25 or more interceptions in a season. It was Favre, Cutler and Eli Manning, BTW. In many seasons, including this year, nobody reaches 20. I see many examples of the happy 40% adjustment around here. Typically I let them go, minus comment. They certainly don't go unchallenged in sportsbooks. You're laughed out of the room. As much as I despise Sun Life Stadium compared to the Orange Bowl, it's a forfeit of 1.5 to 2 points per game on average, nothing close to what some estimates would apply.

 

[hoops]

10 percent adjustment my rear end...if tannehills decision making had not been as good as it was and had he not played against blitz pressure as well as he did regarding making quick decisions under fire another 1.3 picks projected is what's laughable...take that metric back to vegas...

even 20 percent is only 2.6 more picks...if your qb is throwing the ball into coverage all over the place it's gonna be way more than another 3 picks added over the course of 15 games...now i will say that 25 was probably a bit much but in the 20 range absolutely possible...