phunwin
The name's Bond...James Bond.
Commentary's down, so I've been instructed to post this directly in the forums.
-Phil
The Dolphins Offseason Primer, Part 6
By Phil Unwin
So hey, how about those first couple days of free agency, huh? The Phins sure made a big splash when they signed that David Martin! And hey, how about Kelley Washington maybe being on his way? That should fix the problems we had at wide receiver!
Since sarcasm seldom translates well over the internet, let’s just say that the Dolphins haven’t exactly been super active in free agency...well, unless you count sending guys into free agency, as opposed to signing them. But you know what? I can live with that. I mean, have you seen some of the contracts getting thrown around? Drew Bennett’s getting almost the same money the Phins pay Chris Chambers, despite the fact that Bennett basically had an 8 game stretch where he produced video game-like numbers and has been a #3 receiver the rest of his career. Nate Clements got 8 years, $80 million and $22 million in guaranteed money. I like Clements; I think he’s one of the top 5 or 10 cover corners in the NFL, and he was Jay Fiedler’s favorite receiver to boot. But I wouldn’t give that kind of money to any cornerback other than Deion Sanders at the peak of his powers. For God’s sake, Visanthe Shiancoe, a tight end who’s probably neither better nor worse a dozen other block-first backup tight ends, got a 5 year, $18 million deal with $7 million guaranteed! There are a lot of teams that are going to be suffering from an acute case of buyer’s remorse, and soon. So if the Phins are sitting out the early insanity, I’m okay with that.
I’ll have more on the Dolphins in free agency when more happens. For now, though, let’s continue with the Offseason Primer, this week focusing on linebackers.
The Current Situation:
Any discussion of the Dolphin linebackers must begin with Zach Thomas. Thomas has long been undersized for a 4-3 MLB, let alone as an inside LB in a 3-4. Yet he’s made the transition quite well to the Dolphins’ new hybrid defense and had one of his best years ever in 2006, setting a new career high in tackles (165) and tying his career high in sacks (3). Thomas will be 34 when the season starts, but after such a strong 2006, it’s clear he has plenty left in the tank. He’s still awesome in run support and pretty good in pass coverage, though he’s lost a step and can no longer stick with tight ends with any speed at all. One problem Thomas has is that he’s not much of a blitzer. He’s more quick than fast, and relies heavily on his high football IQ and anticipation to make plays. That’s great for reading an underneath route, or reacting to a running back making a cut at the line of scrimmage, but it doesn’t make a great blitzer, and Thomas was constantly picked up at the line, since he lacks blow-by speed, or the strength to outmuscle an interior offensive lineman. In 2007, Dom Capers should make it a goal to blitz Thomas much less, and let him do what he does best: make plays near the line. In this defense the Dolphins bring pressure from several different places, so ultimately, Thomas isn’t a great fit, especially if they want to get bigger. For 2007, he will remain the glue that holds the linebacking corps together, but his age, high cap number and the emphasis on getting younger and bigger could make this his last campaign in a Miami uniform.
Channing Crowder is the second piece of the puzzle, and could be Thomas’ heir apparent as the captain of the defense. In the 4-3, Crowder plays the ROLB position, but moves inside in the 3-4. He has an excellent all-around game, and is a very physically gifted player who has the anticipation and understanding of the game to go with it. He continues to improve and could be a Pro Bowler someday. He represents the shift the Dolphins seem to be trying to go for on defense: away from the older guys and towards younger, faster, stronger players.
Apart from Thomas and Crowder, the Dolphins linebackers are in a state of disrepair. Donnie Spragan, at 242 pounds, is a touch small to play a 3-4 OLB. For the last two years, he played the strong side LB spot in the 4-3. He’s not a particularly adept blitzer and is more a solid, all-around type than he is a playmaker. He’s a free agent and so far, the Dolphins haven’t shown a lot of interest in bringing him back.
Derrick Pope and Keith Adams are both versatile backup linebackers who are more well-known for their special teams ability than anything else. Well, that’s not entirely true; Adams is also known for failing to recover that onside kick against the Texans. Adams is a free agent.
David Bowens was mentioned in a previous post, but it bears mention that Bowens has the size and pass rush ability to be a quality 3-4 OLB, and indeed, often played that position on passing downs. In a familiar refrain for this position, Bowens is also a free agent and has so far visited with the Jets. I am more convinced than ever that someone will overpay Bowens based on his ability to rush the passer.
There are no significant cap issues at linebacker; Crowder is cheap, Thomas isn’t going anywhere and no one else is either important or expensive.
The Alternatives:
Free agency has been underwhelming for Dolphin fans so far, but the team is apparently ready to jump into the fray for Joey Porter. Porter is such a good fit for this team that it’s not even funny. The Steelers cut Porter for cap purposes and they probably did him a favor; in this market, Porter will command a big salary. If the Dolphins opt to pursue Porter, they will likely have to offer at least $5 million per year, plus at least $15 million in guaranteed money. Is that worth it? I say yes. As anyone who watched the 2006 season opener can attest, Porter is a wrecking ball dressed up as an outside linebacker. The Dolphins have long had a problem getting big plays from their outside linebackers, but Porter would most assuredly change that. He has 60 career sacks in eight years, and has averaged about nine sacks in the last three (27.5 over the last three years, to be exact). He’s also a quality pass defender, and is obviously well versed in the skills needed to play in the 3-4 defense, having played in Pittsburgh for eight years. He’ll be 30 when the season starts, and probably isn’t quite as good as he used to be, but he has done a good job of staying healthy, since he’s never missed more than 2 games in a season. Porter is arguably the best free agent Miami could pursue right now, so we’ll see if the team can make it happen.
Donnie Edwards is also on the market. He’s undersized for what the team wants to do, and is a bit long in the tooth as well, but for a short-term fit, he might be a good choice. Edwards is an excellent linebacker in pass coverage, and like Thomas, plays with tremendous anticipation and football smarts. He previously expressed some interest in coming to Miami, but whether the feeling is mutual is another question. If the Phins miss out on Porter, Edwards might enter the picture.
Lance Briggs is a free agent and has demanded a trade from the Bears, but it looks like the front office is more interested in picking up draft picks than trading them. Briggs was hit with the franchise tag, which almost certainly makes him cost-prohibitive in terms of both dollars and draft picks.
Cato June is available, but is very undersized for an OLB position in a 4-3, let alone a 3-4. He’s stellar in pass coverage, decent in run support, and is very athletic, but probably isn’t a great fit here.
Napoleon Harris reportedly has drawn some interest from the Phins. Harris has the size and strength to be what the Dolphins want, but has failed to live up to his first-round draft billing (2002) thus far. Harris was best as a blitzer in the Vikings’ offense, and therefore might be a good option as a 3-4 OLB. It should be noted that he’s played the Will, the Sam and the Mike in a 4-3, so he’s got versatility on his side.
Depth will likely be an issue to be addressed with a budget free agent signing or two. San Diego’s Carlos Polk could be an option as a backup OLB, for example.
In free agency, they might be willing to settle for a smaller player to provide a short-term fix (i.e. Edwards), but in the draft, the Dolphins would probably be looking for bigger outside linebackers. Inside LB would be less of a priority, since Crowder and Thomas are just fine, and probably not addressed until the later rounds, if at all, unless there was great value on the board. I previously mentioned Lamarr Woodley, who is listed as a DE, but could easily swap between OLB and DE and would be a great fit for a hybrid defense. I can’t emphasize enough how thrilled I would be if the Phins snagged Woodley in round 2.
Paul Posluszny is listed as an OLB, but might be better suited to the inside. Scouts seem split on Posluszny, whose senior year was held back a bit by his knee injury in the 2006 Orange Bowl, because he doesn’t have eye-popping athleticism. I don’t think he’s exactly what the Dolphins want for their defense, but he strikes me as the kind of guy that might slip on draft day and be a late-second or early-third round steal. Sometimes, you’ve got to ignore the measurements and just take a productive player.
Speaking of inside linebackers, there’s Mississippi’s Patrick Willis. He’s a fine example of a do-everything linebacker who has a great attitude and could be a defensive leader in a short time. Willis is best suited to the inside, and will probably go sometime late in round 1, but if he’s there in round 2, the Dolphins might have to snag him and move Crowder to the outside full-time. Willis would have to improve his coverage skills a bit to play the Sam in a 4-3. If the Dolphins did take Willis, it might be a sign that they plan to shove Thomas out the door after the season.
Mid-round players the Dolphins might be looking at are guys like Michigan’s Prescott Burgess and Nebraska’s Stewart Bradley, both of whom project nicely to OLB spots in a 3-4, but could probably handle the strong side duties in a 4-3. Both are big, strong guys who may not have top end speed, but can get the job done and probably contribute on special teams as well. Either of those guys could merit consideration in the third or fourth round. In the later rounds, watch for Brown’s Zak DeOssie, son of former NFL-er Steve DeOssie. DeOssie is a bit raw, but is huge for a linebacker (268 pounds) and has impressive physical skills. He’s the kind of late-round project that they might like to grab and coach up. In fact, his stock might already be rising to the point where he could go in round 4.
The Final Assessment:
There is little question that the Dolphins will have to add 2 or 3 linebackers between free agency and the draft. We know they’re interested in Joey Porter, and if they signed him, it would go a long way towards filling the holes that exist on defense. A playmaking OLB would really help keep the defense strong, and take pressure off the beleaguered secondary and allow Matt Roth to deal almost exclusively with single blockers. Imagine a defense where Jason Taylor, Vonnie Holliday, Joey Porter and Roth are rushing the passer at the same time. Sounds good, doesn’t it?
However, as with the defensive line, there may be a youth movement in the offing, and thus the Dolphins might simply look to stock up in the draft and just try to add a veteran or two in free agency to patch holes until the youngsters were ready to take over. However, as long as Crowder continues to improve, and Thomas’ performance doesn’t fall off a cliff, the linebacking corps as a whole will be in good shape in 2007.
-Phil
The Dolphins Offseason Primer, Part 6
By Phil Unwin
So hey, how about those first couple days of free agency, huh? The Phins sure made a big splash when they signed that David Martin! And hey, how about Kelley Washington maybe being on his way? That should fix the problems we had at wide receiver!
Since sarcasm seldom translates well over the internet, let’s just say that the Dolphins haven’t exactly been super active in free agency...well, unless you count sending guys into free agency, as opposed to signing them. But you know what? I can live with that. I mean, have you seen some of the contracts getting thrown around? Drew Bennett’s getting almost the same money the Phins pay Chris Chambers, despite the fact that Bennett basically had an 8 game stretch where he produced video game-like numbers and has been a #3 receiver the rest of his career. Nate Clements got 8 years, $80 million and $22 million in guaranteed money. I like Clements; I think he’s one of the top 5 or 10 cover corners in the NFL, and he was Jay Fiedler’s favorite receiver to boot. But I wouldn’t give that kind of money to any cornerback other than Deion Sanders at the peak of his powers. For God’s sake, Visanthe Shiancoe, a tight end who’s probably neither better nor worse a dozen other block-first backup tight ends, got a 5 year, $18 million deal with $7 million guaranteed! There are a lot of teams that are going to be suffering from an acute case of buyer’s remorse, and soon. So if the Phins are sitting out the early insanity, I’m okay with that.
I’ll have more on the Dolphins in free agency when more happens. For now, though, let’s continue with the Offseason Primer, this week focusing on linebackers.
The Current Situation:
Any discussion of the Dolphin linebackers must begin with Zach Thomas. Thomas has long been undersized for a 4-3 MLB, let alone as an inside LB in a 3-4. Yet he’s made the transition quite well to the Dolphins’ new hybrid defense and had one of his best years ever in 2006, setting a new career high in tackles (165) and tying his career high in sacks (3). Thomas will be 34 when the season starts, but after such a strong 2006, it’s clear he has plenty left in the tank. He’s still awesome in run support and pretty good in pass coverage, though he’s lost a step and can no longer stick with tight ends with any speed at all. One problem Thomas has is that he’s not much of a blitzer. He’s more quick than fast, and relies heavily on his high football IQ and anticipation to make plays. That’s great for reading an underneath route, or reacting to a running back making a cut at the line of scrimmage, but it doesn’t make a great blitzer, and Thomas was constantly picked up at the line, since he lacks blow-by speed, or the strength to outmuscle an interior offensive lineman. In 2007, Dom Capers should make it a goal to blitz Thomas much less, and let him do what he does best: make plays near the line. In this defense the Dolphins bring pressure from several different places, so ultimately, Thomas isn’t a great fit, especially if they want to get bigger. For 2007, he will remain the glue that holds the linebacking corps together, but his age, high cap number and the emphasis on getting younger and bigger could make this his last campaign in a Miami uniform.
Channing Crowder is the second piece of the puzzle, and could be Thomas’ heir apparent as the captain of the defense. In the 4-3, Crowder plays the ROLB position, but moves inside in the 3-4. He has an excellent all-around game, and is a very physically gifted player who has the anticipation and understanding of the game to go with it. He continues to improve and could be a Pro Bowler someday. He represents the shift the Dolphins seem to be trying to go for on defense: away from the older guys and towards younger, faster, stronger players.
Apart from Thomas and Crowder, the Dolphins linebackers are in a state of disrepair. Donnie Spragan, at 242 pounds, is a touch small to play a 3-4 OLB. For the last two years, he played the strong side LB spot in the 4-3. He’s not a particularly adept blitzer and is more a solid, all-around type than he is a playmaker. He’s a free agent and so far, the Dolphins haven’t shown a lot of interest in bringing him back.
Derrick Pope and Keith Adams are both versatile backup linebackers who are more well-known for their special teams ability than anything else. Well, that’s not entirely true; Adams is also known for failing to recover that onside kick against the Texans. Adams is a free agent.
David Bowens was mentioned in a previous post, but it bears mention that Bowens has the size and pass rush ability to be a quality 3-4 OLB, and indeed, often played that position on passing downs. In a familiar refrain for this position, Bowens is also a free agent and has so far visited with the Jets. I am more convinced than ever that someone will overpay Bowens based on his ability to rush the passer.
There are no significant cap issues at linebacker; Crowder is cheap, Thomas isn’t going anywhere and no one else is either important or expensive.
The Alternatives:
Free agency has been underwhelming for Dolphin fans so far, but the team is apparently ready to jump into the fray for Joey Porter. Porter is such a good fit for this team that it’s not even funny. The Steelers cut Porter for cap purposes and they probably did him a favor; in this market, Porter will command a big salary. If the Dolphins opt to pursue Porter, they will likely have to offer at least $5 million per year, plus at least $15 million in guaranteed money. Is that worth it? I say yes. As anyone who watched the 2006 season opener can attest, Porter is a wrecking ball dressed up as an outside linebacker. The Dolphins have long had a problem getting big plays from their outside linebackers, but Porter would most assuredly change that. He has 60 career sacks in eight years, and has averaged about nine sacks in the last three (27.5 over the last three years, to be exact). He’s also a quality pass defender, and is obviously well versed in the skills needed to play in the 3-4 defense, having played in Pittsburgh for eight years. He’ll be 30 when the season starts, and probably isn’t quite as good as he used to be, but he has done a good job of staying healthy, since he’s never missed more than 2 games in a season. Porter is arguably the best free agent Miami could pursue right now, so we’ll see if the team can make it happen.
Donnie Edwards is also on the market. He’s undersized for what the team wants to do, and is a bit long in the tooth as well, but for a short-term fit, he might be a good choice. Edwards is an excellent linebacker in pass coverage, and like Thomas, plays with tremendous anticipation and football smarts. He previously expressed some interest in coming to Miami, but whether the feeling is mutual is another question. If the Phins miss out on Porter, Edwards might enter the picture.
Lance Briggs is a free agent and has demanded a trade from the Bears, but it looks like the front office is more interested in picking up draft picks than trading them. Briggs was hit with the franchise tag, which almost certainly makes him cost-prohibitive in terms of both dollars and draft picks.
Cato June is available, but is very undersized for an OLB position in a 4-3, let alone a 3-4. He’s stellar in pass coverage, decent in run support, and is very athletic, but probably isn’t a great fit here.
Napoleon Harris reportedly has drawn some interest from the Phins. Harris has the size and strength to be what the Dolphins want, but has failed to live up to his first-round draft billing (2002) thus far. Harris was best as a blitzer in the Vikings’ offense, and therefore might be a good option as a 3-4 OLB. It should be noted that he’s played the Will, the Sam and the Mike in a 4-3, so he’s got versatility on his side.
Depth will likely be an issue to be addressed with a budget free agent signing or two. San Diego’s Carlos Polk could be an option as a backup OLB, for example.
In free agency, they might be willing to settle for a smaller player to provide a short-term fix (i.e. Edwards), but in the draft, the Dolphins would probably be looking for bigger outside linebackers. Inside LB would be less of a priority, since Crowder and Thomas are just fine, and probably not addressed until the later rounds, if at all, unless there was great value on the board. I previously mentioned Lamarr Woodley, who is listed as a DE, but could easily swap between OLB and DE and would be a great fit for a hybrid defense. I can’t emphasize enough how thrilled I would be if the Phins snagged Woodley in round 2.
Paul Posluszny is listed as an OLB, but might be better suited to the inside. Scouts seem split on Posluszny, whose senior year was held back a bit by his knee injury in the 2006 Orange Bowl, because he doesn’t have eye-popping athleticism. I don’t think he’s exactly what the Dolphins want for their defense, but he strikes me as the kind of guy that might slip on draft day and be a late-second or early-third round steal. Sometimes, you’ve got to ignore the measurements and just take a productive player.
Speaking of inside linebackers, there’s Mississippi’s Patrick Willis. He’s a fine example of a do-everything linebacker who has a great attitude and could be a defensive leader in a short time. Willis is best suited to the inside, and will probably go sometime late in round 1, but if he’s there in round 2, the Dolphins might have to snag him and move Crowder to the outside full-time. Willis would have to improve his coverage skills a bit to play the Sam in a 4-3. If the Dolphins did take Willis, it might be a sign that they plan to shove Thomas out the door after the season.
Mid-round players the Dolphins might be looking at are guys like Michigan’s Prescott Burgess and Nebraska’s Stewart Bradley, both of whom project nicely to OLB spots in a 3-4, but could probably handle the strong side duties in a 4-3. Both are big, strong guys who may not have top end speed, but can get the job done and probably contribute on special teams as well. Either of those guys could merit consideration in the third or fourth round. In the later rounds, watch for Brown’s Zak DeOssie, son of former NFL-er Steve DeOssie. DeOssie is a bit raw, but is huge for a linebacker (268 pounds) and has impressive physical skills. He’s the kind of late-round project that they might like to grab and coach up. In fact, his stock might already be rising to the point where he could go in round 4.
The Final Assessment:
There is little question that the Dolphins will have to add 2 or 3 linebackers between free agency and the draft. We know they’re interested in Joey Porter, and if they signed him, it would go a long way towards filling the holes that exist on defense. A playmaking OLB would really help keep the defense strong, and take pressure off the beleaguered secondary and allow Matt Roth to deal almost exclusively with single blockers. Imagine a defense where Jason Taylor, Vonnie Holliday, Joey Porter and Roth are rushing the passer at the same time. Sounds good, doesn’t it?
However, as with the defensive line, there may be a youth movement in the offing, and thus the Dolphins might simply look to stock up in the draft and just try to add a veteran or two in free agency to patch holes until the youngsters were ready to take over. However, as long as Crowder continues to improve, and Thomas’ performance doesn’t fall off a cliff, the linebacking corps as a whole will be in good shape in 2007.
