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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dajesus, Nov 10, 2017.

  1. Lionstone

    Lionstone A True Fan

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    I do believe that we’ll rounded RBs behind our O-line have a better chance against the Panther than a physical runner like Ajayi. I have some hope that our defense will improve with a better safety, but I am taking a wait and see on the defense.
     
  2. Snoop

    Snoop A True Fan

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  3. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    Yeah I'm familiar with that from finance. But that suggests that it is, in fact, not supported by value. Just because one person _thinks_ that you got lucky, doesn't mean that you actually did. The art of strategy often looks like getting lucky.

    For instance, Bill Parcells made a very successful career out of what some people initially thought was getting lucky. He avoided drafting players who got injured ... so his teams looked workmanlike but had fewer superstars. He rarely gambled on a guy and found a gem. Instead, he focused on guys who wouldn't get injured, so he had fewer injuries later in the year. He concentrated on better preparation during the offseason so his teams were physically stronger and had more stamina. He built a smashmouth team to churn clock and wear down his opponents. The shortened clock helped his speed-based 34 defense stay fresh and aggressive. His physical offense wore down the opposing defenses with overpowering size, constant short gains and long drives, lots and lots of plays, and eventually, exposed the stamina advantage Parcells teams had in the 4th quarter. So he had a lot of close games that he won at the end. People thought his results would eventually see a regression to the mean as well. The flaw in their logic, was that they failed to see his design. They failed to understand his strategy was a holistic approach to the game being 60 clock minutes. He won not because of his superior talent, but rather because he manipulated the game to turn on the elements where his team had the comparative advantage.

    New England did this to Atlanta in the Super Bowl. Gase noted that, and did it to Atlanta as well. Will it work every time? No, definitely not. But it also isn't random chance. So, expecting a regression to the mean might be misplaced with games like that one. I do think that Gase is smarter than the aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaverage bear. (don't worry, you're too young to get that reference, but it made me smile to write it:)) I do think that Gase is likely to win more than 50% of the close games over the long term. But, losing Ajayi hurts his chances, IMHO.
     
  4. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    Good question! Well ... I'm not sure, but I would be willing to find out.

    I was swamped with work (still am really) and missed the Monday night game (debacle) vs. Carolina. I heard Jesse Davis played OK at RT. I'm hoping that is true, because I do think we need to revamp 4 of the 5 OL positions, so having an alternative that doesn't suck at RT would be a helpful starting point. If our backups are Brendel at C and Davis at RT/G, then I think I can live with that. But still, we would likely need 2 or 3 new starters from the draft and FA. And that assumes Larsen or Asiata can earn and deserve a starting spot at one of the G's.
     

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