Draft player or need?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by syborg, Jan 30, 2014.

  1. syborg

    syborg Rookie

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    You are drafting for your NFL team.. your biggest need is OT but the best player on the board is a WR - would you draft opposed to need in order to get the best player (the WR) out there and use FA to get your 'need' or do you draft directly to need regardless of who is on the board.... after all you have perfectly good WRs in place already so why spend the big bucks on the new WR in an early round and miss out on your big need on the line??

    Thoughts??
     
  2. Mudder1310

    Mudder1310 A True Fan

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    How good is the remaining O lineman? I mean, let's say you're looking at Taylor Lewan or Mike Evans, pretty much the number 3 O lineman and 1 WR. You have to ask yourself if their differences are wide enough to go for Evans over Lewan. Frankly I think at 19 Miami is going to be looking at Zack Martin v. players like Ebron, Pryor, or Benjamin. At that point all three of the non linemen are better than Martin so you take one of them.

    Alright. Let's say it's Lewan and the best player on the board is Blake Bortles. Does Miami take a QB in the first? Probably not, and at that point you have the same issue as the second scenario, but now you have an option of trading back, adding picks, because someone wants Bortles.
     
  3. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter

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    I don't think it's that black and white. There are a lot of factors that play into a selection. Of the available OTs how many are a scheme fit for the ZBS? If you don't take an OT in the 1st round what is the likelihood you can grab one in a later round that also fits the scheme? If you select a position that is not your greatest need then how does he fit into the plans for the upcoming season? How and when will you address the needs of the team/roster during the draft? Contingency, contingency, contingency.

    IMO if it was the absolute best rated player on your board is WR when your pick is up and he's a sure fire, can't miss prospect then I draft him if all the OTs are off the board. No one knows how Brandon Gibson or Binns will look when they rejoin the team next year coming off of ACL surgery. It may cause you to have to overdraft a position of need later but if there's a chance to get an elite skill position player, which we have very few of, I think you make that call.

    Realistically I don't see a WR in this draft worthy of the #19 overall pick. Sammy Watkins will probably be gone in the top 15, after that you're looking at Marqise Lee who's a lot like Mike Wallace to me except a better route runner but you have major concerns over durability with him, he's also not very physical and you wonder how he'll do against press coverage (which we see a lot in this division) and Mike Evans who I'm not high on...big bodied receiver, kind of stiff, not a very good route runner, not really a good fit for this offense. He looks good playing "backyard football" with Manziel who ad-libs a lot of plays but in a more structured setting...don't know. I'm not a fan of Kelvin Benjamin either and there will be higher rated players at #19 than him.
     
  4. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    At 19, I'd consider Allen Robinson at a push, but that's about it. As you say, there are better players in other positions.
     
  5. Roman529

    Roman529 Moon Runner / The 3 AM Crew

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    I used to think that drafting BIGGEST NEED was more important than drafting the BEST PLAYERS. But how far has this really gotten us? I think Ireland did not draft either our biggest need, nor did he take the best players on the board in his series of drafts over the years.

    To me the main reason we cannot compete with teams like the Patriots, Denver, etc., is our offense just doesn't put up enough points. You can be an average team defensively and win, but if you cannot score points with the way the NFL is currently set up, you are not going to win.

    I think we need to add another top WR, a solid TE and a quality RB...nothing against Miller and the other RB's, but we need guys who can catch the ball out of the backfield, and make some big plays.

    I would focus on getting weapons on offense, and get the O-lineman through free agency or later draft picks.
     
  6. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    I don't believe in late decisions. In an ideal world, a general manager would be able to ignore the makeup of his team and rank the prospects first to last, and then robotically select the highest guy remaining. Even if you ended up with lopsided numbers at the same position in certain years I'm confident it would pay off handsomely, even if the fanbase might scream.

    Of course, I'm a systems guy. I believe in virtually anything that lessens subjectivity. There are some metrics showing up in regard to college players that look quite promising. In regard to wide receivers I've seen mentions of drop percentages and yards after catch and similar. I still think it's dangerous to get carried away with that and ignore long term excellence. For example, Marquise Lee may have dropped passes in bunches this year but he's been a star every year since I heard his name. I remember the Canes recruiting him passionately along with all the powerhouse schools. Then it translated quickly to college when he starred as a freshman. You want to believe he can't catch with his hands but then as a rookie he'll be what he's always been...one of the best on the field.
     
  7. syborg

    syborg Rookie

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    I think folks were relating my OP to what is actually happening with the Dolphins.. I am not it was a hypothetical.. what would YOU do drafting for an NFL team.. how would YOU approach the draft and how would YOU choose the players you picked.. would you base it purely no the needs of the team or on the best player left in the draft pool whether that be a WR a RB a CB a LB or other position when what you NEEDED was perhaps an OT or a TE or a DE for example...
     
  8. normaniii

    normaniii A True Fan

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    You pick for need. Surely last year strengthens that argument. We had 3 legitimate pass rushing DE's, but a piss poor O'line which cost us a chance of playoffs and had our No.1 priority RT, running for his life all season.

    What I would do though is handle re-signings and FA, so that your perceived needs are the strength of the draft.

    This year I would double up on 4 positions, WR, OT, DT & CB, with us targeting one of the OT's in 1st round.
     
  9. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Unless Miami develops a clear vision of what they want the team to look like, this argument is kind of . . . moot. You draft players who fit what you're doing. It's the reason Seattle has the best secondary with one 1st RD player, two 5th RD players, and one 6th RD player starting in their secondary. When you look along the Seattle D, the high draft picks are few and far between. The D-line with its amazing pass rushing depth doesn't have a 1st RD pick; it does have multiple UDFA's. When you look at the LB unit, you have one 1st RD pick in Bruce Irvin, a 2nd in Wagner, and a 4th in Wright. So this D that is as good as any in recent memory has two 1st RD picks and one 2nd. How does that happen? Are they finding gems that everyone missed out on? To some extent, yes, but the bigger story is that they have a clear vision of what they need a player to do well, so they can take flawed prospects (Richard Sherman btw was abused during Senior Bowl week) and make them All Pros or huge contributors in that system. It's the reason every year, people are really blah about Seattle's drafts. They note all the areas where their picks struggled and talk about how they reached on almost every pick. The exception would be the Okung/Thomas draft. It's the reason teams try to copy their big DB approach and end up looking like fools, because their big CB's don't seem to play as well for some reason.

    I was really hoping that Miami would find a way to poach someone from the Seattle organization this off season. There's more than one way to get it done, but it has to be a physical brand, and you have to have a clear vision for what you're doing. Our entire organization seems to stumble through everything we do without any direction.
     
  10. Buff

    Buff From a galaxy far far away.... Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Mmm. 19 pick. Bortels or Manziel is there. Probably the BPA. Do we take them.....no. We trade back because someone will want them. We take the BPA where we are thin at. O/L, ILB, WR perhaps. It's not black and white, as much as we would like it too be.

    Last year when we took Jordan, I was pretty happy because in 2 years time Wake will be slowing down and DJ will be a full time replacement with experience to be a leader on the d line.
     
  11. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    If Manziel is there at 19, we should absolutely draft him, but he won't be.
     
  12. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter

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    Some people love that kid...I don't. Regardless he won't make it past Cleveland. Everyone knows Mike Lombardi loves the kid.
     
  13. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Everyone on here should read this post.

    It's not just about system fits, it's about accentuating the best traits of each player, within an overall structure and vision for the team.
     
  14. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP

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    I pretty much agree. You win with playmakers and guys that can score points. I'd not go WR at 19 tho. I'd rather go TE and the RB and WR later on.I agree also on trying to get at least 2 starting o-linemen in free agency.

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  15. jlfin

    jlfin old pro

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    You draft BPA. The draft is an inexact science. Roughly 1/3 of 1st rd picks are busts or never live up to their draft status. You reduce your risk of missing on a 1st rd pick when you take the highest graded player. If you draft for need (especially if you reach) and the player is a bust, then you are back at square one. In many ways, the draft is a crapshoot, so you have to play the odds. First and foremost you want good football players. Its better to stockpile talent because you can always trade away in a position of depth.
    After Shula had success in the 1990 draft with Richmond Webb and Keith Sims, he thought he could repeat his success a few yrs later on the right side of the O line. He wanted Korey Stringer, but the Vikes took him a few picks before. Shula then reached and drafted Billy Milner (LT). He followed that up in the 2nd rd with another reach in Andrew Green (G). Neither player made an impact in the league.
    Even though O line was a need, Shula would have been better off picking the BPA and increasing the overall talent on the team.
     
  16. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Shula was a bumbling fool by the 1990s. He quickly abandoned everything that made him a HOF coach after drafting Marino. Unfortunately/fortunately, Marino was great enough to make things seem better than they were. We were toward the top of the league in rushing attempts and D almost every season before we drafted Marino. After that . . . complete 180.
     
  17. jlfin

    jlfin old pro

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    And that has absolutely nothing to do with the point of my post. Stay focused we are discussing need vs bpa.
     
  18. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I'll take whichever conversational detours I like. Thanks.

    As to YOUR point, it's simplistic. It's been covered on these forums, but teams use horizontal draft boards. Between Sammy Watkins and Greg Robinson, who is better? Which would be BPA? You can make cases for either, but ultimately, you're going to draft either based on what you're trying to accomplish within your system.

    If you're looking for a RB and an OT and the best RB available and the best OT available rate out similarly, you look at who you project to be available at your next pick at those positions. For example: I can draft Lewan or Hill at 19, but drop off after Hill is significantly steeper than the drop off at OT after Lewan. More specifically, you're drafting guys who will look good in YOUR system.

    It's rare that there is a player available who is just clearly better than all the other players available. This is talk you get between fans that say I want all the best guys on my team' - without realizing that most of these players' success will be heavily dependent upon the system they're drafted to. Good teams draft players who will look better in their system than they would in most other systems. THAT'S how you get value - not by being the "smartest" kid at the lunch table.
     
  19. jlfin

    jlfin old pro

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    You have a reading comprehension problem. Obviously, there are guys in different positions who have a similar grade. In that instance, all things being equal you draft for need/ fit. My point (if you bothered to read my entire post) was that you dont REACH simply to fill a need.
    As to Shula being a bumbling fool, that is just a moronic statement from you. Shula clearly lost some of his passion when his 1st wife Dorothy battled (and ultimately succumbed) to breast cancer. He kept much of that private.
    The fact that you would take such a classless cheap shot at such an honorable man says a lot about you.
     
  20. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I read your entire post. It said you draft BPA, gave benefits for stockpiling talent, and gave an example of a team drafting bad players too early.

    The point is that need vs BPA is not the correct argument. The reason good teams seem to continue to find good players - in all rounds - is that they have a clear vision of what they need out of a player. You don't get guys like Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor late in the draft, because everyone else just missed out on these great players. You get them, because you understand their strengths and weaknesses and know how they'll work in your system and which other types of players you'll need to surround them with.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/40312/post-draft-grades-seattle-seahawks

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/64314/an-early-word-on-2012-nfl-draft-grades

    People RARELY accuse the Seahawks of drafting the BPA. By now, people are hesitant to criticize them, because they keep turning out some of the best players in the league. They're not drafting for "need" either. They're not plugging holes. They're drafting specific types of players that fit their system. If you have a clear vision and any type of talent at the GM position, you're going to have successful drafts (assuming that vision is worth a damn).
     
  21. Mudder1310

    Mudder1310 A True Fan

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    I think everyone panned them taking Bruce Irvin so early, but he a major contributor on the Seahawk front. They've got some draft mojo going for sure.
     
  22. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    In general, I feel like you draft the best player. Not going best player has really hurt Miami over the years. We can give a lot of examples, but a few that stand out are passing on Vince Wilfork for Vernon Carey, Fletcher over Drew Brees, trading out of R1 and missing on Randy Moss, Ted Ginn over Willis/Revis etc.

    In this draft, I think Miami can fill their offensive line needs in R2-R4 and go best player in R1 (Ebron, Mosley, Benjamin).
     
  23. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    Very well said. I didn't realize how well Seattle has done in the middle rounds. That is outstanding. I do remember Jimmy Johnson in Dallas finding those quick linebackers who could cover in mid to later rounds. At that time, most teams were going bigger at that position so their "fit" was against the grain.

    I know this might sound funny in a passing era, but going agains the grain might be building a physical offensive line that can pound people in the running game and, at the very least, do better than league average in short-yardage situations. It seems NE is trending that way a bit.
     
  24. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    No kidding. It was driving me nuts. I have no idea how Shula is credited with adapting his game during the Marino years instead of throwing away all the proven criteria.

    In the 1994 playoff game at San Diego, we ran the ball 8 times to 40 for the Chargers, despite Miami leading virtually the entire game, often by wide margin. The announcers weren't mentioning it but I was charting it. I was throwing my pen against the wall as the gap widened. It made for an easy halftime bet on San Diego but as a Dolphin fan I was disgusted.

    Anyway, I don't believe in drafting for your system. That adds another subjective variable. Seattle may be a convenient focal point now but there aren't too many examples. I really think it's overblown anyways. They happened to find terrific players who would fit in virtually any scheme but since they are thriving all the arrows are pointing upward and they can take credit for drafting toward their formula.

    Best player available is as close to lack of decision making as possible. The problem with drafting for need is that it's too easy to convince yourself that the need guy is nearby the best player. The general manager will rationalize that the left tackle is virtually the same caliber as that cornerback when really the margin is quite distinct, and there would be no question about it other than the desperate need for the specific position.
     
  25. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I remember watching that game with my dad at a Round Table Pizza is Vista, CA. I took that loss pretty hard for a 10 year old.

    Obviously, there's going to be a fair amount of subjectivity when evaluating players, and I can appreciate the desire to limit it. But I believe the stronger the vision for your team (this obviously highlights the importance of a working relationship with HC and GM), the less you submit your process to subjectivity.

    Rather than viewing a see of players, you're looking to identify particular traits that your system needs to succeed. Generally speaking, I think good teams do this well at a handful of positions - rather than for their entire team. The Packers did it really well with WR's, the Steelers with LB's (until recently). You're not going to get Calvin Johnson in the 2nd or 3rd, and you're not going to get Derrick Thomas in the later rounds. But if you can identify the key traits that make your system tick, you can forgive flaws and accentuate strengths. To me, that's how you get the greatest value out of the draft. You're not going to get Revis in the 5th. If you watched the Senior Bowl and told me that Richard Sherman would be the best CB in the NFL, I'd have told you to put down the paint thinner.

    Especially with late-RD draft picks, all these guys have glaring flaws/reasons to fail. Without a clear vision for what you want for your team and out of each position, you're talking a feather and a lottery ticket. On that note, I don't believe in drafting for need. I believe in acquiring the players who best fit your vision for your team - different from BPA, because the vision/system is the alpha.
     

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