For what it's worth, Josh Allen stole the show at the Senior Bowl | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

For what it's worth, Josh Allen stole the show at the Senior Bowl

Josh Allen definitely looked great and obviously stood out with his arm. No debating that, amazing arm talent.

But that was never in question, so most of us had high expectations for him and he met those expectations and showed good accuracy.

But I never heard of the kid from Richmond, thought he showed good poise and good accuracy. He stole the show for me because of this.

So for me, it was really about expectations and performance.
 
I just can't get past the Joey Harrington comparison with Josh Allen. Their college stats and hype are way too similar for my liking. Sure they both showed some brilliance but stats don't lie.

Career Passing Stats NCAA/NFL
Joey Harrington
Completion % 55.2 / 56.1
TD/INT Ratio 59/23 / 79/85
Yards/Attempt 7.4 / 5.8

Josh Allen
Completion % 56.2
TD/INT Ratio 44/21
Yards/Attempt 7.8
 
Michigan Mike said:
I just can't get past the Joey Harrington comparison with Josh Allen. Their college stats and hype are way too similar for my liking. Sure they both showed some brilliance but stats don't lie.

Career Passing Stats NCAA/NFL
Joey Harrington
Completion % 55.2 / 56.1
TD/INT Ratio 59/23 / 79/85
Yards/Attempt 7.4 / 5.8

Josh Allen
Completion % 56.2
TD/INT Ratio 44/21
Yards/Attempt 7.8
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I think that's a little bit of the issue here, as I've said many times. Evaluating stats is not evaluating quarterbacks. Let's be clear here...they're two completely different things.

You can compare Joey Harrington's college stats against the college stats of dozens of highly successful NFL quarterbacks that had similar college stats. In other words, what good did that do?

You can compare the college stats of pro bowl and HOF NFL quarterbacks with college stats with hundreds of quarterbacks who had very similar college stats that simply didn't turn out to be successful pros. Again, what good did it do?

If anybody looks at Josh Allen and the first thing that pops into their head is Joey Harrington, then that's just what they see. We see what we see. Evaluating human beings at something they're good at is an art for sure. There is no scientific method to do it and be accurate. It's an art form.

Some people can do it, some can't. That's why it's an art. Just like some people can just draw incredible art work, and some can't.

But the main thing to keep in mind when watching players and evaluating them...especially young quarterbacks, is that what you see now isn't necessarily what they're going to be.

Anybody can watch a game or look at stats and say well that QB had a bad game...or that QB isn't any good. Or that QB had a good game or that one looked good. It changes depending on what game you watched or what stats you're looking at.

Anybody can do that.

The hard part is projecting how a kid's skills translate. Is he going to be good 5 years from now or not? If so, how much better is he going to be 5 years from now? Accurately gauging that chasm of differential.

Unfortunately, you can't coach and develope the stats he brings. All you can coach and develope are the skills he brings. The stats stay in college for the record books. Good stats or bad stats...they don't come with him.
 
FSU Truth said:
Well consider one matters more than the other, obviously I mean the ability to throw the ball to a specific spot...what good would a pitcher be is he threw the ball 100 MPH but had a hard time keeping it in the strike zone.

Allen hype train is odd...Jeff George...
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It seems Jeff George is one of the most misremembered qbs. Did he live up to his hype and being the overall number one pick? No. But he did have a 12 year nfl career including some pretty good years. He led the league in yards was in the top 5 in qb rating and tds thrown. Even won in the playoffs.

He wasn’t Ryan leaf or Jamarcus Russell. I still think he had the best arm I’ve ever seen. He could throw the ball as hard and as far as farve and as effortless and with a release as quick as Marino’s.

He was just a prima Donna and had a me first attitude
 
HarryBagpipe said:
It seems Jeff George is one of the most misremembered qbs. Did he live up to his hype and being the overall number one pick? No. But he did have a 12 year nfl career including some pretty good years. He led the league in yards was in the top 5 in qb rating and tds thrown. Even won in the playoffs.

He wasn’t Ryan leaf or Jamarcus Russell. I still think he had the best arm I’ve ever seen. He could throw the ball as hard and as far as farve and as effortless and with a release as quick as Marino’s.

He was just a prima Donna and had a me first attitude
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No question Jeff George is one of the most misremembered quarterbacks around here. There were years he looked like the best QB in the NFL. Just completely uncoachable. That was his demise.

I can say with complete confidence George had the biggest arm I've ever seen. Still to this day.

Years ago I used to put up a video clip of George throwing a bomb to the fastest guy in the NFL at the time (James Jett) dead into a 30 mph at the Meadowlands. Perfect.

It was one of the most impressive throws ever made in the NFL.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
No question Jeff George is one of the most misremembered quarterbacks around here. There were years he looked like the best QB in the NFL. Just completely uncoachable. That was his demise.

I can say with complete confidence George had the biggest arm I've ever seen. Still to this day.

Years ago I used to put up a video clip of George throwing a bomb to the fastest guy in the NFL at the time (James Jett) dead into a 30 mph at the Meadowlands. Perfect.

It was one of the most impressive throws ever made in the NFL.
Click to expand...

Yep. He looked like an all pro in minny when he lead his team to the playoffs and put up 37 against the super bowl champ rams in a loss. If his team didn’t run into that juggernaut, it’s not a stretch to say he would of won a super bowl. He looked that good. Unfortuantely , like you said, he was uncoachable.
 
HarryBagpipe said:
It seems Jeff George is one of the most misremembered qbs. Did he live up to his hype and being the overall number one pick? No. But he did have a 12 year nfl career including some pretty good years. He led the league in yards was in the top 5 in qb rating and tds thrown. Even won in the playoffs.

He wasn’t Ryan leaf or Jamarcus Russell. I still think he had the best arm I’ve ever seen. He could throw the ball as hard and as far as farve and as effortless and with a release as quick as Marino’s.

He was just a prima Donna and had a me first attitude
Click to expand...

I brought him up as someone who had insane arm talent but also had an issue with accuracy. I think he ended up only starting a few season but served really well as a backup. The point I was making is that it is more than just arm talent. From what I remember he was also a player who lacked intellect. Grated that lack of intellect does not seem to apply to Allen, but history tells us that a player who was not accurate in college, tends to not be in the NFL. The team that takes Allen is going to have to give him time to learn before putting him out there...so much needs to be fixed and I doubt the team that takes him will do it properly leading him to potentially have a below average career.

Jeff George found success for a few years about 5 years into his career, by that time he was more of a band-aid fix for a team as opposed to one you can build around.
 
That kids a lock to go top 6 and they will all line up to get a chance to speed up his foot work and say they can fix his consistency issues.

Hell he’s a plus athlete too.

A absolute lock. If I’m a team that needs a qb hell yeah I’m taking a chance on that
 
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TedSlimmJr said:
I think that's a little bit of the issue here, as I've said many times. Evaluating stats is not evaluating quarterbacks. Let's be clear here...they're two completely different things.

You can compare Joey Harrington's college stats against the college stats of dozens of highly successful NFL quarterbacks that had similar college stats. In other words, what good did that do?

You can compare the college stats of pro bowl and HOF NFL quarterbacks with college stats with hundreds of quarterbacks who had very similar college stats that simply didn't turn out to be successful pros. Again, what good did it do?

If anybody looks at Josh Allen and the first thing that pops into their head is Joey Harrington, then that's just what they see. We see what we see. Evaluating human beings at something they're good at is an art for sure. There is no scientific method to do it and be accurate. It's an art form.

Some people can do it, some can't. That's why it's an art. Just like some people can just draw incredible art work, and some can't.

But the main thing to keep in mind when watching players and evaluating them...especially young quarterbacks, is that what you see now isn't necessarily what they're going to be.

Anybody can watch a game or look at stats and say well that QB had a bad game...or that QB isn't any good. Or that QB had a good game or that one looked good. It changes depending on what game you watched or what stats you're looking at.

Anybody can do that.

The hard part is projecting how a kid's skills translate. Is he going to be good 5 years from now or not? If so, how much better is he going to be 5 years from now? Accurately gauging that chasm of differential.

Unfortunately, you can't coach and develope the stats he brings. All you can coach and develope are the skills he brings. The stats stay in college for the record books. Good stats or bad stats...they don't come with him.
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Actually majority of the successful qbs put up above average stats in college, Other than Brett Favre QBs with this low a completion pct in college never work out in the NFL.
 
Jerrysanders said:
Actually majority of the successful qbs put up above average stats in college, Other than Brett Favre QBs with this low a completion pct in college never work out in the NFL.
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Wasnt Tom Brady a nobody in college? That's only 1 case of course
 
nick1 said:
Wasnt Tom Brady a nobody in college? That's only 1 case of course
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There is a reason he dropped to the round he did.

Also, I think with any argument you can find anomalies...players that go against the status quo, but I think if you look at trends over a long period of time you will find that most really successful QBs were so in college.

Here is a nice article on QBs and evaluations...

https://www.theringer.com/2017/4/5/...deshaun-watson-mitchell-trubisky-6e0d45a52fa5

So he flipped the paradigm: Instead of evaluating what a young QB could bring to his team, Walsh evaluated how a quarterback could excel in his West Coast offense. His cheat sheet demanded the following things: a quick-footed passer; a rhythm thrower; athletic movement; toughness; a winning pedigree; and someone who instinctively knew how to play quarterback. He scouted inside out, not outside in.

Another Hall of Fame coach created a similar cheat sheet: Bill Parcells. He wanted a three-year starter. He wanted a senior in college, someone who graduated. He wanted a player who started at least 30 games, with 23 or more wins, and at least a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Finally, he wanted a 60 percent passer.
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The author of the article mentions that neither list mentions "arm strength"...They wanted players who were successful and productive. I am not saying that this is the authority on what you should look for in a QB, but I think the idea that you want someone who has experience leading a team, did so well, and have the number to back it up, should outweigh "potential".
 
nick1 said:
Wasnt Tom Brady a nobody in college? That's only 1 case of course
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He didn't say anything about being a nobody. He's talking about stats.

Tom Brady wasn't a nobody in college. The problem was Lloyd Carr letting Drew Henson go dig a hole for Michigan and then turn around and ask Brady to go in there and dig em out.

Watch Brady in the 2000 Orange Bowl against Alabama. Shaun Alexander was running all over Michigan...Brady led Michigan back from a 14 point deficit...twice.

He was a nobody to NFL fans. Hell, most of these kids are a nobody to NFL fans because they don't watch college football. Although they pretend they do when draft time rolls around. Brady wasn't a nobody if you watched college football.
 
FSU Truth said:
There is a reason he dropped to the round he did.

Also, I think with any argument you can find anomalies...players that go against the status quo, but I think if you look at trends over a long period of time you will find that most really successful QBs were so in college.

Here is a nice article on QBs and evaluations...

https://www.theringer.com/2017/4/5/...deshaun-watson-mitchell-trubisky-6e0d45a52fa5



The author of the article mentions that neither list mentions "arm strength"...They wanted players who were successful and productive. I am not saying that this is the authority on what you should look for in a QB, but I think the idea that you want someone who has experience leading a team, did so well, and have the number to back it up, should outweigh "potential".
Click to expand...


It's all still just potential no matter what you're focusing on. Whether it's wins, stats or arm strength.

The key is knowing when to emphasize one of em and when to ignore one of em. What does your gut tell you...
 
The stat thing bothers me. It's so bass ackward. People THINK it's statistical. It's not. It's just not valid on a scientific basis.

People look at a group of quarterbacks they deem successful, often weeding out some quarterbacks that are/were just as successful, because they don't quite fit the narrative. What they're left with is very often a SMALL sample pool, from which they start drawing up statistical trends. Then they make statements like "no QB that has succeeded ever looked like X" which is a completely daft approach to drawing conclusions about statistical trends and correlations.

It's not academically valid, that's for damn sure. It's guys who stayed at a Holiday Inn Express trying to sound smart and make their arguments valid without having a god damn clue what they're trying to do.

You know what, if you really want to do this, go plot correlations between all college quarterbacks, relating their completion percentages, to NFL production. Then show me the p-values. I guarantee, absolutely guarantee, that you will find a p-value that carries with it no assumption of a relationship, whatsoever.
 
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