Hurricane Irma Only thread | Page 22 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Hurricane Irma Only thread

Sons Of Shula said:
5pm update: Be aware that the projection has changed to a more Westerly path straight down the middle of Florida.

ECMWF: https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-10-21,30.194,-81.601,5





*A reminder that ECMWF updates occur every six hours at 5 and 11. Obviously the closer it gets, the less variance for error.
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Slight correction.
The NHC forecast is every 6 hours.
The ECMWF only runs twice a day (I believe it is at noon and midnight). It takes their super computer 8 hours to run one forecast. One ECMWF run is used for two model consensus updates.
 
The Tannehills Have Eyes said:
It's not done running. Check the link above for 48 at 6 hour intervals. Still waiting for the full 72 hour Euro.
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phins_4_ever said:
Slight correction.
The NHC forecast is every 6 hours.
The ECMWF only runs twice a day (I believe it is at noon and midnight). It takes their super computer 8 hours to run one forecast. One ECMWF run is used for two model consensus updates.
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Thanks gentlemen for the clarifications.
 
Sons Of Shula said:
Thanks gentlemen for the clarifications.
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Like I said I am not sure on the time of the ECMWF. I got the 12am/12pm on a picture from one of the runs. It was listed at 1200z and 0000z which means zulu or GMT. That would actually be our 7am est and 7pm est. Which makes sense because the NHC gave a couple times on their discussion (best info) at the 11 hour the note 'based on the latest ECMWF run".
I can only recommend the Discussion by the NHC with every forecast. It is top info and explains intensity, future track and why things are the way they are. It completely takes out all the BS.
Here is the last one as an example:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/080300.shtml?
 
This latest euro model is easily the best one for Miami in the last 24 hours, especially compared to the recent GFS model.
 
Isn't the northeast side of the eye confirmed the highest wind speeds? **** me. There no good way this can turn aside from riding the EC and staying mostly offshore which now seems extremely unlikely.

We get slammed in every which way possible.
 
Headed to the Publix on Sunrise & University in Plantation now to get more water. I'll report what I find. Amazing that I had a gravity filter for years and never got to use it in a situation like this. I threw it out earlier this year because of rust, and of course that's when the hurricane comes. That ProPur filter was excellent.
 
Michael Scott said:
Isn't the northeast side of the eye confirmed the highest wind speeds? **** me. There no good way this can turn aside from riding the EC and staying mostly offshore which now seems extremely unlikely.

We get slammed in every which way possible.
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I forgot to respond to one of your other posts. What part of Jamaica are you from? My people are from St. Catherine.
 
No water. Employees told me they're not told when the trucks come in. Great strategy, Publix. Make people dart around looking for water instead of coordinating with management to get an established time. Very sloppy. Fortunately, I have water already, but I like to be extra prepared just in case.
 
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