Hyde5: Five Dolphins thoughts from the Super Bowl

[Nublar7]

Because the oddsmakers have been so wrong to dismiss the Dolphins regularly over the last 5 or 6 years?

Why even pay attention to NFL odds for the 2013 season at this point? They don't know which free agents will be re-signed, which new ones will come in and what the draft will look like. Waste of time to even glance at Vegas odds at this point. Just like Power Rankings for next year is a waste of time.

 

[SR 7]

I took away 4 things from the playoffs...

1) teams elevated their game to a level that Miami is still no where near. We are trying to reach the level these playoffs teams were at during the season so to hope they do that AND raise their game to another level for the playoffs is asking to much from thsi roster and team, especially from this GM.

2) Miami lacks DB Playmakers, DL playmakers, WRs, TE, O line and one of the most important ones, playing lights out defense with 8 minutes or less left in teh game and making sure you pull this victory out. Miami cracks on the last 8 minutes on defense dating back to the 2001 season.

3) These teams showed that 1) they have a good defense and 2) they can score at WILl and make plays when there is nothing there for them.

4) you need a team where the defense is good enough to keep the game in check and the offense is good enough to drop 35 pts a game if need be. The days of scoring 13 points and giving up 16 to win are long gone. All these games were explosive games. Knowing Ireland and how he "addressed speed" last time around when we were desperate via drafting Gates and calling it a day, I can see Miami signing 1 WR with speed and assuming the rest is history we are SB bound. We need a #1, a #2, and a TE that is very good. He wont get all 3 you can count on that.

When the 9ers were at the 5 yard line in the final 2, I thought to myself if this was the Miami defense that the 9ers were up against, all they would do is a QB Draw and the QB would walk in for the TD because Miami has given that easy play up for a loss maybe 6 times in the last 5 years. Ravens CRUSHHHHHED the 9ers on the run and plays sound defense.

 

[hoops]

as for the miami odds at this point hell i don't have a problem with it nor do i really care...heck the nfl just voted fools gold as it's nfl offensive rookie of the year...and thinks kaeps a franchise qb...

ha ha...

 

[SR 7]

Why even pay attention to NFL odds for the 2013 season at this point? They don't know which free agents will be re-signed, which new ones will come in and what the draft will look like. Waste of time to even glance at Vegas odds at this point. Just like Power Rankings for next year is a waste of time.

You know why its worth a look? Because they know Miami wont do anythign that will make them a top 6 team in the NFL. Thats all that matters at the end of the day, being in the top 6, not the 7-9 we are showing progress in the NFL crap we hear all the time since 2001.

 

[Nublar7]

You know why its worth a look? Because they know Miami wont do anythign that will make them a top 6 team in the NFL. Thats all that matters at the end of the day, being in the top 6, not the 7-9 we are showing progress in the NFL crap we hear all the time since 2001.

They have NO IDEA what the team will do this offseason, neither do YOU. It is pointless to waste your time with vegas odds for the next season in early February.

 

[SR 7]

Kaep next year will NOT have the year he had this year.

Just as Vick hasn't since his return, just as Young never did after his, as Newton hasn't, as teh WC died, etc.

Once a team like the ravens figure out how to play against a specific type of QB, the rest of the league copy cats it and it usually ends that players career. Kaep can be good, but he wont be this Madden video game player he was this year just as Vick hasn't even come close to that since his great first year back run.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

What I took from this playoffs as a whole is how far the Dolphins are away. Even teams that the Dolphins had played against had clearly elevated their games during the playoffs in ways that I don't think the Dolphins would've been able to.

And now I see MGM's odds for the 2014 Super Bowl and they have the Dolphins at 50-1 odds, tied with Tampa Bay. Only the Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams, Browns, Cardinals, Raiders and Titans have worse odds.

I had the same impression, that the playoffs verified we're not even close. San Francisco and Seattle were far more advanced than we we faced them. I don't think we had another gear.

Keep in mind the whistles are swallowed in the secondary yet these teams still put up bushels of points. We have trouble scoring during the soft rules interpretation of the regular season.

I agree with Hyde that San Francisco seemed to be the better team. Among a sample of 10, I'd suspect they would win at least 7. I lost a bet on 49ers -3.5 but was thrilled the Ravens won. I'm a huge Ed Reed fan. His post game interviews on CBS and NFL Network were terrific. Last thing I wanted was 49ers to win but not cover, which nearly happened. Besides, the haters would have been out in force if the Ravens had blown that game. I could sense all the partially written threads, the ones attacking Ray Lewis. It would have been like the jubilation when Lebron James lost to the Mavericks two years ago. Lewis would have been mocked, and proclaimed the goat of the game. I don't like Lewis' post game themes, and I have no idea what his involvement was 12 years ago. But I don't like vehicles for the simplistic haters. It was marvelous when they were denied again. It's been a rough stretch for them, given the Heat title, election results, and now the Ray Lewis ringed send off.

I wouldn't put much stock in futures odds, at least not the number itself. They might be useful in teams in relation to each other, from a perception standpoint. But futures odds these days are notoriously low. You could probably double or triple every number on the back end to have a better feel for actual likelihood. Sportsbooks were burned big time by high odds on the 1987 Twins, and later the 1999 Rams. Those examples caused casino owners to demand less risk. Why give bettors 200/1 when they are willing to take 40/1 on the same team? You always have a steady stream of tourists walking into a sportsbook with their little crumbled sheet of paper, rescued from grandma's purse. Uncle Fred wants $20 on the Cubs and $20 on the Bears and $20 on the Blackhawks. You could punch out a 2/1 ticket on all three and nobody would care. They'll take it home and happily present it to Uncle Fred, who will happily accept the paperwork and root them in.

Among everything a sportsbook does, there is less sophistication in futures odds than anything else. There's no power rating that makes a team 20/1 instead of 30/1. It's merely feel, and a determination to keep everything low. Numbers move down all the time, but seldom up. Some joints never move a number up.

The sportsbooks had avoided being burned on high odds for quite a while until the Cardinals won the World Series recently. They weren't high odds to begin with, but when they were in bad shape late in the season some joints that maintain adjusted numbers assumed they had no chance and moved them way up, to 500/1 or beyond. A few guys took advantage of that and cashed big tickets. The chief Nevada oddsmaking firm sent out a related warning subsequently. A friend of mine who works in a sportsbook emailed me a copy of the memo. It basically screamed at the sportsbooks to follow the suggestions and not take things into their own hands. In other words, don't risk anything.

 

[Zounds]

Because the oddsmakers have been so wrong to dismiss the Dolphins regularly over the last 5 or 6 years?

Well yes, alluding to the Jets being 30-1 favorites vs the Dolphins being 50-1 favorites, they have been wrong.

 

[SR 7]

They have NO IDEA what the team will do this offseason, neither do YOU. It is pointless to waste your time with vegas odds for the next season in early February.

Its common sense actually, this team lacks so much talent taht it doesn't matter what they do this OFFSEASOn, they need more than 1 offseason to accomplish that.

Have you taken an outside look at this roster rather tahn that of a fan?

Burnett and Dansby are old, they are getting slower, they are not playmakers, they don't create they dont make game changing plays or impact plays so that right there hurts us, our DB are atrocious and that means all 4, you think MIami will replace 3 new CB? No. Clemons is as useless as they come. thats 5 DBs.

Misi is good vs the run and useless in every other phase of the game. How many times did you hear Bowmans name yesterday ? More in 1 game than I have in Misi or Burnetts tenure in Miami combined.

Our pass rusher is Odrick and Wake is getting old.

We need 2 GOOD GOOD WRs and 1 decent one because to me, bess is a #4 trying to be a slot WR which he can't do because of his lack fo speed, playmaking, and everything else required to get something more than a 1 yard RAC.

Our RB situatoin is a disaster outside of Mller. Thomas is a barbie playing football and Bush is likely gone.

Our TEs, 1 has an egg as a brain the other hasn't had 1 catch over 10 yards all year and hopefully is gone.

Our O line needs a VERY GOOD T, a LG, and a RG.

Now you think you can fix all that this year? Good luck this **** ain't Madden, its reality. People think its so easy to become good and a powerhouse. It is probably the hardest thing to do and Miami fans take it like we are 1 WR away from being very good.

 

[houtz]

Kaep next year will NOT have the year he had this year.

Just as Vick hasn't since his return, just as Young never did after his, as Newton hasn't, as teh WC died, etc.

Once a team like the ravens figure out how to play against a specific type of QB, the rest of the league copy cats it and it usually ends that players career. Kaep can be good, but he wont be this Madden video game player he was this year just as Vick hasn't even come close to that since his great first year back run.

Not sure what game you watched but the Ravens sure as hell didn't have an answer for that offense.

 

[hoops]

what the heck happened with aldon smith late in the season and postseason??? it was like the guy hit a wall...maybe justin smith getting hurt and taking off some of that heat played into things...after smith murdered us it was like he fell off big time...unable to bring down joe flacco in the backfield in space??? what the...

 

[SR 7]

Not sure what game you watched but the Ravens sure as hell didn't have an answer for that offense.

The 9ers came back from behind to win the game or a chacne to win the game after being shut out 17-21 pts a couple times. They started to score when teh defense took it down 1 notch and the 9ers played desperate. Untl they become desperate they are conservative and less explosive.

They scored because of good field position as well. The ravens on the other hand were bombing **** up left and rght as they have done consistently.

The ravnes also blew out the pats last round, does ANYONE here remember hte last tiem Miami Beat NE by more than 3-7 pts? And we are contenders now if we get a #1 WR? Oh please. This team does NOT have the mental make up of a champion. You want an example, take a look at Smith and Clemons. Have you seen 1 player on both of those defenses in the SB that has such a fear of hitting or even tackling someone? Nope. GOOD teams have GOOD players from A-V and solid players from W-Z. Miami has good players from A-H and the rest are somehow employed.

 

[hoops]

the ravens problem on d which luckily didn't end up biting them in the rear in this game was they have no consistent win edge pass rusher...haven't all year had one...have to blitz to get pressure...krugers the best guy at this stage but he's not a consistent win guy...he'd look good in miami as a #2 rusher though...suggs looked like a shell of himself coming off the achilles which i guess is to be expected...

surprised san fran didn't win more downhill in the running game...too much pistol imo although i understand why so much it helps kaep make easy reads against one on one looks an allows for him to see the guy open before he rips it...but i would think more i form downhill blow you off the ball with a lead fb would have been the way to go for san fran...

 

[Vertical Limit]

I already have an idea of what our team will be next year. I mean, how different has it been the past 9 years? No different at all, all of our GM's have sucked major dick. Until I see there's going to be change then I'll believe it. But until then, the Vegas odd's is on par with the past decade of Dolphins' football.

 

[Birdmond]

Hartline and Bess wouldn't have even sniffed the field in that game.

I just posted the same thing in the draft forum. LOL