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Intangibles or Luck? | The 2017 Dolphins Should be 2-4

Is it intangibles or luck?


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That poses an interesting question.

Is Gase a +2 wins coach out of every 16 games, or out of every six?

If he's a +2 wins coach out of every 16, he's already used them up this year.
It should be of the six we've played and I'll add that when Moore came in his YPA was 8.9.
 
Luck doesn't bother me. Every championship run in every sport REQUIRES a heavy dosage of luck throughout. I think it's more intangibles, however.
 
It's always a combination of things. The ball has bounced our way a few times but it has also gone the other way too. The team has a mind set that they can always win. Credit Gase with that because it starts there. We're not good enough to beat on teams but the team is playing 60 minutes every week. Lots of things have gone on that the team had to deal with already. No need to go over that list again. I don't believe this is a super bowl team at this point. Not strong enough up front on offense and playing our 3rd option at QB. Corners are very young at this point too and the pass rush is not consistent. But I believe we can make the playoffs if the team reaches it's potential. I don't believe in luck one way or the other but I believe sometimes you can a break and sometimes you don't

Ozzy rules!!
 
I'd hardly call it luck that we are 4-2 when we'd most likely be fielding an undefeated squad if our QB was available.

We are starting to see that our FO actually built a solid roster and if not for BAD luck, we'd be the talk of the NFL.

Most teams would absolutely crumble at the loss of their QB and ILB after investing so much in each to lead those units. Compound that with absolutely mind boggling distractions, ie Timmons, Forester.

Winning the last 3 games was literally against all odds, or so we thought.

And while we must wait until September 2018 to see the team we expect to have compete for SB titles, victories along the way continue to cement future capabilities of an Adam Gase lead franchise. Time to remove the Baltimore monkey off our backs and continue an ascend.
 
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Agreed. Actually think we could be 6-0. No way our offense with our QB doesn't hang 20+ on the Saints.

Funny I posted we'd be 6-0 or 5-1 with Tannehill on FB and got lambasted by fellow Dolphins fans. There's no way the offense would have looked as bad through the first 3 games, just no way. Whether that led to another win or 2 I guess is debatable but I don't think you can debate that the offense would have been better.
 
Since 2004, the year the league changed the rules to favor the offensive passing game, yards per pass attempt (YPA) differential and turnover differential have predicted 89% of the variation in win percentage in the NFL.

The 2017 Dolphins have a YPA differential of -1.6 yards, which places them in the 13th percentile in the league, meaning that 87% of the teams in the league (28 of the 32 of them) have been better than them in this area in 2017.

They have a turnover differential of -2, placing them just below the league average. That of course is nothing special.

Based on the above numbers, using an equation generated by the data from the 2004 through 2016 seasons, the Dolphins' predicted win percentage this season is 28.6%, which translates to 1.7 wins out of six games, or a 2-4 record when rounding up.

We all know they're 4-2, however.

So, what says the forum? Are the Dolphins doing it with some sort of intangibles, or is it mere luck?

If it's intangibles, what are they?
For christ sakes. With a little offense we could be 6-0. If you hold an opponent to 20 points your offense should be able to provide lousy 21 points.

#licensetocreatethreads
 
3-3 at worst. Chargers kicker had a kick that wasn't that difficult to make and they should've won. The only other what-if was the Titans game since Mariota was out. After the missed game at Miami he was pretty good at home vs. Indy (23-32 306 yds 1 TD 1 INT) but then he was average at Cleveland (21-34 203 yds 0 TD 0 INT).

In fact for the year Mariota only has 4 TDs and 4 INTs in 6 games played. He's only gone over 300 yds once. Every other game has been 256 yds or under.
 
Since 2004, the year the league changed the rules to favor the offensive passing game, yards per pass attempt (YPA) differential and turnover differential have predicted 89% of the variation in win percentage in the NFL.

The 2017 Dolphins have a YPA differential of -1.6 yards, which places them in the 13th percentile in the league, meaning that 87% of the teams in the league (28 of the 32 of them) have been better than them in this area in 2017.

They have a turnover differential of -2, placing them just below the league average. That of course is nothing special.

Based on the above numbers, using an equation generated by the data from the 2004 through 2016 seasons, the Dolphins' predicted win percentage this season is 28.6%, which translates to 1.7 wins out of six games, or a 2-4 record when rounding up.

We all know they're 4-2, however.

So, what says the forum? Are the Dolphins doing it with some sort of intangibles, or is it mere luck?

If it's intangibles, what are they?
latest
 
For christ sakes. With a little offense we could be 6-0. If you hold an opponent to 20 points your offense should be able to provide lousy 21 points.

#licensetocreatethreads


That's the point, however. The way the team actually is performing is almost always associated with a record of 2-4, not 4-2. You're presenting a hypothetical based on what could be happening, but isn't.
 
Agreed. Actually think we could be 6-0. No way our offense with our QB doesn't hang 20+ on the Saints.


And as I said just above, if that were the case, the statistics in the original post would likely be vastly different, and perhaps indeed associated with an expected record of 6-0.

The actual case, however, is that the team is functioning like a typical 2-4 team, in terms of the most important statistics in football, but has a 4-2 record. The question is, what explains that?
 
Since 2000 New England has won so many games they should have lost but won because they benefited from a bad call, or their opponent missed a FG or their opponent fumbled in the last second. No one said New England should be this record or that record or that New England is lucky. I’m just glad Miami is finally on the winning side of this now and not the team giving games away to teams like New England.
 
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