Intangibles or Luck? | The 2017 Dolphins Should be 2-4

[hoops]

I'd hardly call it luck that we are 4-2 when we'd most likely be fielding an undefeated squad if our QB was available.

We are starting to see that our FO actually built a solid roster and if not for BAD luck, we'd be the talk of the NFL.

Most teams would absolutely crumble at the loss of their QB and ILB after investing so much in each to lead those units. Compound that with absolutely mind boggling distractions, ie Timmons, Forester.

Winning the last 3 games was literally against all odds, or so we thought.

And while we must wait until September 2018 to see the team we expect to have compete for SB titles, victories along the way continue to cement future capabilities of an Adam Gase lead franchise. Time to remove the Baltimore monkey off our backs and continue an ascend.

Post of the day

 

[Vaark]

For christ sakes. With a little offense we could be 6-0. If you hold an opponent to 20 points your offense should be able to provide lousy 21 points.

#licensetocreatethreads

I think we can also look at this way:
based on Fins misfortunes, it's more likely attributable to "luck" that the Jets are 3-4 and not 2-5; ditto the Saints being 4-2 rather than 3-3.

 

[<O>]

Last year a lot of people said we were lucky and that luck would run out this year. Here we sit again at the end of the rainbow. At some point respect will drown out the luck noise.

And that suggests that intangibles are driving the bus, unless the unexpectedly good record falls off the cliff in the near future, however.

 

[phins_4_ever]

That's the point, however. The way the team actually is performing is almost always associated with a record of 2-4, not 4-2. You're presenting a hypothetical based on what could be happening, but isn't.

Do you actually read what you write?

 

[<O>]

I'd hardly call it luck that we are 4-2 when we'd most likely be fielding an undefeated squad if our QB was available.

The Dolphins currently have the worst offensive YPA in the league (5.2). So yes, they'd very likely be doing far better with Tannehill available, since his most recent YPA was much better, but their current record is nonetheless far better than would be expected with a mere 5.2 offensive YPA.

Again, something is accounting for the difference between what their record is, and what it's expected to be, based on the way they're performing.

 

[CalDolFan10x14]

That's the point, however. The way the team actually is performing is almost always associated with a record of 2-4, not 4-2. You're presenting a hypothetical based on what could be happening, but isn't.

Just like you saying we could be 2-4 instead of 4-2? :meh

 

[<O>]

Just like you saying we could be 2-4 instead of 4-2? :meh

I'm saying that based on 13 seasons and over 3,000 games of NFL football, the expected record for a team performing this way through six games is 2-4.

 

[phins_4_ever]

I'm saying that based on 13 seasons and over 3,000 games of NFL football, the expected record for a team performing this way through six games is 2-4.

Is your shou on the right foot?

 

[spiketex]

Some of us simply don't believe in the ephemeral concept of luck. It is complete BS. What I see is that Coach Gase appears to be good at inspiring the team to succeed in close games by making less mistakes. It isn't just luck.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Since 2004, the year the league changed the rules to favor the offensive passing game, yards per pass attempt (YPA) differential and turnover differential have predicted 89% of the variation in win percentage in the NFL.

The 2017 Dolphins have a YPA differential of -1.6 yards, which places them in the 13th percentile in the league, meaning that 87% of the teams in the league (28 of the 32 of them) have been better than them in this area in 2017.

They have a turnover differential of -2, placing them just below the league average. That of course is nothing special.

Based on the above numbers, using an equation generated by the data from the 2004 through 2016 seasons, the Dolphins' predicted win percentage this season is 28.6%, which translates to 1.7 wins out of six games, or a 2-4 record when rounding up.

We all know they're 4-2, however.

So, what says the forum? Are the Dolphins doing it with some sort of intangibles, or is it mere luck?

If it's intangibles, what are they?

The problem is Miami is two teams. One is the stubborn, run 'just because' in which case the stats apply. The other is the 4Q team where the emphasis is on scoring, in which case the stats don't apply. I think the fear of most fans is there will come a time where the 4Q mentality will be too late.

 

[<O>]

Some of us simply don't believe in the concept of luck. It is complete BS.

Here's another way of considering that notion: would you feel just as comfortable placing a bet on the Dolphins right now as you would on a far more typical 4-2 team?

If you wouldn't, then you must be considering the difference between the Dolphins and a typical 4-2 team as based at least to some degree on luck.

If indeed you believe luck doesn't exist, then you should be just as comfortable placing a bet on the Dolphins as you would on a typical 4-2 team.

 

[Daytona Fin]

I'm lucky a tree didn't fall on me at work.
I'm lucky my steering wheel didn't fall off while I was driving over the bridge on the way home.
I'm lucky there are no glass shards in the beer I am drinking now.

Nah, I'm not buying into luck

It's no luck that Younghoe Koo is a terrible kicker
It's no luck that we held on to victory at home vs Titans
It's no luck that we made second half adjustments vs Falcons
It's no luck the Jets were totally unprepared to face a different qb in the 4th quarter
It's no luck that we got our asses handed to ass in Europe and vs a divisional opponent up north

YPA and turnovers do not control the outcome of every game. Can they point to a direction, sure but they have nothing to do with being lucky or not, if you believe in that sort of thing.

 

[CalDolFan10x14]

I'm saying that based on 13 seasons and over 6,500 games of NFL football, the expected record for a team performing this way through six games is 2-4.

Oh boy :facepalm

 

[Spiff]

I understand <O>s point. Honestly I don’t think this team has played particularly well this season and it sure doesn’t feel like 4-2. The numbers <O> presents merely support that.

 

[Vaark]

If we only have to choose between the 2, it's clearly "intangibles" considering that Gase has created a team mindset of coming out on top and each win fuels that positive expectation. It's not an accident, but a statistically-reliable sample, that his teams have won so many 1 score games!

Statistics can be fun, and as the OP heard many times over his prior tenure here, can easily be skewed, manipulated or parsed to advance an agenda. Any exceptions can be explained away as "anomalies." The problem with this is that there's no anticipating how many anomalies surface on any given extrapolation. The WC Giants beating the undefeated Patriots is one easy but important example that pops to mind. Ditto the statistical certainty of most polls that Clinton would thrash Trump.

It's a fools errand, IMO, to let yourself get drawn down into the rabbit hole of statistics. We are 4-2 because we deserve to be that.. and that's the ****ing bottom-line.