Interesting Article on NFL Draft Strategy

[SWS84]

I was thinking about our pick at #12 and was curious if there was a sweet spot in the draft. I found this article http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/2/4/3950172/2013-nfl-draft-moving-up-by-trading-down-dallas-cowboys using a quick google search. It was written by a Cowboys fan, but it is a fairly interesting read on draft strategy never-the-less.

For the heck of it, I looked back at the 2010 draft when we traded down and took Odrick (please see attachment below). I can't remember all of the picks we got in return, but I think we at least picked up the 2nd rounder which ended up being Misi. After comparing the the CarAV of the players we could have had to Odrick and Misi, it looks like we didn't get much of a return for trading down. By that, I mean we got 2 serviceable players, but no real difference maker. Perhaps the best strategy for a GM like Ireland is to not get too cute come draft time. If he sticks with the BPA and if he did his homework, hopefully, we will be okay.

Any thoughts on draft strategy?


(2010 NFL Draft snapshot from Pro-football-reference.com of the picks 1-47)

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Yeah, we passed on Earl Thomas and JPP to trade down. I still like Odrick as a DT . . . but Odrick + Misi + the LB (whose name escapes me) < ET or JPP.

 

[Firewall]

My conclusion from those graphs is: You can and are just as likely to find a "good" player from picks 18 to 50, with a slight albeit statistically significant increase in risk of 10-20%. This is sort of intuitive and not surprising.

 

[steviey013]

I kind of think that a team has to reach for the player it wants...better to reach a bit and get the guy you want instead of wait or trade down and lose that guy. Identify the player and get him! Who cares what Mel Kifer and the other pundits think on draft day. If he's there and you want him - get him. Perfect example this year may be Eifert...definitely a reach at 12, but if he's the guy, draft him. By taking a player "early" it can cause other players to be picked early, like Ertz...and then maybe you get a gem in the second that wouldn't otherwise be there.

 

[finfan54]

bingo!