Interesting Stat from watching Thursday Night Football

[sambrinson]

The Dolphins are second in the league for points scored on their opening drive. They're second only to the Philadelphia Eagles.

What do you take from this?

IMO it means the playcalling starts out agressive and we put points up. Then after we put points up our playcalling goes conservative. Just from watching the games, I've noticed this since '08 when the new regime came in and Henning started calling plays.

 

[Pinkboy]

What do I make of it ?

It means the Dolphins script their plays on the first drive and practice it all week.

But we have a moron for a head coach and an other at OC who have absolutely no "feel" for the game and how to adjust in-game.

Thankfully the Raiders have a coaching staff that is just as inept and played us in man-to-man the entire game.. They're the only team this year to have done so., The only other team was the packers, they played us in man but they adjusted at halftime. The scouting report on the dolphins is to play them in zone as Henne has always had trouble against it, but again, the raiders ignored it.

It also helped that Nnamdi played with a very bad ankle and missed half the game - plus having a horrible corner there who was a rookie 5th round pick in McFadden helped us greatly. Not to mention their 3rd nickel CB didn't play either and was out.

There are many factors involved as to why the Dolphins offense looked better last week. That won't happen every week though, as we've seen already this season.

 

[Chubby]

What do I make of it ?

It means the Dolphins script their plays on the first drive and practice it all week.

But we have a moron for a head coach and an other at OC who have absolutely no "feel" for the game and how to adjust in-game.

Changing his Depends is about the only half time adjustments Henning implements.
Chubbs

 

[ITS!MATEO]

Changing his Depends is the only half time adjustments Henning implements.
Chubbs

:clapping::lol2:

 

[NJPHINFAN79]

yea i think it shows that our OC has no ability to change his game plan according to what the defense is giving us.... does anyone else get frustrated that our first half always looks like the second half we never make any game adjustments great teams can make changes.

i may be in the minority here but i like T. Sporano I think he has the tools to be a good coach but he is still gun shy at pulling the triggers on guys like henning cause he just had B parcells finally let go of the strings. This team def has the talent to be better than 6-5 but we need to be able to make adjustments against the good teams to be able to get over the hump and beat them.

but i do think it is time for henning to go... just look what a coach can do i.e. nolan and the D. other than dansby we really didnt have many changes but he schemes well with the talent we have and can make ADJUSTMENTS....

 

[burger13]

What do I make of it ?

It means the Dolphins script their plays on the first drive and practice it all week.

But we have a moron for a head coach and an other at OC who have absolutely no "feel" for the game and how to adjust in-game.

Thankfully the Raiders have a coaching staff that is just as inept and played us in man-to-man the entire game.. They're the only team this year to have done so., The only other team was the packers, they played us in man but they adjusted at halftime. The scouting report on the dolphins is to play them in zone as Henne has always had trouble against it, but again, the raiders ignored it.

It also helped that Nnamdi played with a very bad ankle and missed half the game - plus having a horrible corner there who was a rookie 5th round pick in McFadden helped us greatly. Not to mention their 3rd nickel QB didn't play either and was out.

There are many factors involved as to why the Dolphins offense looked better last week. That won't happen every week though, as we've seen already this season.

we have scored 105 1st half points, and 97 second half points.....a difference of less than 1 pt per game.

we don't score enough points.....but it's not a case of the other team making better adjustments, the split is almost equal.

 

[Pinkboy]

we don't score enough points.....but it's not a case of the other team making better adjustments, the split is almost equal.

that's an elementary way of looking at things because there are so many variables and factors involved in a football game. IE- The split was equal against Minny but we scored a TD on our fist drive and we had a defensive TD thanks to Wake and Misi later in the 2nd half. The offense went into hibernation after that first drive.

Something you're totally ignoring is what about the other drives in the first half aside from the first drive ? It's just faulty logic to use such a sample size. You want a sample size that's a better indicator ??...

If the Dolphins kept their opening drive trend throughout entire games on every drive, and scored at the same rate on every drive, they wouldn't be near the bottom in points scored this year... I guarantee you that. The problem is the Dolphins and Sparano are horrible at countering after another team counters them. They do not have the ability to look 2 steps ahead. Hell, the Dolphins don't even have an answer in their playbook when another team doubles their alpha receiver.

That's how sad it is.

It doesn't take a genius to realize that this offensive coaching staff is rock bottom in the league at making adjustments through the course of games.. watch other teams play and compare your notes.

 

[NJPHINFAN79]

we have scored 105 1st half points, and 97 second half points.....a difference of less than 1 pt per game.

we don't score enough points.....but it's not a case of the other team making better adjustments, the split is almost equal.

I totally agree we dont score enough points..... we def kick to many field goals.

But where we disagree is in adjustments.

something was working in those opening drives that the d could not stop (yes they were practiced i get it) but this is a pro team they should be able to execute all the plays....
The problem is when the def makes changes to what we were sucessful with in the opening drives we diont counter and change what we are doing.... this hard nosed mentality is great when u over power teams and can just say FU beat us....

this team is not there yet.. thus we need to be able to make some changes on the fly and keep the def on its heels scheme wise and henning is not getting it done period!!!

If u look at what nolan has done with the talent that we have on D (really only big name that we didnt have last year is Dansby) it shows u what schemes and adjustments can do

Thoughs??

 

[burger13]

that's an elementary way of looking at things because there are so many variables and factors involved in a football game. IE- The split was equal against Minny but we scored a TD on our fist drive and we had a defensive TD thanks to Wake and Misi later in the 2nd half. The offense went into hibernation after that first drive.

If the Dolphins kept their opening drive trend throughout entire games on every drive, and scored at the same rate on every drive, they wouldn't be near the bottom in points scored this year... I guarantee you that.

Moreover, it doesn't take a genius to realize that this offensive coaching staff is rock bottom in the league at making adjustments through the course of games.. watch other teams play and compare your notes.

yes, it is a very simplistic way of looking at things....but so it 'we are 2nd in the league in points on opening drives' as that stat doesn't take into account things like getting the ball on the Pitts 20 yd line to start the game, not moving a yard, but getting 3 points.

....but if it were a case where a lack of adjustments were as bad as you are saying, I would expect a much bigger difference between what we are able to do before halftime and after halftime.

Personally I think that Henning gets too much blame. I think it's easier for fans to blame the offensive coordinator than the players. If the players are executing better, Henning would look a hell of a lot better. Do I think he's a great OC? no. Do I think he could be doing a better job? Absolutely. Do I think he's the worst in the league like seems to be the consensus? No.

 

[Pinkboy]

It really shocks me that people can't put the brunt of the blame on this offensive coaching staff.

Let me remind you, we just had 4 defensive players on various opposing teams this year tell us that they knew exactly what we were going to run on offense.. Our calls based on our formations are some of the most predictable in the league !!!

I mean, seriously.. how can you not see it ?

 

[burger13]

It really shocks me that people can't put the brunt of the blame on this offensive coaching staff.

Let me remind you, we just had 4 defensive players on various opposing teams this year tell us that they knew exactly what we were going to run on offense.. Our calls based on our formations are some of the most predictable in the league !!!

I mean, seriously.. how can you not see it ?

I do put most of the blame on the offensive coaching staff....but not all of it.

People just seem too quick to whine and cry about playcalls when they don't work and ignore execution.

The thing from the Titans game where Finnegan (it was him, right) said he was telling BM the routes.....was eye-opening. I don't recall 4 instances of this, when were they?

We're 28th in the league in scoring so obviously there are problems. I just don't agree that Dan Henning and adjustments/lack of adjustments are the only problem.

 

[Pinkboy]

ps- just to show how you can't use such a sample size, and that there's so many variables and factors involved in a game.... the dolphins got a very easy 7 points in the 2nd half on the ricky run vs the Raiders.. The Raiders D were on the field for over 40 minutes and were gassed and worn down. They were going at half speed on that TD by ricky.

Thanks in part to the dolphins defense shutting the raiders offense down, allowing our offense on the field immediately throughout the game for that huge time of possession advantage.. the raiders ran 4 plays or less on their first 8 possessions !

contrary to popular belief, the dolphins didn't run the ball well before that 45 yard run by ricky.,. they only averaged 3.5 yards per carry on 46 carries before that TD run.. that's below average. Look at the worst rushing teams in the league and that's around where they average.

Henne did make some nice throws on some 3rd downs to keep some drives alive though.

 

[burger13]

again,

Something you're totally ignoring is what about the other drives in the first half aside from the first drive ? It's just faulty logic to use such a sample size.
and again, take the first drive of every game and average it out to the total drives for the season.. you can also include the yardage and average it out to every drive for the season and you'll see the opening drive averages out a lot higher. there are other drives where we get the ball in good field position and don't move the ball for some pts.. it evens out there.

The problem is the Dolphins and Sparano are horrible at countering after another team counters them. They do not have the ability to look 2 steps ahead, this is because they don't have a good feel for the game as it's going on. Hell, the Dolphins don't even have an answer in their playbook when another team doubles their alpha receiver.

This is a fact as CK wrote up a good piece showing just that.

That's how sad it is.

ps- just to show how you can't use such a sample size, and that there's so many variables and factors involved in a game.... the dolphins got a very easy 7 points on the ricky run vs the Raiders.. The Raiders were on the field for over 40 minutes and were gassed and worn down. They were going at half speed on that td by ricky.

thanks in parrt to the dolphins defense shuitting the raiders offense down, allowing our offense on the field immediately throughout the game.. the raiders ran 4 play or less on their first 8 possessions.

....but the sample size of 11 drives (the first drive of every game) has meaning??? Are you going to say that Miami's offensive coaching staff is the 2nd best in the entire league at scripting the first x offensive plays?? You seem willing to use this stat against them.

My point is, if we are consistently failing at making adjustments, wouldn't you expect that there would be a more drastic difference between how we score before halftime and after halftime (assuming that halftime affords the greatest oppritunity for adjustment)?

 

[burger13]

ps- just to show how you can't use such a sample size, and that there's so many variables and factors involved in a game.... the dolphins got a very easy 7 points in the 2nd half on the ricky run vs the Raiders.. The Raiders D were on the field for over 40 minutes and were gassed and worn down. They were going at half speed on that TD by ricky.

Thanks in part to the dolphins defense shutting the raiders offense down, allowing our offense on the field immediately throughout the game for that huge time of possession advantage.. the raiders ran 4 plays or less on their first 8 possessions !

contrary to popular belief, the dolphins didn't run the ball well before that 45 yard run by ricky.,. they only averaged 3.5 yards per carry on 46 carries before that TD run.. that's below average. Look at the worst running backs in the league and that's around where they average.

Henne did make some nice throws on some 3rd downs to keep some drives alive though.

I agree we weren't as effective running as was generally perceived.....

Yet their commitment to the run, although it wasn't gashing them, helped wear down their defense and help keep them on the field and help set up some managable 3rd downs....where the playcalls weren't bad enough to keep Henne from converting them. :)

Imagine our defense had collapsed and the Raiders had come back, or Ricky fumbled going through the line on that 47th carry....and the Raiders return it for a TD and recover an onside kick.....everyone here would have killed Sparano and Henning for running it so much and not throwing more....

 

[Pinkboy]

Burger, i suggest you read this.. maybe you missed it.

we have such an inept offensive coaching staff that we don't even have an answer when a team decides to double an alpha receiver. Talk about elementary.

This is how horrible this coaching staff is at adjusting. Sparano and Henning belong at the high school level of coaching football.

All today proved is that Dan Henning is seriously uncomfortable with having a Brandon Marshall on his offense.

This is exactly what happened to the Carolina offense when Steve Smith started to reach god-like status. In 2003 he was still a guy that was coming out of nowhere, not a guy you consistently want to send extra coverage toward. He spent the entire 2004 season on Injured Reserve with a serious injury, and the ancient Muhsin Muhammad, who hadn't been super productive in probably five years, became the go-to. Defenses didn't roll coverage to Muhammad, they weren't convinced he could kill them.

Then in 2005 for the first half of the season, Steve Smith was fresh off the big injury and I don't think defenses recognized how god-like he was in their game plans. He averaged 113 yards and 1.1 TDs per game over those first 8 games, and the offense scored 27.5 points per game. But over the final 8 games? I think defenses saw Steve Smith ascend and they started to roll coverage to him. Once that happened, Smith's numbers dropped to like 83 yards and 0.4 TDs per game, and the offense scored 21.4 points per game, a whole touchdown's worth difference in scoring.

And then in 2006, the trend continued, and the offense scored something like 17 points per game.

Dan Henning is a guy that appreciates freedom and variety in the offensive and defensive schemes. His route designs and key reads are pretty simple, but the variety in the direction that the ball goes keeps defenders from catching up to it. He likes to get everyone involved. He's been saying for years now, don't give me Brandon Marshall. Not in so many words, but he says things like what he loves about Miami's WRs is that there are no b-tches. He says he feels like Miami has four #1 guys rather than one #1 guy and he likes that. He talks about how a "guy like that" can really drain the energy out of an offense. What he's getting at is he doesn't like for the defense to consistently take away the same of one of his main options, because the reading between the other options becomes predictable, and smart defensive players can start to figure it out.

There's nothing simple about it, of course, but think of it this way. We know Miami uses a lot of extra protection, right? They keep their backs and tight ends in to block a lot. The flip side to that is, on any given pass play, Miami is sending on average either the fewest or among the fewest receiving options out on routes, in the entire NFL. I actually tallied that up once, on Pro Football Focus, and found that in 2009 we did send out the second fewest number of receiving options on any given pass play. So what happens if every game, a passing offense just up and decides, ok we're going to take away this one guy that we know is going to be a receiving option on every play?

If Miami averaged 3.0 receiving options per pass play, they now average 2.0 receiving options per pass play. But those 2.0 receiving options should be open, right? Or they should be able to get open against single coverage, right? Well, yes but not necessarily with consistency, because defensive players are smart too, and when they see the same thing too many times, they can start to figure it out. Think of what Ed Reed and Cortland Finnegan said about the offense.

Think about how Reed told Marshall straight up that they're going to be doubling him every single play, and they have no problem with that. If you think about it, if you've got FIVE receiving options out on plays, what the hell does it matter if they're consistently taking away one of those guys? You've got four other guys. It makes it harder for defenders to start to cut their corners and start figuring things out. But if you've got only three options on a play and the defense starts to take away one of those options every play, Miami's attack strategy between the other two options starts to get redundant.

I don't think Dan Henning can adapt to that situation, work more options into the passing game to make up for the fact that the defense is trying to take away that one guy consistently. That's why things turned into such a mess in Carolina and it's why things are turning into a mess with Brandon Marshall here in Miami. He hasn't prepared his offensive players to play the way they would need to in order to combat that defensive strategy effectively.