Is Ryan Tannehill Going to Become a Franchise QB?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Shouright, Jan 5, 2013.

  1. Shouright

    Shouright Banned Hammered

    Joined:
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    After doing a whole lot more data collection and statistical analysis over the past few days, I've decided to alter a bit the plan for the "sequel" to this thread:

    http://www.finheaven.com/forums/sho...hill-amp-Weeden-An-Objective-Analysis-(Part-I)

    There will still be a comparison here among the five rookie QBs from this year, as I originally intended, but after looking at the data rather extensively, what I decided to focus on much more instead is the statistical probability that Ryan Tannehill will become a franchise QB during his career in the NFL, since that might just be a concern for some of us. :)

    The idea here first was to develop a criterion variable: to identify which of the quarterbacks who started a significant number of games as rookies have gone on to become franchise QBs.

    To do that, I used career QB rating as the crtierion measure. In other words, I focused on career QB ratings as a means of determining whether the QBs in the analysis have attained the "franchise" level during their careers. Here is the data set that was used for this analysis and all the other statistical analyses I'm going to cover later in this post:

    [TABLE="class: cms_table_grid"]

    [TD="align: center"]QB
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]Rookie Starts
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1st Round?
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Franchise QB?
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Career QB Rating
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Rookie QB Rating
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]WPA
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Total Attempts
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Attempts Per Start
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Attempts Per TD
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Attempts Per INT
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Defensive Rank (Points)
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Rushing Rank (Yards)
    [/TD]
    [TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Deep Ball %age
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Tannehill
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]76.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1.36
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]479
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]31.93
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.92
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.85
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]8.77
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Luck
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]76.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]4.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]627
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.19
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.26
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.83
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13.24
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Wilson
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]100
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3.03
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]393
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24.56
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15.12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]14.25
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]RGIII
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]102.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]393
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]26.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]19.65
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]78.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]8.4
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Weeden
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]72.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.47
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]517
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.47
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.93
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30.41
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]19
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.06
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Newton
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]86.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]84.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]2.05
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]517
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24.62
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30.41
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15.47
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Dalton
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]87.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]80.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]516
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.25
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]25.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.69
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]19
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.85
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Bradford
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]82.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]76.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.09
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]590
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.88
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.78
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.33
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]25
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]6.61
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Palmer
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]86.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]77.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.06
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]432
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]33.23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.88
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Roethlisberger
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]92.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]98.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]2.12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]295
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22.69
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17.35
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]26.82
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]14.92
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Ryan
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]90.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]87.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3.75
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]434
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]39.45
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]12.67
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Flacco
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]16
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]86.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]80.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]428
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]26.75
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30.57
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]35.67
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11.45
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Ponder
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]81.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]70.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.61
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]291
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22.38
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]22.38
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]12.71
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Stafford
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]82.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]61
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.45
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]377
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]37.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]18.85
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.34
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Gabbert
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]14
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]70.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]65.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-2.21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]413
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.42
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]37.55
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]12
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]6.78
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Sanchez
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]71.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]63
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.02
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]364
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24.27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30.33
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]18.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.71
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Young
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]74.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]66.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.96
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]357
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.46
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.75
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27.46
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]14.29
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Leinart
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]70.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]74
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]0.91
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]377
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]31.42
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.08
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Freeman
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]79.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]59.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.08
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]290
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.22
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]27
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11.72
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Gradkowski
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]65.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]65.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]328
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.82
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.44
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]36.44
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]28
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10.98
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Orton
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]79.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]59.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-2.66
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]368
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]24.53
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]40.89
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]28.31
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11.96
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Edwards
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]75.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]70.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.42
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]269
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.89
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]38.43
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]33.63
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]18
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]6.69
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Clausen
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]10
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]58.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]58.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.83
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]299
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29.9
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]99.67
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]33.22
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]26
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]7.02
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Walter
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]52.6
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]55.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-2.49
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]276
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]34.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]92
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21.23
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]18
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]29
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15.94
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Smith
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]No
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]79.1
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]40.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-1.57
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]165
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]23.57
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]165
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]15
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]30
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]13.94
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]EManning
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]Yes
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]82.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]55.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-0.05
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]197
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]28.14
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]32.83
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]21.89
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]17
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]11
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]9.64
    [/TD]
    [/TABLE]

    The career QB ratings for the QBs who are in only their second years in the league were their QB ratings during their second season only, since using a "career" rating that involved their rookie season would confound the analysis.

    What we see here is that the median career QB rating in the sample is 79.8 (the average was 77.9). Therefore every QB with a career QB rating of 79.8 or higher has been deemed a franchise QB in the sample. As you can see, that fairly well maps on to my sense of what people would generally believe, with Josh Freeman being the lowest man on the totem pole in that regard, and Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan being at the top.

    Interestingly, Kyle Orton and Alex Smith were barely below the "franchise" level, and both became backups this season. So not only does the criterion variable (career QB rating) map on to my sense of the general consensus of how these QBs are viewed; it also distinguishes starters from backups very well, even backups who were recently starters and who played well in the recent past (Smith and Orton).

    Therefore I would say the criterion variable has what we call "construct validity." In other words, in my opinion it validly represents the concept of "franchise QB," at least for the purpose of the forthcoming statistical analyses.

    So, now we have a whole lot of other variables (above) we can use to determine whether Ryan Tannehill may someday find his place in that category, as well.

    What we find first statistically (using one-way ANOVAs) is that rookie QBs who later became franchise QBs differed significantly from those who did not with regard to only three of the above variables: 1) rookie QB rating, 2) pass attempts per TD pass, and 3) WPA (explained below).

    The first stands to reason, since past behavior (rookie QB rating) is often a predictor of future behavior (career QB rating). The second (pass attempts per TD pass) stands to reason, as well, since TD passes are an element of QB rating.

    The third, however -- WPA -- requires some explanation. "WPA," or "win probability added" is taken from a website called Advanced NFL Stats, and refers to the following:

    Now, what we see here with some additional statistical analysis is that the correlation between rookie QB rating and career QB rating is 0.58 and is statistically significant at a p-value of 0.006.

    So, you ask, perhaps, why not just use rookie QB rating to determine how likely a rookie QB is to become a franchise QB?

    Two reasons: 1) the correlation between WPA and career QB rating is much stronger -- 0.75, with a p-value less than 0.0001, and 2) when we correlate rookie QB rating with career QB rating while partialling out the variance in both associated with rookie WPA, the correlation between rookie QB rating and QB rating drops from 0.58 to a lowly 0.19, which is not statistically significant.

    In other words, the way a rookie QB plays in the clutch (i.e, his WPA) is a much stronger predictor of his later designation as a franchise QB than his rookie QB rating alone. What the partial correlation above points out is that there have been a decent number of QBs whose rookie QB ratings were low and whose career QB ratings are high, because their rookie WPA was relatively good (and vice-versa). Said differently, their play in the clutch as rookies was a better predictor of their later success than their overall QB ratings as rookies.

    So now that we have an adequate predictor of "franchise QB" status based on the analyses above, let's take a look at how Ryan Tannehill did this year in that regard.

    Ryan Tannehill's WPA this year was 1.36, which may seem meager at first glance when you compare it to the WPA numbers of RGIII, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger, for example.

    However, when you analyze it statistically, you find that the average "franchise QB" in the sample above had a rookie WPA of only 0.59, while the average "non-franchise QB" in the sample had a rookie WPA of -1.16 (yes that's negative 1.16).

    We already know Ryan Tannehill's rookie WPA places him comfortably in the "franchise QB" category, but we can go one step further. We can see if his rookie WPA was significantly higher than that of the average rookie WPA of the "franchise QBs" in the sample.

    The answer is not quite. The standard deviation of the rookie WPAs among the "franchise QBs" is 1.44, which means Ryan Tannehill's WPA of 1.36 isn't quite a standard deviation above the mean.

    However, I think the general finding here, that Ryan Tannehill showed the kind of clutch play this year that suggested he has "the tools" to become a franchise QB, supports the perceptions of many here in the forum.

    To provide a bit of additional context, Chad Henne's WPA in 2009 (his first season as a starter) was 0.90, which would've placed him, also, in the "future franchise QB" category, though not with the degree of confidence provided by Ryan Tannehill's WPA of 1.36. Of course Chad Henne was not a rookie that year, either, and he'd had much more experience at the position than Tannehill.

    Also, and here's the clincher: Chad Henne's WPA the following season (2010) was -1.28.

    So anyway, this is all just for fun and for our information. Hope you found it enjoyable. :up:
     
  2. Fins_of_Fury

    Fins_of_Fury In a contract year

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    I enjoyed looking through that, thanks for the well thought out post! My sig will tell you how I feel.
     
  3. foozool13

    foozool13 #12 #13 #23 #29 #54 #99 Donator

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    That's the Multi-Million (in this case) dollar question!
     
  4. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    "advanced" statistics can't predict a damn thing.

    And half those guys that you consider "franchise" qbs are not even close.
     
  5. CattailsrEdible

    CattailsrEdible Banned Hammered

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    Um a simple hell yes would have sufficed!

    Mosquitoes Refuse To Bite Me
     
  6. The Tannehills Have Eyes

    The Tannehills Have Eyes A True Fan

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    Well this doesn't really mean anything to me since this QBR doesn't factor coaching/all the talent on the field offensively. Why exactly is Freeman,Ponder,Dalton,Bradford, and even stafford have a yes on franchise QB? In what universe can you confirm they're ?But yes advance statistics don't assure anything for me.
     
  7. LANGER72

    LANGER72 A True Fan

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    Franchise QB = Playoffs/Superbowls
    The stats don't mean a lot if we don't win games. The QB has to be instrumental in the winning. Caretaker QB's or game managers are the QB's of mediocre teams. Will Tannehill be something special? Can he make those career and game defining plays frequently? Looking at the stats and wins, it doesn't look promising at this point, but we need to give him time to grow. He flashed his arm at times, his game savvy at times, and his mobility at times. Just no consistency.
    It is too early to judge him if you ask me.
     
  8. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    this is called book smarts...
     
  9. PALMA

    PALMA A very famous spit

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    I love the stats, I'm a scientist at Standord so I can relate to reading out meaningful numbers in a sea of data. However I can't shake off 0 points against the Pats Week 17. Tannehill has many wonderful tools, but has a long ways to go. He'll have a career in the NFL for a long time. But I suspect his best years won't come till a few seasons in when he's finally mastered the finer points of NFL quarterbacking. Wether those years will be with us remains to be seen, he's being measured against greatness, Andrew Luck.
     
  10. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit A True Fan

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    There's many franchise quarterbacks in this league but only elite ones win Super Bowls.

    Romo, Rivers, Dalton, Ponder, Schaub, Cutler off the top of my head can take teams to playoffs but they're not elite and won't ever win a Super Bowl.
     
  11. Shouright

    Shouright Banned Hammered

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    No Bess or Clay for the whole game, and no Fasano for a large part of it. The supporting cast is too thin to withstand those absences IMO, Bess's especially.
     
  12. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    you know guys i just watched andy dalton be late all over the place with his throws or throw dying quails down the field...i would take ryan tannehill right now over him in a heartbeat...he's never late he makes terrific presnap and post snap reads and sets his protections up like a damn veteran...

    yes he will be a franchise qb...you guys just got to see the forest through the trees...

    anyways op i appreciate the work you do to provide analytical analysis but i would sure like to see some more common sense and football sense from this board...other than tannehill needs to clean up some things accuracy wise that kid should not be taking so much heat from this fanbase...i'd take him easily off his rookie season for his decision making and athleticism alone over half the leagues qbs...and his pocket presence is better than more than half the leagues qbs already...already...

    you'd be surprised how many qbs i wouldn't trade him for...
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 5, 2013
  13. The Tannehills Have Eyes

    The Tannehills Have Eyes A True Fan

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    I know bess only had 1 td this season but he can be pretty underrated in this forum, one of the better slot receivers in the league and assuming with do expand that supporting cast I think bess will benefit more next year.
     
  14. BG12DM13CP10

    BG12DM13CP10 Well-Known Member

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  15. Fins_of_Fury

    Fins_of_Fury In a contract year

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    I think what really seperates a franchise QB from a (run of the mill) talented player, is intelligence and work ethic. I think we have that with Tanny but only time will tell.
     
  16. Strangeworld

    Strangeworld Banned Hammered

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    Odds are 65% - 35% against I am afraid.
     
  17. phinmanniac

    phinmanniac Rookie

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    Here is a measurement for you. Rookie QB immediate impact on their respective teams:

    2011 Season
    Washington: 5-11
    Indianapolis: 2-14
    Seattle: 7-9
    Miami: 6-10

    2012 Season
    Washington: 10-6
    Indianapolis: 11-5
    Seattle: 11-5
    Miami: 7-9

    And don't give me this BS that they all had way better tools! Aside from Seattle (with Lynch) our pieces were on par with the other 2 teams. We had a strong defense and a ridiculously soft schedule.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 7, 2013
  18. Valandui

    Valandui Lumberjack Batman Donator

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    Yes. Unfortunately, it will be for another team if Ireland thinks he can get two fourth rounders for him.
     
  19. Birdmond

    Birdmond FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I think Tannehill will be a top 10 QB in a few years. I doubt he's ever a "franchise" QB.
     
  20. sm0kinfins

    sm0kinfins Adults are obsolete children

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  21. miamiron

    miamiron A True Fan

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    Amazing how bad Dalton is yet he threw 47 touchdowns in 2 seasons AND ADD 5 RUSHING TDS
    yet the better QB in your mind threw HOW MANY THIS SEASON?....WAS IT 12???
     
  22. Phinsome

    Phinsome Phinfan since 1982

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    Washington, Indy and Seattle have way better offensive talent. Do we have a Reggie Wayne? Nope. Pierre Garcon? Nope. A 1600 yard rusher like Alfred Morris (which says more about the Redskins O-Line). TY Hilton? Sidney Rice? Golden Tate?

    Point is, those teams really did have way better offensive talent. Tannehill will have some real weapons next year and we are going to be in for a treat.
     
  23. scodoublet

    scodoublet Anywhere. Anytime. Donator

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    Nice post!
    Next season we can see how telling it was (or not) of the future.
     
  24. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    If they are the correct numbers, and applied over a deep sample, they'll always overwhelm subjectivity
     
  25. CattailsrEdible

    CattailsrEdible Banned Hammered

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    Well Mr greatness is setting on his *** at home today! If you love that turd so much, go be a colts fan, please!

    Mosquitoes Refuse To Bite Me
     
  26. Finland

    Finland Pro Bowler

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    What's with the people that say a QB is a turd because their team is out of the playoffs or matt ryan didn't win a playoff game. They are both good QB's and nothing worse than the "go cheer for so and so line". It's right up there with "I know you are but what am I" from grade 3.
     
  27. PeterNorth

    PeterNorth Seasoned Veteran Hammered

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    Say what? Pray tell what you consider a "franchise" QB to be then. I could be wrong here but it seems like you are another in a long line of people who parrot terms they don't even fully understand just to come across as knowledgeable-much like how I see everyone and their brother on this forum throw out things like "seam threat (or "seem" threat for the spelling challenged)", "take the top off of a defense", "cornfed", etc.
     
  28. PeterNorth

    PeterNorth Seasoned Veteran Hammered

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    What an utterly moronic line of thinking. By your logic, the entire Dolphins organization, from the owner, GM, coaches and players right on down to the concession workers, have been "setting" on their asses for the entirety of the last 4 seasons. I know it is sometimes hard for a lot of fans to remain objective when it comes to their favorite team(s), but you have to make at least a little bit of effort. That "turd" you speak of is someone who would have made you cream in your dungarees had the Dolphins been fortunate enough to draft him.
     
  29. -=DolfanDave=-

    -=DolfanDave=- A True Fan

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    it bothers me to no end when people bring up the fact that Tannehill led us to 0 points against the Pats in Week 17. I can easily think of 14 points that were left on the field by players on the fins not named Tannehill.
     
  30. SkapePhin

    SkapePhin Rump Shaker Finheaven VIP Donator

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    You do realize that 2 of the most talented pieces from the 6-10 2011 Miami team were booted before the 2012 season, right? Unlike the other teams, the Miami roster was actually DOWNGRADED from the previous year. I highly doubt the 2011 squad would have won more than 3 games without Brandon Marshall and Vontae Davis on the squad.
     
  31. Shouright

    Shouright Banned Hammered

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    Here's a recent Palm Beach Post article that tries to make a case for the lack of a difference Matt Ryan would've made for the Dolphins:

    Matt Ryan's rookie QB rating may have been two points lower than Tannehill's, but Matt Ryan's rookie WPA, which as the original post shows is much more predictive than rookie QB rating of future QB rating, was 3.75, compared to Tannehill's 1.36. Matt Ryan's WPA was a whole 1.8 standard deviations above the mean in the sample of rookie QBs since 2004, whereas Ryan Tannehill's was a mere 0.58 standard deviations above the mean.

    And sure enough, the numbers bear that out: Matt Ryan's QB rating this year was a very good 99.1, good for 5th in the league overall.

    So it may be a way to "feel better about all of this," but it's using the wrong measurement for such mood enhancement, and therefore a ruse.

    http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/s...dont-worry-too-much-about-what-matt-ry/nTwxr/
     
  32. Valandui

    Valandui Lumberjack Batman Donator

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    Matt Ryan also had Roddy White, Mike Jenkins, Michael Tuner, and a solid OL his rookie year.
     
  33. Krush

    Krush Finaholic Donator

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    Interesting, but you have too much time on your hands lol
     
  34. Shouright

    Shouright Banned Hammered

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    True, but partialling out the variance in the correlation between rookie WPA and career QB rating associated with the rank of the rushing offense does nothing significant to the correlation between WPA and career QB rating. So the presence of Michael Turner, and at least part of the impact of the OL, very likely made no significant difference in Ryan's play as a rookie.

    Now, if you want to make a solid, objective case for how wide receivers are significantly responsible for QB play, I'm all ears.
     
  35. Shouright

    Shouright Banned Hammered

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    I'll bump this one due to the fact that Tannehill's WPA last year, even though it placed him 20th in the league overall, was predictive of the improvement we're seeing in him this year. So far this year he's ranked 3rd in the league in WPA, behind only Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler:

    http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB
     
  36. twix2500

    twix2500 A True Fan

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    Now that is awesome table right there.
     
  37. finjim

    finjim Banned Hammered

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    Another miserable failure of a thread by Shouwrong.

    Are you going for some kind of record???
     
  38. Birdmond

    Birdmond FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I answered the question. Get over it. I consider Brady, Rodgers and Manning franchise QB's and as of now that's it. My opinion, if you don't like it don't read my post.
     
  39. lynxdolfan

    lynxdolfan Well-Known Member

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    No. He IS one!
     
  40. russianbear

    russianbear FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Wait....just need to clarify this. You don't consider Drew Brees a franchise QB?
     

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