Is There Hope?

[Highzenga]

This is more for fun than anything else, but there was a stretch of the game yesterday that lasted nearly a half, in which the Dolphins played like a team that would be expected to finish a season with a 15-1 record.

Let me explain.

In the second half, Matt Moore's passer rating was 106.5.

Ryan Fitzpatrick's was 68.8.

That of course means the Dolphins' passing offense was playing very well, and its defense was playing very well against the opposing passing offense.

Based on league data from 2014 to 2016, every 5.65 points of advantage between offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating surrendered (i.e., passer rating differential) equals one expected win on a season.

During the second half yesterday, the Dolphins' passer rating differential was a whopping +37.6.

37.6/5.65 = 6.65

(For comparison's sake, the 2016 Patriots, who finished 14-2 and won the Super Bowl, had a passer rating differential of +25.1 on the season.)

The average team in the league is of course expected to finish 8-8. A team with 6.65 additional wins, rounding up to 7, would naturally finish 15-1.

So here's the question to ponder and respond to if you'd like: if this team is truly toast, why can it play for an entire half of football like a team that would be expected to finish 15-1, even when it's down 20-7 on the scoreboard and there appears to be no overwhelming motive to do so?

Take a look through the forum at the criticism of various parts of the team, from the owner all the way to the ballboy.

If those parts of the team truly make it terrible, how did it play like a 15-1 team for an entire half, when it could've just as easily packed up and quit?

What about the team made that happen, and why can't it be present for 60 minutes week in week out?

Interesting post. I believe the reason that we played so well in the 2nd half is because we are a very talented team. While its true that we blew a few games recently, and at this point the playoffs are unlikely, however, I am very hopeful in regards to this roster going into next season. With another year of experience for the younger guys, players coming back healthy, and the addition of another draft class, we have the potential to be a legit contender in the weak afc. As to why we don’t play well consistently, I do not know. We do seem to lack discipline which is concerning.

 

[oasis]

Just about any team (ok, maybe 25 teams or so) can put up a half where they look like the best team in the league and a half where they look like the worst team.

But that's why you hear everyone harping on consistency. Doing that consistently is a completely different animal - and requires a different level of coaching and talent than the team that does it for one half.

 

[DKphin]

Nope ... not this season. Honestly as long as Tannenbaum is in the talent acquisition there won't be hope.

I agree. Gase's stubbornness is a cause for concern, but T-dumb is a cancer that needs to excised. As long as he is in charge of anything, the cancer will spread and death will ensue.

 

[maralieus]

Yes, there is hope that we will get a top 5 pick and trade down for a kings ransom. Knowing us we'd probably trade up and draft a tackle.

 

[royalshank]

Here’s what we should be hoping for:

- Tannehill recovers and comes back 100% healthy

- MacMillan comes back 100% and hasn’t already lost a step in his rookie season

- We find a way to re-sign Landry

- Laremy Tunsil matures into a stud by season’s end

- T-Baum gets eaten by an alligator while playing golf

- We draft a RB that can break tackles, block and catch

- We draft a TE that can catch

- Charles Harris turns into a double digit sack guy by next season

- Andre Branch decides to opt out of his contract because he actually feels bad - as if he’s stealing from us

- We draft a stud LBer and Stephane Anthony plays like a 1st round pick

- Jessie Davis is the real deal and we can let James walk

- Kiko puts on 30 pounds and can still run as fast

- Jakeem Grant learns how to take a knee in the EZ

- Devante Parker learns how to use his big body and learns how to concentrate

- We hire a competent o-line coach who can keep these idiots from 5-10 false starts / holdings per game

- Bill Belichik decides to spend more time w his family

That’s about it - not too much to hope for.

 

[darefugee]

Here’s what we should be hoping for:

- Tannehill recovers and comes back 100% healthy

- MacMillan comes back 100% and hasn’t already lost a step in his rookie season

- We find a way to re-sign Landry

- Laremy Tunsil matures into a stud by season’s end

- T-Baum gets eaten by an alligator while playing golf

- We draft a RB that can break tackles, block and catch

- We draft a TE that can catch

- Charles Harris turns into a double digit sack guy by next season

- Andre Branch decides to opt out of his contract because he actually feels bad - as if he’s stealing from us

- We draft a stud LBer and Stephane Anthony plays like a 1st round pick

- Jessie Davis is the real deal and we can let James walk

- Kiko puts on 30 pounds and can still run as fast

- Jakeem Grant learns how to take a knee in the EZ

- Devante Parker learns how to use his big body and learns how to concentrate

- We hire a competent o-line coach who can keep these idiots from 5-10 false starts / holdings per game

- Bill Belichik decides to spend more time w his family

That’s about it - not too much to hope for.

- Hell freezes over

There, now it's complete.

 

[Finland]

Is there hope for what? Playoffs, a win, better in 3 yrs..Ok it doesn't matter, NO. What on the horizon will change the route of the last 20 years.
My first game was the AFC championship MIA BUF and it's basically been down hill since then.

 

[Ray R]

IDK, maybe it's me but the dolphins never seem to continue to do the things they did to tie it up.. when they were down, they were bringing pressure on def, then they tie it up and revert back and allow the bucs to drive down and win..

Any chance the other team figured out what was going on and compensated?

 

[tommyp]

Any chance the other team figured out what was going on and compensated?

didn't look like it because it didn't seem like they were bringing the same pressure.

 

[Stoobz]

We would have a chance if opposing teams put in their 2nd string for the entirety of the game.

 

[Hooligan]

There is always hope. Wait and see. After the draft the true fans will be talking play-offs and a possible superbowl run,, again.

 

[TeeMoney]

You wanna take 5 or 6 passes in limited play and extrapolate that for a 16 game season? What are you, stupid?

(40-0... never forget)

 

[Jay131866]

If TanneHILL can stay healthy and TanneNBAUM can suffer a mild heart attack and be forced to retire we have hope.

But for real we had 4 starters at key positions go down this year before the season even started. If we can stop handing out the bad contracts and giving away draft picks for garbage we would be fine. But that is a big if. Unfortunately we can't dump some of these horrid contracts until 2019.

 

[<O>]

You wanna take 5 or 6 passes in limited play and extrapolate that for a 16 game season? What are you, stupid?

(40-0... never forget)

The original post isn't about "5 or 6 passes." It's about how an entire team, offense and defense, played very well for an entire half, when there was little if any motive to do so.

The key here is that last part -- when there was little if any motive to do so.

For example, In the 52 games between 2004 and the present time in which two teams with losing records (i.e., the Dolphins and Tampa Bay) played in weeks 10 through 16 of the regular season (when a team with a losing record has little to play for), and the away team (i.e., Tampa Bay Sunday) held a halftime lead between 10 and 17 points, the home team (i.e., the Dolphins) either won the game, or lost it by three or fewer points, in 15 of those games.

In other words, 28% of the time, teams in the Dolphins' situation at halftime Sunday do what the Dolphins did or better.

The other 72% of the time, teams in the Dolphins' situation at halftime Sunday do worse, and the average amount they lose by in those games is 15.1 points.

In other words, far and away the norm in the league is to be involved in a game like the Dolphins were Sunday, and lose by about as many points as one was down by at the half.

Like I said in the original post, they could've packed it up and quit, and in fact that's the norm in the league, if one uses the average final score as an indication of the losing team's having "quit."

Didn't happen Sunday, however. Instead a team with nothing to play for played like a 15-1 team.

The question is, where did they find that "mojo" if you will, when for so many other stretches of the season -- with more reason to be motivated -- they've looked completely flat.

 

[BahamaFinFan78]

I see no hope under the current regime. I haven't had any real hope for long lasting success since Parcells came in. I had real hope in a bright future then. Going further back, I thought Saban would lead us to sustained winning seasons. But no faith since then.