I've analyzed your 2003 & 2004 Caps (LONG)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by BuffBillsMan90, Jun 29, 2003.

  1. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    I'm not trying to inflame, I'm trying to educate :)

    Obviously, there has been increased interest since the ESPN article by Len P. He has the Fins, through NFLPA documents, at $93.94 million. I've increased my original 2004 cap estimate to $80 million because my previous estimate of $77.5 million appears to be lacking the increase due to the DirecTV deal from earlier this year. That would place Miami $13.94 million OVER.

    However, I do not believe that number takes into account the following:

    1) 2003 draft choices: it appears that the amortization/other bonuses for the Fins 2003 draft choices can be no more than $757,469 in 2003 (all players will sign for at least 3 yrs). Miami's 2003 rookie pool is $2,782,469. Miami drafted 9 players and if you take the minimum salary for rookies of $225,000 and multiply by 9 you get $2.025 million. Subtract and you get $757,469. 5th rd pick, TE D. Lee, has $33,250 bonus amortization and 6th rd pick DB/LB Jenkins has $24,964. That equals $58,214, thus leaving $699,255 for the remaining 2003 picks. (NOTE: The UDFAs count $37,500 in each 2003 and 2004 and I'm not sure if that amount counts under the rookie cap. If it does, subtract and you get $661,755 remaining for 7 picks). Rest assured, I'll use $757,469 for both 2003 and 2004 because it's likely all 9 picks will be receiving the minimum salaries. It very likely that amortization/other bonuses will be higher in 2004 due to the inclusion of roster bonuses/option payments in order to be rookie cap compliant. Another point, 6th rd pick, DB Y. Bell, will not likely get a signing bonus since he's likely to be put on the PUP, but that basically makes his $225,000 rookie salary guaranteed. He will likely get a roster bonus in 2004. This increases the cap charge for 2004

    2) Top 51 rule: I believe that the $93.94 million takes into account ALL players under contract for 2004, not just the top 51. I'll address this below. This decreases the cap charge for 2004

    3)Option payments: Tim Bowens is due a $1.8 million option payment. Until the Fins pay the option, it counts $1.8 million on the 2004 cap, but once paid, it's amortized over the remaining 3 yrs of his deal at $600,000/season. Paying the bonus frees up $1.2 million. This decreases the cap charge for 2004


    As of 6/29/03, I have Miami $2.471 million under an adjusted cap of $75,092,713 (Miami received a NLTBE "credit" of $85,713). That takes into account ALL DRAFT CHOICES with projected signing bonuses estimated using both 2002 & 2003 signing bonuses. I have projected a 53 roster that takes the future cap situation into account. Yes, this a crucial factor in the make-up of the final 53 man roster.

    53 man roster

    QB(3): Fiedler,Griese,Rosenfels
    RB(4): R. Williams,Minor,Edwards,Rogers(KR)
    FB(2): Konrad, Ayanbadejo
    WR(5): Chambers,Thompson,Gadsden,Baker,Newson
    TE(3): McMichael,Battaglia,D. Lee
    OT(4): Dixon,Wade,W.Smith,Jerman
    C/G(5): Ruddy,Perry,McKinney,Whitley,Andrew
    K/P(2): Mare,Stemke

    DE(5): Taylor,Ogunleye,J. Williams,D. Bowens,L.Williams
    DT(4): T. Bowens,Chester,Zgonina,Burnett(DE)
    OLB(4): Seau,Greenwood,E. Moore,Jenkins
    MLB(3): Thomas,Hendricks,Seaverins(OLB)
    CB(5): Surtain,Madison,Buckley,Fletcher,Lowe(S)
    S(4): Knight,Marion,Freeman,Gamble

    PS: WR Tolver, OT Provost, DT D. Williams, LB Hardmon, WR Bellamy
    PUP: OL Nails, DB Y. Bell


    Salary cap with 53 man roster, full 5 man PS, and PUP players as listed above:

    The above roster would leave you $5,814,900 under the adjusted cap of $75,092713. This includes $59,676,731 for salaries and bonuses, $8,816,082 for "2003 dead cap", and $425,000 allocated for the practice squad

    Noticeable cuts to create 2003 cap space:

    McKnight($1.5 million), Dyer($450,000), Wooden($530,000), Royals($450,000), and McGarrahan($530,000). Together they saved $3.46 million on the 2003 cap and with Dyer & McKnight releases, it would save $2.45 million on the 2004 cap.

    Why I projected this!

    Miami could use some of the 2003 cap space to re-sign players such as DE Ogunleye and OT Wade to long term deals and structure those deals to put the lowest cap number in 2004.

    Miami obviously has a tight cap situation in 2004. Whether it translates to "cap jail" is yet to be seen and will be based upon how the NLTBE's end up. Fins FO signed a number of players to incentive laden deals that can greatly increase with playing performance(RW, D. Bowens, Fielder, Griese, Dixon, and a few others).

    Now taking the above roster of 60 players, you must remove the following because they become FAs:

    UFA: FB Ayanbajedo, TE Battaglia, CB Buckley, DL Burnett, DB Freeman, WR Gadsden, LB Hendricks, OL Nails, KR Rogers, and OT Wade

    RFA: OL Andrew, RB Edwards, LB Greenwood, RB Minor, DE Ogunleye, and QB Rosenfels

    EFA: WR Baker, OL Jerman, LB Seaverins, and P Stemke

    I will assume :rolleyes: that the Fins re-sign all practice squad players to standard minimum deals.

    That would leave Fins with 45 players and the salary cap in 2004 looks different but remember that 15 players are at various FA statuses.

    With 45 players signed, Miami would be $3,178,005 OVER.

    I will assume the following:

    1) Tim Bowens receives the $1.8 million option payment and that lowers his 2004 cap number by $1.2 million.

    2) All RFAs and EFAs are tendered at the minimum. In 2003, that would be $605,000 for RFA and $375,000 for EFA. The only exception: DE Ogunleye. He would likely get a 1st rd tender that was $1.318 million in 2003. **See below for more on Ogunleye
    These tenders amount to $665,500 and $412,500 respectively.
    Tenders cap hit=(5 RFAs X $665,500) + (4 EFAs X $412,500) + $1.45 million(OGUN)=$6.4275 million)

    These moves give ya 55 players under contract and with only top 51 salaries, $8,405,505 million OVER

    **Ogunleye: As stated above, I'll broach the idea that since the 1 yr tender is nearly $1.5 million, Fins could re-sign him in 2003 to long term deal and front load it into 2003. His cap hit in 2004 could very close to the tender amount because as a RFA, his minumum salary would be only $500,000 and he could have as much as $950,000 bonus(of any type) and basically break even BUT you would already have him signed long term (at least 3 or 4 yrs) and some of that deal would be on the 2003 cap, which, of course helps the long term cap situation**

    Thus, the $1.45 million cap hit for 2004 will be used for the purpose of the post :)

    Next move is obvious: Resolve the QB situation. Who the FO picks is anyone's guess, but I'll highlight both cap situations

    Fiedler: His cap charge for 2004 is presently $7.577 million. He has a $2 million bonus that activates the 2006 season. His salaries are $3.7 million(2004), $5.775 million(2005), and $6.5 million(2006). His bonus amortizations are approx. $1.877 million/season. His release saves $7.577 million - (3 X $1.877 million)= $1.946 million.

    Griese: His cap charge is $6.997 million but could go higher with various playing time incentives. He has a $5.935 million roster bonus(if paid, it would count $5.935 million). As already widely speculated, this is designed to force his release or extension. If released he saves: $6.47 million

    This will be the defining move prior to the 2004 FA season just like Zach Thomas' extension was in 2003

    How the QB situation is resolved and how the NLTBE's impact 2004 will determine the extent of the "cap jail"



    ****still working on this, please come back for more on Monday :D****
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 29, 2003
  2. PhinPhreak

    PhinPhreak Perennial All-Pro

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    That's more then any fan should know about a rival team Clump :lol: :jk:

    Thanks for the insight Clump. Truthfully I never take much stock in the numbers that are reported by the media as that is the base number there are so many different options that they are not taking into consideration.
     
  3. Prime Time

    Prime Time Screw You Guys..Im Goin Home!!!

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    I am not at all familiar with the cap so I am confused. Can we talk about this next year though? Even so keep yup the good work Clumpy/
     
  4. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    Keep reading as I make adjustments :)

    I'm gonna explain why the $93.94 million number is too high
     
  5. echo_bravo

    echo_bravo Well-Known Member

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    damn clump, you really have too much time on your hands. Seriously, is Buffalo THAT BORING where all you do for fun is studying Miami's cap situation?! Man, just pathetic.
     
  6. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    Hmmmmmm..............you seem to be posting as well :rolleyes:
     
  7. ohall

    ohall A Miami Dolphins fan, not a players fan.

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    Re: I've analyzed your 2003 & 2004 Caps (LONG)

    You just need to admit to yourself that you are a closet Dolphins fan. I would bet you would become a much happier preson if you did so! :D Not that you are grumpy or anything.

    Oliver...
     
  8. ohall

    ohall A Miami Dolphins fan, not a players fan.

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    That's not fair, everyone has dif ways of enjoying themself, with their free time.

    If that's what someone likes to do with their free time and they are happy, what's the problem?

    Oliver...
     
  9. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    I wrote most of this at work...........it was a slow night in the ER :lol:
     
  10. feelnoway

    feelnoway Well-Known Member

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    CP, do you do this for all of the AFCE rivals? I know nothing about the salary cap stuff, nonetheless, it's still obvious that what you just wrote is awfully time consuming. In other words, I'm impressed. Also, what do you do in the ER.? ....just curious...my wife's an RN. Not in an ER, but on a (ready for this?) Bariatric (sp) unit.
     
  11. Prime Time

    Prime Time Screw You Guys..Im Goin Home!!!

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    I appreciate Clump doing this for us. We have guys here who have unofficial "jobs".

    Clump - Cap
    DCH - Info
    Tatonka - Making fun of us :(
    PrimeTime - Making this site SUPERCOOL :lol:
     
  12. finfan54

    finfan54 A True Fan Donator

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    let me save you all some time and just predict that even though clumped sounds very unbiased here, he will come to the conclusion that miami will be in "cap jail" come february.

    But gardeners 6 million will be freed and depending on what happens to Wannspiel, we will do just fine once again. some people like Todd Perry, Mcnight, and one of fiedler/griese will go. probably dixon retires unless he gets used to being divorced and sees the need to continue.
     
  13. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE NFL'S WINNINGEST TEAM

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    Re: I've analyzed your 2003 & 2004 Caps (LONG)

    Clumps.......once again you amaze me. Thank you first off for all the hard work. This is on a subject that makes my head spin. But you really lay it out there and make it fairly easy to understand. Your work is much appreciated.
     
  14. iceblizzard69

    iceblizzard69 Banned Hammered

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    Good post Clump, however here are some small notes about your roster projection:

    1. Tolver will most likely make the roster over Baker or Newson. If Baker or Newson don't make the roster, either of them could end up on other teams based on their performances in NFLE.

    2. Nails will not be on the PUP. He is expected to be ready for the start of training camp.

    3. Safety Scott McGarrahan will make the roster, and his contract includes a signing bonus.

    4. Burnett will not make the roster as a DT. Either him or Lamanzer Williams make it as a DE.'

    5. LB Justin Seaverns will not make the roster because he has no ability on ST.

    6. Mark Royals will be this teams punter no matter how bad he is because he is the holder on kicks and Stemke is even worse which was proven in NFLE this year.

    7. If we take 4 RBs, we will only take 4 WRs. The extra player will be a safety who plays ST (McGarrahan, who will make the roster as previously stated)

    8. Ed Perry, our long snapper, is going to make the roster. He is a TE, and yes, we will take 4 TEs. We did the same thing last season.
     
  15. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    I work in the lab at a hospital in Buffalo and our workload is directly related to how busy the ER is.

    www.patsfans.com/miguel <----------Pats cap page

    http://www.billszone.com/YourSite/g...=YourSite_content&month=2&state=news&nid=4172 <---- my cap page

    I do not know of one for the Jets
     
  16. IceStorm

    IceStorm The High Tech Bong Monkey!

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    Re: Re: I've analyzed your 2003 &amp;amp; 2004 Caps (LONG)

    Admitting to the problem is the first step towards recovery. :cool:
     
  17. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    1) Tolver/Baker/Newson: little cap difference, Baker makes 300K, Tolver will have signing bonus and because he would first be released(after June 1st) in my scenario, his bonus is spread out over 2 yrs

    2)Nails: It remains to be seen.........Achilles injury in December!

    3)McGarrahan: signing bonus included in "dead cap". I kept Lowe because he could play FS/CB/ST. Not much cap impact keeping McGarrahan

    4)Burnett: Look at my roster projection, I have (DE) after his name. He moves inside in obvious passing downs, right?

    5)Seaverins: Miami has NO depth at LB, but doesn't really impact the cap if say Symonette makes it instead

    6)Royals: Cap casualty but add $225,000 to the numbers if he makes it

    7)Rogers: listed as RB but is primary return man, no way you go with only 4 WRs

    8)Perry: cap casualty.
     
  18. grooves12

    grooves12 Seasoned Veteran

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    Personally, I think its AWESOME that you take the time to keep track of all the salary cap mmoves... but trying to predict where things will turn out 1 year from now is rediculous.

    A) We don't even know who will be on the roster THIS year, so how can we project where our cap will end up.

    B) I think many of your assumptions are WAAAAY off.

    Fiedler are BOTH scheduled to make $5million+ next year. That will NEVER happen. A more likely scenario is one is outright released... he other is given a contract extension which lowers his 2004 number to somewhere in the range of $1.5-$2million. Right there that is about $8 million shaved off the cap.

    But, there is also the fact that you are asumming we will be keeping some of the most expensive underperforming players on the roster. Tim Bowens will not likely receive that bonus money. Perry and Ruddy will likely be gone with McKinney and Whitley or another cheap veteran replacing them.

    But, in the end NONE of us can even come close to predicting how this will turn out... we still need to play the games and see who is performing and who is not before we start projecting who will be kept around and at what salaries. But, I think the fact that so much of that excess money is tied up in our QB's and it WILL be addressed makes it almost a GUARANTEE that we will not have many problems getting under the cap. Add to that the normal "cap manuevering" and we will have money left over to make a few key contract extensions, plus sign a few free agent (not blockbuster deals mind you.)
     
  19. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    I have included that resolving the QB situation will occur prior to the start of the 2004 League Year. It will need to be resolved in order to allow Miami to become cap compliant.
     
  20. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    I also haven't finished, but remember, most released players need to be replace and they count vs the cap.
     
  21. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    I will continue this when I get to work tonight.........if it's slow ;)
     
  22. iceblizzard69

    iceblizzard69 Banned Hammered

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    The most likely scenario regarding Rogers is that Robert Edwards goes. 4 WRs is an unlikely possibility because we never use 5 WRs, but we won't keep 4 RBs and 5 WRs, that I can guarantee.
     
  23. SuavePhin

    SuavePhin Resident Montana Griz pimp for Miami :) Donator

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    Dude if hell ever freezes over and Buff actually wins some sort of championship i feel so sorry for your workload that night!! :lol:
     
  24. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    Good post!

    While I don't agree with all your roster conclusions it seems that under you're scenario we're not doing too bad.

    Summary: Next year we are over by $8.5 mil and we'll cut one of the QBs that make @ $7 mil. That leaves us @$1.5 mil over before any other restructures or cuts.
     
  25. BuffBillsMan90

    BuffBillsMan90 is Clumpalicious!!

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    :rolleyes:
     
  26. valleskey

    valleskey I am a large human

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    Thanks Clumpy

    very informative--you may be wrong or you may be right on some things, but one thing is for sure, you have your **** together.

    bills fan or not, I am glad you are here!

    Thanks again for all the info

    Geoff in Wisconsin:D
     
  27. Ferretsquig

    Ferretsquig Perennial All-Pro

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    Neither Griese or Fieldler will see any of that bonus money. The one that stays will have a new contract before hand. Also Bowens will be cut before they give him any of that 1.8 million. You have to assume that none of that bonus money will be paid and whatever new contract the QB signs will have its bonus spread over 6+ years.
     
  28. XoPhinsoX

    XoPhinsoX No More Injuries, Please ;).

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    I think it had more with the fact you take so much time to figure out a rival teams cap numbers then that you were posting ;).

    Just pointing that out :tongue:
     
  29. PhinsTD

    PhinsTD Phins fanatic

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    I've looked over his post and I hate to say it if his numbers are accurate it is close to right.

    It all comes down to the incentives and actual numbers and bonuses given out. The numbers from ESPN are always so wrong it's not even funny.
     
  30. ZOD

    ZOD Ruler of the Universe

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    I'll come back when I have more time to read the original thread...

    I just have one thing to say about FUTURE cap hits...

    I was one of those people looking at the Raiders doom and gloom with glee..I think they were projected at something like 30,000,000 over after this past year...

    Well, what do you know ?

    Release a couple of players that had little value to the team's future and they are once again cap friendly..

    Clump,

    It really doesn't matter until the 2003 season is played..
     
  31. Migs182005

    Migs182005 Finheaven.com Staff Writer

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    How could you forget about AJ? :lol:

    AJ= finheaven.com period :tongue:
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 29, 2003
  32. Stamos

    Stamos Banned Hammered

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    Re: I've analyzed your 2003 &amp; 2004 Caps (LONG)

    Good job! But:

    McKnight will not get cut, and Baker and Newson will not both make the roster. Like someone stated earlier, Tolver is considered the 5th WR, on a team keeping 5. Baker is going to get his walking papers, solely based on his injury history, and coupled with Newson's availability to be put on P.S....which baker no longer can be.

    But in the event McKnight is cut, he would only save the team 900,000 against this year's cap, not 1.5 Million, it would save 1.2 Million in 2004. Thats if he's released this offseason. If he's released next year, he'll count 800,000 against the cap, as opposed to the 2.2 Million he's slated to count for. A post June 1st 2004 release on mcknight would cost Miami 400,000 in cap hits in both 2004 and 2005!

    Royals will not be cut, no matter how hard I pray for it to happen. Dave Wannstedts only mistake this offseason: Not drafting or signing OSU punter Andy Groom, who could be released after Tom Tupa's resigning in Tampa.

    Nails will be active week, barring an injury.

    McGarrahan is almost a lock to make this team as a special teamer. He is arguably the best player on those units. Your figure is almost dead on, he would save the team 496,000K immediately.

    You have 7 LB's on the roster...that will not happen. Seau, Thomas, Greenwood, Moore, and Hendricks are locks, and its not even a lock Miami will keep 6, let alone 7. I do think they will end up with 6, but at this point speculating who that 6th will be is just a guess......which I don't want to do.

    all in all clump, not bad....not bad at all.

    A few more things I am gonna comment on, but I am tired. :D
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 29, 2003
  33. Stamos

    Stamos Banned Hammered

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    Re: I've analyzed your 2003 &amp; 2004 Caps (LONG)

    I am not trying to nitpick here Rab, just so your aware!

    Ogun's tender was $375,000.

    Also, just for the purpose of consuming you some time, neither party is looking for a contract extension this offseason. Miami isn't ready to pay him the big bucks he could command next year, while at the same time, Wally and Drew Rosenhaus are confident Wally will have a stellar season and thus his value will sky rocket.

    Personally....I don't think Wally will be around after 2003.
     
  34. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan A True Fan

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    Spielman is notorious about not paying roster bonuses so I wouldn't count on any of that happening for any of the players. If things do go badly I guarentee an overhaul of the mid tier players (Ruddy, Perry, Fielder, Griese, Bowens and Marion would all be turfed in that situation........even in a good run I couldn't see more then 2 being reworked). McKnight will probably be a June salary cut in 2004 depending on how drafting/FA goes. Next year is next year though so I'll worry about that then.

    Either way it should be exciting cause there are a lot of mid tiered guys who got to be taken care of.
     
  35. Stamos

    Stamos Banned Hammered

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    Well of those guys, Perry, Ruddy, and Griese are absolute locks to be released, and only Griese stands a realistic shot of resigning.

    Remember, if we had a quality left tackle....Perry would already be gone.

    Perry's release will only save the team $600,000 if he's released in february, also he'll be 33 this coming season.
     
  36. ZOD

    ZOD Ruler of the Universe

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    I think Perry could play long snapper as long as he wants to for his salary. Did you not learn something at the end of last season ? I think it was the Giants that put no value on the position.

    And don't consider 7 LB's a long shot. That's four starters and 3 head hunters on special teams or vice versa. Either way, it is a possibility.
     
  37. Stamos

    Stamos Banned Hammered

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    Thats Todd Perry were talking about, your thinking of Ed Perry, who as long as he keeps being able to snap like he does, is assured a spot on this roster for years.....that said, he's an unrestricted free agent after 2003.

    As far as the 7 Lb's, it really is a certainity we won't keep that many. Hendrick's being the 5th LB, is on the roster for his special teams play already. McGarahan and Gamble are top notch ST's too, so its really hard to reserve that many spots for ST's, when you factor in the return men and kickers as well in your roster projections.
     
  38. ZOD

    ZOD Ruler of the Universe

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    Oh...You're talking about the Perry that should have already been gone due to our acquisition of Kyle Turley..lol.....
     
  39. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP

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    is it snowing already up in Buffalo? My oh my, don't they have anything else to do other than to worry about OUR cap?

    Ozzy rules!!

    p.s. is a well thought out post by clump but still
     
  40. Va.fin fan

    Va.fin fan Well-Known Member

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    to many numbers, mind is having a melt down. thank god i dont have to do that for a living(keeping us under the cap). good post tho clump, and good form on not letting the attacks get to ya, if you enjoy working the cap on your time, and sharing with us thats great. thanks for the effort whether your right or wrong. peace bro.
     

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