J-Off's Board V1 | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

J-Off's Board V1


Excellent. Thank you.

I am so friggin baffled by people continually saying that. It's so lazy.

It's the first excuse every so-called "evaluator" reaches for whenever presented with scientific evidence that doesn't meet their expectations. God knows they couldn't have merely been wrong. No, it's got to be this weird thing where a guy is only fast one specific way but for some reason none of that shows up in very similar activities on the football field. It's ridiculous and it's arrogant, and often it's as valid as this newly popular insistence that the earth is flat.

I mean, try watching a series of 40 times while having the graphics at the bottom of the screen that show the time blocked out, and then just rank the runners according to your pure perception of their speed. See how accurately you get that ranking. It's going to be pretty wrong. We all know it. Yet here we sit trying to do exactly that, except in many cases looking at different players a matter of days, weeks or even months apart while still trying to mentally sort and catalog them in our heads, and instead of running in standardized, controlled and comparable ways we're watching them perform complex football tasks. And we think we're going to have that all perfectly right, to where if scientifically measured evidence to the contrary smacks us in the face, we say "well that's not what is on the tape". Bull sh-t. That's not what YOU (not you personally J but you get the point) saw on the tape. It was there. I guarantee it was there. You just didn't see it. So be it.
 
Excellent. Thank you.

I am so friggin baffled by people continually saying that. It's so lazy.

It's the first excuse every so-called "evaluator" reaches for whenever presented with scientific evidence that doesn't meet their expectations. God knows they couldn't have merely been wrong. No, it's got to be this weird thing where a guy is only fast one specific way but for some reason none of that shows up in very similar activities on the football field. It's ridiculous and it's arrogant, and often it's as valid as this newly popular insistence that the earth is flat.

I mean, try watching a series of 40 times while having the graphics at the bottom of the screen that show the time blocked out, and then just rank the runners according to your pure perception of their speed. See how accurately you get that ranking. It's going to be pretty wrong. We all know it. Yet here we sit trying to do exactly that, except in many cases looking at different players a matter of days, weeks or even months apart while still trying to mentally sort and catalog them in our heads, and instead of running in standardized, controlled and comparable ways we're watching them perform complex football tasks. And we think we're going to have that all perfectly right, to where if scientifically measured evidence to the contrary smacks us in the face, we say "well that's not what is on the tape". Bull sh-t. That's not what YOU (not you personally J but you get the point) saw on the tape. It was there. I guarantee it was there. You just didn't see it. So be it.

I'm glad that these are helpful, and that's very well said. The better we understand our limitations, the better we understand what we actually see. With regard to forming a rounded opinion of a player, the Combine fills in a large piece of the puzzle. Its importance varies by position, but even for positions where its of less value, you get a clearer picture of how a player wins. Ultimately, at WR, you need a guy who knows how to get open, and a guy who can catch the ball. Antonio Brown didn't test well at all; Jarvis Landry didn't test well at all; Wes Welker didn't test well at all, but they all knew how to get open, and they were reliable targets. That's a relatively rare skill, and, for the position, it trumps pure athletic ability. Of course, it helps to have athleticism on the level of Randy Moss or Julio Jones, but it's a position where mental quickness is more important than physical quickness (though there clearly is a limit). At RB, there is no athletic formula for what makes a great back. Some do great in the jumps; some do terribly. Some run blazing 40s; some run slow. Again, this is a position where mental processing separates the good from average and the great from the good, but you can look at Adrian Peterson and see the explosive power in his legs, and sure enough, that's where he excelled at the Combine. You can look at Shady McCoy and see the wiggle and agility, and, again, that's where he excelled at the Combine. It's hard to say how good a player will be without having something to compare him to, and it's hard to make a proper comparison without having some standardized method of athletic evaluation.
 
J-Off - Phenomenal thread! Love your conviction in ranking these prospects. I knew you liked Bowser, but didn't know you had him top 10. I don't know enough to contribute to the discussion, but just wanted you to know how appreciative I am of your comprehensive analysis.

Thank you! Bowser is not as clean as most of the other top-10 prospects, but he did average 1 sack and 1.5 TFL per game this season (8 games). This is with him dropping in coverage more than any other top Edge prospect that I watched. More importantly, he's an elite athlete at a position where elite athletes rarely fail, and a position where almost all the top names are elite athletes. Also, after QB, it's the premium position in the sport. You can use him like a Jamie Collins or a Von Miller. While his tape is not as clean as some of the prospects I've ranked him ahead of, I still view him as one of the safest picks in the draft - thanks to his physical tools and versatility. When factoring in his upside, and the position he plays, I think he's worth a top-10 pick. He can play SLB in a 4-3 Under or Over, and he's ideally suited for 3-4 OLB. If I were drafting him, I would have him rushing off the edge on passing downs - no matter what D I played.
 
Very much appreciate the compilation. No way do I have the time to do that kind of research, although I have the interest. Willis looks like a legit target at 22.

It's my pleasure, Wozz! I'd love Miami's first two rounds to be Willis and Bowser. Who knows if either will be available at either spot, but based on current projections, it seems like a possibility.
 
It's hard to guess who will go where, but, by position, here are players NFL Draft Scout has rated 5th RD or later that I would be happy to select. I'll put the RD Draft Scout projects beside the name.

RB

Aaron Jones UTEP 6th RD
Joe Williams Utah 6th RD

TE

George Kittle 5th RD
Jonnu Smith 5th RD
Darrell Daniels 7th RD-UDFA
Pharaoh Brown 7th RD-UDFA

WR

Josh Reynolds 5th RD
Jehu Chesson 7th RD-UDFA
(haven't decided where to place the UNC WR's Howard and Hollins, but they'd likely make this list, as well - not even rated as UDFA's)

OG

Ben Braden 5th RD

DT

Charles Walker 5th-6th RD

LB

Elijah Lee 5th RD
Pita Taumoepenu 7th RD-UDFA
Ben Gedeon 5th RD
Blair Brown 7th RD
Marquel Lee 6th-7th RD

CB

Shaquil Griffin 5th RD
Damontae Kazee 5th RD

S

John Johnson 5th RD
Delano Hill 6th RD
Xavier Woods 6th RD
Nate Gerry Not Rated

Of the players listed above, I have a 1st RD grade on Shaquil Griffin and 2nd RD grades on Josh Reynolds, John Johnson, and Nate Gerry. I have Blair Brown, Elijah Lee, George Kittle, Jonnu Smith, and Pharaoh Brown after that. Any three from that list would be great.

J - What is it about Griffin, other than his workout, that prompted you to give him such a favorable grade? His workout definitely opened some eyes, but in watching his Arkansas St tape, i came away underwhelmed.....so i'm curious to get your notes to compare.
 
J - What is it about Griffin, other than his workout, that prompted you to give him such a favorable grade? His workout definitely opened some eyes, but in watching his Arkansas St tape, i came away underwhelmed.....so i'm curious to get your notes to compare.

He's a physical CB, who is ideally suited for a Cover-3 or Cover-4 D. He can play off or press coverage; he's competitive; he's a high-character person - passed on a scholarship at Miami (his dream school), because they wouldn't also offer his brother a scholarship. That's how he ended up at UCF. He gave up a completion rate of 32.9% in 2016, while totaling 15 PBU's and 4 INT's. He can be susceptible to slants and square-ins, but I view that as primarily a technique issue. Getting to his workout, though, in this loaded CB group, he's the only player with 32"+ arms to run a sub-4.4 40. In fact, since 2010, he's one of only four CB's with 32" arms and a sub-4.4 40 - the others being Patrick Peterson, Darius Slay, and Justin Gilbert. Peterson and Slay have lived up to 1st RD value (though Slay was drafted in the 2nd); Gilbert just doesn't seem to care about football. That shouldn't be an issue for Griffin. Effort in run support was a huge question mark for Gilbert, and it's a major positive for Griffin. I'm certainly not saying that he's a perfect prospect, but when I weigh his traits vs his weaknesses, especially with the understanding that many NFL D's will negate most of his weaknesses via the scheme they already run, I like him in the 1st. Of the teams with picks from 26-32, KC is the only team where I'd say that's not an ideal fit. The rest of them (Seattle, Dallas, GB, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New Orleans), for the most part, keep their CB's on a line with variations of Cover-2, Cover-3, or Cover-4 D's.
 
Thank you J-off! A guy I am intrigued by is T.J. Watt. I see you have him listed in your top 10. No expert here, but I have compared his combine measures to Clay Matthews. They are very similar and T.J. has better times in the 3 cone etc. so he seems to be fairly athletic for a guy his size. We seem to have base end covered with Fede and Hayes. Can T.J. play SLB in our scheme if we need him too or is he better suited for a 3-4?
 
Thank you J-off! A guy I am intrigued by is T.J. Watt. I see you have him listed in your top 10. No expert here, but I have compared his combine measures to Clay Matthews. They are very similar and T.J. has better times in the 3 cone etc. so he seems to be fairly athletic for a guy his size. We seem to have base end covered with Fede and Hayes. Can T.J. play SLB in our scheme if we need him too or is he better suited for a 3-4?

My pleasure, and thank you! I think you're smart to be interested in Watt. He's a freaky athlete, who plays with high-level intensity, and you have to love his pedigree. As a player, he's already good, but he should be great in the NFL.

I think he's ideally suited for SLB in a 4-3 Under or either OLB in a 3-4. But, I think he can also be a force in a 4-3 Over. Initially, he may struggle a little with fills from off the line, but once he gets it, he has the tools and tenacity to dominate. Of course, you'd still want him rushing the QB on passing situations. He shares some similarities to Matthews, but he's bigger and a better overall athletes entering the NFL. This draft is really strong at the top for DE and OLB/Edge. If you have a shot at one of them, 2010 and 2015 are the only recent classes that stack up to this one, so you probably won't have a similar shot for another 2-5 years.
 
Jackson St held their Pro Day yesterday, but I can't find the results anywhere. Anyone see/hear how Javancy Jones did? Reading up on the young man, it's hard not to love the person. He plays with fire and swag on the field, but off the field, he seems extremely grounded and humble. His perspective/approach is WAY ahead of most men his age - way ahead of where I was.

Anyway, if anyone can hook it up with that info, I'd appreciate it.

http://www.nfldraftdiamonds.com/javancy-jones-lb-jackson-state-university/
 
So whatcha think of Ben Braden buddy? Was a bit of a disappointment early in his career at Michigan as a RT, but he was a damn good guard the last 2 years
 
So whatcha think of Ben Braden buddy? Was a bit of a disappointment early in his career at Michigan as a RT, but he was a damn good guard the last 2 years

Like him a lot! Showed good instincts and toughness in 2016. Drives through tackles and takes on linemen pretty well. One year of production hurts his stock a little for me, but I think NFL teams will like his versatility and physical tools. He's one of the LB's I'd love to see Miami snag in the 5th, but I think he probably goes in the 3rd or 4th.

My thoughts on Ben Gedeon aside (sorry about that), Ben Braden is a hulking OG - 86th percentile for OG's in weight. And, he can move - his 5.04 40 puts him in the 92nd percentile of OG's. I saw him get a little high at OT, but it didn't seem to show up as much at OG. Like Gedeon, the late bloom hurts his stock a little, but if I'm Miami, and I missed out on Lamp, Johnson, and Feeney. I'd have to strongly consider Braden in the 3rd, assuming he's there. I don't see him lasting until the 5th.
 
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Like him a lot! Showed good instincts and toughness in 2016. Drives through tackles and takes on linemen pretty well. One year of production hurts his stock a little for me, but I think NFL teams will like his versatility and physical tools. He's one of the LB's I'd love to see Miami snag in the 5th, but I think he probably goes in the 3rd or 4th.

You're thinking Ben Gedeon I guess.


On Bowser, Watching him is like watching a more physically imposing Jamie Collins coming out of ..(was it S. Miss I think?). So athletic, so versatile, so smart, so dynamic, so productive. I think you can use Bowser in very similar ways to how BB used Jamie. It's hard to filter out the small-school fools gold from the real stuff, but Bowser looks like the mother lode.
 
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