Kiper Releases Initial Big Board for 2014

[SMadison29]

01 - DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
02 - QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
03 - WR Marqise Lee, USC
04 - LT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama
05 - OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA
06 - LT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
07 - NT Louis Nix, Notre Dame
08 - LT Taylor Lewan, Michigan
09 - CB Bradley Roby, Ohio St
10 - CB Loucheiz Purifoy, Florida
11 - LT Anthonio Richardson, Tennessee
12 - OLB Adrian Hubbard, Alabama
13 - DT Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame
14 - CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
15 - DT Timmy Jernigan, Florida St
16 - WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson
17 - OLB CJ Mosley, Alabama
18 - WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M
19 - LT Cameron Erving, Florida St
20 - DE Aaron Lynch, USF
21 - QB Tajh Boyd, Clemson
22 - DT Anthony Johnson, LSU
23 - OLB Kyle Van Noy, BYU
24 - TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
25 - QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

This year he gives us an additional 25:
26 - OLB Ryan Shazier, Ohio St
27 - WR Brandon Coleman, Rutgers
28 - Ath De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
29 - G David Yankey, Stanford
30 - FS Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, Alabama
31 - DE Scott Crichton, Oregon St
32 - OLB Christian Jones, Florida St
33 - QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
34 - RB Lache Seastrunk, Baylor
35 - OLB Jeremiah Attaochu, Georgia Tech
36 - CB Aaron Colvin, Oklahoma
37 - RB Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona
38 - DE Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas
39 - ILB Trey DePriest, Alabama
40 - FS Ed Reynolds, Stanford
41 - QB AJ McCarron, Alabama
42 - DE Morgan Breslin, USC
43 - NT Daniel McCuller, Tennessee
44 - CB Jason Verrett, TCU
45 - ILB Yawin Smallwood, UConn
46 - DT Deandre Coleman, Cal
47 - CB Quandre Diggs, Texas
48 - WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt
49 - G Gabe Jackson, Mississippi St
50 - ILB AJ Johnson, Tennessee

---------- Post added at 11:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:38 PM ----------

Last year's initial Big Board only featured seven players that were drafted in the top 25 & one (Johnny Adams) that was not drafted. Which player in the initial 2014 Big Board above is most likely to go undrafted (& not because they returned to school)?

01 - QB Matt Barkley, USC
02 - OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
03 - OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
04 - QB Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
05 - DE Sam Montgomery, LSU
06 - RT DJ Fluker, Alabama
07 - WR Robert Woods, USC
08 - CB David Amerson, NC State
09 - DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
10 - ILB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
11 - DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St
12 - LT Taylor Lewan, Michigan
13 - QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
14 - CB Johnny Adams, Michigan St
15 - DT Kawann Short, Purdue
16 - LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
17 - DE William Gholston, Michigan St
18 - WR Keenan Allen, Cal
19 - RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
20 - CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida St
21 - RB Le'Veon Bell, Michigan St
22 - CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi St
23 - DE Corey Lemonier, Auburn
24 - RT Ricky Wagner, Wisconsin
25 - TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame

 

[EJay]

There are several among his top 10 that I will be shocked if they aren't actually drafted there come next April. Clowney, Lee and Matthews chief among them. If they are accepting bets in Vegas already regarding next year's #1 pick, I'd more than confidently throw a nice chunk of change down on Clowney. Barring injury or unexpectedly deciding not to declare for the draft, I don't see any way that guy doesn't go #1

 

[LouPhinFan]

There are several among his top 10 that I will be shocked if they aren't actually drafted there come next April. Clowney, Lee and Matthews chief among them. If they are accepting bets in Vegas already regarding next year's #1 pick, I'd more than confidently throw a nice chunk of change down on Clowney. Barring injury or unexpectedly deciding not to declare for the draft, I don't see any way that guy doesn't go #1

Unless a team sits at #1 that needs a franchise passer and then Bridgewater would be the pick. I would sprint that card up to the podium to make that selection if I were that team.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Daniel McCullers is not going that high. I'll guarantee it. He's a 370+ pound defensive tackle with no pass rush ability whatsoever.

Attaochu isn't an elite enough athlete to go that high. One of the plays that has always stuck out in my mind for Attaochu is the one during his sophomore season where he couldn't get Logan Thomas on the ground and started throwing punches. I think he might be better off at ILB anyway.

Ekpre-Olomu is a 5'9" corner that might be better off at safety, but he's easily the best prospect out of these three. I have him as a 2nd/3rd rounder right now if he were to come out.

I pointed out in one of the pass rusher threads in here about a year ago to watch out for Adrian Hubbard in the future. He's a lot like Mingo except bigger.

 

[ckparrothead]

There's something still missing in Aaron Lynch's game that makes me think being top 20 heading into the 2014 Draft is premature. The big problem I saw in Notre Dame was how he got off the ball. He gets too upright. At the spring game he still had the same problem except now he added an annoying jack start to his issues. He's also lost a lot of weight (it looks like, to me) and he no longer has that outside/inside flexibility he had at Notre Dame. Now he's more of an outside up/down guy. We'll see on him. I was hoping to see more than what I ended up seeing at the spring game.

 

[ckparrothead]

I see Mel has Mike Evans right up there with Marquise Lee and Sammy Watkins. That's deserved. The big question on Evans is going to be pure speed. If he's a 4.50 guy then he's fast enough. But if he's more of a 4.60 guy then he's not. We all can see the athleticism, the ups, the ability to move, etc. And of course he's a physically strong beast with really good hands, like a Brandon Marshall that way. What remains to be seen is whether he can work on his speed. He's trying to work on it. That was one of his goals this off season, to work on his speed. On tape he ran away from some guys but those guys run in the 4.6's and 4.7's. He needs to run away from guys that run in the 4.5's.

 

[ckparrothead]

I would also rank Jake Matthews above Cyrus Kouandjio for the moment. I like Kouandjio a lot and you can't watch Alabama tape without noticing that big guy dominating at left tackle. But he's got to work on his physical shape and mobility. You can't dominate the next level at LEFT tackle the way he's dominating this level, if you don't end up becoming an athlete and not just a people mover. Just ask Jeff Otah.

There are times I really love Christian Jones and there are times I really think he's overrated.

I still consider Jackson Jeffcoat to be very overrated. But we'll see how he progresses in his final year. Coming off the injury, I can't imagine he ends up impressing me a whole lot more.

Will Sutton is conspicuous in his absence. Mel must not be a fan of his size.

If he dings Sutton on size, it's also understandable to ding Aaron Donald on size. But mark me on this, Aaron Donald is going to be a very good NFL player. I've been waiting for a guy that ACTUALLY reminds me of Geno Atkins, whom I really loved coming out in 2010 and I thought should've been a 1st rounder. Every year since then (because it was obvious what a great pick Atkins was going to be, as early as his first preseason), I keep looking for a guy that reminds me of him. I think Aaron Donald might be that guy.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Aaron Donald has been a good football player for a long time. I started putting him in my underrated underclassman thread in this forum right after his sophomore season. I think he'd have already declared if he had more prototypical size. He probably doesn't get high grades by the committee because they can't really project him anywhere at 6'0", 275 pounds. Geno Atkins at 6'1", 295 was easier to project as a 3-technique at the very least.

Donald is in the same boat with a kid like Roosevelt Nix who I've also been extremely high on since his freshman season when he absolutely dominated as a true freshman at Kent St. He lines up at DT at 5'11", 245 pounds and it's just difficult to project him to a position despite his dominance on the field. I watched him destroy Bama's offensive line as a sophomore in a game where Kent St. was getting blown out of the stadium. I don't care what game you watch of him, he cannot be blocked. Period.

This kid has racked up 50 TFL's, 19.5 sacks, and forced 10 fumbles over the past 3 seasons despite all the attention being put squarely on him. Nix and Donald are two of the premier cases of players getting overlooked due to measurables. The league can't project you accurately if you don't fit the prototype.

 

[Dogbone34]

Marqise Lee is insane

I would throw away draft picks to get him in Miami

 

[ckparrothead]

Aaron Donald has been a good football player for a long time. I started putting him in my underrated underclassman thread in this forum right after his sophomore season. I think he'd have already declared if he had more prototypical size. He probably doesn't get high grades by the committee because they can't really project him anywhere at 6'0", 275 pounds. Geno Atkins at 6'1", 295 was easier to project as a 3-technique at the very least.

Donald is in the same boat with a kid like Roosevelt Nix who I've also been extremely high on since his freshman season when he absolutely dominated as a true freshman at Kent St. He lines up at DT at 5'11", 245 pounds and it's just difficult to project him to a position despite his dominance on the field. I watched him destroy Bama's offensive line as a sophomore in a game where Kent St. was getting blown out of the stadium. I don't care what game you watch of him, he cannot be blocked. Period.

This kid has racked up 50 TFL's, 19.5 sacks, and forced 10 fumbles over the past 3 seasons despite all the attention being put squarely on him. Nix and Donald are two of the premier cases of players getting overlooked due to measurables. The league can't project you accurately if you don't fit the prototype.

Geno Atkins may have showed up to the Combine weighing 293 lbs but I can guarantee he didn't play at that. I thought he had to be 285 max, and I could've swore I'd actually seen listings at 275 before. His Georgia Track & Field media guide listing was 282 lbs. His 2009 football roster listing said 287 lbs. He initially showed up at Georgia listed at 270 lbs. When he came out, pre-Combine his draft profiles said 286 lbs and Pro Football Reference still lists that as his weight.

I don't think there's a grocery bag's worth of difference between Atkins and Donald in terms of size. Maybe an inch shorter (6013 vs. 6003?) and maybe 5 or 10 lbs lighter. Donald was listed at 275 in 2012 but who knows how he'll be listed in 2013. Could be 285 at that point. I expect by the time he works out at the Combine he'll be up to the 290 range just like Atkins was.

I wouldn't quite put Roosevelt Nix in the same boat. I understand he's also undersized and good, but to me putting Aaron Donald in the same boat as 5'11" and 245 lbs Roosevelt Nix is like putting Ray Rice as an undersized tailback in the same boat as Darren Sproles.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

He's in the same boat in terms of being overlooked due to size. Whether you're willing to put him there or not... they're both in it.

 

[ckparrothead]

He's in the same boat in terms of being overlooked due to size. Whether you're willing to put him there or not... they're both in it.

And it's the same boat that Geno Atkins was in, one big reason (the other is sickle cell) he went 4th round instead of 1st round. That's what I'm saying. If Roosevelt Nix and Aaron Donald (and Will Sutton) are sharing a boat together, Geno Atkins is keeping them company.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I think Nix would probably be playing a more coventional DE's role if he played in a major conference where bigger kids would automatically get the nod along the interior. He reminds of Elvis Dumerville coming out of Louisville... another kid that was overlooked due to size (5'11", 250). Dumerville was at least afforded the opportunity to avoid having to line up at defensive tackle.

 

[ckparrothead]

I hope Roosevelt Nix gets a lot more time at defensive end. When he lines up at tackle he's only making plays one way, and when he's unable to do that he's getting blasted off the planet. When he lines up on the wing, he does some interesting things that make me wonder if he could translate at that position.

With him I worry that the puzzle pieces just don't fit together. He's got natural advantages owing to his size when he lines up on the interior. He's 50 or 60 lbs lighter and 5 inches shorter than all these interior offensive linemen, who are generally the worst athletes in college football. Of course he's going to be quicker than them and if in the scheme you don't mind your defensive tackle taking himself out of the gap defense on a consistent basis, he's going to be able to get in the backfield and make plays. Because of some unique qualities that he possesses, but mostly because of the level of competition, these poor athletes aren't able to consistently use their size and strength advantage in order to nullify his speed advantage. But the next level is going to be a different landscape. If those guys are athletic enough to allow their size/strength advantages to nullify his speed advantage, he's toast. Not even rosterable as an interior player. Very slippery slope that way, IMO.

So then you get to the question whether he can be a defensive end. If you took all his tape and sliced out 90 percent of it (making up these numbers as I go, btw), and kept just the 10 percent where he's lined up out on the edge...is that the tape of a compelling defensive end prospect a la Elvis Dumervil? You probably recall that Elvis may have been short, but he had really long arms and a good frame. And all those TFLs he had (I remember he had something like 23+ in his final year), they came from End. Point is, if you just straight up cut out every play he's ever made on the interior, and not even looked at it...is this a player that looks interesting at End?

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

It's the fact that he plays beyond what's asked of him that reminds me of Dumerville. The sign of a player that plays beyond what's asked of him is found in the number of turnovers they force. Dumerville's most unique quality at Louisville was that he forced an enormous amount of fumbles once he got in the backfield. It's the sign of a finisher. This is what Nix does.

I see guys all the time that can't do this, even when most of the work has already been done for 'em. They'd rather stand around and watch.

The DE spot for Nix is a complete projection since that's not what he's asked to do. However, it's what he's going to have to do. He's obviously not going to play DT in the NFL at 245 pounds.

I completely disagree with your evaluation that he only makes plays one way. As a matter of fact, if your insinuation is that Aaron Donald is even more talented, I'll take that bet every time.

Nix has already stood up against Bama's offensive line. He dominated it by himself as a sophomore. I watched him plug a goalline stand against Kentucky's offensive line.... a guy named Larry Warford. Nix stands out the most when he's faced against the better competition.

Yeah, he's a rosterable player.