Mando: An honest look at Greg Jennings. Good read, stay away from jennings?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by phinatic1399, Jan 24, 2013.

  1. phinatic1399

    phinatic1399 Diehard Phinatic!

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    [h=3]An honest look at Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley[/h] If you've spent any time on this blog since the season ended you know that when the discussion has turned to free agency two names have dominated the conversation.
    Mike Wallace.
    Greg Jennings.
    I shared with you some pertinent truths and myths about Mike Wallace earlier in the week. (As the post was at the top of the blog only a couple of hours you might want to check it out).
    Now I'd like to share some Jennings knowledge from folks who know him more than me. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently graded every Packers offensive and defensive player. It is a major undertaking and, no, I'm not going to do it here because I don't think I could be fair to everyone. I have not studied enough tape to tell you exactly how Randy Starks compared to Paul Soliai.
    Fair or not, right or wrong, the Journal-Sentinel did it with the Packers.
    And what did the paper say about Greg Jennings and the season he had in 2012? Read:
    "Will be 30 early next season, has missed 11 of the last 22 games due to injury and in all probability will be allowed to walk in March as an unrestricted free agent. Averaged merely 10.5 yards per catch, including 4.3 after the catch. Early in season as a slot, there were times it seemed he was just looking for a place to fall down. Just how strong his market value will be could hinge on how much stock scouts put on his superb performance at Minnesota in the regular-season finale. Gifted, precise runner still offers vertical stretch. There are just too many other capable players at his position and too many players at other positions that must be paid. Grade: C-plus."
    And now we have a problem. I'm not ready to proclaim the paragraph above as the gospel on Jennings. But it says a lot when you consider his age, recent injury history, recent production and compare it to earlier in his career while using two critical factors:
    Critical factor No. 1: The man has perhaps the best QB in the business throwing to him and he had a C-plus season and the team is ready to dump him.
    Critical factor No. 2: He wants to get paid! A lot. We're talking no less than $7 million per year and likley way north of that.
    That, of course, does not change the truth that Jennings is familiar with Dolphins coach Joe Philbin and vice versa. That doesn't change the fact Jennings has family members that want him to play in Miami.
    But is he the right investment? Is he the best value for the buck?
    Free agency is a crapshoot. We all know that. It misses more often than it hits. And it misses mostly when excellent personnel departments determine that a player isn't worth the money he's asking and let him go to another personnel department that doesn't know the player nearly as well but values him more.
    The Packers have an excellent personnel department. They don't make a ton of mistakes. They let Matt Flynn walk as a free agent QB last offseason and while he got a big payday from Seattle, he couldn't beat out a rookie third-round pick name Russell Wilson. Now he's sort of a problem for the Seahawks because backup QBs should not be making $6.5 million per season.
    The Dolphins wisely kicked the tires on Flynn and passed. They didn't want to pay that price. Jeff Ireland, who takes a ton of heat here, got that one absolutely right.
    It didn't matter that Flynn and Philbin were boys. The Dolphins passed.
    That is encouraging to me because it suggests familiarity will not blind the Dolphins with Jennings either. Let's face it, he's a good player. He would upgrade Miami. He's a great citizen.
    But the price is the thing, folks. He's probably not worth what he'll be asking, particularly if there is another faster, younger, admittedly more expensive, but better fit on the market. Mike Wallace.
    And if the Dolphins are budgetting only one major expensive unrestricted free agent wide receiver signing, it should not be a player who had a C-plus contract season.
    While I have you, let me also draw your attention to the tight end topic. The same Journal-Sentinel reported during the season that the Packers were going to part ways with tight end Jermichael Finley. The paper reported he'd be either traded or cut before a $3 million roster bonus hits this offseason.
    Trading for him, something I initially advocated, would be a terrible approach. I was wrong in suggesting that before doing my homework.
    My homework tells me getting Finley in trade would cost something like $10 million against the salary cap. No thanks.
    If he's available after being cut, that is another story because then the team can work a new deal with him. But trading for that contract should be out.
    Anyway, this is what the newspaper said about Finley's 2012 season:
    "Dropped five passes and lost one fumble in the first five games, just one drop and no fumbles after that. Preparation for games appeared far more professional down the stretch, wasn't fixated on his numbers and let game come to him. Caught an occasional seam pass but did best work in the flats. Possesses good, not great, speed and fine athleticism. Degree of stiffness hurts him after the catch and on some routes as a split receiver. Played 47.5% of his 769 snaps from a conventional TE position and 5.7% as extra blocker in the backfield. Regressed as a run blocker, allowing 9½ "bad" runs after having just six in first four seasons. Owed a $3 million roster bonus if on roster in March. Grade: C-plus."
    Oh goodie, another player who had an average season! Doesn't sound great does it?
    Look, I'm not kicking Finley to the curb. He's a good player. He's better than what Miami has. But he's not the best in the business. He's not elite. He's good.
     
  2. WVDolphan

    WVDolphan Banned Hammered

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    Ive said all along I would pass on Jennings. I wouldnt absolutely hate it if we signed him, as he is a useful player with familiarity with the system, but he is too far past his prime compared to his asking price IMHO. The guy has been injured way too often. He was also used a lot in the slot this season. We already have a slot receiver. We need playmakers on the outside. When healthy, Im sure Jennings can still be explosive. But, how often can he explode without injuring himself?

    Id much rather draft TWO WRs in the first 3 rounds. One of them is bound to hit, especially if one of the picks is Stedman Bailey. Draft a bunch of skill position players early and let them develope together. There is no need to rush things and overpay a vet WR. Take the kid from Baylor, Stedman Bailey, and Ertz at TE. Let Matthews continue to develope and resign Hartline. In a year or two we should have a helluva group.
     
  3. Bumpus

    Bumpus Are you gonna drink that? Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    I'd have no problem with the bolded part. Yet, with our cap room - why not take Jennings for a two year deal? I'm tired of waiting for the frigging rebuild to be over.
     
  4. phinatic1399

    phinatic1399 Diehard Phinatic!

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    because you can get a younger version in mike wallace
     
  5. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    But your actually not.
     
  6. rent this space

    rent this space Starter Finheaven VIP

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    It's all about the price with Jennings. For $7 million per season, I'm interested. if he wants $10 million a year, no thanks. the age doesn't bother me, the injuries do somewhat. he's still the best fit of all the free agents and a veteran presence would be helpful if they do draft multiple WR's.
     
  7. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    i think some of that with jennings is valid but he had a groin injury he played thru and dealt with all season...so that has to be taken into consideration...was he ever 100 percent this year??? no...is he way better still than anything we currently have and be a great influence in the lockerroom and leader of the young pups on the wr core??? absolutely...

    i watched jennings catch a ball in the postseason opener for the pack and provide more rac and make a miss than brian hartline did all season pretty much...some of that slot play with jennings also was about nelson being the premium rac and down the field boundary player but there's no doubt in my mind jennings can still make hay in the slot and on the boundary...his versatility is important also...the one thing i did notice though is he didn't have the long speed this year to beat man coverage consistently and separate down the field on vertical routes...but i attribute some of that to never being fully healthy...you run top speed with a groin that feels like it could fall off any moment

    i guess what it comes down to is do you think it's injury or age that has jennings play not being at the same level we're used to seeing...i tend to think at this stage it's the former...but there's risk...there's also risk if you pass and he ends up as his old self torching cats in another uniform...before the injury this year i saw no signs of fall off in his play...which is why i tend to roll with injury being the issue here
     
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  8. foozool13

    foozool13 #12 #13 #23 #29 #54 #99 Donator

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  9. gdiaz0358

    gdiaz0358 Rookie

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    Id only take Jennings if we can sign him to a reasonable contract. We can use his knowledge and experience on the field and have him mentor any rookies we draft. If hes asking for too much money, we let him kick rocks.
     
  10. 13Dolfan87

    13Dolfan87 Scout Team Donator

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    The only reason I have any interest in Jennings is because of his familiarity with Philbin and the fact that he's a good route runner. He's getting up there in age (for a WR) and has been injury prone lately. I want him at a reasonable price but he simply cannot be our only WR acquisition.

    I'm a little worried about Wallace because he's not a great route runner. He's definitely a playmaker and we obviously need those but it seems like he's going to want a boatload of money and I don't know about that.

    I have zero interest in Finley. Dude seems so overrated.
     
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  11. NY8123

    NY8123 Sophisticated Redneck Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    Glad to see Armando is expanding his roll to drag other well presented write-ups into the trash with his own.
     
  12. petefins

    petefins Go DOLPHINS

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    Didn't we try that with CB's not too long ago? Look how that turned out..

    Draft Bowe / Wallace and be done with it.
     
  13. mnphinfan

    mnphinfan Lifelong Fin Fan

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    Exactly! You know what I got from this paragraph in the article.

    I am to lazy to do my job. I only do the minimum of what is expected of me and nothing else. Doesn't it suck for you as fans of the Dolphins that you could have so much better than me?

    I gotta agree though with hoops on this one. The reason he was out so long this year is because he tried to play through the initial hamstring injury but made it worse. It wasn't so much that he was injury prone but just didn't give the hamstring enought time to heal. One's gotta think that with him being in a contract year that this factor weighed heavily on the decision to put the surgery off and try to play through the injury. However, after coming back from surgery Jennings looked like he hadn't lost a step. His routes were precise, he easily created separation from DB's and his YAC was something that as a Dolphin fan I have been yearning to see since the Clayton and Duper days. Also that back shoulder throw/catch to him 20 yards down the field is a thing of beauty. IMO he is the best WR in the NFL at getting his head around to locate and catch the ball on that route. Him just being in the film room would also help give the other WR's insight as to how to better run their routes against coverages. There are just certain nuances to each NFL offense that you learn from playing in it for a long time and Jennings input on these would be invaluable. I would be very happy to sign him as a FA. Give him 4 years at 32 mill (possibly 5 at 40 depending on other suitors) with 16-18 guanteed, resigne hartline for 6 years at 36 mil with 18 guanteed, keep Bess and Matthews and draft another WR in the 1st or 2nd round with a late round pick on a project we can hide on the PS for a year or two. That is a WR core I would be very happy with going into camp next year.
     
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  14. luduporcu

    luduporcu Banned Hammered

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    MARSHALL the WR doesn't live here anymore.
     
  15. mega-fin-love

    mega-fin-love Just trust me Donator

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    I don't want Jennings or Wallace if we have to over pay for them. At a decent price I would rather have Wallace. I want to see us draft 3 guys within our first 5 picks that catch the ball. Hopefully 2 receivers and 1 tight end.
     
  16. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    I see Jennings and 2 or 3 picks EARLY on the WR position.
     
  17. SQuinn17

    SQuinn17 League Dominator

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    Of course theyre going to give him a crappy grade, he was out most of the year. This guy is better than anything we got by leaps and bounds and could immediately help develop the likes of Rishard Matthews and Binns. If we can get him at 7 mil/yr, it shouldn't be a question.
     
  18. mnphinfan

    mnphinfan Lifelong Fin Fan

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    Brain Fart, I meant Matthews. Thanks for the head up. Anything else you'd like to add to the conversation?
     
  19. DolphanB

    DolphanB Scout Team

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    Philbin knows these players comprehensively and I am sure vetoed the Flynn deal in favor of going for Tannehill in the draft.

    If Philbin wants Jennings, then I trust his judgment.

    Jennings had a sub par contract year, elite competition in free agency and a very deep WR draft class, so his market value is well below that he would like. Ireland does not need to overpay Jennings if Philbin wants him.
     
  20. Zounds

    Zounds CPA4LYFE Donator

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    The good news is that we dont have to rely on Armando's sportswriting sham as insight into Greg Jennings, because Philbin has direct knowlege of Jennings. The Fins already know what Jennings is worth to a team, much like we knew about Matt Flynn and Ryan Tannehill when we researched them.
     
  21. Penntastic

    Penntastic Well-Known Member

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    still want him for the right price of course.
     
  22. finfan54

    finfan54 A True Fan Donator

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    In the end, I think it doesnt matter about the injuries, the philbin connection, or how old he is.

    Philbin said they are not getting FA who are playing for a contract. They will make an offer and move on. It wont be to their liking....and then the tweets and articles come badmouthing Ireland....and then the draft will come and everyone will forget all about it cus they will have a bunch of new groceries to salivate over. All around the age of 22.
     
  23. Mogwai

    Mogwai Seasoned Veteran

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    I have nothing against signing Jennings. I might prefer Wallace, but there are a ton of positives with bringing in Greg. He'll be cheaper. He's very familiar with the system. He's not THAT old. I think we can pick him up on a reasonable contract and be a much better team for it. BUT I'm also someone who would love to pickup Cordarelle, Stedman, and Marquess in the first 4 rounds. Include that with re-signing Hartline and there's a big time crunch at WR. I'd sooner pass on resigning Hartline and bring in Jennings or Wallace AND draft those 3 rookies.
     
  24. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    Armando is being ripped for that? It was a terrific angle for a column, to borrow a local perspective. It's ridiculous that more writers don't do it. I don't care how closely you follow the Packers, or the Giants, or you name it, you don't know as much as the locals do, the ones who sweat out every play and every position.

    I've used that strategy in Las Vegas for decades. If somebody shows up in town who is a sharp guy and a Falcons fan, for example, he's going to know a lot more about team tendencies than I could pretend to find out.
     
  25. gregorygrant83

    gregorygrant83 A True Fan

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    Jennings would be fine if you're talking about building a team to contend in 2013. If you're talking about building a team for the next 4 or 5 years I think he's a waste of time. The way I see it Miami will likely be second in AFC East next season with or without Jennings, so why not focus on quality youth and build your future offensive core.
     
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  26. fanfin

    fanfin A True Fan

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    jennings should be #1 target. then wallace, bowe, maybe even call arizona or minnesota for fitzgerald or harvin. but I think they will sign Jennings. They also n eed to use the #12 pick on Cal WR Keenan Allen, Louisiana Tech WR Quinton Patton or ND TE Tyler Eifert
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyLHvJ0h4l4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k56aIsZ3hOo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCXSSOMJMS8

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhdVSwSPIoc

    people say Allen isn't good with the ball in his hands or YAC??

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUVYuKAjDIo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqJRd3mN01w
     
  27. So Be

    So Be A True Fan

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    Bottom line is that, IF available, Sebastian Volmer may be the best FA option. Maybe we can get the Cane's mascot to talk to him, Sebastian to Sebastian. :)
     
  28. MrEd

    MrEd Banned Hammered

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    Going by the "read between the lines" take on Ireland's PC.....he is negociating with bring back Jake Long, flirting with the "hard decision" of letting Hartline walk, mentioned upgrading the "slot" WR and the "mix" of veterans with the young guys all but points to Greg Jennings being the "vet" added to compliment Patterson in the draft. At least that's what I read from it.
     
  29. fakespike

    fakespike Starter

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    I just hope we make some reasonable decisions, something we seem to have lacked in FA and the draft in recent years (actually always come to think of it lol).

    Jennings could integrate pretty seamlessly and be a decent alpha receiver. But to compare the upsides of Jennings and Wallace, you'll need a logarithmic scale; Wallace is younger, faster, quicker and could have caught up to most of those overthrown deepballs from Tannehill.

    If we forgo Wallace, I'd just sign OL and DE in FA and go all out WR in the draft. Sign Vollmer and Levitre, let Long walk. Sign Avril or another impact defender. Draft Allen/Patterson, Ertz, Bailey, etc.
     

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