Miami 18th in total defense

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by where's th'fish, Oct 11, 2017.

  1. where's th'fish

    where's th'fish Scout Team Donator

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    Hey, just wanted to counter the "2nd in total defense" thread with better stats from FO. I was thinking about posting them anyway regarding the perception that the offense sucks but the defense is doing well. So is it? Well, kind of.

    Offense: 31st, 29th passing, 30th running. No surprises here.

    Defense: 18th, 29th against the pass, 2nd against the run.

    The 2nd against the run is very impressive, no doubt. Quick note: The Titans are, overall, the 22nd pass offense. That's remarkable, since Mariota is ranked as the 7th best passer. FOs numbers have a correction for strength of schedule, but last Sunday is boosting our numbers more than it should.

    By comparison, in 2016 we were the 19th defense, 16th against the pass and 22nd against the run.

    In short, our offense has plummeted, but our defense is still mediocre, just like it was last year. By comparison, they're playing great, but in reality that pass defense will lose way more games than the run defense will win as opponents start to catch up to that.

    Quick note: These numbers don't reflect who's better or who's worse or what a team is, they're simply a description of what the results have been so far.

    Edit: These are not plain yards, this is DVOA, yards adjusted per situation and opponent.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
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  2. Michael Scott

    Michael Scott A True Fan

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    They've performed at a top 10 level when factoring in how awful the offense has been. Can't stay on the field ffs. The defense gets off the field and four plays and a commercial break later here they are again.
     
  3. russianbear

    russianbear FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    sounds like these numbers are based on yards which i don't think most people use as the true measuring stick of a defense...

    i prefer using stats such as : total points allowed, yards per rush allowed, yards per play, etc...especially with how many snaps our defense seems to be playing the first few weeks...
     
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  4. DuderinoN703

    DuderinoN703 We? What the **** we? Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Defense is 4th in points against, second worst in completion % allowed, allowed the 7th fewest total pass yards, and are 22nd in pass yards allowed per game.

    The rush defense has allowed the second fewest yards allowed, they're third in average rush per play, and have allowed 2 rush TDs in 4 games.

    Yes this is in 4 games where most teams have played 5. Yes they've played teams that aren't elite. I find these stats, right now, to be impressive based on how little sustained drives the offense actually musters.
     
  5. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    Yards allowed means absolutely nothing.
     
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  6. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    The defense stunk the first two weeks. The fact that we didn't give up more points had to do with who we played and how bad the Chargers' kicker was, and the fact that the Jets were able to just coast the entire second half.

    Team defense was very, very good against Tennessee on Sunday. It's not about the team's statistical ranking, but rather the fact that I saw a team that was able to cover and tackle people short of the sticks, force pass breakups, get amazing penetration and stuff run plays, pressure the quarterback, and snuff out screen passes at the LoS.

    It's true that we got lucky on Sunday and had a deep touchdown against us called back, but let's also consider how long that group was on the field and how talented the Tennessee offense is outside of their backup QB. That's a good unit.
     
  7. where's th'fish

    where's th'fish Scout Team Donator

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    They're based on the situation. For example, 1 yard in 3rd and 1 is more valuable than 5 yards on 3rd and 10. Also, garbage time yards are penalized and stuff like that.
     
  8. where's th'fish

    where's th'fish Scout Team Donator

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    That's true, we played a lot better, even accounting for Cassel. Hopefully we're these guys and not those guys.
     
  9. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Maualuga and Timmons made a big difference. I was highly skeptical of Maualuga coming in and contributing anything, but he was good in run support, just getting up there, fighting off blocks, and stopping stuff cold. You combine that with the kind of play Timmons showed getting to the perimeter and then finishing tackles, and it had a huge impact on our defense. IF those two players continue that sort of play and remain healthy, I think we will see a defense that much more resembles the group we saw Sunday.
     
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  10. dolphintodd

    dolphintodd FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Points scored is the best way to measure both offense and defense... Yards mean nothing.
     
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  11. DuderinoN703

    DuderinoN703 We? What the **** we? Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I wonder why the Jets coasted in the 2nd half. Here are the Dolphins drives in the 3rd/4th quarters:

    1st possession: 3 and out. 2 incompletions and -5 yards on an Ajayi run.
    2nd possession: 4 and out. 2 passes for 3 yards, an incomplete pass, and an INT thrown by the punter.
    3rd possession: Started at own 25 and got to Jets 21. 4 incomplete passes later turnover on downs.
    4th possession: Started at own 10, got to Jets 42 yd line thanks to 2 completions and a roughing the passer. On 4th and 6, Cutler throws a 4 yard pass to Parker. Turnover on downs.
    5th possession: Started at own 45 and ends on a Cutler INT at the Jets 15.
    6th possession: Started at own 20 and ended on a literal last second TD to Parker.

    The only TD the defense allowed was when the Jets began at the Dolphins 49 yard line. The other possessions by the Jets resulted in a FG, a possession where they allowed 15 yards (also a PI on Howard), a forced fumble, and a 3 and out.

    If the offense actually resembled a competent offense the defense would be even better IMO.
     
  12. where's th'fish

    where's th'fish Scout Team Donator

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    Tank over Maxwell has been an upgrade as well, and Harris has played better. Yeah, there's reason for optimism.
     
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  13. rent this space

    rent this space Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Defensive(and offensive) rankings are always based on total yards allowed. is DVOA one of those judgment-based stats?
     
  14. BenchFiedler

    BenchFiedler Undrafted Pro-Bowler

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    I'm confused!!! Dolphins Defense 18th or 2nd in total defense???
     
  15. rent this space

    rent this space Starter Finheaven VIP

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    officially we are 2nd
     
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  16. Dolphindrew

    Dolphindrew Starter

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    This is a totally different defense now with Ray M, Timmons, Tankersley instead of nitwit, the coaches figuring out Hayes needs more playing time, and the development of younger guys like Godchaux, Harris and even both corners. Far cry still from a Denver defense, but it's not the unit any Dolphins fan is remotely concerned with going into any game at this point. Also, and in my mind the most important variable - keep in mind the offense is making them play about 10 game minutes too many every damn week. You have to account for all of that - something season-to-date numbers don't do.
     
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  17. where's th'fish

    where's th'fish Scout Team Donator

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    Again, guys, it's really hard to measure how good a team does. Every stat has limitations. DVOA is based on yards, but it's not just yards, it's how valuable those yards are towards the goal of getting first downs, which is how you score points. For example, 1 yard on 3rd and 1 is extremely valuable. It's not the same as 1 yard on 1st and 10 or 1 yard on 3rd and 10. So DVOA values yards according to how much they help the cause, and also adjusts per strength of opponent.

    On the numbers side, I think DVOA is the best method, and it's not even close. But it doesn't account for things like the Timmons situation, or the Mariota situation, let alone hurricanes and stuff.
     
  18. dolfan91

    dolfan91 Starter Donator

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    The updated stats as of Wednesday October 11th shows Miami as 8th in total defense giving up an average of 309.5 yards per game.
     
  19. traptses

    traptses Starter

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    Our defense being ranked that high is especially impressive when you factor in the fact our offense can’t keep them off the field
     
  20. miamiron

    miamiron A True Fan

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    I've been following the NFL since 1970 and I've yet to see a game
    won on yards alone
     
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  21. BlueUndertow

    BlueUndertow Well-Known Member

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  22. BlueFin

    BlueFin Seer of Visions Finheaven VIP

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    Don't agree...your too caught up in stats.

    Stopping the run forces the pass which plays into the pass rush....of course it spells more passing yards...but it equals less points.

    23.75 per game allowed in 2016

    16.75 per game allowed in 2017
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  23. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    how are we 18th? we are 8th in total yards given up per game and more importantly 4th in ppg
     
  24. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    If we go into hypothetical thinking, our offense has been our biggest deterrent towards our Defense. It's actually quite amazing how good our D has played while our Offense has literally been the worst I've ever witnessed. We have the talent on D to be top 15 overall by the end of the year. PPG are all that matter. Ask the Patriots last year whether or not they'd lead in allowing yards or points. Imagine if we could gain a first down!! They're playing great up to this point. Hopefully the offense can live up to being an "NFL caliber Offense" and stop looking worse than most High Schools..(not a joke)
     
  25. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    Ya usually points are what determine games. Can we just be happy when our D is 2nd in stopping the run and in PPG?!!? It's official!! Fin Fans will complain about anything and everything. Right now, the only thing we should be ridiculing is our inept offense. It almost feels like fin fans want to have a bad D just to say they were right about not having the talent to have a top D. Just like the Titans had Cassel, we had Cutler. Not much difference. Teams that played us must have the best Ds in the league. Right now, our Defense is playing as a stable squad unlike the offense which is holding back the D. Jets had almost what 40 mins of Time of possession? It's our terrible offense that cannot stay on the field for a first down. The problem is our offense and that's clear as day
     
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  26. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    You don't even have to say IMO brother. You're 100% correct. It's our terrible offense. We just stopped the best running game in the league. Can we EVER be happy? lol I'll answer that..NOPE!!
     
  27. SCLSU Mud Dogs

    SCLSU Mud Dogs foos-ball is the devil! Donator

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    Actually, in points allowed (which is the only stat that matters on defense) we're 4th in the NFL.

    With how well the D is playing, Miami should be 4-0, especially considering the pedestrian schedule so far.

    With Tannehill at QB this is a 4-0 team
     
  28. SCLSU Mud Dogs

    SCLSU Mud Dogs foos-ball is the devil! Donator

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    Also top 5 in the NFL in 3rd down percentage against.

    With how bad the offense is, it's amazing that the defense hasn't been hit more.

    For all those that crucified Burke before the product actually hit the field, this is why I prefer to wait and see what happens. So far (and there's still a lot of season left), it's looking like Burke has more versatility than Joseph did and is putting the guys in a position to make plays.
     
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  29. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    The biggest thing I saw out of our defense last week that I haven't seen in a while was screens getting blown up. Timmons is better than I thought he was going to be. He does not look like he's lost a step.
     
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  30. fishfanmiami

    fishfanmiami Have you seen junior's grades ? Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    I agree 100%. I was still pissed at Timmons for his no show but he quickly got my attention playing screens and short over the middle stuff much better than the guys we had there before.
    The guy played a solid game as did the whole LB unit. When was the last time we could say that ?
     
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  31. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Pretty sure the last time we could say that, Karlos Dansby was a Dolphin.
     
  32. where's th'fish

    where's th'fish Scout Team Donator

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    You can check my post history and you'll see DVOA is the only stat I'll ever quote. It's the best and it always has been. I don't think I'll be posting much more of it anymore, because people don't get it or don't care. I explained what it was a couple of times in this thread and people still think it's just yards. Barring changes in the team or unit, like Wanny talked about (only poster in this thread who's said anything relevant to the original post), DVOA will kick the crap out of any other team/unit stat mentioned in this site (not player stat, team or unit is where it works best), including points, 8 times out of 10. It's a sophisticated, very well thought-out and battle tested descriptor. Again, it's not predictor, it won't tell what will happen, it will only tell what did happen.

    OTOH, if people just want data that makes them happy, DVOA rates the New England defense 32nd overall, 32nd against the pass and 27th against the pass. There. Now DVOA is awesome again.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2017 at 10:51 AM
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  33. Daytona Fin

    Daytona Fin Smoking Hole at the Hard Rock Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    How does our time of possession stack up against the league?
     
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  34. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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  35. where's th'fish

    where's th'fish Scout Team Donator

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    You could argue that defenses that are on the field longer get tired late, but it's actually our own offense that seems to be doing most of its damage late, for whatever that's worth. In any case, the Atlanta game will be interesting because so far we've played two of the best and two of the worst pass offenses, but Atlanta right now ranks only 14th. If the upward trend continues against Matty Ice, we'll have good reason for optimism. In that area, anyway.
     
  36. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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  37. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    I believe you brother. I'm just messing around and not directly at you. You've always been a good poster for the site. I'm just so tired of looking like a middle school team..We look terrible. Ya, I'll have to take a good look into DVOA. No, brother keep posting it. I just don't understand it that well that's all. Would that system of rating defenses catch the Reshad Jones 5 yd TFL Vs. the Saints or Brees BS 4th and 1 spot (or no since officially the play was what it was)? I'm sure it wouldn't but I figured Id ask. I'd love to know more about it. Keep posting where's th'fish!! I think as a fan base we're all just disgusted with our play this season. If you felt like I was discounting your post, I am very sorry. I wouldn't want someone to do that to me or make me feel like that I couldn't post real stats. I'm so bummed how this season is turning out even though we're 2-2. Now onto the good teams!! As if Jay Cutler didn't have enough trouble against the Jets, Saints, and Titans defenses, welcome to Atlanta Jay!! I went from being extremely confident every game to not knowing if we'll score a TD. Something's gotta give man. With Parker out, we'd be very dumb not to throw a few go routes to Jakeem. At least try and not with Marqueis Gray on the field lol (Jakeem had a for sure TD that play) Sucks when you need points like we do. Cutler needs to throw the ball with balance which will lead to velocity and accuracy (not on skates like he's shown). Usually a win's a win to me but I cannot even consider last week something to be happy about. We all know if Mariota was playing we'd have gotten destroyed. You could say the same thing about RT. His value around here had to go up tenfold. Battle of the backup bums last week. Cutler could be a hero if we somehow beat the Falcons. I'm sure Gase knows his 0-2 record against Dan Quinn probably will extend to 0-3. Or maybe just maybe we could come out and play like a professional football team. You have a good one brother!! Hopefully tomorrow afternoon you can post updated DVOA stats with a W. You have great day!! PHINS UP!!!
     
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  38. dahlmarino

    dahlmarino Hating The Jets With A Passion Since '84

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    I'd imagine the only thing keeping us from being last in time of possession is how much time we spend getting to the line and snapping the ball. Do these stats penalize ToP for delay of game penalties?
     
  39. AZStryker

    AZStryker Pro Bowler

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    I can't decide which is worse, the crap from football outsiders or ESPN's qbr.
     
  40. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I can't see why it would
     

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