Milliner, Banks, and Rhodes: A Metrics Breakdown

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by NUGap, Feb 18, 2013.

  1. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    Regardless of whether Sean Smith re-signs, the Dolphins need a cornerback. The question is, do we want that CB in the first round? Personally, I'm on board for that, but to each their own. This is my first time charting CBs, so I'm more unsure about what's relevant statistically and what's not. I did my best to parse out the important things and there's a lot more charts on the site to check out if you want more.

    As a note, unlike WRs where I note only when they are targeted, I’ve charted a variety of factors on each and every snap when it comes to CBs. Thus, I used a 4 game sample, which is normally smaller than I’d like. However, I’m still happy with the sample and think it gets a good representation of these corners. Enjoy!

    Where Were They Targeted?

    These are the locations in which the cornerbacks were targeted. That is, it includes all outcomes such as completions, pass interference, deflections, etc.

    [​IMG]

    • All of the CBs were challenged in the 1-5 yard zone a plurality of the time. Nearly 50% of Banks’ targets came within a short distance of the LOS. Similarly Milliner’s 33% and Rhodes 43% are very high. This high percentage is likely due to shorter routes, including swing passes out of the backfield into their zones.
    • Less of Milliner’s targets came in the shorter zones, instead 50% of his targets came in the intermediate zones of 6-20 yards.
    • Xavier Rhodes was challenged deep most often with 19% of his total targets coming back 20 yards. This could either be indicative of the coverage FSU was playing or that quarterbacks often felt that Rhodes was vulnerable deep.

    What Happened After They Were Targeted?

    All of these are a function of total passes, not just targets. Thus 100 minus the percentage of No Throw would equal how often they were targeted. I’ve taken out interceptions, thus it won’t add to 100%,

    [​IMG]

    • In total Milliner and Banks were targeted roughly 21% of the time, while Rhodes was only targeted on 14.5% of all passes. This is clearly a significant drastic difference. This doesn’t necessarily mean Rhodes is the better corner. It could mean Florida State’s other CBs were bad enough to be targeted more. Still it’s worth checking out due to the drastic nature of the difference.
    • Milliner deflected more balls than the others with 3.48% of all passes deflected (which works out to roughly 16% of all targets). We should note that Banks had more interceptions which isn’t reflected in this chart.
    • Rhodes had a few pass interference penalties in my sample, which would actually count as worse than completions due to the distance given up on each PI call.

    Where Did They Line Up?

    Even though we know where they were targeted, what technique were they playing? While I didn’t try to decipher the playbooks to figure out the coverages, I at least noted where they were aligned pre-snap. As a note, the CBs had to get their hands on the WRs to count as press coverage. The yardage refers to how far they were from the line of scrimmage.

    [​IMG]


    • Rhodes by far was the most “versatile” cornerback. He played press coverage nearly 21%of the time compared to only 13% for Milliner and 8% for Banks. The distribution over each zone is nearly equal for Rhodes.
    • The majority of Milliner’s snaps were taken close to the line of scrimmage. Nearly 56% of his snaps were a 1-5 yard zone pre-snap look, while he played press- bail 22.6% of the time.
    • Some have spoken of Banks’ physicality, while this doesn’t prove anything, around 85% of his snaps were started off the line of scrimmage between 1 and 10 yards. He almost never played press-bail at only 6% of the time.

    Average Distance of Completions
    This is simply the average distance in yards of a completion against each CB. Note that these are before yards after the catch.

    [​IMG]


    • The average completions against both Milliner and Banks are around the 8 yard range with Milliner’s being slightly higher.
    • Rhodes’ average distance is much lower at 5.7 yards. Whether that’s due to his play in the ACC or physicality, Rhodes did not give up deep passes on average.

    I have a litany of other charts and data that I’m going to post below. I’m not even going to try to analyze them because you could be here for weeks reading them. Among them we have completions by down, first downs, targets by alignment, etc. You can find those here:

    Milliner, Banks and Rhodes: A Metrics Breakdown
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 18, 2013
  2. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Excellent breakdown! I think that all three of these CB will be outstanding on Sunday buy I am biased toward Rhodes because I am an FSU alum and have watched nearly every play of his career. I am very interested in hearing the gurus on this site break down your data.

    I do know that Rhodes is fairly hard to beat long and he is a beast on third down or when the game is on the line. They started a freshman opposite him must of the year albeit a very talented one and neither gave up much at all. Drafting a lot of defensive players from FSU and Alabama would be very wise this year as they were two very special defenses.

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  3. uk_dolfan

    uk_dolfan Founder of the FH Adam Gase fan club Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I want one of Milliner or Banks at 12 (would be amazing if Milliner falls to us) so this is appreciated :up:
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Love the breakdown. One small correction. When you say "In total Milliner and Banks were targeted roughly 31% of the time, while Rhodes was only targeted on 14.5% of all passes." I think you mean that Banks and Milliner were targeted 21% of the time. Seems like a simply typo.
     
  5. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    Very interesting. Now if I'm a scout, I want to see how these guys do against the best wide receivers in the nation. I think both Banks and Rhodes will rise before April. I've seen mocks with both going low 1st or early 2nd. I can't imagine it wil look like that on draft day.
     
  6. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    I posted somewhere in FH how Banks and Milliner did against Hunter and Patterson. Here are the results of DeAndre Hopkins versus Rhodes:

    19 total times lined up against each other. 2 Completions for Hopkins for 4 yards, 1 pass breakup for Rhodes on a target of 4 yards.

    Rhodes didn't fare as well against Quintin Payton of NC State. Payton was targeted 5 times for 4 completions and 1 pass breakup. Don't really have any more data on big wide receivers like Payton, Marcus Davis from VT had one catch on him

    ---------- Post added at 12:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:30 PM ----------

    Thank you and fixed. It's not smart to write while tired.
     
  7. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Awesome stuff as usual.

    Is this going to be a two-parter - like your WR breakdown? For me, Milliner and Rhodes are options at 12. My top two CB's. If Miami doesn't pull the trigger on one of them at 12 (assuming either is available), I would have them wait until the 2nd. I don't know how high Alford will ultimately go, but he's the next guy I'd target - followed by Banks, Trufant, and Poyer (in that order).
     
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  8. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. Yeah forgot to mention that, there will be a 2nd tier with Poyer, Trufant and Slay. I wanted to add Poyer to this group but just ran out of time. There are so many interesting CB prospects that by draft time I may have a third tier with Logan Ryan and a few others (Amerson? Hawthorne? Not sure yet)
     
  9. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Great to hear.
     
  10. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    Missed this post the first time around. I'm definitely intrigued. I had gone into this having looked a lot at Banks and Milliner but at almost nothing on Rhodes. Now I'm very curious about his combine performance and to look at him in a non-charting manner. Someone had told me that he wasn't particularly great in run support, despite his size, so I'd like to go back and look at that. Not sure if that's true. or not.

    EDIT: In about three of the games I watched, Rhodes went out with a stinger for a drive and then suddenly came back fine. Is this normal for him? Does he have a history of injuries. The games I'm thinking of were Miami, Clemson and VT if I remember correctly.
     
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  11. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    He has never been out for more than a few plays to my knowledge. He is pretty good in run support from what I have seen but maybe not amazing. He will lay the wood, especially in big games, which could account for the stingers. I haven't watched a lot of Milliner and definitely not Banks but I would be thrilled with Rhodes, even at 12. The combine/pro days will tell us a lot about who is/are the true stud(s).

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  12. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

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    One thing I forgot to mention/ write anywhere is that Johnthan Banks blitzed on 10% of all passing snaps. This compares to only 3.5% for Milliner and 2% for Rhodes. I'm not sure if that means anything or has any relevance, but found the different interesting nonetheless.
     
  13. SMadison29

    SMadison29 What Sherman aspires to be

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    It'll be interesting to see Trufant's numbers because he deserves to be in that second tier with Banks & Rhodes. There's a large list of third tier corners.
     

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