Mock 2 - Three Rounds

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by SF Dolphin Fan, Nov 6, 2012.

  1. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    1. Jake Matthews
    Hear me out on this one. I think Miami ends up franchising Jake Long and signing him for one year. Without a long-term contract the team can gauge his value over the 2013 season and make a decision from there. Matthews could be his replacement, or he could slide to RT with Jonathan Martin moving to LT. Keep in mind that Joe Philibin knows the value of the offense line and Matthews has connections with Mike Sherman. He would transition easily to this offense. Doesn't hurt that he's a heck of a player with incredible bloodlines as his father was one of the best offensive linemen to ever play the game. I know fans wouldn't necessarily like the pick, but Matthews could play guard early on and give the team a championship caliber line.

    2. Corey Lemonier
    He's a guy that could go end of 1st or early 2nd so may require a slight trade up. Dolphins need a pass rusher opposite Cam Wake and Lemonier provides that. Great motor.

    2. Tavon Austin
    Miami will likely bring in a free agent wide receiver, but they need plenty of help there. Austin is a playmaker who drops due to lack of size. He also has returnability.

    2. Trade Up (3 & 4 pick) Desmond Trufant
    The luxury of having so many picks is that Miami can target a player it wants and move up. Trufant is exactly the type of player the secondary needs and this is a prime area that needs an upgrade.

    3. Robert Lester
    I think he drops a bit as he's skills aren't elite. But he is a smart player who always seems to be in the right place. Third round might be a little optimistic on my part.
     
  2. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter Finheaven VIP

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    If you're drafting an OT with the first pick, you're not gaging anything. You don't franchise tag a LT and then draft his replacement unless you plan on losing several of your own free agents...that's a $15 million dollar gauge...that makes no sense and it's bad business. You're certainly not going to be players in the free agent market if you tie up more than 12% of you cap space on one player.

    Lemonier is more of a tweener to me. Undersized DE, good fit in the 3-4, high motor, good pass rush moves. Not sure how he would hold up against the run in the NFL.

    I don't like Tavon Austin in the 2nd...not enough value for me. He's a slot receiver at best so you've essentially negated Bess who should be in the slot and not on the boundary and still haven't addressed the boundary where we need the most help.
     
  3. SCOTTY

    SCOTTY Well-Known Member

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    This mock draft makes no sense at all. I think I threw up a lil in my mouth when you said tag Long then draft Oline with our first.
     
  4. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    I like Bess, but Austin would provide another dimension with his big-play ability. He's the guy who could take a short pass to the house something Bess doesn't do. Although Austin is best suited for the slot he can also beat people deep. Yes, I agree we need that boundary receiver more and I'm hoping maybe we can get that player in free agency. As to Matthews, I think there's a good chance that Miami doesn't sign Jake Long. That will be an interesting decision this offseason. Picking around 18, I could see Matthews as a target.
     
  5. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    I hear you, but I really think this is a possibility. As of now, Miami is slated to pick around 18th. At that point, the top two corners (Milliner and Banks) will be gone as they are likely top 10 picks. The top pass rushers (Jones, Werner, Jordan, Mingo) should be gone. Allen should be gone. I think the Dolphins will be looking at players like Hunter, who I like, Matthews (Texas A'M connection/some concerns with Jake Long), Woods, Eifert, Montgomery. I think Philibin will place a high value on the offensive line, maybe not round 1, but probably higher than fans might expect.
     
  6. finsfanjay13

    finsfanjay13 Rookie Donator

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    Austin would get *crushed* over the middle in the NFL, in my opinion (read: DeSean Jackson). I'd rather get Stedman Bailey who has an inch and fourteen pounds on Austin. I'd also argue that Bailey has better hands. He's not as fast, but I believe he makes up for it with better route running and fantastic catches.
     
  7. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    not a fan...if you're gonna get a de he better have high end rush tools...i think lemonier has a decent arsenal i guess but lacks explosion and burst...if you're taking jake matthews which i can absolutely get behind cause i think he's a terrific fit you are letting jake long walk...matthews looks like a plug and play nfl right tackle in a zbs...why would i use my top pick in 2013 on a swing tackle in year 1???

    i think lester is a guy that because of the things you mentioned is there in round 3...but what's the real upside there...nothing he does is elite level upside imo...although i do think he has instincts...he may also be a guy that's protected like a lot of those bama kids have been of late by the talent around him...

    i like tavon austin in round 2 cause that kids explosive and he has a lot of specials versatility but not over a boundary wr...not when bess is playing so well in the slot...i'd rather if i'm going slot wait til the 3rd and pluck a swope...if i go slot at all...swope is another guy that knows how to run option routes and very smart...

    key with whatever wrs we bring is is they need to be coverage id and route smart and they need to run solid routes...

    as for desmond trufant i like that i think but i want to see how tall he measures in at come combine time...i have some is he 5 ft 10 reservations there...i would agree that odds on milliner or banks cause of their length and the fact they will test well and play against such high end comp each week getting out of the top 15 very slim
     
  8. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter Finheaven VIP

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    You're not getting that player in free agency if you tag Long. $15 million for Long...another $10 million or so for a free agent WR...that's $25 million of approximately $124 million cap...20% of the cap on two players? Awful business.

    Let's say we have $60 million in cap space next year (that's on the high side) with 23 players scheduled to be free agents next year...that leaves 30 players signed for the 2013 season. You've just spent $25 million on two players leaving you $35 million to sign the other 21 players you need to fill the roster...about $7 million will be used to sign the rookie class and lets say they all stick (unlikely but just for kicks). So now we have 41 players, 9 of which are rookies, and $28 million left to sign 12 more players. That averages out to be about $2.3 million per player. Lets say we re-sign Hartline ($6 million), Smith ($8 million) and Fasano ($5 million)...and I'm being conservative with the salaries here...that leaves you $9 million to sign 8 players...in the mean time you have no QB behind Tannehill cause re-signing Moore to backup money is $5 million right there and Devlin is also a free agent and re-signing him would probably be $3 million, Bush, Starks, Clemons, McDaniel, Garner, Trusnik, Marlon Moore and Spitler (those last three just put a heck of a dent in your special teams) among others. You can't sign a veteran backup QB because you won't have the money to fill the roster...you've severly hampered the team in terms of experienced depth and you're relying on rookies to get you over the hump....good luck with that.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 6, 2012
  9. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I like Lemonier, but as truth said, he's a bit of a tweener, and if you're going to spend a 1st or 2nd on a tweener, dude better be B. Irvin explosive. Austin is a guy I'd feel better about in the 3rd. I'm not going to cry about getting an explosive player like that, but I'd much prefer his teammate, S. Bailey (in one of his threads, Slimm has a great write up - with video - on Bailey).

    In this draft, we need WR's (and offensive players in general) who can score TD's.
    We need guys who can get to the QB.
    We need help in the secondary.
    We likely need to find a RT (assuming Martin would kick over to LT).
    And we probably need a legitimate RB - see as how box-of-rock Miller might never learn the playbook.
     
  10. SCOTTY

    SCOTTY Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Oline is even a remote possibility with our first. Not even if we are picking in the low 20s. I have no doubt that we will go skill position. Best CB or DE on the board. If the guy we are targeting in a late first rounder then I wouldn't rule out a trade back dropping us 5 to 7 picks and getting another pick.
     
  11. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    I like Bailey's toughness. I'd be down with that.
     
  12. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    Honestly, I would love to see Miami get Jordan or Werner in Round 1 and then trade back in for Hunter or Eifert. That would be a great scenario IMO. I just have this feeling that keeps creeping up that Matthews could be our guy. I don't know if Miami signs Long. Based on his play this year and his injury concerns, I think they might let him go. That could definitely change the draft significantly.
     
  13. fakespike

    fakespike Starter

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    i'll endorse your draft if you replace "tag Long" with "let Long walk and sign Mike Wallace with the money saved". then i'd be all about drafting Mathews (or Joeckel) round 1. im sold on either after seeing the pocket they maintained versus Alabama
     
  14. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    I'd be down with that as well. It's looking more and more like Miami might have a top 10 pick again so the team might be able to add an elite pass rusher. But if they do let Jake Long go, Jake Matthews would be a perfect fit for this system. Some interesting choices for sure.
     
  15. MadDog 88

    MadDog 88 Smoke 'em Jay Finheaven VIP

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    The Dolphins are not paying the Sieve 15 mil next season. I'll be surprised if Jake is on this team unless he takes a HUGE pay cut. He is not worth the money.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    My only problem with Lemonier is a lack of bend and flexibility at the bottom of his rush. I don't think burst or athleticism are an issue for him. He's a ferrari.

    Starting to wonder if Desmond Trufant won't make it up into the 1st round. He's a popular guy.

    IMO, if you're going to take Ryan Swope you might as well just keep Davone Bess...unless you think you can monetize Bess into a nice draft pick. Bess is only accounting for $3.4 million of next year's salary cap. When I talk about replacing Davone Bess it's usually because I want more explosiveness in the skill positions...not the same amount.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Let me offer a mock draft of my own:

    1st Round (High Pick): DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State - The most complete defensive end in the Draft. He's not just your typical smart/high motor white guy at defensive end. His take-off from the blocks and reactions to the snap are consistently among the best I've seen. He has the pure ability to blow by guys like they're standing still, but he combines that with good eyes for and immediate reaction to the action in the backfield, and excellent hand use. He slimmed down this year and looks more explosive than ever, while still being a wrecking ball against the run, and having the same knack for getting his hands up and batting passes that you see in a J.J. Watt. There have been times they've put him up in a two point stance and allowed him freedom in his rush, and the results have been spectacular. Werner will be terrorizing offenses for the next decade. He's the perfect complement to Cameron Wake, who by the way will turn 31 years old before this year's Super Bowl is played. You do have to start thinking about which defensive end will take over and be dominant when Cameron Wake starts to fall off, which could happen as soon as three or four years from now. He has an A+ character background as well. He became the architect of his own future NFL career at 15 to 16 years old. Nobody did anything for him, literally. And he's already married, which is considered a good thing from a character standpoint where NFL scouts are concerned.

    2nd Round (High Pick): CB Desmond Trufant, Washington - Mr. Trufant is becoming a popular man, as I've mentioned. If you try and wait for him to fall down the boards you may miss out. I also like Terry Hawthorne around this area of the Draft, and that may come into play because you may not even get Trufant at the top of the 2nd round. Corners with his kind of movement ability, burst, explosiveness and innate physicality tend to rise. There may not be enough corners in this Draft with his level of speed, either. Down the road if he's not working out as a corner, you can probably move him to free safety and still get production out of him. He has the hips for either spot.

    2nd Round (Low Pick): WR Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech - This is a guy that I have had to slowly get more and more familiar with as a player because I hadn't done any preseason work on him. The more I saw, the more I liked what I saw. He's got excellent foot quickness and balance. The quickness helps him make a lot of people miss with the ball in his hands. He's actually got underrated size. The only weakness and the reason you'd get him this far down the board to begin with is his deep speed and inability to create separation with straight up speed. Still it wouldn't surprise me if he were gone by the time we reached this pick. I envision Patton as a guy that could work the slot or the split end position and provide just as much at those positions as we would see from Davone Bess or Brian Hartline.

    3rd Round (High Pick): WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon State - This receivers unit needs an overhaul. I think we can agree on that. Absent a considerable free agent signing (Greg Jennings?), I'm looking at conducting the overall through the Draft. Wheaton is one of the most explosive wide receivers in this Draft. He's lightning speed and quickness combined with a knack for pulling in the ball despite physical coverage. He has a lot of the same foot quickness as Patton but with more long speed but less size. You could imagine these two working together for a while. The problem for Wheaton is he could be anywhere from Mike Wallace all the way down to Tiquan Underwood. You don't know how he'll handle the physicality of the NFL at his size (6'0", 190 lbs) until he actually gets there. But this guy can blow the top off zone coverage, and unlike what you see in some other burners, he can run routes. An alternative to taking Wheaton here could be to go after Virginia Tech's Corey Fuller some time later. Fuller is a natural athlete with blazing speed and I have always found him a more compelling player than his more impressively sized counterpart, Marcus Davis. Fuller is on a fast ascent after starting out a track and field player then converting to football.

    3rd Round (Low Pick): RB Dennis Johnson, Arkansas - Dennis Johnson has spent so much time on my radar screen that, quite frankly, no matter which team he goes to I will be glad to see him finally out of the college football ranks. I have had a high grade on his potential as a running back since he embarrassed the Florida Gators repeatedly with broken tackles back in 2009. Questions about work ethic and a few injuries have kept him from reaching his potential, but to me he's still like a 215 lbs version of Darren Sproles. He has the same quickness at a bigger size and with uncanny tackle breaking ability fueled by his ever-churning feet. He's become a pretty damn good blocker over the years as well. I like that he's been through the school of hard knocks a little bit at Arkansas, with some disappointment along the way, some lessons learned. In the NFL at his position, success is fleeting and you're not often given the chance to be "the man" by yourself. But this guy is going to be a steal wherever he goes, you can mark me on that. Miami appears set to let Reggie Bush walk and Daniel Thomas is not even worth a roster spot. I'm as high on Lamar Miller as anyone but he can't be your only guy and both he and Jonas Gray are big question marks at this point. It can't hurt to bolster this position.

    4th Round (High Pick): LB Jake Knott, Iowa State - This is a natural replacement for Kevin Burnett some time down the road when the Dolphins decide Burnett isn't making enough plays relative to his pay grade. Knott is as a pass covering linebacker almost exactly what Luke Kuechly was, in terms of instincts and ability. The difference is that Kuechly had better ability as a run stopper. But in today's game, especially if the Dolphins already have a wall of force on the front lines with Paul Soliai, Randy Starks, Bjoern Werner, Karlos Dansby and Koa Misi, then having the kind of plus instincts you get from a coverage linebacker in the short areas of the field can be the difference between a pretty good defense and a championship defense. Teams love to throw the football around in the short areas of the field like extended run plays. They love option routes. Getting some linebackers that can show the instincts and ball skills to take the football away in those areas is a premium.
     
  18. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter Finheaven VIP

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    I think you're being generous on Wheaton being 190 lbs. I'm not that high on Werner but I do like the next 3 picks.
     
  19. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Paint on My Hands from Paintin the Perfect Picture Finheaven VIP Donator

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    CK when do you have us taking a look at our situation at guard. Seems clear that we need a better athlete at both spots but especially at LG.

    Sent from my LS670 using Tapatalk 2
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Think you can look at that position in free agency. Evan Dietrich-Smith is a free agent and Joe Philbin has experience with him in Green Bay, has played well when given the opportunity. Andy Levitre is a free agent.
     
  21. Valandui

    Valandui Lumberjack Batman Donator

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    I would **** myself if the draft panned out like that.
     
  22. MP-Omnis

    MP-Omnis Larry King, Antique Bandwagon

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    If we pick Werner, what happens to Olivier Vernon? I would crap my pants if we got Werner though.
     
  23. jim1

    jim1 Pro Bowler

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    I don't really see how you can say that Lemonier lacks explosion and burst. Take a look:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrsR9cmASpc

    I think that explosion and burst are his strengths as an undersized DE. He has plenty of both.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FM2XdkoiiUI
     
  24. Valandui

    Valandui Lumberjack Batman Donator

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    Depth for our DE rotation. That's how the Giants' DL stays so good. They have at least four guys who could start at DE on most teams in the league.
     
  25. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    Stedman Bailey in the 2nd.
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I'm tempted to lock Stedman Bailey into my 2nd round of every mock simulation, etc...but the fact of the matter is we don't know A) if he'll come out, or B) how high he's going to reach. Fact of the matter is there's probably a lot of fans of a lot of different teams trying to lock Stedman Bailey into the 2nd round of their simulations.
     
  27. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    I like your draft CK. If Miami ends up with a top 10 pick, Jarvis Jones, Bjoern Werner and Dee Milliner would be my top 3 targets. I agree that Werner would be the perfect fit for this defense and complement Wake nicely. What's your take on Da'Rick Rogers and Marques Wilson? Would it be worth the gamble to take one of those guys in the 2nd round? Also, who are some sleepers at tight end who could help this team?
     
  28. 2413fanphins

    2413fanphins A True Fan

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    in regards to CK's mock..

    I love the werner and jake knott picks. I go back and forth which LB from ISU I would rather have between knott and klein. I like them both a lot.

    In my mock I opted for de andre hopkins in the second and followed him up with david amerson. so there are some similarities there as far as positions addressed, but I couldn't convince myself trufant would be available so I went with hopkins and amerson. markus wheaton is a guy I could get behind in a scenario he fell to the phins.
     
  29. PhinSoldia

    PhinSoldia Miami Dolphin Columnist in the Making

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    this draft is assuming that we grab a high priced FA WR...THEN we tag Long for 15??? the only way i can say grab a T in the first round is in where Long walks which i think he will because to us he isnt worth 10 mill

    if im making a good assumption you want to pay said WR 8-12 M and then Long 15 M thats already almost 25 M on two players....no bueno
     

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