Bill Parcells wasn't going to pick Matt Ryan, not first. It would have violated numerous principals that Parcells properly believes in. Ryan was hardly a dynamic prospect, pegged for stardom for years. He split time as a sophomore. Fringe first round grade entering his senior year. Moderate arm. Limited physical upside. Impressive intangibles.
That's fine. It's not 1/10, as in overwhelming odds-on favorite, the range you need atop the draft, particularly at 2008 purse level. Parcells is a horse guy. He lives in Saratoga. I've seen him at the track several times during August. When horse racing was more in vogue the type of perspective that Parcells applies was commonly ingrained, and transported. You don't take anything at face value in racing. It's hardly matter of popping in the tape and saying wow look at that nice horsey. Was it down in class? Off a layoff? Try to outrun the pedigree and you'll collapse in the final furlong almost without exception. One or two recent races isn't sufficient to vault to odds-on favoritism in a legit field, unless the talent level is extra, extra special, a so-called freak.
That type of handicapping was standard when I first started following the draft. Now that racing has all but disappeared it's as if the lessons were lost, or never learned. Consequently we're giddy to vault modest talent far higher than they deserve, particularly at quarterback. Parcells may second guess the pick now but anyone who followed his career realized he'd never stray from his long held beliefs. This is the same guy who has a quarterback formula that Ryan flunked, not enough years started or games won. As soon as you want to dismiss it, it isolates Andy Dalton last year. Similarly, I remember when terrific but undersized linebackers were presented for evaluation when Parcells was in his heyday at the Giants. Parcells would check the height/weight and refuse to look at the tape, scoffing at the scout. Keep in mind this was simultaneous to the Dolphins and the bulk of the AFC loading up on receivers and defensive backs and an overall finesse lightweight approach. Pathetic. It's fashionable for the younger crowd to rip Parcells, or Al Davis, since they don't remember those trophy presentations and all the astute decisions that went into them. Granted, we got Parcells at 65, within a changing league he may not have fully grasped. I can't exactly envision Pat White drafted by those '80s Giants.
IMO, Ryan is a franchise quarterback only if you water down that term like late afternoon Miami August showers. What would it take for him to threaten a title, other than group NFC injuries at the quarterback position, or for Atlanta to somehow forge a line of scrimmage, smarts and intensity edge comparable to the '72 Dolphins?
Key the Green Bay games the past two years. That's the devastating tipoff. The Falcons were 13-3 yet embarrassed at home by the Packers. Rodgers entered with 8.2 yards per attempt to 6.5 for Ryan. Yet somehow Atlanta was favored. Last season Atlanta hosted Green Bay early season on Sunday night, a high profile quick revenge spot that on the surface was immensely favorable. Sure enough, Atlanta jumped to a quick 14-0 lead. I was already extremely worried about Green Bay's potential for undefeated, in a league that coddles truly great passers. But when Atlanta carried a 14-6 edge into halftime and the adjusted betting line equated to Green Bay getting points, you had to laugh more than evaluate. Rodgers plus points against Ryan? Can I have that every day?
Atlanta never scored another point. It's one thing to isolate Ryan for failing to dent the scoreboard at the Giants in an elimination game. He went scoreless in crunch time and put up only 156 yards passing against a Packer secondary that was shredded all season, especially on the road where they otherwise allowed at least 217 in every game.
Ryan with the rookie Jones bumped to 7.4 YPA overall in 2011 with the new interpretation of defense. Decent jump but Eli soared all the way to 8.4. Rodgers was 9.2.
I think I'd want to cry if my team were stuck with him for another half decade or more. Others will disagree. I'd prefer to gamble on getting it right somewhere along the line, and not forced to pay a borderline second tier guy the money that Ryan will demand. One arm or shoulder injury of any note and he's already forfeited more margin for error than he owns.
Anyway, I'm more and more convinced we'll have our own reach soon enough on a quarterback who doesn't fit the dosage index, and this topic will be largely shelved. Jeff Ireland is a tough guy in his mind only. He knows the ridicule and the vultures are real this time, closer to his head. He can't fend off the inevitable for much longer minus a distracting tool. In this league at current video game erosion, that means new quarterback only. Ozzie Guillen didn't want to apologize for the Castro remarks. He'd have preferred to rant like Nathan R. Jessup. But Ozzie understood he was stuck. Even if he's not thrilled with quarterbacks 3 and lower, Ireland is similarly stuck, and with no prospect of a comparable general manager position elsewhere, perhaps for the bulk of his career, given the personality issues and how well known they've become.
