No love for Daniel Thomas

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fins1971, Jan 11, 2013.

  1. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    I really don't understand the hate that Daniel Thomas receives from this sites posters.


    The guy was a key part of us scoring TD's in the Red Zone over the last 2 years.
    He gets critical yards on the goal-line when no blocking is there.

    He was a late 2nd round pick that came to a team with offensive line problems.
    What did you expect for him to lead the league in rushing?

    I think he has done quite well considering the team he is playing on and the blocking he receives.

    Lets compare his production to other backs taken early in the 2011 draft

    Round, Pick, Player, Results

    1, 28, Mark Ingram, 295 touches, 1151 yards from scrimage, 10 TD's
    2, 38, Ryan Williams, 65 touches, 208 yards from scrimage, 0 TD's
    2, 56, Shane Vareen, 85 touches, 457 yards from scrimage, 5 TD's
    2, 57, Mikel LeShoure, 249 touches, 1012 yards from scrimage, 9 TD's
    2, 62, Daniel Thomas, 283 touches, 1134 yards from scrimage, 5 TD's
    3, 71, Demarco Murray, 385 touches, 1990 yards from scrimage, 6 TD's
    3, 93, Stevan Ridley, 386 touches, 1768 yards from scrimage, 13 TD's
    3, 96, Alex Green, 157 touches, 606 yards from scrimage, 0 TD's
    4, 105, Roy Helo, 209 touches, 1066 yards from scrimage, 3 TD's
    4, 115, Kendall Hunter, 209 touches, 1099 yeard from scrimage, 4 TD's

    So, Thomas being the 5th back taken in the draft has the 4th most yards, and 5th most TD's playing on a team with bad blocking.
    And we have him under contract for the next 2 years on the cheap.

    He is part of the solution for the next few years and not the problem. He is not going anywhere so get used to him being a Fin.



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  2. phinzfan21

    phinzfan21 A True Fan

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    I got no issues with DT. Just stay healthy and protect the ball.
     
  3. Ed Norton

    Ed Norton Scout Team

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    No hate here but concussion issues already and I think I remember him putting a couple of balls on the ground as well. He had a few good games and he's shown some ability picking up some tough yards but I'm not expecting much.
     
  4. MarinoEqualsGod

    MarinoEqualsGod The man, the myth, the legend

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    One word: Fumbles.

    Also, nothing ever stands out about DT. He isn't terrible, but he isn't a great back either...he's just, there. When Lamar Miller was in the game this past season, I could feel a certain potential electricity for a big play. With DT, I've never felt that way in two years... I would be perfectly fine with Miller as a starter in the upcoming season. I can't say I would feel that way if DT was starting.
     
  5. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    Daniel Thomas had 5 fumbles
    Ridley has 5 fumbles.
    Murray has 4 fumbles.
    LeShoure has 3 fumbles.
    Hunter has 2 fumbles
    Ingram has 2 fumbles.

    DT is right there with all the other back on fumbles. 1 fumble every 57 touches.

    A couple of those fumbles were on hits that causes a fumble no matter who is carrying.
    He was knocked out on one of them.
     
  6. vega51

    vega51 Well-Known Member

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    Health and fumbles
     
  7. ANUFan

    ANUFan A True Fan Donator

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    Unfortunately for a team like ours compared to those other teams, OUR fumbles are MAGNIFIED! We cannot afford any T/O! Also for a "power back" I have yet to see the power!
     
  8. The Omen

    The Omen Well-Known Member

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    I think most peoples gripe with DT is that Ireland moved up to get him and he isn't setting the league on fire...

    I agree with Phinzfan21, no problem here... I also agree with MarionEqualsGod, DT really doesn't stand out, however sometimes a battling ram running back put in on goal line and short yardage aren't always supposed to stand out unless they have a ridiculous amount of TD's for the fantasy football heads out there.

    all that said, he does have 2 years left on his rookie contract, he should stay just based on that alone. But I really don't see him in any bigger role then he already has.
     
  9. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter Finheaven VIP

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    You say he's done well on a team with bad blocking but in two seasons he has 256 carries for 906 yards (3.5 ypc) and 4 rushing TDs. Behind that same line Reggie Bush (who everyone said couldn't run between the tackles...myself included) has 443 carries for 2072 yards (4.7 ypc) and 12 rushing TDs. Lamar Miller in his rookie season 51 carries for 250 yards (4.9 ypc) and 1 rushing TD. So if the blocking is bad how is it that two other running backs behind the same line can average more than a full yard per carry better than Thomas? 3.5 ypc is awful, the NFL league average is 4.1 ypc.
     
  10. SCLSU Mud Dogs

    SCLSU Mud Dogs foos-ball is the devil! Donator

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    Thomas has done nothing special thus far. I wouldn't call it hate, just the realization that he struggles to do the things well that he was praised for coming out of college.
     
  11. MarinoEqualsGod

    MarinoEqualsGod The man, the myth, the legend

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    And THAT, is DA TRUTH!!!
     
  12. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    That is not very good logic, When you are getting most of your carries when its 3rd and 1 or on the goal line you are not going to gain a high yard per carry.
     
  13. SCLSU Mud Dogs

    SCLSU Mud Dogs foos-ball is the devil! Donator

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    Show your proof that DT got most of his carries when it was those two scenarios. Calling a little BS on that one, sorry.
     
  14. MarinoEqualsGod

    MarinoEqualsGod The man, the myth, the legend

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    That's exactly my problem though. I don't want a short yardage back to be my primary starter. He has had a few opportunities to be the featured back due to injury or other reasons and he hasn't 'wowed' many people. He's a decent back, but not someone I would want to carry the load. As another poster said, let him finish his contract out. If he doesn't make improvements in the next two years, part ways with him...
     
  15. vega51

    vega51 Well-Known Member

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    I like him, but he gets injured a lot
     
  16. russianbear

    russianbear FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    He's sticking around until his contract expires anyway, and he is for the most part replaceable....no big issue with him as long as he keeps the ball off the turf. That's how someone in his position loses his job,
     
  17. insomnia411

    insomnia411 The world is yours

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    Lamar Miller has already shown me way more than DT in regards to pure talent and DT is the definition of run of the mill. Just nothing special whatsoever.
     
  18. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    DT had 91 carries on the year.

    Of those carries he rushed 11 times for 18 yards when down and distance was less than 2 yards.
    Additionally he had another 15 carries for 24 yards within the opponents 10 yard line.
    So 26 carries for 42 yards in situtations where you don't expect the average gain.

    That is 26 of 91 carries (28.5% of the time).
    Takeaway those carries and DT average goes from 3.6 up to 4.35 yards per carry

    By comparison Reggie Bush had 227 carries

    Of those carries he rushed 23 times for 85 yards when down and distance was less than 2 yards.
    Additionally he had another 7 carries for 14 yards within the opponents 10 yard line.
    So 30 carries for 99 yards in situtations where you don't expect the average gain.

    That is 30 of 227 carries (13.2% of the time).
    Takeaway those carries and RB average goes from 4.3 up to 4.5 yards per carry

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/9588/reggie-bush

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14056/daniel-thomas

    There is that good enough proof for you?
     
  19. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    DT is NOT our primary starter and no where in this post did I suggest that he should be. He's a good second back that can get some tuff yards when you need them. That's all.
    Like you said keep him around until his contract expires and then move on or resign if he improves.
     
  20. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter Finheaven VIP

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    4 rushing TDs on 256 carries...how many attempts does it take him to get in the end zone? How many of the 256 were near the goal line? Where is your logic coming from or are you just making stuff up?

    In the first game against the Jets Reggie got hurt and missed most of the game, right? Thomas had 19 carries for 69 yards...3.6 ypc. Those 19 carries weren't all goal line carries or would you like to make everyone believe they were. Against Cincy Reggie got pulled for fumbling, Thomas had 10 carries for 29 yards...were all of those at the goal line? In the second game against the Jets he had 15 carries for 42 yards...2.8 ypc.

    Are you really going to try and say that most of the 256 carries Thomas had were near the goal line when he only scored 4 TDs on the season...if that's true then he's a woefully ineffective goal line RB. Either way he's not very good.
     
  21. MarinoEqualsGod

    MarinoEqualsGod The man, the myth, the legend

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    Agreed.

    But lets say Reggie leaves via free agency this offseason, who do you want as your primary starter, DT, Miller, sign a free agent or draft someone new?
     
  22. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    Of those 256 carries, 22 were inside the opponest 10 yard line. 4 TD's in 22 attempts.

    And without Dt we don't win the Cincy game. I was there. he only had 29 yards but they were crucial yards when we were backed up against our own goal line late in the game.
    He helped move the ball out to close to mid field and then we punted. Cincy drove to long Fg range and missed. without those yards it was a sure 3 points for Cincy.
    Then at the end they would have only needed a FG to win instead of Td that they didn't get.
     
  23. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    I'd let Miller have a chance and keep DT as #2 and short yardage/goal line. Maybe look at reasonable free agents. But i would really like to see Reggie back.
     
  24. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    The reason people have a difficulty with Thomas, in my view, is that he is the embodiment of Ireland's draft philosophy, ie to go for low downside safe picks in the top of the draft. Worse still, Ireland put such a premium on him being a solid, low risk, starting player that he moved up for the guy.

    Then to top it off, the guy turns out to be not so safe after all. I feel for him, despite him being underwhelming, because its Jeff Ireland most of us are disappointed with, more so than Thomas.

    We owe Daniel Thomas a debt of gratitude, in that he is a lesson to Ireland that you can never be sure of a safe, cant-miss starter. I think Ireland took more risk on playmakers in the last draft (Tannehill, Miller, Egnew, Vernon) and hopefully will refine his style and do it better this time round. But his failed Thomas ploy was probably one of the factors that pushed him to be more aggressive last time out.
     
  25. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    Yeah, same thing with Ginn. Don't hate the player just because we picked him earlier than we should have.

    He is right were he should be with the running backs of the 2011 draft.
     
  26. Irishfinfan1

    Irishfinfan1 Well-Known Member

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    Thomas was a waste of a 2nd round pick, and a traded up one at that, that is why there is no love for Thomas. We could have had talent like that as a free agent, and this coming from and Ireland supporter.
     
  27. Mogwai

    Mogwai Seasoned Veteran

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    He's a relatively decent backup RB. 3.5 ypc. 4 TDs for a goal line back. 5 fumbles. Injured often. And vastly inferior production than our other runners. What exactly is there to love? That we moved up to take him over Demarco and Ridley is just ridiculous.
     
  28. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    Easy to say things like that but you better be ready to back them up.

    Here are the big free agent running backs from last year with salary and production compared to DT

    Green-Ellis to Cincy for 3 year $9M contract ($3M per) 1198 yards from scrimage
    Bush to Bears for 4 year $14M contract ($3.5M per) 494 yards from scrimage
    Tolbert to Carolina for 4 year $8.4M contract ($2.1M per) 451 yards from scrimage
    Hillis to KC for 1 year $3M contract ($3M per) 371 yards from scrimage
    Benson to GB for 1 year 825K contract (825K per) 345 yards from scrimage
    Grant to GB for 1 year 700K contract (700K per) 161 yards from scrimage

    DT drafted by Miami for 4 year 3.2M contract (800K per) Averages 567 yard from scrimage per year

    As you can see the Free Agent card very seldom works. The only free agent running back that did better than DT last year was Green Ellis.
    And Cincy is paying him 4 time what we are paying DT. The only backs with comparable contract are Grant and benson and there is no way they sign with us for the same price.
    Both gave the Packers discounts to be on possible Super Bowl team. So yeah you can replace him with a free agent and probably pay 3 to 4 times as much for the same or lesser production

    The number above give a good guideline about the value of Free agent running backs and should help set a price guideline for what to offer Reggie Bush this year.
     
  29. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    Ridley and Murray have 100 more touches than DT and both are on better offensive teams. Patriots #1, Cowboys #6, Dolphins 27th.

    Better teams, more chances and only slightly better production.
     
  30. Strangeworld

    Strangeworld Banned Hammered

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    Another in a long line of mediocre players Ireland has drafted.

    Next please
     
  31. ohiohurricane

    ohiohurricane Active Member

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    Wish he could stay healthy for a full season
     
  32. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    And which running back was he supposed to draft?

    As I have detailed in the Original post only 2 have done a whole lot more and they are on 2 of the better offensive teams.

    The hate for Ireland on this forum is over the top. Not saying I'm happy with him but.

    We lost our two main running backs (R&R), needed a back and got one that is performing like he should for where he was drafted.

    But ireland failed becuase he isn't the next Emmit Smith.

    I suppose all those other GM's are just as bad since they didn't do any better in the 2011 finding a great running back in the draft.
     
  33. Birdmond

    Birdmond FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I can't believe I'm reading a thread defending an injury prone, soft, fumbler who Jeff Ireland TRADED UP to get!
     
  34. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    You lost all credibilty with me when you said soft.
    DT is anything but soft. He runs into a wall without hesitation.

    Injury prone and fumbler maybe, but he's one tough dude.
     
  35. MRojas4

    MRojas4 The Cheese Connoisseur Finheaven VIP

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    DT just got a bad batch thrown on his plate.

    Think about it, most of the hate for DT is a result of what?

    1. We traded up and drafted him instead of Murray who has had a break out season. (Doesn't mean DT sucks)
    2. Most if not all of his fumbles have come at crucial moments in games.
    3. Injuries, Injuries, Injuries
    4. Called a "soft player", all those injuries make him think twice about sizing up a LB.

    Mix all those together and you have the result of why people think DT sucks.

    Hopefully he can put that all behind him and start fresh next season.
     
  36. Birdmond

    Birdmond FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    He's a former QB who doesn't run with authority. He's a puss.
     
  37. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    The 2 fumbles lost by DT this year were NOT magnified.

    The 1st came when we were getting our but kicked by Houston and Dt was actuially knocked out on the play.
    The 2nd came against the Jets in the 1st game. The D stopped the Jets and the fumble had no effect on the game.

    Big Deal.
     
  38. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    The 1st came when we were getting our butts kicked by Houston and Dt was actuially knocked out on the play.
    The 2nd came against the Jets in the 1st game. The D stopped the Jets and the fumble had no effect on the game.
    The 3rd was recovered by the Dolphins.

    What season did you guys watch?

    ---------- Post added at 04:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:27 PM ----------

    If anyone runs like a puss on the team its Reggie Bush. Dancing around if there is any contact in the hole.
    DT runs into it. He rarely breaks out the other side but he runs into the wall like a man.
     
  39. Birdmond

    Birdmond FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I agree. Bush and Thomas run like *******. I want them both gone.
     
  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Reggie Bush in 2011 & 2012 took 14 carries for 64 yards on 3rd/4th & 1-2 yards to go. He took 18 carries for 26 yards inside the opponent's 10 yard line. Together that's 32 carries for 90 yards (2.8 YPC). Exclude those and he gained 1982 yards on 411 carries (4.8 YPC).

    Lamar Miller in 2012 took 1 carry for 1 yard in these situations, which means excluding them he ran 50 times for 249 yards (5.0 YPC).

    Daniel Thomas in 2011 & 2012 took 42 carries for 50 yards (1.2 YPC) in these situations. Excluding them he ran 214 times for 856 yards (4.0 YPC).

    So really the point remains that Daniel Thomas did SIGNIFICANTLY worse than both Reggie Bush and Lamar Miller behind the same offensive line.

    I happen to know because I've done this exercise before across the league that a number of 5.0 yards per carry is a respectable number when you exclude 3rd/4th & Short, and Tight Red carries. Most backs around the league hover around that mark. A mark of 4.0 yards per carry in that measure is exceptionally low.

    And the other thing to note is his lack of success ON those short yardage plays. Reggie Bush gained over 3 yards per carry in those short yardage situations. Daniel Thomas gained 1 yard. How many Daniel Thomas goal line plays have we seen where he was stuffed without the touchdown? How many short yardage plays stuffed without the 1st down? This is supposed to be his specialty, and he's not very good at it.

    I happen to do a lot of statistical work on short yardage and Goal to Go situations. It's one of the few stats that actually matter to me a little bit. If you're getting a carry in Goal to Go, how often do you convert that to a touchdown? Because it's one of the few stats that matters to me I have a really good idea of what percentages are "good", what percentages are downright "ridiculous", what are "average" and what is "bad".

    Daniel Thomas in his young career has taken 25 carries inside the 10 yard line on Goal to Go type situations and he's converted 4 touchdowns (16%). That's bad. Last year when he took 10 carries in Goal to Go and didn't score a single touchdown, that was the first time I'd ever seen that. I'd seen tailbacks fail to convert touchdowns in the tight red area but never seen them take as many as 10 carries in there in a season and fail to convert even a single one of them.

    You add onto these issues the fact that he's fumble prone (deny it all you like, a fumble for every 50 carries is on the bad side of the spectrum, any more often than that and guys lose their jobs and get shoved out of the league), and then the fact he can't stay healthy and his own teammates have accused him of not taking care of his body...and maybe you don't know why people like me criticize Daniel Thomas, but I sure as hell don't know why anyone is really defending the guy, either.

    The Dolphins have Lamar Miller, they're thinking of re-signing Reggie Bush, and they're doing vetting work on tailbacks (this I know). Even before he got injured (again) this year, Daniel Thomas had all of 3 touches in the San Francisco and Jacksonville games while Reggie Bush and Lamar Miller combined for 51 touches.

    Read the writing on the wall. It ain't good.

    ---------- Post added at 04:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:33 PM ----------

    Toughness is not in question. Ability to stay on his feet through contact is most definitely in question and has been since college.
     

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