Phinphanatic: Is Weeden better than Tannehill?

[jim1]

It’s no secret that the Miami Dolphins will select a quarterback in the draft next month. Right now, all signs are pointing towards Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. New Dolphins’ offensive coordinator, Mike Sherman, was his college coach so it’s only logical to assume Tannehill is their guy. By the time Miami is on the clock with their eighth pick, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will be off the board and the Dolphins will be going after the “third” best quarterback in the 2012 draft. But, is Oklahoma State’s QB Brandon Weeden better than Tannehill?

Statistically, Weeden had arguably the best season than any quarterback coming out of this draft. And yes, that includes the golden boy Andrew Luck. Many will argue that having an NFL caliber receiver as Justin Blackmon will help pad anyone’s stats. Regardless, Weeden did his job completing 72.3% of his passes for 4,727 yards and 37 touchdowns. His passer rating was an amazing 159.8 for the year. Even more impressive, Weeden led his Cowboys to a 12 and 1 record, beating good teams with “elite” college quarterbacks as Landry Jones, RGIII, Luck, AND Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill had a solid senior year as well. To give you a quick comparison, Tannehill completed 61.6% of his passes for 3,744 yards and 29 touchdowns. He posted a 133.2 passer rating. However, you can see he was clearly outmatched by Weeden. Not to mention Tannehill led his Aggies to a mediocre 7 and 6 record.

Fans and the so called scouting “experts” have argued that Weeden is a better quarterback than Tannehill. Considering what Weeden was able to do in his senior year leading his Cowboys to a 41 to 38 victory over Luck’s Stanford Cardinals in an overtime thriller in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, it’s hard to argue against that. Whether you like Weeden or not, you can’t deny he had a better senior year than Tannehill.

The ONLY factor keeping Weeden from becoming a top five pick is his age. Unfortunately at 28 years old, most NFL teams consider him a grandpa. Since it usually takes at least two to three years for a quarterback to develop, Weeden’s shelf life in the NFL is not very long. For this reason, many teams are hesitant to select him.
In my opinion, I believe Miami will select Tannehill because of his relationship with Sherman. In an article I wrote earlier this week, I claimed that since the very beginning, it has been Sherman pounding his fists at the kitchen table, lobbying for Tannehill to be their future quarterback. After all, he is only 23 years old with a ton of potential, athleticism, and has a high ceiling.

But should the Dolphins consider Weeden instead? Jeff Ireland and the front office have already made some surprising, head scratching moves thus far. When it comes to the draft, anything is possible with this group. Heck, they may just surprise us all and make it an Oklahoma State reunion down in South Beach by selecting Justin Blackmon with their first round pick and Weeden with their second. When it comes to Ireland, you can expect the unexpected.

http://phinphanatic.com/2012/03/23/is-weeden-better-than-tannehill/

 

[Pinkboy]

Tannehill reminds me too much of Gabbert. Those QB's with piss poor pocket recognition and feel/awareness/instincts never amount to anything in the NFL

both QB's jumped into 1st round territory a month or 2 before the draft when everyone had them as 3rd and 4th rounders during the end of the college season,

meh. Don't care for such projects in the 1st. Give me a real quarterback, not a project and wishful thinking on crappy pocket awareness and piss poor instincts to where it destroys the rest of his game at the next level ( see Gabbert last year and Henne's crappy career, same garbage)

If Cam Newton didn't have such incredible pocket awareness he wouldn't have been half the QB he was last year. All the elements of pocket awareness, and there are quite a few of them, should INSTANTLY be 50% of everyone's grade on a young QB. They either have it naturally or they don't. Stay the hell away if they don't have it. All the greats had it early - from rodgers, manning, brady, montana, young, marino, elway , and all the rest. They all had amazing feel in the pocket. Pocket geniuses.

It's ALWAYS the common denominator with the great ones. Period

Everything that happens before the throw is just as important (if not more important) as after the throw. You can have the best arm ever, great ball placement and anticipation of receivers, and all that fluffy stuff people look for. But if you don't have everything before the throw, none of it matters and you won't amount to jack in the NFL - see Jeff George, Ryan Leaf, and Jamarcus Russell -- all guys with piss poor pocket awareness and feel.

stay the fukk away from crappy pocket awareness/feel guys like tannehill. He will never be anything in this league, just like Gabbert and john Beck and hundreds of others that came out of college and couldn't even get to 1st base in the NFL because of it

 

[Roman529]

Weeden is in his late 20's, and unless Philbin is willing to put him in to start within the next year or two, I would hesitate on taking him. I would just trade down and get the best non-QB's this year, and then go for QB next year. Let's see what Moore can do for a full season. I don't think anyone other than Luck/RG3 will be better than Moore next year, so I think we should just pass on a QB in the upcoming draft....no pun intended.

 

[Aqua and Orange]

Weeden is currently better than Tannehill...there is no debate about that...but the thing everyone is banking on with Tannehill is his future. The intrinsic problem with comparing these two right now is that we are near (notice I said "near" and not "at) the ceiling of where Weeden will be and a decent ways away from seeing the QB Tannehill will develop into.

My honest opinion? I think with proper coaching, Tannehill could be where Weeden is right now in two years, if not surpassing it. They both have rifle arms, good instincts, and a promising repertoire of tools for any NFL team to take advantage of. I believe both will be a success in the NFL.

So where do the Dolphins come in? It boils down to two things:

1) What is Mike Sherman's comfort level with Tannehill? One of the most understated things with the makeup of this team is that Philbin was a student of Sherman, and as a result trusts him wholeheartedly. This decision will squarely fall on the shoulders of Sherman, and that will make Tannehill a cut and dry decision either worthy of trading up for or even refusing to touch with a ten foot pole. While many point to Sherman's coaching of Tannehill as a plus, also please keep in mind that Sherman was fired from his job and turned to Tannehill out of necessity. This is hardly a scenario where a coach picked his player and rode him to glory.

2) How long does Philbin believe it takes a QB to grow into and master his system? Philbin famously said that "anyone who could count to four" could play in the Packer offense he set up. If this offense is truly that easy to grasp, it makes a player like Weeden much more attractive as the Dolphins could plug him in rather quickly and tweak the footwork issues that are giving him issues. This Dolphins team would suddenly seem a little more "with it" as an organization if their plan was to target Weeden, put him in a simple offense he could step into quickly, and truly make it a THREE QB competition.

With all of this in mind...I can't believe I am going to say this...but I FULLY expect the Dolphins to pass on Tannehill if he is there at 8, to draft WR or DE with that pick, and then trade up slightly in the 2nd to get Weeden. I personally would prefer Tannehill in the long term, but Weeden makes a whole lot of sense for this team the way it is presently composed.

 

[AceofSpades]

I personally would prefer Tannehill in the long term

I agree, and on that basis come to the opposite conclusion on the Tannehill vs. Weeden debate. The Dolphins are not a playoff team in the short term, and the Marshall trade makes us worse. So while we are trying to get better every year, shouldn't we be planning for the long haul anyway? Shouldn't we draft the guy with the higher ceiling who may be able to turn us into a playoff team a few years from now rather than a guy who can make a mediocre team into an average one?

Another poster in this thread made the point that Weeden is essentially a grandpa as far as NFL teams are concerned, and I agree. If one believes that both Weeden and Tannehill will succeed in the NFL, but Tannehill has a higher ceiling and can play for the team longer, shouldn't the Dolphins find Tannehill a more attractive proposition?

I think that most of what you say makes a lot of sense, including your point that DE or WR may present a better value for the Dolphins at that point in the draft than QB. Coples and Kendall Wright or Floyd may be worth that kind of pick. As much as Dolphin fans don't want to hear it, Riley Reiff also seems like a good value.

But the Dolphins have been trying to find "good values" at the QB position for years - from Culpepper to Feeley to Beck to Henne - and those band-aids haven't gotten us very far. If we assume that the Dolphins will take either Tannehill or Weeden in this year's draft - and I along with myriad other Dolphin fans will probably riot if they don't - I vote for Tannehill over Weeden. If we're going to strike out, let's at least go down swinging.

 

[jim1]

I agree, and on that basis come to the opposite conclusion on the Tannehill vs. Weeden debate. The Dolphins are not a playoff team in the short term, and the Marshall trade makes us worse. So while we are trying to get better every year, shouldn't we be planning for the long haul anyway? Shouldn't we draft the guy with the higher ceiling who may be able to turn us into a playoff team a few years from now rather than a guy who can make a mediocre team into an average one?

Another poster in this thread made the point that Weeden is essentially a grandpa as far as NFL teams are concerned, and I agree. If one believes that both Weeden and Tannehill will succeed in the NFL, but Tannehill has a higher ceiling and can play for the team longer, shouldn't the Dolphins find Tannehill a more attractive proposition?

I think that most of what you say makes a lot of sense, including your point that DE or WR may present a better value for the Dolphins at that point in the draft than QB. Coples and Kendall Wright or Floyd may be worth that kind of pick. As much as Dolphin fans don't want to hear it, Riley Reiff also seems like a good value.

But the Dolphins have been trying to find "good values" at the QB position for years - from Culpepper to Feeley to Beck to Henne - and those band-aids haven't gotten us very far. If we assume that the Dolphins will take either Tannehill or Weeden in this year's draft - and I along with myriad other Dolphin fans will probably riot if they don't - I vote for Tannehill over Weeden. If we're going to strike out, let's at least go down swinging.

The problem is this-Ryan Tannnehill isn't all that good. Weeden is- and I'll point this out for about the 20th time: Weeden will turn 36 during his eighth NFL year. That isn't really all that bad- Ireland should package a 3rd or 4th rd pick, slide up to near the top of the 2nd round and secure Weeden. Garrard can be dumped after a year if he doesn't work out, and the bottom line is that Weeden is an ELITE talent in this draft, and a QB for that matter, and Jeff Ireland should grab his balls, make a move and take him.

 

[LANGER72]

If I had to chose between the two, I would select Weeden. He is more mature, physically and mentally, and ready to play now.
If he plays for 6-8 years and gets us to the playoffs / Super Bowl, I will take that.
We can look for another guy to follow in his footsteps down the line.

 

[Zounds]

No doubt Weeden is better than Tannehill right now, but Tannehill will need at least 2 years imo to become a decent NFL QB, if he can become one. I think Weeden is a better player right now, and he is better value at a 2nd round pick, so I'm on the Weeden bandwagon.

 

[state06]

Its funny someone said Tannehill reminds them of Gabbert, considering Gabbert and Weeden both played in spread offenses and is one of the reasons why Gabbert is failing. Tannehill would be in a very similar offense to the one he played in under Sherman (his old HC, now our OC). He is very good at escaping pressure and throwing on the run. He does need to learn to put a little more touch on the ball, but if Sherman wants him and believes in him, we will make a play on him.

there are many questions surrounding Weeden outside of his age.

Are we looking for a new Starter for this season? How long will it take for Weeden to learn the new O? Can he produce outside of the spread without college football's best WR? Does Sherman think he can take Tannehill and make him a franchise QB? How much did Weeden benefit playing against kids 6-8 years younger than him? The reason he moved on to football is because of a shoulder injury he received playing baseball, could this become an issue?

I am anxious to see how Tannehill performs at his pro day before i'm willing to say we should take him at 8

 

[gregorygrant83]

If you look back at the 2006 draft, about 2/3 of the players drafted are no longer with their original team. So why make a big issue about Weeden's age and if he can play past 34? If Miami could draft him in round 2 and get 6 years out of him they will be way ahead of the curve. I would be more comfortable with Weeden in round 2 than Tannehill at the 8th overall pick.

 

[TheWalrus]

Tannehill reminds me too much of Gabbert. Those QB's with piss poor pocket recognition and feel/awareness/instincts never amount to anything in the NFL

both QB's jumped into 1st round territory a month or 2 before the draft when everyone had them as 3rd and 4th rounders during the end of the college season,

meh. Don't care for such projects in the 1st. Give me a real quarterback, not a project and wishful thinking on crappy pocket awareness and piss poor instincts to where it destroys the rest of his game at the next level ( see Gabbert last year and Henne's crappy career, same garbage)

If Cam Newton didn't have such incredible pocket awareness he wouldn't have been half the QB he was last year. All the elements of pocket awareness, and there are quite a few of them, should INSTANTLY be 50% of everyone's grade on a young QB. They either have it naturally or they don't. Stay the hell away if they don't have it. All the greats had it early - from rodgers, manning, brady, montana, young, marino, elway , and all the rest. They all had amazing feel in the pocket. Pocket geniuses.

It's ALWAYS the common denominator with the great ones. Period

Everything that happens before the throw is just as important (if not more important) as after the throw. You can have the best arm ever, great ball placement and anticipation of receivers, and all that fluffy stuff people look for. But if you don't have everything before the throw, none of it matters and you won't amount to jack in the NFL - see Jeff George, Ryan Leaf, and Jamarcus Russell -- all guys with piss poor pocket awareness and feel.

stay the fukk away from crappy pocket awareness/feel guys like tannehill. He will never be anything in this league, just like Gabbert and john Beck and hundreds of others that came out of college and couldn't even get to 1st base in the NFL because of it

There are plenty of reasons to doubt Tannehill and there is the old debate about "value," but criticizing his pocket awareness is nothing short of bizarre. Beyond his raw speed it's probably the very best part of his game. With all due respect, I think you need to go back and look at more film.

 

[hoops]

i agree with walrus tannehills pocket awareness stands out...he feels pressure also

 

[Butterfrog 2.0]

There isn't a doubt in my mind that Weeden is a better QB than Tannehill. If Weeden was 23 years old he'd be talked about in the same sentences as Luck and RG3. He has top 10 talent but because of his age he will have a short shelf life and that is the only thing droping him out of the 1st round and behind a QB like Tannehill who isn't nearly as good as Weeden is.

 

[HarryBagpipe]

Ive mentioned this before. And maybe im looking at this the wrong way but Tannehill is going to be 24 when the season starts and by almost everybodys account will need a couple of years before he is ready to play. At which time he will be 26 or older depending on how long he takes to evolve and mature as a player. Brandon Weeden will be 28 when the season starts. Besides Andrew Luck is the most NFL ready player and has as good a skill set as a legitimate top 10 pick should have.

So with only but a two year difference in terms of expected age of NFL starting, why wouldnt it be more reasonable to go with the guy who is already a top 10 talent in terms of skill and readiness instead of reaching for a guy who a number of weeks ago was seen as a mid 2nd round pick and is only soaring up the charts due to qb starved teams being desperate. If Weeden was Tannehill's age there wouldnt be a question of who to pick. Weeden would almost assuredly be a top 10 pick(maybe top 5) and would be seen as the answer to our qb woes.

So it seems to be that if as projected, there would only be a 2 or 3 year difference in terms of when they would be starting, why not go with the far superior prospect. Im not advocating taking Weeden at 8. I would much rather trade down if possible and grab some extra picks. Weeden has an excellent deep ball, sees the field well and has an excellent arm. Hes not near the athlete Tannehill is though. Tannehill seems to be very innaccurate at the deep ball and tends to lock on recievers. I know he can be taught out of that habit but thats a flaw that just worries me for some reason.

As i said, i might be looking at this wrong but it seems at least something to ponder to me. Something about reaching for Tannehill at 8 doesnt rest well with me. CK mentioned one thing that i feel is a valid point. People wont think twice about about drafting a RB in the first round even though their shelf life is expected to be around 7-8 years. Hell, we drafted Ronnie Brown at 2 and i dont think he saw his 30th birtday with us. Why is it a stretch to grab a qb who would have a similar shelf life.

Im definitely no draft guru and there a many posters here who know much more than me about evaluating qb play, but if we are hoping Tannehill gets to where Weeden is now in a couple of years(which may or may not happen), why not just grab Weeden instead.