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Pre-Combine Board

With RB's and WR's, I want to see them run fast, show burst in the 10 and jumps, or show really good agility for their size. I think it's a little similar for LB, but raw speed, relative to their size, is more important for them, with the way teams spread the field.

I agree about pass rushers and DB's. Pass rushers and CB's are typically the best athletes on the field. With Safeties, I think it's more similar to RB and WR. They need to be decent all-around athletes and to have a good trait or two, but anticipation and instincts seem to go further. Anything over 4.60 is a red flag/knock, though.

Chubb is a great call. I agree that if he shows burst like he did in high school, top-50 is on the table. I always loved his game. I made a list this morning, and I didn't focus as much on RB or WR, but of those positions, I also really want to see Penny, Freeman, Kelly, Johnson, Walton (though, I won't hold a bad performance against him), and Adams at RB, and I want to see Sutton, Gallup, Moore, Ishmael, and Wilson at WR. I left of Ronald Jones II, because I feel confident that he'll test well. This is the list I made earlier (not concerned with Bradley Chubb):

OT

Connor Williams
Jamarco Jones
Orlando Brown
Chukwuma Okorafor

Pass-rush OLB

Harold Landry
Marcus Davenport
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi
Dorance Armstrong
Josh Sweat
Obo Okoronkwo
Uchenna Nwosu

Stand-up LB

Roquan Smith
Tremaine Edmunds
Leighton Vander Esch
Malik Jefferson
Christian Sam

CB

Derwin James
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Carlton Davis
Isaiah Oliver
Jordan Thomas
Jaire Alexander
Darius Phillips
Mike Hughes
Denzel Ward
DJ Reed
Duke Dawson
MJ Stewart
Jalen Davis
Arrion Springs


Josh Sweat and Tremaine Edmunds are going to light it up. Those two defenders are going to leave the combine the biggest winners. Along with Malik Jefferson.

As usual, tape be damned when it comes to CB's. Some are going to leave with a big boost based off their 40 yard dash and be over drafted.

I think Skai Moore has an important week ahead of him too in terms of his neck. I think he's an underrated linebacker.
 
Jewell, Kiser, and Sam all need to run well and show fluidity to avoid the '2 down' label. Landry needs to blow it up to make people forget about last season. Little guys like Baker and O'Daniel need to run real well to justify their size and show teams they have the speed to cover. And I'd like to be proven wrong about Vander Esch because I'm just underwhelmed overall.

Josh Jackson and Carlton Davis - 2 players I'm pretty confident in succeeding at the next level - would be immensely helped by strong combine performances. I don't see either getting out of the 2nd but the top 25 is looking pretty solid with good showings.

The risers have to be looked at pretty closely too. Davenport and Edmunds (who I've always liked but thought he'd be there in the 2nd or maybe even 3rd) fit the bill this year for me. I gotta say I did not love Jordan Willis as a prospect but his combine blew me away. That kind of thing is always intriguing.

Will be interesting to see how Vea moves at that size. Looks pretty nimble for a big man. People are all over the place on him.

I'm with J that I also love Elliott. I almost want him to stumble a little so he can fall to us in the 2nd ... will make up for the Saints grabbing Williams last year before we had the chance.

Measurements are pretty big too. ND listed Te'o at like 6'3" 255. Yeah, not so much.


Kiser nor Sam will run well. Jewell is better than both.

Jerome Baker will test really well. O'Daniel already dominated at the Senior Bowl. He'll test decent, which is all he needs.

Josh Jackson needs to add some upper body strength.

Vea is one of those rare size/athleticism guys, but this underclassman DT class is full of those at the top with Payne and Taven Bryan.

I think Vea tends to be a little overrated in terms of the impact he's going to have at the next level initially. He's in that Phil Taylor, Danny Shelton, Dontari Poe class. We've seen it before.
 
Josh Sweat and Tremaine Edmunds are going to light it up. Those two defenders are going to leave the combine the biggest winners. Along with Malik Jefferson.

As usual, tape be damned when it comes to CB's. Some are going to leave with a big boost based off their 40 yard dash and be over drafted.

I think Skai Moore has an important week ahead of him too in terms of his neck. I think he's an underrated linebacker.

I agree, and i should note that I only left off Holton Hill because of all the suspensions. If not for the off-field, I'd probably have him between Fitzpatrick and Davis. Tre'Davious White is one of the primary inspirations for splitting up the CB's. I underrated him, because he didn't fit the mold of a guy who mans-up with star WR's (like a Marshon Lattimore). But, his versatility, instincts, physicality, and ball skills made him a star CB as a rookie in Buffalo. I remember that you had a 1st Round grade on White. For the record, I still liked him - had him in the 50s - but I was too focused on his limitations, rather than how good he can be in the right spot.

For teams that run a lot of Cover 2, Quarters, and Cover 3, I think it's almost more like evaluating a Safety than a CB. You're placing more emphasis on how the player breaks on the ball, how he anticipates routes, and how physical he is at the catch point. For teams that ask their CB's to play a lot of man coverage, particularly without a lot of help, I think the 40, 3-cone, and jumps give a good indication of whether the guy has the basic tools to keep up with NFL WR's. But Josh Norman and Trumaine Johnson both ran in the 4.6's at the Combine. Both excel at playing zone and press-man with help over the top, and in the right situation, both make plays on the ball and make critical tackles. I don't think that just because someone is super athletic, it guarantees they'll be a great man-cover CB. We all remember Justin Gilbert (who I liked way too much).
 
Kiser nor Sam will run well. Jewell is better than both.

Jerome Baker will test really well. O'Daniel already dominated at the Senior Bowl. He'll test decent, which is all he needs.

Josh Jackson needs to add some upper body strength.

Vea is one of those rare size/athleticism guys, but this underclassman DT class is full of those at the top with Payne and Taven Bryan.

I think Vea tends to be a little overrated in terms of the impact he's going to have at the next level initially. He's in that Phil Taylor, Danny Shelton, Dontari Poe class. We've seen it before.

I can see Sam running slow. I'm having a hard time figuring out his speed. He ran a 4.74 at 206 coming out of high school. Draft Scout has him at 4.81, and I've seen other people suggest that speed is a strength and that he'll run in the 4.6's. If he does run slow, he'll drop.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/combine/_/id/137903/christian-sam

Agree on Vea. I don't think he affects the pass enough to consider early.
 
Great work.

I still disagree on the tight ends. None of them will likely get drafted in the first round, but there are a few likely to get drafted in the second round.

And of that group, if you look at Hayden Hurst, I think you'll like what you see. As an athlete, he wins a lot of his matchups, and he was often punished with pedestrian numbers because of QB play in his offense. A lot of his alignments also seemed similar to what Miami does with tight ends. He's not the best blocker, but he at least gives effort and often does his job in that regard. He'll be 25 to start the 2018 season, which IMO is his only knock.

Troy Fumagalli is another guy I don't think gets enough credit as both a blocker and receiver. He's not a burner by any means, but he's a reliable pass-catching target, can move the sticks, and is strong enough to hold his own as a blocker.

Then you breach into the Goedert/Gisecki territory, who are likely great receivers at the next level with struggles as blockers. Both players IMO can win matchups in the passing game.

Mark Andrews I'm so-so on. He had great production in college but I don't know if he has the athletic ability to be a similar type of player in the NFL.

I think you're discounting the tight ends a little bit. If I had to guess, once you look at them more extensively, there will be a couple you have in the second round.

I'd love to hear your opinion on them once you get there.
 
Great work.

I still disagree on the tight ends. None of them will likely get drafted in the first round, but there are a few likely to get drafted in the second round.

And of that group, if you look at Hayden Hurst, I think you'll like what you see. As an athlete, he wins a lot of his matchups, and he was often punished with pedestrian numbers because of QB play in his offense. A lot of his alignments also seemed similar to what Miami does with tight ends. He's not the best blocker, but he at least gives effort and often does his job in that regard. He'll be 25 to start the 2018 season, which IMO is his only knock.

Troy Fumagalli is another guy I don't think gets enough credit as both a blocker and receiver. He's not a burner by any means, but he's a reliable pass-catching target, can move the sticks, and is strong enough to hold his own as a blocker.

Then you breach into the Goedert/Gisecki territory, who are likely great receivers at the next level with struggles as blockers. Both players IMO can win matchups in the passing game.

Mark Andrews I'm so-so on. He had great production in college but I don't know if he has the athletic ability to be a similar type of player in the NFL.

I think you're discounting the tight ends a little bit. If I had to guess, once you look at them more extensively, there will be a couple you have in the second round.

I'd love to hear your opinion on them once you get there.


I'm with him. The TEs this year leave more than a little to be desired and will be over drafted due to this lackluster class. Not a single one of them is a clean prospect and I can't wait for what I can only assume to be awful combine numbers after watching them play.

Last year was the time to draft a TE. 1st round was golden. We chose poorly.
 
I see a bunch of receiving TE's (not many proficient blockers), who lack the athleticism to cause significant matchup problems. We'll see how they run and test, though. Two of the best are Breneman and Hurst, but Breneman has serious medical concerns, and Hurst's age is well documented. Giesecke is my favorite to test well. Andrews should do OK. But, I'm not loving anyone enough to look TE on Day 2. We'll see.
 
You have Vita Vea way too low. Daniel Jeremiah had him as his 9th best player. 3rd round is criminal.
 
Why do you think he should be higher?

he's closer to Ngata than Shelton. and hell even if he was another Shelton or Poe (IMO he's a better prospect than both) they went in the top half of the 1st round anyway. He moves about as well as any 340 lb player I've ever seen.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-is-vita-vea-the-next-haloti-ngatav

This past season, Vea racked up three sacks, eight QB hits and 28 hurries on his 273 pass-rush snaps and his pass-rushing productivity rating of 11.0 ranks No. 3 among all FBS draft-eligible defensive tackles.
 
he's closer to Ngata than Shelton. and hell even if he was another Shelton or Poe (IMO he's a better prospect than both) they went in the top half of the 1st round anyway. He moves about as well as any 340 lb player I've ever seen.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-is-vita-vea-the-next-haloti-ngatav

This past season, Vea racked up three sacks, eight QB hits and 28 hurries on his 273 pass-rush snaps and his pass-rushing productivity rating of 11.0 ranks No. 3 among all FBS draft-eligible defensive tackles.

They went in the top half and did not return value. I don't see Vea affecting the pass enough to warrant a premium pick. Pressure numbers are dubious, and the DT's that make plays in the NFL made plays in college. You can find guys to occupy blockers and play the run for relatively cheap.
 
I don't think I can agree with the idea of Vita Vea being comparable to Phil Taylor, Danny Shelton, or Dontari Poe.

The problem is, he's an amalgam of the three. And that's different than any of the individuals. Dontari Poe was an athletic dynamo, truly a one in a million type, but wasn't a very strong football player or defensive tackle when he came out. He wasn't brutal or good with his hands. He was on the ground a whole lot. On the other hand, Phil Taylor and Danny Shelton were those things, had strong tape, but push came to shove they weren't special athletes. Shelton and Vea aren't even on the same spectrum athletically. Shelton ran a 5.6 and Vea has had his over/under set at 4.90 (for good reason, if you've watched enough of his tape).

The reason I have Vita Vea high is because he's brutal enough to fold big strong people over physically, while also having that ridiculous mobility which can create problems as you try and get the ball out to the perimeter. I think maybe we're a little too caught up in rigid definitions of defensive tackle worth if we need them all to have the pass rush abilities of Geno Atkins or Aaron Donald or else they're worthless.

In this day and age, as defensive tackle snaps are disappearing in favor of defensive back snaps, condensing to fewer players in the rotation, you should probably see defensive tackle valuations barbell, as it no longer pays to fill the position with a whole lot of above average bodies. You're going to have an alpha at that position, and just how good and how versatile that alpha is, will make a strong difference.

Linebackers have been disappearing from the NFL for a long time. The middle linebacker position is on life support compared to what it used to be. And yet guys like Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner are more valuable than ever, because they go beyond just being able to say, "I have a guy" at the position.
 
he's closer to Ngata than Shelton. and hell even if he was another Shelton or Poe (IMO he's a better prospect than both) they went in the top half of the 1st round anyway. He moves about as well as any 340 lb player I've ever seen.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-is-vita-vea-the-next-haloti-ngatav

This past season, Vea racked up three sacks, eight QB hits and 28 hurries on his 273 pass-rush snaps and his pass-rushing productivity rating of 11.0 ranks No. 3 among all FBS draft-eligible defensive tackles.

He's not quite Haloti Ngata. Dexter Lawrence is a kid that's closer to Ngata territory than Vea. He'd be a top 10 pick right now if he were eligible.

Tell you what, I'd bet you and Daniel Jeremiah that Payne, Taven Bryan and Harrison Phillips are all 3 better than Vea at the next level in terms of affecting the passer. I'd take that bet in a heartbeat.
 
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