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Pre-Combine Board

Is size the reason your so low on Denzel ward? It's not ideal but I wouldn't wanna miss out on a player like him due to a stereotype, the dude can ball. His combine likely to be top notch too. Awesome input btw
 
I'm just going to put this out there and I think it's OK to disagree on these things but it's worth looking at and knowing..

Looking at the pass rush productivity of Vita Vea, Harrison Phillips, Taven Bryan, and Da'Ron Payne from 2015 to 2017, you have the following pressure percentages:

Vita Vea: 13.33%
Taven Bryan: 12.21%
Harrison Phillips: 8.68%
Da'Ron Payne: 7.18%.

Worth noting that of the four players, only Da'Ron Payne saw a significant positive jump in pass rush efficiency in his final season. His pressure percentages were 6.84% and 5.59% in 2015 and 2016, but jumped to 8.53% in 2017.

The other three all had pressure percentages that were lower in 2017 than what they achieved in 2016. In the cases of Vita Vea and Taven Bryan, those pressure percentages were slightly lower. In the case of Harrison Phillips the pressure percentage went from 9.18% to 8.14% which is a more sizable jump.

Vita Vea has amassed 80 pressures on 600 pass rush snaps during the three years. Taven Bryan has amassed 68 pressures on 557 pass rush snaps during that span.

The only defensive tackles with better pass rush productivity than Vita Vea in 2017 were Maurice Hurst and Breeland Speaks.
 
Over the years I've always found run stop efficiency to be an intriguing signal. Run stops are tackles where the defensive player is able to stop the runner for a "failure", the criteria of which will depend on down and distance but is easily formulated.

Harrison Phillips, as you might expect watching him on film, and as seems to be typical of these Stanford guys...he has a very high run stop percentage. He amassed 46 "stops" on 347 run snaps (13.3%). This is the best among all defensive tackle prospects.

Deadrin Senat of South Florida and Julian Taylor of Temple come next.

But then comes Vita Vea of Washington (#4 of 148), having produced 29 "stops" on 239 run snaps.

Maurice Hurst ranks highly (#11 of 148) with 31 "stops" on 298 run snaps.

Da'Ron Payne also ranks relatively highly (#18 of 148) with 27 "stops" on 295 run snaps.

Taven Bryan is the one that comes off looking a bit one-dimensional, though still respectable in the run game, with a #52 of 148 ranking, 18 "stops" on 272 run snaps. He's got a fair amount of versatility though as he can be used outside.
 
ckparrothead said:
Over the years I've always found run stop efficiency to be an intriguing signal. Run stops are tackles where the defensive player is able to stop the runner for a "failure", the criteria of which will depend on down and distance but is easily formulated.

Harrison Phillips, as you might expect watching him on film, and as seems to be typical of these Stanford guys...he has a very high run stop percentage. He amassed 46 "stops" on 347 run snaps (13.3%). This is the best among all defensive tackle prospects.

Deadrin Senat of South Florida and Julian Taylor of Temple come next.

But then comes Vita Vea of Washington (#4 of 148), having produced 29 "stops" on 239 run snaps.

Maurice Hurst ranks highly (#11 of 148) with 31 "stops" on 298 run snaps.

Da'Ron Payne also ranks relatively highly (#18 of 148) with 27 "stops" on 295 run snaps.

Taven Bryan is the one that comes off looking a bit one-dimensional, though still respectable in the run game, with a #52 of 148 ranking, 18 "stops" on 272 run snaps. He's got a fair amount of versatility though as he can be used outside.
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I have Deadrin Senat as a sleeper in the draft. I think he can become a quality defensive lineman in the NFL.
 
Who is the fastest player in this draft? Last year it was Ross who was overdrafted because of it
 
I just don't see Vea as a DT who stays on the field on 3rd Down in the NFL. Washington does a good job of creating pressure with stunts and games, but a lot of smart people disagree with me (CK and lot of other very good draft analysts). I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong, but I don't like him where he'll go.



If you Twitter, I have the board posted there as well.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
I just don't see Vea as a DT who stays on the field on 3rd Down in the NFL. Washington does a good job of creating pressure with stunts and games, but a lot of smart people disagree with me (CK and lot of other very good draft analysts). I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong, but I don't like him where he'll go.



If you Twitter, I have the board posted there as well.
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I see his effectiveness on stunts and games as part of what translates so well and makes him valuable. Slow guys can't do that stuff. Danny Shelton can't do that stuff. Phil Taylor can't do that stuff. But it's a really nice way to create pressure in the NFL and keep QBs on an egg timer.
 
ckparrothead said:
I'm just going to put this out there and I think it's OK to disagree on these things but it's worth looking at and knowing..

Looking at the pass rush productivity of Vita Vea, Harrison Phillips, Taven Bryan, and Da'Ron Payne from 2015 to 2017, you have the following pressure percentages:

Vita Vea: 13.33%
Taven Bryan: 12.21%
Harrison Phillips: 8.68%
Da'Ron Payne: 7.18%.

Worth noting that of the four players, only Da'Ron Payne saw a significant positive jump in pass rush efficiency in his final season. His pressure percentages were 6.84% and 5.59% in 2015 and 2016, but jumped to 8.53% in 2017.

The other three all had pressure percentages that were lower in 2017 than what they achieved in 2016. In the cases of Vita Vea and Taven Bryan, those pressure percentages were slightly lower. In the case of Harrison Phillips the pressure percentage went from 9.18% to 8.14% which is a more sizable jump.

Vita Vea has amassed 80 pressures on 600 pass rush snaps during the three years. Taven Bryan has amassed 68 pressures on 557 pass rush snaps during that span.

The only defensive tackles with better pass rush productivity than Vita Vea in 2017 were Maurice Hurst and Breeland Speaks.
Click to expand...

After going back and evaluating my evaluation of Vea, I understand why some are exceptionally high on him. He gets pressure.

I even went back and viewed some of his 2016 season again when he couldn't even stay on the field 3 downs. I looked very closely at his game against Alabama in the playoffs.

Although to be honest, I never use statistics the way you provided them here in my evaluations. Some might, but there's too many holes and too many variables to consider it an apples to apples comparison. I don't view it any more significantly than I do runningbacks with the most rushing yards or DB's with the most interceptions. They have about the same use for me.

One of the biggest things that separates a conference like the SEC from the PAC-12 are both lines of scrimmage. It's just a different game. To illustrate this and provide a statistical element to it, you can look at the recruiting.

Just over the past 4 years, the average recruiting class of the SEC ranks 19th nationally. While the average recruiting class of the PAC-12 ranks 34th. That difference is seen along the lines of scrimmage when they play each other. It's almost not a fair fight.

However, Vita Vea could clearly match up with Alabama, despite Bo Scarbrough running all over em.

I look at the guys Vea is getting pressure against in the PAC-12, and they're just guys. They're not up to snuff. Even the hyped or known ones can't even sniff a combine invite. JAGS are overmatched against Vea, and that's what the majority of PAC-12 offensive lines are made of.

Bottom line is, I can consider moving Vea up one spot on my underclassman list above Harrison Phillips and feel ok about it. He's one of the top DT's in this class. I couldn't put him above Payne or Bryan though.

Although I ultimately agree with J, I just don't like the return on Vea for as high as he's projected to be drafted...and that's with feeling that he's going to be a pretty good player. But Haloti Ngata? Ngata was getting darn near double digit TFL and sacks in the PAC-12 when he left. Vea doesn't have Ngata's stamina or balance.

I eventually settle on a kid like Vea in the 20's if we're talking about 1st round. He should at least be on the board as long as Vince Wilfork was.

Speaking of a Vea/Ngata comparison, I liken Taven Bryan to J.J. Watt. That's what gets my blood pumping. I can see it on tape. I've never seen Vea dominate games the way Bryan or Payne have....in the SEC.

If Taven Bryan plays to his potential at the next level, he's the best in this class if you ask me.
 
I love Phillips, because he sheds blocks at will and knows how to leverage plays. He's definitely not as athletic as Vea, but he looked like he faced as many double and triple teams as Vea did at Washington - and slid around the line like Vea. I haven't seen the numbers, so I could be wrong about how often each faced double teams, but guys who play a lot of NT, and face a lot of double teams, don't make plays in the backfield like Phillips. When I can point to why a guy makes a lot of plays - using his length, strength, instincts, intelligence, and understanding of leverage (3X State Champion Wrestler) - and he does in fact make a lot of plays. The best OL Phillips faced this year was Notre Dame, where he caused a lot of problems for the Notre Dame OL. Here he is pushing Quenton Nelson into the action.

 
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