Risk vs Reward for Manning

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by MiamiDolphin618, Jan 23, 2012.

  1. MiamiDolphin618

    MiamiDolphin618 A True Fan

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    I am seeing a lot of speculation about Miami being very interested in Manning if he becomes a FA. I think when making this decision, the risk vs reward is the key component. First off, obviously he must be cleared by the docs and be healthy enough to play. Sure, he could be " one big hit" from being done, but that can be said about every single player in the league. Of course, coming off two neck surgeries he is much more at risk for a career ending hit.

    However, the other QBs that seem to be brought up have risks just as great. Matt Flynn, is he going to be elite? Now if Philibin says he wants to go all in for him I will completely trust in his decision, but until that happens I have to question Flynn as elite. Has he looked great in a small sample size? Sure. Is that enough to warrant a large contract...I dont know. Can he come in and play like a top 8 QB, one that we can get to the playoffs and win with? That is a major risk. Same goes for RGIII. Can he compete right now, or do we wait 2-3 years while our premium talent ages. Does he develop? All risks you have to weigh with their rewards. IMO I would rather take the risk on Manning if he is cleared to play. If he stays healthy, we are SB contenders for a few years..and I think that reward is worth it.

    I guess the question is do you think the chance of Manning staying healthy is greater than the chance of Flynn becoming Elite...or RGIII becoming worth the compensation we would have to give up for him? Its a tough call...but I think Philibin is the best candidate to make that call..at least in regard to Flynn.
     
  2. broccoli rob

    broccoli rob proud of your boy

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    Risk: pay a QB a boatload of money
    Reward: have Peyton Manning...

    ill take reward, for 500, Alex.
     
  3. foozool13

    foozool13 #12 #13 #23 #29 #54 #99 Donator

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    If he is healthy enough to play...SIGN HIM UP ASAP! This is Peyton Manning folks. If you can get him, you go get him! .

    Do you give him a max contract?? You bet your *** you do. He is a true franchise QB. Pay the man.
     
  4. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Actually, the risk is the opportunity cost of missing out on Flynn or whoever else we would target as a QB this offseason. The risk is that Manning won't even make it through the preseason (which I think is the most likely scenario).

    This move would be even dumber than the Jets going after Favre, because at least Favre wasn't suffering from a permanent injury that limited his strength and movement in his throwing arm.
     
  5. broccoli rob

    broccoli rob proud of your boy

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    Without question, the right call.

    [​IMG]
     

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  6. Tunaphish429

    Tunaphish429 1st Ballot Hall of Famer Donator

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    To me the risk far outweighs the reward in this case..Peyton has maybe 2 years left..You have to pay him a bunch of money and you cant get those 2 years back..Their is no gurantee of winning it all with him and can he stay healthy?
     
  7. SabanHater

    SabanHater ***** in the House!

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    there is no one else like Peyton. If he's healthy you do it and never look back. He's worth every risk. Also, I'm sure now with his little brother going back to the Super Bowl his drive to get back on the field has tripled.
     
  8. johngarry

    johngarry "Mysterious" Super Donator Donator

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    if you had a C2-C3-C4 fusion, what would you're life's calling be: spending it enjoying the ride on Sundays... or getting run over by a ride multiple times on Sundays?

    stay home Peyton... you've earned it.
     
  9. Penthos

    Penthos Am I on speaker phone?

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    That's the average Joe. This is Peyton Manning. He did't get to his level because he "likes" the game, he got there because he's had a burning desire to play and lifelong dedication to the game. The only way Manning choses not to play is if he can't play.
     
  10. dolfan91

    dolfan91 Starter Donator

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    Cervical Spinal Fusion Surgery, doesn't discriminate against the "AVERAGE JOE" from Peyton Manning or any Athlete for that matter ... This situation is not like having a torn ACL, MCL or Rotator Cuff tear!!! In those cases "ATHLETES" can FAR out rehab the average person to come back as good or better than before the injury!!! in Spinal Fusion cases, your dealing with Vertebra's, Bone Grafs or Bone Cadavors, Titanium or Metal Plates and most of all Spinal Disc removal ... Spinal Fusion doesn't allow for any person with more desire than the average person to get better faster or quicker ... Manning's DESIRE is clouding his judgement in this situation ... no matter how much the "AVERAGE FAN" wants to SPIN IT; because they want Manning in a Dolphins Uniform, there is no escaping the realities of the type of surgery and it's after affects Fusion Surgery causes the human body .... ANYONE who thinks because it's Peyton Manning and he is an NFL Player he's going to get better YOUR ALL FOOLING YOURSELVES!!! EDUCATE YOUR MINDS 1st before blindly making statements about Manning being in Miami ...
     
    J. David Wannyheimer likes this.
  11. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Yup. No amount of rehab is going to make nerves to regenerate or mitigate the fact that he has a graft in his spine.
     
  12. dolfan91

    dolfan91 Starter Donator

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    It amazes me how many FANS want to take a chance, without actually knowing what Spinal Fusion is ... MCL's ACL's and Rotator Cuff's are soft tissue injuries that can heal and a person or athlete can come back 100% with proper rehab!!! Fusion's deal with BONE, which is a very different animal in regards to the Human Anatomy and Surgeries ... I realize that other players have come back from this, but how many of them went on TO STAR in the NFL? I'm just as much a FINS fan as the others, but realize at this point Matt Flynn may be Miami's only hope .. Manning may get cleared by some doctor, but BUYER BEWARE!!! Nerves are Nerves and in Manning's case it's the Nerves that run down his Throwing Arm ... You are 100% correct about Manning!!!
     
  13. MarinoForPres

    MarinoForPres Pro Bowler

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    Matt Flynn will never be Peyton Manning. However I do believe that he can be a good qb at this level especially under Philbin. On the other hand if he is not healthy enough to play football we wouldnt get him any ways. Ill take a Peyton who is proven (if he is cleared to play again) over Flynn any day. So its a win situation for Miami if they get him because you have a great qb now while maybe this year next year get a another qb to groom in this new era. Also I think everyone knows Manning only has at least only a few years left so we know he wont be the qb of the future. I fully understand his injury and no one will even touch him if he dosnt throw before siging him. Thats why there are team physicals and a very in depth analysis before signing someone like this.
     
  14. theguy

    theguy Super Donator Super Donator Donator

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    If Manning is good to go, why not pull the trigger? Is Matt Flynn or RG3 HoFer caliber? When Manning is done with the game, you don't think we'll have other prospects like Flynn? You don't think there's going to be another rookie where we can mortgage the farm to get like RG3? There's a new face every year. None of them are Manning level. At the beginning of the season, Manning would have been a lock for the probowl and have his colts in the playoffs, not selecting first overall in the draft. He would have been arguably the best player in the game. He played through his first neck surgery in 2010 and threw for the second most yards and second most TD's in the season. I think that was a down year for him (lower win%, comp%, QB rating "only" 92). This isn't Brett Favre we're talking about. This is a guy that's trying to be the GOAT through ability, not through playing 5 years past his prime. I say Pull the trigger on sure talent. Let the doctors make the call on whether or not playing the game will endanger his life. All it's going to cost us is Ross' money. No trades, no picks. In the immortal words of Randy Moss, "straight cash, homie."

    Also, the last time we shied away from a QB with injuries was Drew Brees. Time to sack up.
     
  15. Heinegrabber

    Heinegrabber Since 84 Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Henne, Shaub, Cutler, Cassel, Lienhart, all season ending injuries.
    I would take my chance with Manning over all of them. We know we have a decent back up. Use it to our advantage.
     
  16. Penthos

    Penthos Am I on speaker phone?

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    I wasn't comparing him to the "average joe" in a pyshical sense (I thought that was pretty apparent) I was comparing the competative mind set. The average person wouldn't risk it because they don't have the same fire and competative mind set as Manning. It doesn't matter what YOU think he can do, it matters what Peyton thinks he can do. The only way Peyton won't play is if he CAN'T play.
     
  17. J Tes

    J Tes next generation

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    What exactly do they have to do with Peyton Manning? The severity of Mannings injury is worlds worse than
    any of theirs
     
  18. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Peyton manning may recover from surgery to play in the NFL again. He's obsessive, driven and football to his core.

    He probably won't take a hit that paralyses him. That's a bit melodramatic. But I bet within the first few months of coming back he takes a hit that is excruciatingly painful and causes him some problems where he begins to realise the consequences of going out on a Sunday and taking severe punishment to a body the was already getting old. Now, on top of that, he's extremely vulnerable in an area that takes a lot of strain, an injury to which could determine his future mobility and quality of life.

    I don't care who you are. Self-preservation is not an instinct to be ignored and Manning will get a reminder of the precariousness of his mortality/health within weeks of coming back. No oline in the league will be able to keep him totally safe.

    So is a Manning in self preservation mode worth it? For as long as he plays, absolutely. It's Peyton Manning for gods sake. But he won't play for long so I hope we prepare a plan B as well as plan A if we bite and bring him here.

    I doubt we get a full season from him, but they'd be a great few games I guess...
     
  19. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    What we're trying to get across here is that there's NOTHING he can do to speed the process or improve his rehab. There's no amazing rehab technique he can employ to regenerate nerve damage. He just has to wait and pray for a ****ing miracle. And at this point, it'd need to be a damn big one. Because when he got that third desperation surgery months after the first two, that was a real bad sign.

    So if you want Peyton Manning to play here and give you three years of great QB play, you'd better hope Tebow flies up to Indy and lays hands on him.
     
  20. dolfan91

    dolfan91 Starter Donator

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    Fair point ... And my point is most fan's aren't seeing the negative side too his condition .. they are hooked on his Status as an Elite QB ... Thinking if he comes back, he'll be the same or close to the same ... But the type of surgery HE has had won't allow him to ever be 100% .. and when you take into consideration it's the NECK and Arm that are affected, the same arm that has made him GREAT ... you begin to realize he is not worth spending millions of dollars on; in HOPES he can be 100%
     
  21. Penthos

    Penthos Am I on speaker phone?

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    OMG, really ...?

    I never said there was a way to speed anything up or that he was some sort of super human. All I'm saying is that the ONLY way a person like Peyton Manning doesn't play, is if he CAN'T play. That's it. If Peyton Manning is physically capable of playing he will play, regardless of whether YOU think he can or should play, or not.
     
  22. Penthos

    Penthos Am I on speaker phone?

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    Totally understand that and it's a completely valid point. Personally, I think he is done but he doesn't know it yet... However, I am wrong ALL THE TIME :)
     
  23. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I got you. I tried to read too much into your post -- I guess I have seen so many "oh my goodness, he's an athlete! Of course he can rehab from it! He's like superman!" posts that I'm starting to see them when they're not even there.

    You're right, that it's possible he tries to sign with another team, knowing full well that he's in real bad shape. He has the opportunity to really screw over someone's franchise this season, and I just hope it's not ours. Been saying for months that I really do hope he goes to the Jets, because I think that ends worse than the Favre signing did.
     
  24. dolfan91

    dolfan91 Starter Donator

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    Excellent points!!! you also need to remember when you get Cervical Spinal Fusion Surgery, believe it or not a sneeze or cough can have extremely bad consequences to the nerves in his throwing arm ... this type of surgery ALTERS the NATURAL Movement of the Human Anatomy!!! also keep in mind, paralysis is a real possibility at any given moment when you deal with the Tender and Delicate area of the Neck ... You may not want to think it's possible, but it is INDEED very possible ... just ask any Spinal Surgeon!!! but you are being very realistic in your analysis he won't make it through a full season ...
     
  25. DzakkH13

    DzakkH13 Winning is a Habit Donator

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    Assuming Manning is released and is cleared to play again, the best case scenario (Super Bowl Champs) heavily outweighs the worst case scenario (he is half his former self and we finish 6-10 again).

    It's a not brain-er if you ask me (assuming he is released and can pass a physical).
     
  26. Heinegrabber

    Heinegrabber Since 84 Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Thanks doctor.
     
  27. JCane

    JCane Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    People not even asking the real risk/reward question here...

    What is Peyton Manning's risk/reward? What is his risk versus his reward.

    Risking further injury to an already very severe neck injury or hope to win another Super Bowl in a division where I have to play Tom Brady at least twice a year.

    And some people call me selfish.
     
  28. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I know.

    But Manning has had a third surgery. He's clearly aiming to come back. His dad is putting the maximum positive spin on the situation.

    It doesn't look at this stage that he has decided the risk isn't worth it. That day will come sooner rather than later in my view. Someone will attempt to take his head off (look at the story of 49ers KR/PR Williams being targeted because he is concussion prone - think Manning won't be targeted?) and the man with three neck ops and cervical joints fused together with plates and screws is going to reassess the need to go out and prove the Miami Dolphins or some other team is playoff-worthy.
     
  29. JCane

    JCane Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Eh, I don't know if three surgeries necessarily means he's clearly aiming to come back. I mean obviously he wants to come back but surgery after surgery means he just wants to live a healthy life more than anything.
     
  30. Captain Lou

    Captain Lou FinHeaven VIP

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    I find it ironic that you're telling people to educate themselves about Peyton's condition before making a decision. The last time I checked fans don't sign players. One more thing he is dealing with the absolute best doctors and surgeons on the planet. If he passes a physical and has the same velocity on his throws you sign him. Simple as that!
     
  31. PHINATIC13

    PHINATIC13 A True Fan

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    ...I don't know if Peyton will ever play in the NFL again........but you can be damn sure it won't be from a lack of effort on his part...personally I'd like to see Peyton get to checkout from the game on his terms....and not forced out because of injury....unfortunately the latter seems to be ahead in the Polls....



    ....would have loved to see Manning in a Dolphin uniform for a few years though....
     
  32. dolfan91

    dolfan91 Starter Donator

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    Manning may have access to, "The Best Surgeons on the Planet" or the Best of whatever .. How did that work out for him? Having access to the best doesn't necessarily mean you get the best!!! like I've said in many post about Manning, Fusion Surgeries don't discriminate or differentiate between an Athlete or the
    Average Joe ... Once the Plate is Screwed into the Spine; Athlete and Average Joe are 1 in the same ... Plain and Simple!!! Both the Athlete and Average Joe can rehab all they want, some better than others, but it still can't change the fact; the human anatomy is surgically altered, leaving Athlete and the Average Joe in the very same position ... Manning may be able to rehab to the point of throwing a football, but that doesn't mean you pay him millions of dollars to POSSIBLY be able to throw like before, that won't happen ...
     
  33. RayNTampa

    RayNTampa Active Member

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    If Manning is healthy..The front office may look at it as a business decision as to who will sell more tickets at the end of the day Manning > Flynn
     
  34. Blustar

    Blustar Well-Known Member

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    so you're saying that all surgeons have the same skill and understanding of the human anatomy, and one doctor couldn't possibly succeed and perform a surgery better than the other one? All doctors are the same? Is that what you're saying?
     
  35. finnyfan4life

    finnyfan4life It Is What It Is

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    If Peyton can still play I want him on my team...simple as that. I dont care about the possible health risk, thats his choice.
     
  36. dolfan91

    dolfan91 Starter Donator

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    No I'm not saying that!!! of course surgeons have different skills, some better than others .. the point is; once the plate is attached to the spine, you can't change, what the plate does to the human anatomy .. it alters a person movement capabilities ... Fusion Surgery is what it is, no amount of rehab can give back the natural ball bearing, the disc is to a spine ... disc give a human being ability to bend, twist or turn ... some people rehab better than others, where they feel less pain and numbness on a daily basis, but the surgery will not give a person back 100% of what it was able to do before the injury and surgery ... Manning may get to the point where he can throw a football regularly, but it will come at a price in terms of arm fatigue and numbness, and that is not counting when he takes a hit and jerks his neck ... also another point I was trying to make, In Spite of having the capabilities of seeing the best of the best, he still has had 3 surgeries, so what good was it that he was able to see the best and still had enough complicates to have additional surgeries!!! just because he can see the best doesn't mean, Manning got a better chance than say the Average Joe ...
     
  37. garbagemouth

    garbagemouth Rookie

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    At the end of the day the only way you get QB's the level of Peyton Manning and Drew Brees at this stage in their careers is if there is some sort of risk your willing to take. In 2006 it was the 11 surgical anchors to Brees labrum that made him an option, this year it's the Fusion Surgery for Manning. At some point the Dolphins will have to take a chance to get an elite QB. If the dolphins sign Manning and he can't physically play anymore what is the big risk? His contract will clearly be written with protections to the team for that situation so I can't imagine it will be cap issues. As far as missing out on Flynn or RGIII they aren't any more a sure bet than a top draftpick QB would be any other year.
     

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