Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DKphin, May 24, 2009.
Proper link to article
I know FH is a bit touchy about putting competitor's articles on here, if you want it removed go ahead
Nice read. But my question is why is he a "former" scout?
Kudos to Curt Fennel for the article.
i liked it, a well-written piece of scouting. good shot.
even I wouldn't screw with the Godfather's website. :hi5: Besides for the most part we get along with our "competitors". Any questions feel free to Pm me.
The way I see it, he didn't say anything bad about any of our picks therefore it is mainly a fluff piece...
I don't want him to totally bash us either but just give us an equilibrium and love and hate (with emphasis on the love) and I will be happy.
Our last round draft pick the ILB from Webber is going to be interesting to watch. No body knows hardly anything of the kid so if he sticks big kudos to our scouts if not "What were they Thinking Pick"!!! Yes I know it is the 7th round but there was still value in that round.
7th round is like John Beck value... only worth a good controversy or two.
Russ Lande, is currently a Sporting News.com NFL Draft Expert and President and Founder of GMJR.com. For the Sporting News, Lande is responsible for writing NFL insider content, providing detailed scouting reports on college players and posting an ongoing mock draft in the “War Room” leading up to the NFL Draft. Before working for Sporting News, Lande served as a college scout for the Cleveland Browns for three years covering the mid-west region while evaluating all eligible prospects for the NFL Draft. He covers all-star games, the NFL Combine and pro days. Lande continues to appear on radio stations across the country.
"Russ's ability to evaluate talent and report on what he sees accurately is outstanding!!
-- **** Vermeil, Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Yeah...I mean, if you hit on a 7th? Good job dude. Seriously. It's a crap shoot at that level.
Still tired of the rehashed unproven crap about NE being so excited about Pat White. Yea they loved him so much they passed on him twice with the dolphins the wildcat team coming up to pick. Seems like a huge smokescreen at best because there is no way they pass on him with us coming up to pick if they liked him so much. Dallas I agree was a possible destination especially since they overdrafted McGhee and they had overdrafted Stanback a few years ago. I respect Lande but that opinion lacks any substance or common sense.
really?? perhaps we have a different definition of 'bad'.
from the article...
(John Nalbone) looks like he should be a dominant blocker but he's actually a below average blocker
(Chris Clemons) In the games I charted, he missed more tackles then he made... He needs a ton of technique work to become more than just a run around the field backup type guy."
Some scout must've seen a good workout of (J.D. Folsom) because I talked to five scouts who covered Weber State and none of him knew who he was."
so based on your value of the pick (or whatever) you consider speculation the cowboys were about to draft him legitimate as opposed to the patriots being 'rehashed unproven crap'.
has nothing to do with the value of the pick. I said the cowboys rumor was a possibility since they overdrafted Stephen McGee the next round and traded down once we drafted. NE obviously was not enamoured with White since they passed twice in the same round. There is no evidence that supports that NE was going to draft White since they passed with 4 draft picks in the same round.
curt fennel and finheaven im always going back and forth both are awesome sites to keep up with your team....
Didn't the Dolphins sign Wake before the draft? That would be a good reason why he didn't get drafted.
I'm sure he was referring to why Wake wasn't drafted in the 2005 draft....
The notion that the Patriots were as high on Pat White as Miami might be the most consistently reported draft rumor reguarding this entire draft....every publication, draft website, scout, and journalist with any "inside" information has reported this ad nauseam...
...but the Pats didn't pass on White twice in the 2nd round....the passed on him THREE times....
...but they did end up selecting a "poor man's" Pat White in the 7th round with the selection of Kent St. quarterback, Julian Edelman....apparently specifically for some Wildcat type packages....
Well as for Edelman many feel he may be able to be a receiver in the NFL and will probably be a practice squad player. In that he will probably be used on the scout team so they can prepare for our wildcat. I dont see NE using the wildcat much, yea lets take Tom Brady off the field to play a rookie qb in the wildcat.
I do think using three second round picks on other players more than proves that NE was not enamoured with Pat White and those rumors were totally wrong.
Exactly. And this is one of the issues I have about this team. We seem to have staked an awful, awful lot on the Wildcat. The reason we are using it is because we were and are unable to impose our will on other teams. Notice the Superbowl teams throughout history? One common thread between them is they were able to impose their will on other teams. The WCO is sometimes compared to the Wildcat here. It's just laughable. The WCO is a philsosiphy.
The Pats are able to impose their will on other teams for the most part. Make no mistake...If Brady was healthy all last year, the Pats finish atop the AFC East. I know it's unpopular to think it, but, BB is a very good coach and, Brady is a hell of a QB. I think, sadly, that the Pats sort of fleeced our FO in the draft.
We fleeced ourselves. Yea our biggest need a 6 foot qb to run the wildcat. Cannot think of a pick I have disliked this much since Jamar Fletcher.
You know, that was the first name that flashed through my head. I'm not the best talent evaluator. I suck at all the draft stuff, but, sometimes you just go..."What?!" Fletcher got smoked by Freddie Mitchell and we know where he wound up. That was such a horrid pick. Smoot would've been such a better value there.
I don't have an issue with the White pick, per sey. It's just we reached, big time, IMO.
I personally have a huge issue with the pick(hope Im wrong)
when teams start drafting high for part time players over starters in the long run that hurts.
As for why Lande is a "former" scout...I'm just taking a guess here but I happen to know that a real scout's schedule is grueling, spending a lot of time on the road, working 12 to 16 hour days, etc. As a well paid writer for a national publication, he probably gets to make the same money while working half as hard.
Well put. Its like the people that say that if Kiper is so good how come he is not an NFL scout. why would he take such a pay cut?
It was a luxury selection, but it was also a luxury pick. Remember that. Why did the Dolphins have the #44 pick in the NFL Draft in the first place? Because they loaned Jason Taylor out to the Washington Redskins just long enough for him to be a massive disappointment and then come back to Miami with his tail tucked between his legs willing to work hard for very little money.
When they sent him away, Jason Taylor was ticked off at all the coaching changes in Miami, feeling urgency in building his post-football career, in "dancing" shape rather than football shape, wanting to be on some other team and wanting a typical veteran's shortcut/privilege through the off season training. They got him back one year later at a fraction of the price, willing to work hard, turning down the team that actually gave him the best chance to win a championship, and so motivated that when they tell him to jump he asks "How high?".
Just for that service alone, I would have paid the Redskins. Instead, they paid us. That #44 pick was a luxury pick and so they used it on a luxury player that they are taking a stab could make the team better by presenting a threat to multiple facets of the game. It's the equivalent of a pass play where the quarterback can see that the defense jumped off sides at the snap, so he goes ahead and takes a risk free shot up the field.
You can't evaluate one side without the other, IMO. Let's say, for instance, that somehow they never got a 2nd rounder for Jason Taylor...and they were picking #44 instead of #56 for some other reason...Pat White is not a Dolphin. This is also why NE was looking at Pat White, because through their trading efforts, they acquired a number of luxury picks available to be used.
Exactly. You see the same thing with former players that are known as smart, cerebral guys, and they go into broadcasting. Everyone wonders, why they don't go ahead and become a coach? Because as a coach, you get a fraction of the money to work three times as hard.
It takes a special kind of competitiveness and love for the game to go ahead and become a coach when you know that you could be a broadcaster, or if you've made a ton of money as a player already. Zach might do it, but he's about the only one I can think of off the top of my head.
I dont see it the same way. I dont see a pick as any less just because we got it in a lopsided trade. I see it as we passed on players like Simtim that will be starters in this league for a short run first qb. I guess Marcus Vick was busy. Funny how he would actually have value in the league if he was in this draft.
I also dont think NE had any true interest in White since it was likely we would pick him and they had three 2nd rounders they used before him. If anything it was a smokescreen. I dont see NE investing this much in the wildcat.
CK, I respect your take on the issue, and, I agree that this was very possibly the FOs take on the pick. My point is that just because you have something of value, does not mean that it is without relative value. We got a 2nd rounder free of charge, essentially. This does not mean this pick is somehow inherantly less valuable. It's a draft pick, just like every other draft pick. Chocolate sprinkles on a dog turd does not make the turd a chocolate cake. It's just a dog turd with sprinkles on it.
I can't think that there was not a better guy out there to spend that pick on.
Did you just compare the dolphins drafting the second coming of christ in the 2nd round to chocolate sprinkles on a dog turd?
When Bruce banner gets mad he turns into the hulk. When the hulk gets mad he turns into Pat White.
I have been informed my brand of humor is offensive and I will no longer engage in it.
I hope White will do well.
I totally agree Goon....that just sounds like another spin job to me...
The reality is....the extent of the Patriots being "enamored" with Pat White was probably Belly and Parcells having a discussion together reguarding White's talent....in which Belly might have said..."Yeah he's a great athlete...a tremendous college football player...the ultimate winner...scary to think about facing him as the spearhead in your WC package, Bill".....
Not that Parcells drafted White because of this...that's rediculous....but I think whatever interest Belly may have expressed in Pat White...at least as far as selecting him high in the draft was concerned....was nothing more than blowing smoke up anyone's *** that would lend their ***...
I probably question these guys and their picks...and their entire thought process more than anybody....but I don't think they're into "luxury" picks at all....
I don't think they would've drafted Pat White in the 2nd round unless they were ABSOLUTELY convinced that it was going to bear fruit...in some form or another....meanwhile by-passing players that, more than likely, projected as starters type material at certain positions for a team like Miami...
Basically...lending out JT for year in exchange for a 2nd round pick and getting him back on the cheap humbled doesn't motivate these guys to "gamble" on said 2nd round draft pick....not IMO....
...because if you miss...one..or even two years of JT isn't going to make up for that "luxury" pick you blew no matter what...
Exactly. This will not be remembered as a luxury pick. No pick is a luxury pick. It's laughable, to tell the truth. It's like....A dollar isn't a dollar if you find it. It buys X ammount of goods or services. If you find the dollar, it's not like it's inherently less valuable or buys lesser amounts of goods or services.
I don't think Jamar Fletcher was a bad pick at the time based on talent....I really don't....Fletcher was an excellent cornerback in college and had just come off winning the Thorpe Award as the best DB in college football...
The problem IMO.....was that you had two pro bowl cornerbacks already....What the **** are you doing using your 1st round pick on a guy that's only going to be your nickel corner at BEST.....at least for the foreseeable future....when the team obviously has needs elsewhere...
Like a mf'ing QUARTERBACK...DAVE!! lol
this guy wasn't the least bit critical of any of our picks. i mean, cmon.
The reasoning you dont like the Fletcher pick is the same I dont like the White pick. Unless he is our future starter which I doubt, we had bigger needs elsewhere.
If you look into my album, you will see me sporting WI gear. My best freind int he world is a WI fan. He's WI Badger to the bone. He was also a CB in High School. He told me about the WI picks....
"Fletcher will never make it at the pro level." and, "Chambers will make the spectacular catch. He's money when he concentrates. He will have the critical third down passes bounce off his hands because he looks upfield a beat early"
I find him very knowledgeable about WI football players.
I hope Pat White works out. I really do.
That 'luxury pick' spin is total hogwash.... oh, i just noticed it was already properly bashed.
I hope every pick works out, I just dont see it. usually my first instincts about our high draft picks have been very good but I would love to be wrong.
not many wrongs unfortunately
I don't think you can ignore the aspect of diminished risk.
I find the thinking that all players have an inherent value relative to one another in the draft regardless of risk appetite to be very two-dimensional. Risk is an element that has a heavy hand in draft valuation.
Let me give you an example. When you're picking top 5 in the draft, you're automatically on the hook for something like a $50-70 million total contract, with upwards of $20 to $40 million in guaranteed money. This makes the valuation of the top 5 players in this draft very heavily influenced by negative risk appetite. You can't afford to miss on that pick. If you do miss on it, it isn't that you just missed an opportunity to get a player in an area of the draft where 70% of them turn out to be good players...if you miss, you get suckered into a ton of deadweight money on your cap, negative press, pressure on your coaching staff to make the pick work (coaches have been fired on the assumption that another coach might get more out of a certain disappointing top pick), etc.
No longer are you charged with finding the best player, when you're picking that high. No longer are you charged with finding the guy that has a chance to really change the fortunes of your franchise for the better. Now you're focused on picking a safe player, because by god if you get a bust it is an absolute disaster.
Could Matt Ryan have gone #1 overall to us last year? Absolutely. He's a Quarterback, this is still a Quarterback's game and it is by far the most important position in the game. Getting a franchise Quarterback gives you six cylinders under the hood when everyone else is working with four. And on top of that, Matt Ryan graded as a good player. Ideal size and build, decent arm, ton of experience, good accuracy, a leader with all of the intangibles you could ask for, will push the ball up the field rather than kill your offense with a bunch of short throws, has the ability and accuracy to push the ball up the field. He was not only the best Quarterback in that draft, he compared favorably with other Quarterbacks in other drafts as well (he wasn't just the man with one eye in the land of the blind). Getting this player has probably singlely changed the fortunes of the Atlanta Falcons franchise for the next decade.
But, he wasn't the best pick Miami could have made at #1 overall in 2008. He wasn't the best pick because there was probably a 40% chance that he would be worth nothing even close to the amount of money that he got in his contract. When a Quarterback turns out not to be a franchise Quarterback, the dropoff in worth is tremendous. There was probably only a 10 or 20% (Tony Mandarich) chance that Jake Long would end up not worth close to the contract he was paid. This is because even if he didn't quite have the feet to protect a Quarterback's blind side, he could probably still move over to the right side and be a Vernon Carey...and Vernon Carey is a pretty well-paid man. Or he could move inside and be a Leonard Davis, and Leonard Davis is a pretty well-paid man as well.
Jake Long is a terrific player. He went to the Pro Bowl in his rookie year. You can't really be unhappy with him. But, getting him is not a move that singlehandedly changed the fortunes of the Miami franchise . That honor probably belongs to Chad Pennington and if it weren't for Chad Pennington, right now everyone would be saying that Miami made a terrible mistake passing on Matt Ryan for Jake Long.
But it was the right move because of the riskiness of the picks involved. Risk appetite affected the value of the draft prospects.
There is a level of risk aversion present in every draft pick. This is because the building and maintaining of an NFL franchise absolutely requires that you infuse the roster with multiple roster worthy young players every single year that have contracts that (if they survive cuts and live to make an impact) are automatically lower than their real worth.
If you don't come away from drafts with some impact starters and some decent subs, your franchise will fall as surely as Rome. Was it any coincidence that the Dolphins followed up four mediocre-to-bad-to-awful drafts from 2000-2003 with four mediocre-to-bad-to-awful seasons from 2004-2007? Absolutely not. Coming away from just one draft with no players is devastating and can have lasting effects for years. On the other hand, coming away from one draft with a bunch of really good players can set your team up to compete for many years.
So you can't ignore the diminished risk involved in acquiring an extra mid-2nd rounder basically for free. It affords you one of two options, IMO. You can look at the entire draft with an increased across-the-board risk appetite. Or, you can value the bulk of your draft picks normally, the way you are use to doing year-in and year-out, except you set aside one pick in which you re-assess the value of the players and take one as if the risk involved in grabbing a bust is significantly diminished (because it is).
The Dolphins chose the latter. The Dolphins didn't choose a player that is inherently less valuable than Clint Sintim. They chose a player than is inherently more risky than Clint Sintim, but that also holds the possibility of a higher reward. If you have a choice between one envelope that has a 50% chance of containing $10, and another envelope that has a 25% chance of containing $20, if you are a risk-averse chooser you choose the 50% chance every time. But, in a risk-neutral atmosphere your choice between the two should be random. Neither is worth more than the other. Both options are equally valuable. For one pick the Dolphins increased their appetite for risk, re-assessed the valuation of the players involved accordingly, and made their selection.
con⋅cise –adjective expressing or covering much in few words; brief in form but comprehensive in scope; succinct; terse:
Awesome contribution to the conversation. You should be proud. Do you always cover for a lack of intelligent thought with useless ridicule? Or are you just feeling saucy today.
Fantastic rebut, CK....I think you just missed what my point was. My point was not about the relative value of a player to another player. I was just saying that just because you get a gift of a draft pick (The Taylor) It does not give you the blank slate for a shot down the field. A 2nd is not a play-fake option...A 2nd is where you need to go to find starting, every-down contributers.
I never saw Jake Long as a LT Failure in the NFL. I'm not a draft guy.....I suck at these things in general, but, I know bad value when I see it. I know I got to watch lots of UM Football that year and, I was all over Jake Long. Before I bought a draft book...I was like...*Wow*...That guy is unreal.
At any rate...I ramble. My whole point here is that there is no pick that is somehow "found money". A 2nd, is a 2nd is a 2nd. You don't waste money and, you don't waste draft picks.
And my point was, with no offense meant, that your line of thinking in this regard is pretty two-dimensional. Getting a pick for free, necessitates an increase in risk appetite across the board. As I said, you can do this across the board with all of the picks and make them all a little more risk-neutral (as opposed to the usual, risk-averse)...or you can just make one pick with a healthy risk appetite but value the rest accordingly.
If you don't adjust your risk appetite to reflect the addition of a free pick like that, then you are doing yourself a disservice. You're taking the envelope with a 50% chance at $10 and ignoring the envelope with a 25% chance of, let's say, $25.
I agree with you. I also see that the FO saw a four year starter in a major college conference who won 5 bowl games during his career (I'm including the Senior) against excellent competition. Someone who could take the Wildcat to another level and provide pressure on heir apparent Henne in a contrasting, not identical, way. Good accuracy (big factor for BP). I wonder if White was picked because of his differences with Henne, that he brings things to the table that Chad H doesn't. Suppose we run through a slate of O-line injuries and Henne and White are our 1/2. Maybe Pat gives us more chances to win those games with his escapability. Beck would have been a Henne clone as a back-up QB. White is DIFFERENT. Normally back-up QBs are non-factors in a game. White has the capability to make plays from that position. Is he worth the pick? None of us know. Folks who have played against him and watched him closely rave about the guy. I'm going to hold judgment until down the road. Let's see what the kid can do.
I do hope that our FO has more maturity than my kids do and not let "found money" or "found picks" go to waste. We haven't even seen him in TC, people. I don't want to burden White with expectations or write him off....yet.
From the sound of it, your kids have the potential to be gifted economists.
CK, I take absolutely no offense. I respect your position.
10.00 is 10.00. If you find 10.00 on the ground....It's still 10.00. It does not inherently become 11.00 0r 9.00 because it was found on the ground.
I respect that you like the White pick. Most do. I don't.
Value is value is value. Because you find a 10 bucks on the ground, does not devalue the 10 bucks.
We wasted a good pick on Pat White. That's really what this is.
In 3 years I might agree wholeheartedly with you. Time will tell. I do understand how this pick can cause head-scratching. I know the FO spends a lot more time looking at players than I do and I also know that they don't always get it right.