Russ Lande(former scout) on the rookies | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Russ Lande(former scout) on the rookies

cafinfan408 said:
Did you just compare the dolphins drafting the second coming of christ in the 2nd round to chocolate sprinkles on a dog turd?
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blasphemy.

When Bruce banner gets mad he turns into the hulk. When the hulk gets mad he turns into Pat White.
 
GoonBoss said:
CK, I respect your take on the issue, and, I agree that this was very possibly the FOs take on the pick. My point is that just because you have something of value, does not mean that it is without relative value. We got a 2nd rounder free of charge, essentially. This does not mean this pick is somehow inherantly less valuable. It's a draft pick, just like every other draft pick. Chocolate sprinkles on a dog turd does not make the turd a chocolate cake. It's just a dog turd with sprinkles on it.

I can't think that there was not a better guy out there to spend that pick on.
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I totally agree Goon....that just sounds like another spin job to me...

The reality is....the extent of the Patriots being "enamored" with Pat White was probably Belly and Parcells having a discussion together reguarding White's talent....in which Belly might have said..."Yeah he's a great athlete...a tremendous college football player...the ultimate winner...scary to think about facing him as the spearhead in your WC package, Bill".....

Not that Parcells drafted White because of this...that's rediculous....but I think whatever interest Belly may have expressed in Pat White...at least as far as selecting him high in the draft was concerned....was nothing more than blowing smoke up anyone's *** that would lend their ***...

I probably question these guys and their picks...and their entire thought process more than anybody....but I don't think they're into "luxury" picks at all....

I don't think they would've drafted Pat White in the 2nd round unless they were ABSOLUTELY convinced that it was going to bear fruit...in some form or another....meanwhile by-passing players that, more than likely, projected as starters type material at certain positions for a team like Miami...

Basically...lending out JT for year in exchange for a 2nd round pick and getting him back on the cheap humbled doesn't motivate these guys to "gamble" on said 2nd round draft pick....not IMO....

...because if you miss...one..or even two years of JT isn't going to make up for that "luxury" pick you blew no matter what...
 
TedSlimmJr said:
I totally agree Goon....that just sounds like another spin job to me...



...because if you miss...one..or even two years of JT isn't going to make up for that "luxury" pick you blew no matter what...
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Exactly. This will not be remembered as a luxury pick. No pick is a luxury pick. It's laughable, to tell the truth. It's like....A dollar isn't a dollar if you find it. It buys X ammount of goods or services. If you find the dollar, it's not like it's inherently less valuable or buys lesser amounts of goods or services.
 
GoonBoss said:
You know, that was the first name that flashed through my head. I'm not the best talent evaluator. I suck at all the draft stuff, but, sometimes you just go..."What?!" Fletcher got smoked by Freddie Mitchell and we know where he wound up. That was such a horrid pick. Smoot would've been such a better value there.

I don't have an issue with the White pick, per sey. It's just we reached, big time, IMO.
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I don't think Jamar Fletcher was a bad pick at the time based on talent....I really don't....Fletcher was an excellent cornerback in college and had just come off winning the Thorpe Award as the best DB in college football...

The problem IMO.....was that you had two pro bowl cornerbacks already....What the **** are you doing using your 1st round pick on a guy that's only going to be your nickel corner at BEST.....at least for the foreseeable future....when the team obviously has needs elsewhere...

Like a mf'ing QUARTERBACK...DAVE!! lol
 
TedSlimmJr said:
I don't think Jamar Fletcher was a bad pick at the time based on talent....I really don't....Fletcher was an excellent cornerback in college and had just come off winning the Thorpe Award as the best DB in college football...

The problem IMO.....was that you had two pro bowl cornerbacks already....What the **** are you doing using your 1st round pick on a guy that's only going to be your nickel corner at BEST.....at least for the foreseeable future....when the team obviously has needs elsewhere...

Like a mf'ing QUARTERBACK...DAVE!! lol
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The reasoning you dont like the Fletcher pick is the same I dont like the White pick. Unless he is our future starter which I doubt, we had bigger needs elsewhere.
 
dlockz said:
The reasoning you dont like the Fletcher pick is the same I dont like the White pick. Unless he is our future starter which I doubt, we had bigger needs elsewhere.
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If you look into my album, you will see me sporting WI gear. My best freind int he world is a WI fan. He's WI Badger to the bone. He was also a CB in High School. He told me about the WI picks....

"Fletcher will never make it at the pro level." and, "Chambers will make the spectacular catch. He's money when he concentrates. He will have the critical third down passes bounce off his hands because he looks upfield a beat early"

I find him very knowledgeable about WI football players.

I hope Pat White works out. I really do.
 
That 'luxury pick' spin is total hogwash.... oh, i just noticed it was already properly bashed.
 
GoonBoss said:
If you look into my album, you will see me sporting WI gear. My best freind int he world is a WI fan. He's WI Badger to the bone. He was also a CB in High School. He told me about the WI picks....

"Fletcher will never make it at the pro level." and, "Chambers will make the spectacular catch. He's money when he concentrates. He will have the critical third down passes bounce off his hands because he looks upfield a beat early"

I find him very knowledgeable about WI football players.

I hope Pat White works out. I really do.
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I hope every pick works out, I just dont see it. usually my first instincts about our high draft picks have been very good but I would love to be wrong.

John Beck
Jason Allen
Jamar Fletcher
Samson Satale
Joe Toledo
Lorenzo booker
JJ Johnson
Ben Kelly
John avery
Grey Ruegemeyer
Billy Milner
Andrew Greene
Dorien Brew
Yatil Green
Eddie Moore

not many wrongs unfortunately
 
GoonBoss said:
CK, I respect your take on the issue, and, I agree that this was very possibly the FOs take on the pick. My point is that just because you have something of value, does not mean that it is without relative value. We got a 2nd rounder free of charge, essentially. This does not mean this pick is somehow inherantly less valuable. It's a draft pick, just like every other draft pick. Chocolate sprinkles on a dog turd does not make the turd a chocolate cake. It's just a dog turd with sprinkles on it.

I can't think that there was not a better guy out there to spend that pick on.
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I don't think you can ignore the aspect of diminished risk.

I find the thinking that all players have an inherent value relative to one another in the draft regardless of risk appetite to be very two-dimensional. Risk is an element that has a heavy hand in draft valuation.

Let me give you an example. When you're picking top 5 in the draft, you're automatically on the hook for something like a $50-70 million total contract, with upwards of $20 to $40 million in guaranteed money. This makes the valuation of the top 5 players in this draft very heavily influenced by negative risk appetite. You can't afford to miss on that pick. If you do miss on it, it isn't that you just missed an opportunity to get a player in an area of the draft where 70% of them turn out to be good players...if you miss, you get suckered into a ton of deadweight money on your cap, negative press, pressure on your coaching staff to make the pick work (coaches have been fired on the assumption that another coach might get more out of a certain disappointing top pick), etc.

No longer are you charged with finding the best player, when you're picking that high. No longer are you charged with finding the guy that has a chance to really change the fortunes of your franchise for the better. Now you're focused on picking a safe player, because by god if you get a bust it is an absolute disaster.

Could Matt Ryan have gone #1 overall to us last year? Absolutely. He's a Quarterback, this is still a Quarterback's game and it is by far the most important position in the game. Getting a franchise Quarterback gives you six cylinders under the hood when everyone else is working with four. And on top of that, Matt Ryan graded as a good player. Ideal size and build, decent arm, ton of experience, good accuracy, a leader with all of the intangibles you could ask for, will push the ball up the field rather than kill your offense with a bunch of short throws, has the ability and accuracy to push the ball up the field. He was not only the best Quarterback in that draft, he compared favorably with other Quarterbacks in other drafts as well (he wasn't just the man with one eye in the land of the blind). Getting this player has probably singlely changed the fortunes of the Atlanta Falcons franchise for the next decade.

But, he wasn't the best pick Miami could have made at #1 overall in 2008. He wasn't the best pick because there was probably a 40% chance that he would be worth nothing even close to the amount of money that he got in his contract. When a Quarterback turns out not to be a franchise Quarterback, the dropoff in worth is tremendous. There was probably only a 10 or 20% (Tony Mandarich) chance that Jake Long would end up not worth close to the contract he was paid. This is because even if he didn't quite have the feet to protect a Quarterback's blind side, he could probably still move over to the right side and be a Vernon Carey...and Vernon Carey is a pretty well-paid man. Or he could move inside and be a Leonard Davis, and Leonard Davis is a pretty well-paid man as well.

Jake Long is a terrific player. He went to the Pro Bowl in his rookie year. You can't really be unhappy with him. But, getting him is not a move that singlehandedly changed the fortunes of the Miami franchise . That honor probably belongs to Chad Pennington and if it weren't for Chad Pennington, right now everyone would be saying that Miami made a terrible mistake passing on Matt Ryan for Jake Long.

But it was the right move because of the riskiness of the picks involved. Risk appetite affected the value of the draft prospects.

There is a level of risk aversion present in every draft pick. This is because the building and maintaining of an NFL franchise absolutely requires that you infuse the roster with multiple roster worthy young players every single year that have contracts that (if they survive cuts and live to make an impact) are automatically lower than their real worth.

If you don't come away from drafts with some impact starters and some decent subs, your franchise will fall as surely as Rome. Was it any coincidence that the Dolphins followed up four mediocre-to-bad-to-awful drafts from 2000-2003 with four mediocre-to-bad-to-awful seasons from 2004-2007? Absolutely not. Coming away from just one draft with no players is devastating and can have lasting effects for years. On the other hand, coming away from one draft with a bunch of really good players can set your team up to compete for many years.

So you can't ignore the diminished risk involved in acquiring an extra mid-2nd rounder basically for free. It affords you one of two options, IMO. You can look at the entire draft with an increased across-the-board risk appetite. Or, you can value the bulk of your draft picks normally, the way you are use to doing year-in and year-out, except you set aside one pick in which you re-assess the value of the players and take one as if the risk involved in grabbing a bust is significantly diminished (because it is).

The Dolphins chose the latter. The Dolphins didn't choose a player that is inherently less valuable than Clint Sintim. They chose a player than is inherently more risky than Clint Sintim, but that also holds the possibility of a higher reward. If you have a choice between one envelope that has a 50% chance of containing $10, and another envelope that has a 25% chance of containing $20, if you are a risk-averse chooser you choose the 50% chance every time. But, in a risk-neutral atmosphere your choice between the two should be random. Neither is worth more than the other. Both options are equally valuable. For one pick the Dolphins increased their appetite for risk, re-assessed the valuation of the players involved accordingly, and made their selection.
 
dear parrot,
con⋅cise –adjective expressing or covering much in few words; brief in form but comprehensive in scope; succinct; terse:
 
72champagne said:
dear parrot,
con⋅cise –adjective expressing or covering much in few words; brief in form but comprehensive in scope; succinct; terse:
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Awesome contribution to the conversation. You should be proud. Do you always cover for a lack of intelligent thought with useless ridicule? Or are you just feeling saucy today.
 
ckparrothead said:
I don't think you can ignore the aspect of diminished risk.

I find the thinking that all players have an inherent value relative to one another in the draft regardless of risk appetite to be very two-dimensional. Risk is an element that has a heavy hand in draft valuation.

Let me give you an example. When you're picking top 5 in the draft, you're automatically on the hook for something like a $50-70 million total contract, with upwards of $20 to $40 million in guaranteed money. This makes the valuation of the top 5 players in this draft very heavily influenced by negative risk appetite. You can't afford to miss on that pick. If you do miss on it, it isn't that you just missed an opportunity to get a player in an area of the draft where 70% of them turn out to be good players...if you miss, you get suckered into a ton of deadweight money on your cap, negative press, pressure on your coaching staff to make the pick work (coaches have been fired on the assumption that another coach might get more out of a certain disappointing top pick), etc.

No longer are you charged with finding the best player, when you're picking that high. No longer are you charged with finding the guy that has a chance to really change the fortunes of your franchise for the better. Now you're focused on picking a safe player, because by god if you get a bust it is an absolute disaster.

Could Matt Ryan have gone #1 overall to us last year? Absolutely. He's a Quarterback, this is still a Quarterback's game and it is by far the most important position in the game. Getting a franchise Quarterback gives you six cylinders under the hood when everyone else is working with four. And on top of that, Matt Ryan graded as a good player. Ideal size and build, decent arm, ton of experience, good accuracy, a leader with all of the intangibles you could ask for, will push the ball up the field rather than kill your offense with a bunch of short throws, has the ability and accuracy to push the ball up the field. He was not only the best Quarterback in that draft, he compared favorably with other Quarterbacks in other drafts as well (he wasn't just the man with one eye in the land of the blind). Getting this player has probably singlely changed the fortunes of the Atlanta Falcons franchise for the next decade.

But, he wasn't the best pick Miami could have made at #1 overall in 2008. He wasn't the best pick because there was probably a 40% chance that he would be worth nothing even close to the amount of money that he got in his contract. When a Quarterback turns out not to be a franchise Quarterback, the dropoff in worth is tremendous. There was probably only a 10 or 20% (Tony Mandarich) chance that Jake Long would end up not worth close to the contract he was paid. This is because even if he didn't quite have the feet to protect a Quarterback's blind side, he could probably still move over to the right side and be a Vernon Carey...and Vernon Carey is a pretty well-paid man. Or he could move inside and be a Leonard Davis, and Leonard Davis is a pretty well-paid man as well.

Jake Long is a terrific player. He went to the Pro Bowl in his rookie year. You can't really be unhappy with him. But, getting him is not a move that singlehandedly changed the fortunes of the Miami franchise . That honor probably belongs to Chad Pennington and if it weren't for Chad Pennington, right now everyone would be saying that Miami made a terrible mistake passing on Matt Ryan for Jake Long.

But it was the right move because of the riskiness of the picks involved. Risk appetite affected the value of the draft prospects.

There is a level of risk aversion present in every draft pick. This is because the building and maintaining of an NFL franchise absolutely requires that you infuse the roster with multiple roster worthy young players every single year that have contracts that (if they survive cuts and live to make an impact) are automatically lower than their real worth.

If you don't come away from drafts with some impact starters and some decent subs, your franchise will fall as surely as Rome. Was it any coincidence that the Dolphins followed up four mediocre-to-bad-to-awful drafts from 2000-2003 with four mediocre-to-bad-to-awful seasons from 2004-2007? Absolutely not. Coming away from just one draft with no players is devastating and can have lasting effects for years. On the other hand, coming away from one draft with a bunch of really good players can set your team up to compete for many years.

So you can't ignore the diminished risk involved in acquiring an extra mid-2nd rounder basically for free. It affords you one of two options, IMO. You can look at the entire draft with an increased across-the-board risk appetite. Or, you can value the bulk of your draft picks normally, the way you are use to doing year-in and year-out, except you set aside one pick in which you re-assess the value of the players and take one as if the risk involved in grabbing a bust is significantly diminished (because it is).

The Dolphins chose the latter. The Dolphins didn't choose a player that is inherently less valuable than Clint Sintim. They chose a player than is inherently more risky than Clint Sintim, but that also holds the possibility of a higher reward. If you have a choice between one envelope that has a 50% chance of containing $10, and another envelope that has a 25% chance of containing $20, if you are a risk-averse chooser you choose the 50% chance every time. But, in a risk-neutral atmosphere your choice between the two should be random. Neither is worth more than the other. Both options are equally valuable. For one pick the Dolphins increased their appetite for risk, re-assessed the valuation of the players involved accordingly, and made their selection.
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Fantastic rebut, CK....I think you just missed what my point was. My point was not about the relative value of a player to another player. I was just saying that just because you get a gift of a draft pick (The Taylor) It does not give you the blank slate for a shot down the field. A 2nd is not a play-fake option...A 2nd is where you need to go to find starting, every-down contributers.

I never saw Jake Long as a LT Failure in the NFL. I'm not a draft guy.....I suck at these things in general, but, I know bad value when I see it. I know I got to watch lots of UM Football that year and, I was all over Jake Long. Before I bought a draft book...I was like...*Wow*...That guy is unreal.

At any rate...I ramble. My whole point here is that there is no pick that is somehow "found money". A 2nd, is a 2nd is a 2nd. You don't waste money and, you don't waste draft picks.
 
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