Russ Lande(former scout) on the rookies

[ckparrothead]

Fantastic rebut, CK....I think you just missed what my point was. My point was not about the relative value of a player to another player. I was just saying that just because you get a gift of a draft pick (The Taylor) It does not give you the blank slate for a shot down the field. A 2nd is not a play-fake option...A 2nd is where you need to go to find starting, every-down contributers.

I never saw Jake Long as a LT Failure in the NFL. I'm not a draft guy.....I suck at these things in general, but, I know bad value when I see it. I know I got to watch lots of UM Football that year and, I was all over Jake Long. Before I bought a draft book...I was like...*Wow*...That guy is unreal.

At any rate...I ramble. My whole point here is that there is no pick that is somehow "found money". A 2nd, is a 2nd is a 2nd. You don't waste money and, you don't waste draft picks.

And my point was, with no offense meant, that your line of thinking in this regard is pretty two-dimensional. Getting a pick for free, necessitates an increase in risk appetite across the board. As I said, you can do this across the board with all of the picks and make them all a little more risk-neutral (as opposed to the usual, risk-averse)...or you can just make one pick with a healthy risk appetite but value the rest accordingly.

If you don't adjust your risk appetite to reflect the addition of a free pick like that, then you are doing yourself a disservice. You're taking the envelope with a 50% chance at $10 and ignoring the envelope with a 25% chance of, let's say, $25.

 

[mikethewreck]

At any rate...I ramble. My whole point here is that there is no pick that is somehow "found money". A 2nd, is a 2nd is a 2nd. You don't waste money and, you don't waste draft picks.

I agree with you. I also see that the FO saw a four year starter in a major college conference who won 5 bowl games during his career (I'm including the Senior) against excellent competition. Someone who could take the Wildcat to another level and provide pressure on heir apparent Henne in a contrasting, not identical, way. Good accuracy (big factor for BP). I wonder if White was picked because of his differences with Henne, that he brings things to the table that Chad H doesn't. Suppose we run through a slate of O-line injuries and Henne and White are our 1/2. Maybe Pat gives us more chances to win those games with his escapability. Beck would have been a Henne clone as a back-up QB. White is DIFFERENT. Normally back-up QBs are non-factors in a game. White has the capability to make plays from that position. Is he worth the pick? None of us know. Folks who have played against him and watched him closely rave about the guy. I'm going to hold judgment until down the road. Let's see what the kid can do.

I do hope that our FO has more maturity than my kids do and not let "found money" or "found picks" go to waste. We haven't even seen him in TC, people. I don't want to burden White with expectations or write him off....yet.

 

[ckparrothead]

I agree with you. I also see that the FO saw a four year starter in a major college conference who won 5 bowl games during his career (I'm including the Senior) against excellent competition. Someone who could take the Wildcat to another level and provide pressure on heir apparent Henne in a contrasting, not identical, way. Good accuracy (big factor for BP). I wonder if White was picked because of his differences with Henne, that he brings things to the table that Chad H doesn't. Suppose we run through a slate of O-line injuries and Henne and White are our 1/2. Maybe Pat gives us more chances to win those games with his escapability. Beck would have been a Henne clone as a back-up QB. White is DIFFERENT. Normally back-up QBs are non-factors in a game. White has the capability to make plays from that position. Is he worth the pick? None of us know. Folks who have played against him and watched him closely rave about the guy. I'm going to hold judgment until down the road. Let's see what the kid can do.

I do hope that our FO has more maturity than my kids do and not let "found money" or "found picks" go to waste. We haven't even seen him in TC, people. I don't want to burden White with expectations or write him off....yet.

From the sound of it, your kids have the potential to be gifted economists.

 

[GoonBoss]

And my point was, with no offense meant, that your line of thinking in this regard is pretty two-dimensional. Getting a pick for free, necessitates an increase in risk appetite across the board. As I said, you can do this across the board with all of the picks and make them all a little more risk-neutral (as opposed to the usual, risk-averse)...or you can just make one pick with a healthy risk appetite but value the rest accordingly.

If you don't adjust your risk appetite to reflect the addition of a free pick like that, then you are doing yourself a disservice. You're taking the envelope with a 50% chance at $10 and ignoring the envelope with a 25% chance of, let's say, $25.

CK, I take absolutely no offense. I respect your position.

10.00 is 10.00. If you find 10.00 on the ground....It's still 10.00. It does not inherently become 11.00 0r 9.00 because it was found on the ground.

I respect that you like the White pick. Most do. I don't.

Value is value is value. Because you find a 10 bucks on the ground, does not devalue the 10 bucks.

We wasted a good pick on Pat White. That's really what this is.

 

[mikethewreck]

We wasted a good pick on Pat White. That's really what this is.

In 3 years I might agree wholeheartedly with you. Time will tell. I do understand how this pick can cause head-scratching. I know the FO spends a lot more time looking at players than I do and I also know that they don't always get it right.

 

[ckparrothead]

CK, I take absolutely no offense. I respect your position.

10.00 is 10.00. If you find 10.00 on the ground....It's still 10.00. It does not inherently become 11.00 0r 9.00 because it was found on the ground.

I respect that you like the White pick. Most do. I don't.

Value is value is value. Because you find a 10 bucks on the ground, does not devalue the 10 bucks.

We wasted a good pick on Pat White. That's really what this is.

It's what you DO with the $10 that reflects your appetite for risk. Draft prospects inherently hold risk, and must be valued against one another accordingly. There's no getting around that.

 

[72champagne]

..Getting a pick for free, necessitates an increase in risk appetite across the board....

Perhaps this works for you picking ideas... occasionally. But it's professional football we're talkin about. Paying the contract ain't free. Filling a roster spot ain't free. The very LAST thing a pick necessitates while you're sitting on the clock is thinking about how you GOT the pick or how you got any OTHER pick.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Fantastic rebut, CK....I think you just missed what my point was. My point was not about the relative value of a player to another player. I was just saying that just because you get a gift of a draft pick (The Taylor) It does not give you the blank slate for a shot down the field. A 2nd is not a play-fake option...A 2nd is where you need to go to find starting, every-down contributers.

I never saw Jake Long as a LT Failure in the NFL. I'm not a draft guy.....I suck at these things in general, but, I know bad value when I see it. I know I got to watch lots of UM Football that year and, I was all over Jake Long. Before I bought a draft book...I was like...*Wow*...That guy is unreal.

At any rate...I ramble. My whole point here is that there is no pick that is somehow "found money". A 2nd, is a 2nd is a 2nd. You don't waste money and, you don't waste draft picks.

I can certainly see the angle that CK is trying to achieve here....and I agree with a lot of it....but I still have to agree with you again Goon when you get right down to it....

It doesn't change the "fundamental" aspect of using a 2nd round draft pick you acquired in a trade as "more worth the risk" so to speak...than any other 2nd round draft pick...especially in the 2nd year of a rebuild...when you're still trying to sort your offensive line out...and your defense...

..and again...I just don't believe that these guys used CK's philosophy in reguards to the drafting of Pat White....

However, I completely agree with CK's point that most competent front offices approach picking in the top 5 of the draft as more less...."It's not neccessary that we have to hit a home run with this pick....but it IS NECESSARRY that we don't strike out with it"....thus why I've mentioned previously numerous times that even Bill Parcells still learns from his past mistakes....and I believe that those mistakes played a huge factor in the selection of Jake Long with the #1 overall pick...

Because Jake Long wasn't the "clear cut", best player in the draft...but he was the "safest" pick...and worse case scenario was that he would end up being a pro bowl caliber right tackle...they made a good pick....but I never subscribed to the theory that he was the ONLY right pick...

I was one of the few that was 99% sold on Matt Ryan long before the draft was ever even a discussion...and felt that he was THE GUY at QB worth Miami taking that huge risk on...and I wanted to see him in Miami....so I guess I'll forever be against passing him up...even if I tried to convince myself not to be....probably because I was also 99% sold that John Beck wasn't THE GUY....

Furthermore, I think Pennington gets a little too much credit for the "turning around the franchise"....at least in the long run....did he do it in the short term? Yes...but I don't believe it's in the way that most Dolphin fans think he did...

I think Pennington's biggest long term contribution to the future fortunes of the team is in the fact that he's just good enough (when healthy) that he allows for the quarterback that IS the heir apparent to be fully ****ed and loaded when it's his time to step in there...because I don't believe that his body has enough years left (even if his arm strength wasn't a liability) to surround him with enough talent to exploit the very small holes in the elite caliber defenses you'll have to march through in the playoffs in order to hoist the Lombardi Trophy....

 

[mikethewreck]

The appetite for risk is a function of your economic standing. A billionaire can afford to invest in high risk high reward schemes because if it doesn't work out it's not the end of the world. I sense a lot of people thinking that the Dolphins are not "rich" enough to be gambling with a second round pick instead of filling spots where we still have apparent need (unless the FO believes we are not as needy as we think we are in those spots like ILB and NT and OG).

 

[GoonBoss]

It's what you DO with the $10 that reflects your appetite for risk. Draft prospects inherently hold risk, and must be valued against one another accordingly. There's no getting around that.

Certainly this is true. Appetite for risk is not without it's risk. Why is a 2nd round pick not a 2nd round pick though?

All my point was that, you are going to draft who you will draft. If you are going to take a shot downfield, man...Take that shot then! I may or may not be up for that. Why do you not take that big shot every draft day, as opposed to taking it if you get an additional pick?

Value is value is value.

 

[GoonBoss]

The appetite for risk is a function of your economic standing. A billionaire can afford to invest in high risk high reward schemes because if it doesn't work out it's not the end of the world. I sense a lot of people thinking that the Dolphins are not "rich" enough to be gambling with a second round pick instead of filling spots where we still have apparent need (unless the FO believes we are not as needy as we think we are in those spots like ILB and NT and OG).

Very well stated sir.

 

[mikethewreck]

Unfortunately a lot of poor people spend what little money they have on the lottery when the odds are prohibitively against them. Those that win often end up in worse shape than before because they get accustomed to a high lifestyle the finite winnings cannot support. I hope that's not what we did (buy a long-shot ticket).

How you analyze and manage risk determines to a great extent your success and failure in life. So far I have completely stunk up assessing marital risk.

 

[phintim]

Ok lets talk about the Pat White pick and how bad or good it was. Everyone is focused on Pat White because of the Wildcat instead of Pat White the QB. In all honesty I was not overly impressed with the White pick but after mini camp I have looked at it differently. First Bill P cut John Beck whose style just did not fit the Dolphins so we know that John Beck was not in any long term plans for the phins.
So now with Pat White signed we have at least a projected backup QB for next year that we picked up this year. Look at it this way if Chad P is not on the team next year all you have is Chad H which is not all that bad hopefully unless Chad H were to go down with an injury. I really do not see Chad P hanging around as a backup QB next year and I believe that Parcells agrees. So what are our options next year for a backup QB a retread and a rookie. Sporano and Ireland have both stated that years 3 and 4 is when they expect the phins to be coming around and they certainly do not want to gamble and have some washed up QB and or rookie QB leading the team those years. Pat White gets a year of seasoning this year play behing the Chads and the phins get an insurance policy for the future. Sure he may get in on some wild cat plays this year and if he does that is gravy but I really do not beleive that is why he was picked. He was picked as a QB to push Henne before Henne is the QB. Next year is Henne's year but they are not just going to give it to him either and if they were to spend a 2nd on a QB after Chad Henne was the starter that would in many books be stating that they were not happy with Chad H. and start a controversy. Jimmy Johnson usually traded down but ocassionaly would trade up giving up a higher round pick in the draft the following year (Patrick Sutain comes to mind) with the idea that the player he was getting this year in the 2nd round with NFL expereince would be worth a 1st round the following year. I beleive they viewed Pat White as a possible 3rd round pick but his future value to the team was 2nd round value in next years draft. He fits a need as a backup QB with Chadd P probably gone and a "possible" value this year in some wild cat plays that will give him some experience. I have to ask on how many NFL teams do 2 QBs get to play in a game. Rarely if any and next year especailly we will have the opportunity to make that happen. So instead of some guy carrying a clipbaord on the sideline like most teams our 2nd stirng QB might actually have game day value. That is huge in itself.

 

[PhinsTD]

I believe another problem many here see, is that we are not getting a 25% chance at $25, but rather getting a 25% chance at $10. Many people cannot see Pat White as ever being a full-time QB, and therefore his long-term value is not as high as said CK.

Personally, I'm going to hope he can add a lot of value in the Wildcat etc. but do not see how Pat White would ever pay on that $25. What role can he serve to pay that higher return?

Honestly, I'm not as upset at the pick because we were able to get a better pick later on, that might end up being a starter later on. There weren't a ton of players there that fit our scheme, and would have competed for much more playing time this year than White. Michael Johnson had the $25 upside, but also had a lower than 50% chance at the $10. It all boiled down to too small of a role for that high of a pick, but the risk averse analogy makes perfect sense. I just don't really agree with the dream scenario for Pat White, who will NEVER be a starting QB in the NFL IMHO.

 

[Mulverizer19]

All very well argued points. I'm impressed. I'm going to have to agree with Goon though, I don't think it matters how you got the pick. You should treat it as any other pick you would have had and go with the best option for your team. Many may believe that Pat White was the best option with that pick, however, I am not a fan and would have much rather seen Connor Barwin taken with that pick. I was pretty bummed.