Ryan Tannehill Analytics Profile Video.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Jerrysanders, Jul 4, 2017.

  1. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    200 years no, sample size is the number of observations included (QBs in this case) and again were talking about 1969 so QBs with only a 3 year career will be included. Actually 4 years can show normalization of all of those crucial factors depending on the sample size, (bigger sample more qbs with Tannehills situation) the author is reserving judgement on Tannehill for this year which will be his 6th season.
     
  2. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Adjusted Yards per attempt.
     
  3. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113

    As WildBill3 pointed out for YPA, it's an attribute and result of the system and how the offense performs within in it. And just like YPA isn't an individual statistic to the QB, that case is also true for AYA. Reason being, AYA faults or assigns the QB for every sack and that's a completely inaccurate assessment.
     
    rent this space likes this.
  4. SCLSU Mud Dogs

    SCLSU Mud Dogs foos-ball is the devil! Donator

    Joined:
    Mar 2007
    Messages:
    8,453
    Likes Received:
    769
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Wait a second, are you suggesting that the offensive line, the unit responsible for protecting the quarterback, is responsible for 1 OR MORE of the 200 sacks when Tannehill was quarterback? Utter blasphemy!
     
    fin415 and Sons Of Shula like this.
  5. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Yes A/YA includes
    An advanced statistic in football that quantifies the contributions of a quarterbacks passing game by including five key passing statistics;
    - passing yards
    - passing touchdowns
    - interceptions thrown
    - times sacked
    - yards lost to being sacked.

    Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt - ANY/A = (Passing Yards + 20 * Passing Touchdowns – 45 * Interceptions – Sack Yards Lost)/(Pass Attempts plus Sacks)
    per https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt-statistics/2016/

    https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-passing-yards-per-attempt-statistics/2016/
     
  6. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113
    How the **** is "times sacked" and yards lost to being sacked" a key passing statistic assigned to the QB?

    Please don't attempt to answer. It's a rhetorical question with the obvious conclusion of "It's not".
     
    miamiron likes this.
  7. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Um Sacks play such a small percentage in the formula its not even worth mentioning, Adjusted net yards per attempt has a huge correlation with points scored and whether you like the stat or hate it the facts still remain.
     
  8. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113

    So what's the point then?

    "Interceptions thrown" is also a subjective statistic which can only be determined properly by film and who is truly at fault.

    So now this "fabulous" indicator and metric for QBs simply hinges on passing yards and touchdowns. Yet, lo and behold, passing yards can also be enhanced or hindered by OC scheme.

    All in all, it's all worthless piles of numbers without film study and proper context that is extracted from tape.
     
    rent this space likes this.
  9. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I was with u on the Sacks but no Interceptions are an Extremely good indicator of a QB play. Data proves Elite QBs throw fewer Interceptions, the law of averages normalize interceptions thrown due to errors done by wr etc, thats something every QB deals with.
     
  10. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113

    Some more than others. Depends on if the offense has a new coach, new OC, breaking in a new scheme(s), getting familiar with new receiver(s). It doesn't balance out for QBs who have had the luxury to have played with the same coaches, schemes, and players for a particularly longer period of time.

    And here you are talking about averages yet use "elite" for comparison which is extremely rare and certainly not the norm with the exception of 2 to 3, maybe 4 organizations out of 32 who happen-chance to land one every few decades or so.
     
    lurking and SCLSU Mud Dogs like this.
  11. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Sound logic, u might be on to something with that but the farther you move up the scale from above average ,very good, to elite the smaller significance those have on overall QB production. Tannehills production is above average in some stats and just average in key stats like TD/INT.

    Yes but its not only that, the other organizations have QBs they believe have the potential to become elite in the future and the ones that don't are constantly looking to replace their below average, average or even above average QBs the Chiefs and the Redskins are a prime examples of this. Another concerning fact is that Tannehill's production hasn't drastically increased under Gase which i believe is a knock on Gase.
     
  12. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Jan 2008
    Messages:
    5,749
    Likes Received:
    171
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I blame this thread solely on the emergence of fantasy football and sports betting. Where the football game merges with with sidegames, mostly odds driven. Sharp players understand the difference, amateurs do not. Even Awsi is guilty of this.

    Analytics are very useful in a odds driven setting where you benefit from volume and can safely disregard anomalies. Simply put, I need to be right roughly 60% of the time to make a profit, run your stats and analytics and take your profits... THE 40% of the time that Im wrong is just normal variance.

    You just cant do this in a single argument about a particular player.... Well you can but but the over-simplicity of your argument is going to get crushed by people who can actually explain to you why all of your stats happened and how some/most of them are useless in that particular case...

    There are now a thousand sites/blogs/articles about analytics and how you can become a millionnaire playing DFS or sports betting, and some people seem to misunderstand the differences between winning at an odds driven game with a ****load of 2.5% wins and a specific argument about a specific player...

    Just my 2 cents...
     
  13. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Fantasy driven analytics is different from win outcomes predicator Analytics. Kirk Cousins is a Elite in Fantasy Leagues but in these type of analytics he's just above average.
     
  14. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113
    After the bye week it significantly increased.

    It also takes about 8 weeks for an offense to settle and become comfortable in a new system. By no mistake, our offensive completion percentage was 71% during weeks 9-13 and in 3 of those 5 games had a passer rating of 130.6, 130.6, and 124.0.
     
    fin415, Travis34 and fishfanmiami like this.
  15. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Jan 2008
    Messages:
    5,749
    Likes Received:
    171
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Explain to me how win outcomes predictator functions without copy pasting it from an outside source and then we'll talk... Till then Im not wasting my time with you...
     
    miami365 likes this.
  16. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    All of those were his highest marks for the 2016 season and I see u didn't mention the Ravens game where he had a 63 Qb rating. I would love for Tannehill just to have a slightly above average TD/INT. I'm not sold on Gase, he has shown me plenty of red flags being an offensive guru and a talent evaluator.
     
  17. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    What's wrong did you lose your money playing in a fantasy league and now you've decided to go on a tirade against all analytics smh . Please don't waste your time leave the thread.
     
  18. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113

    Of course those were where the highest marks of the season. It correlates with the time period for an offense to adjust to a new system.

    The completion percentage still includes the Ravens game, but overall that was an abysmal game for the entire team and the Raven's kicked our *** in every phase.

    Out of honest curiosity, what are the red flags you've seen from Gase on offense?
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
    Jerrysanders likes this.
  19. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    As far as Offensive Philosphy goes there's not many, I'm fan of Mesh Concepts but Im meh on some of the west coast spacing implements my biggest issue would be play calling which is much more important than offensive scheme philosophy, at the NFL level the game is a chess match between coordinators many philosophies can win its just who utilizies their tools (Lazors offensive philosophy was not bad at all) the best and exposes the other teams weakness the best. I don't see the type of jump in Tannehill's play the way Mcvay improved Cousins play, I firmly believe great coordinators improve QB play. I plan on making a thread on Gase's free agency moves, drafting, mismanagment of players, personnel hiring decision. and how we beat up on the weakest teams (weakest divisions) in the NFL and how 2016 might of been an outlier season. 2017 will be the real test for Gase.
     
    Sons Of Shula likes this.
  20. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Very good points all around. 2017 will be a great test on Gase's coaching abilities. I happen to agree and have similar concerns about the subjects you mentioned. One in particular is the high amount of close games we won is an indicator that we will slump this coming season.

    Though I have to say I vehemently disagree with what you said about Lazor. He was an awful OC. He stole a partial playbook from Kelly and never improved on any of it. Here's a thread on that subject along with a mesh play I broke down of Lazor's and it's deficiencies in post #4.

    Link: Chip Kelly (Bill Lazor) and the Vanishing Offense
     
  21. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Good Read.

    I completely agree, Lazor was a horrible OC but I'm saying his Offensive philosophy wasn't horrible( I'm biased towards tempo and exploiting mismatches) even if it was a partial playbook, Lazor completely elevated the offense at Virginia where it was a pro style offense, He just sucked due to bad play calling and game management. The System could of worked with a decent Coordinator that won't handicap Tanny.
     
  22. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    No matter what anyone tells you, the Miami Dolphins overachieved last season.

    Their “expected wins,” a metric based on point differential (a better indicator of strength than record), was 7.6 wins and they had the AFC’s third easiest schedule, per Football Reference. They were the 17th best overall team last year, per Football Outsiders’efficiency ratings.

    So despite the 10-6 record Miami was the quintessential average football team.

    While I think the over/under of 7.5 wins may be a hair low, we also must keep in mind their schedule in 2017 appears to be unfavorable. This is before considering the fact they punted another home game, as they’ll “host” the Saints in London in Week 4.

    http://slicemiami.com/2017/05/01/miami-dolphins-over-under-vegas/

    Vegas is more optimistic than I am on us being 8-8,Unless Tanny plays Elite in 2017 its going to be a long season.
     
  23. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Cheers Jerrysanders. It's been a pleasure discussing and debating football with you. I'll catch ya later. :thumbsup
     
    Jerrysanders likes this.
  24. LoneStarPhin

    LoneStarPhin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2013
    Messages:
    400
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Jerry Sanders..... Never have so few argued so long against so many with so little ammo.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 7, 2017
  25. Digital

    Digital Starter

    Joined:
    Feb 2008
    Messages:
    5,473
    Likes Received:
    977
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Assuming those adjustments are taking in things like ... down and distanace, score, etc. But the raw A/YA stat doesn't really do that to a large degree, so those adjustments aren't always telling. Again, people may have differing opinions, but if we are going to use one stat only, I'd go with Y/A. I do agree that A/YA is also a decent metric if you are only using one stat. But doubling down on both as two of your metrics is not wise. They are essentially trying to capture the same thing. In a weighted analysis it would be like weighting that metric twice as heavily but using two different analytical approaches to the same data capture.

    The Author does the same thing by mentioning both QB Rating and QBR. Anyone with strong analytical background knows that those are not the best metrics for judging QB's, and the reasons are the ones I've stated in multiple posts now so I'll not be redundant. But his analysis is kinda like looking at a baseball batter and only gauging his average and home runs vs. left handed pitching, then doubling both of those. Its simply not enough information to determine whether the batter is an effective against the majority of the pitchers he faces. It doesn't even consider large parts of his game (like play vs. right handers). Doubling down on both Y/A AND A/YA is an extremely narrow analysis. Compounding that by doubling down on two less effective metrics like QB Rating and QBR, it simply isn't nearly as effective as he could have been. It compounds the narrow analysis.
     
    lurking likes this.
  26. Digital

    Digital Starter

    Joined:
    Feb 2008
    Messages:
    5,473
    Likes Received:
    977
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No, the point of discussion is the equality of the OL. We aren't talking about nearly enough time to normalize.

    When the Author mistakenly equates all OL as equal, he makes a fatal flaw in analysis. He incorrectly assumes it is normalized. As I mentioned, given the career of offensive linemen and the frequency with which teams change their OL, 4 years is not nearly enough to expect a normalization. More importantly, we have lots of metrics to determine whether there actually HAS BEEN comparable performance, and the Author ignores them in favor of his biased generalization. The 200 years does not represent how many throws Tannehill makes ... obviously, as the contributing factor that is making such a dramatic difference is the Offensive Line. What we want to normalize is the OL performance.

    Here's how it works. When you do an analysis where you assume that all other variables are held constant, you can do either of two things: 1) Bury your head in the sand and just assume it's all good even if you know that not to be true, or 2) Use a period of time where those data points normalize. The author chose the first option, which is to mis-represent the facts about the OL in front of Tannehill and act as if it had no effect on Tannehill's play. This is a mistake by the Author that fundamentally taints his attempted analysis.

    It's just bad analytics. If you are not going to evaluate it--and there are a lot of available metrics to use to evaluate it--then you are obligated to mention that you didn't consider it and at least mention that it can have a significant impact on your analysis. But then again, it doesn't make the Author look professional, so he didn't do it.

    Hey, like whatever you like man. But calling this analytics is kinda like calling the Browns a good NFL team ... you can love 'em all you like, but they are not a shining example of a good NFL team. That's my $0.02.
     
    Sons Of Shula and lurking like this.
  27. Eesti

    Eesti Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 2008
    Messages:
    3,056
    Likes Received:
    299
    Trophy Points:
    83
    The Miami Dolphins overachieved last year all while missing a Pro Bowl safety, 2 starting linebackers, starting DT, a starting CB, s starting RB, a starting QB and center...all while learning two brand new systems with a brand new coaching staff and rookie head coach ? Is this news? LOL
     
    miami365 and fin415 like this.
  28. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Sep 2011
    Messages:
    24,771
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The difference between touchdown percentage and interception percentage is the best predictor of team success in the NFL since 2004. Better than passer rating, better than yards per pass attempt, and better than (yes), even A/YA. At least it was the last time I checked, in 2015. Football is about scoring points and preventing the opposing team from scoring points. That much is pretty stupidly obvious.

    And I'll tell you something about ALL of these statistics: outside of an extreme few fringe cases, quarterbacks perform best in these efficiency statistics when they are in balanced offenses working with a competent rushing attack.

    When you can run the football, you pressure and fatigue the opposing pass rush. You create more favorable passing situations. You create a more dangerous play-action game. You keep the opposing team guessing, you wear them down, and you reduce the number of risks you have to take throwing the football.

    That's why teams with strong running games usually have quarterbacks who throw a high percentage of touchdowns (they throw the ball less while moving downfield), they produce a higher yards per pass attempt (more favorable down and distance, more defenders stacked on the run), and they get sacked less frequently (less pass rush opportunities for the opposition).

    As Ren so rightly points out in this thread. analytical observation is a tool. You observe quantifiable data points and see how they trend and if they match up with other data sets you have collected in the past. When you take analytics and use it to try to make proclamations like "Player X is elite," you're not just missing the boat, you're missing the entire goddamn sea.
     
  29. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    213
    Trophy Points:
    63
    TD/Int ratio for QBs is the no 1 predictor of wins for NFL teams, which is the reason the author uses that as his number 1 stat metric.
     
  30. Sherif

    Sherif Pro Bowler

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    4,662
    Likes Received:
    63
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Thanks for the post; The statistics were not interesting or meaningful but a good post for the offseason. I felt the guy had an agenda as indicated by digital. Line charts of Tannehill's progression would have been helpful to see a trend and would have been easy to produce. Clearly the data showed improvement in 14 and 16 with a dip in 15 but the overall line trend would have been upward. He damns T'hill with the Int/ TD and the ANY/A ratio but there should have been a deeper dive into each Int if you are going to ding him with a minus * 45 ratio per Int. Perception may be that T'hills YPA is low but statistics show otherwise.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt
     
  31. tazthenomad

    tazthenomad FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    May 2010
    Messages:
    1,344
    Likes Received:
    63
    Trophy Points:
    48
    This is the basic fallacy in your use of this statistical method. It is a predictor ONLY if you are saying that the player is not changing.

    The correct tools for showing changes from a past established by averages is a "run chart" which shows trends and the based performance deviating from means and using established rules like times above or below the average, position by standard deviation, etc.
     
  32. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Sep 2011
    Messages:
    24,771
    Likes Received:
    2,270
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Please cite your source. I compile my own data, and my sample was only for one specific ten year period. And my conclusion was based on the rate differential, not volume statistics.
     
  33. Gsmack_42

    Gsmack_42 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2009
    Messages:
    902
    Likes Received:
    141
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Except in 2015 where Manning had more int than TD, and still won the Super Bowl.
     
  34. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Hammered Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Nov 2013
    Messages:
    19,567
    Likes Received:
    3,372
    Trophy Points:
    113

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2017
  35. finsfan43

    finsfan43 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Apr 2015
    Messages:
    560
    Likes Received:
    21
    Trophy Points:
    18
    So Brett Favre and EIi Manning should not have won Super Bowls. Here are Int\TD's. By your logic with that ratio of Int\TD's being so high they should not have won many games or Super Bowls?

    Brett Favre Int\TD 1 Super bowl Win
    336\508

    Eli Manning 215\320 2 Superbowl Wins

    Ryan Tannehill 66\106 Hopefully multiple - But he should never every win if the int\TD ratio is high..Oh wait, maybe just maybe there are other factors involved. Such as Oline play, COACHING (Play Calling), WR tipping passes. A D that sucks.

    If a QB only throws 1 INT a game and the offense scores 28 points and say 3 are thrown by the QB so it is a 1\3 ratio and the D gives up 31, how is the QB INT\TD ratio even a valid point?


    #QBWINZ?
     
    Gsmack_42 likes this.

Share This Page