Second day left tackle prospects

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by Austin Tatious, Apr 13, 2013.

  1. Austin Tatious

    Austin Tatious Starter

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    Have you guys done work on the second day LT prospects? I am thinking of:

    Menelik Watson
    Armstead
    Pugh
    K Long
    Brennan Williams

    How are you guys breaking them down?

    I am intrigued by Kyle Long. His dad and brother say he is the best athlete of the bunch. His arm length doesn't seem great but maybe he can make up for it with his movement skills? Very inexperienced. High risk/reward.

    Pugh just seems like a guard to me, although he also moves well.

    Armstead. Coming from Pine Bluff, he will likely need an adjustment period despite his off-the-charts athleticism.

    Brennan Williams looks the part. Intriguing prospect.

    Anyone in favor of Miami holding back on trading up for one of the Big 3 and rolling with one of these guys on day 2? Miami needs more pieces and depth everywhere. Trading up for a LT, and blowing picks in the process, may not be the way to go.
     
  2. normaniii

    normaniii A True Fan

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    Whatever way we go, I wont be happy if we trade up. I like Kyle Long. Think he would be ideal RT in a ZBS.
     
  3. finfan54

    finfan54 A True Fan Donator

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    Pugh can play LT day one. The obvious thing is the arms speaking long term so he can play there, but wouldnt be ideal.

    The others will not go on any team and play LT unless they are somewhat desperate. Getting used to the NFL is one thing. Thrown to the wolves at LT is another.

    There are only 3 sure things at LT who could start day one. Henceforth, the need to go up and get one.
     
  4. DKphin

    DKphin A True Fan Donator

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    I think his arm length is way over blown. Yes, you have to be a little concerned with the DL getting into him, but I think his other attributes way out weigh this concern. I disagree that a selection of KL is desperation. You have got to like his pedigree. Just because he is Howie's son and Chris's brother doesn't definitely ensure success, but it definitely helps. Also I think he moves pretty well.
     
  5. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Kyle longs a guard in the pros.
     
  6. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    Well I think it's iffy to look at Justin Pugh as a 2nd day prospect, because there's a lot of teams that would take him at the bottom of the 1st. His short arms aren't really much shorter than the average tackle, and he's technically sound. He has good movement skills and projects to be someone who could start right away and be significantly better than Jonathan Martin. To me, he's the clear #1 of those guys.

    Terron Armstead is the classic high ceiling guy who lacks experience. He hasn't played at the highest level, he's not refined in his technique, but he has the physical tools. Probably will become a good OT in time, but whether that's season 1 or season 5 is the real question. Like him, but doesn't really fit for us who needs an OT and an OG right now. He'll be taken in the 2nd or 3rd.

    Menalik Watson is one of those guys who people disagree about when they assess him. On tape he appears to have athletic ability, but is raw. Testing him he appears not to have athletic ability. I've never been a believer in Watson.

    Kyle Long definitely looks the part. But he is both raw and over-age, so how many productive years will you have, and how long do you have to wait to get them? IMHO, his draft stock will drop because of the age and need for experience, but the kid is very athletic like Armstead, has the NFL pedigree and work ethic, and looks like he will become a sure-fire quality player at some point. He may get over-drafted by a team that can wait on him or a team with a desperate need for an OT (like Arizona or San Diego), but to me, he's a 3rd rounder because he'll take a year or two to develop and then have less years of production. But, high ceiling, great tools, and all the needed ingredients to be very good. Less risky bet than Armstead, but will likely give you less years of production.

    Brennan Williams looks like a tier down from those other guys to me. He can become a solid NFL tackle, but likely a RT. I'd throw him into the mid-round bucket with guys like Reid Fragel, whom I know we've met with and probably are looking to pluck in the 4th-7th to try at RT.

    Mayock and a bunch of analysts talk about how this is a great OT draft, but I'm not really convinced of that. Sure, the top 3 are all good prospects, and this group you're highlighting have potential as well, but it's not really a deep group. If you want a LT, grab one of Joeckel, Fisher or Johnson. Otherwise it's a bit of rolling the dice. Fluker, Watson, Williams and the rest are not LT's in my eyes. Armstead and Long are projections, and the team that takes them will likely have to live with some lumps the first couple of years as they develop them. Pugh is solid, ready to go day 1, and can legitimately play either tackle or guard, but not really elite.
     
  7. Twitches Brew

    Twitches Brew A True Fan

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    I can't tell Tackles apart to add anything there.

    But I will say that I'm an advocate of taking two tackles between rds 2-4. Assuming we don't take one at 12, I see doubling-up as a necessity here given that we currently have one starting tackle and even he has questions. Give ourselves 3 young mid-round talents from whom we can find a RT/LT combo that works. Strength in numbers to complete the OL unit, find a mix that'll get the job done.
     
  8. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    B/t I think the miami target here other than lane Johnson is menelik Watson. Watch out at pick #42. I am not a fan of this guy but if he's there when we come on the clock with our 2nd pick I'm gonna hold my breath this isn't the card
     
  9. Ruckus45

    Ruckus45 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I do think Pugh's arm length matters. Sure you can overcome it with smarts and technique but look at this:

    Team- Left tackle Arm length -Sacks
    allowed -Starts - Sacks per game
    Denver Broncos Ryan Clady 36 3/4 0.5 16 0.03
    Philadelphia Eagles Tra Thomas 36 1/2 2 16 0.13
    Dallas Cowboys Flozell Adams 36 1/2 7.25 16 0.45
    St. Louis Rams Orlando Pace 36 1/4 2 14 0.14 New York Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson 36 1/4 4 16 0.25
    Indianapolis Colts Tony Ugoh 36 3 12 0.25
    Baltimore Ravens Jared Gaither 36 3 15 0.20
    Miami Dolphins Jake Long 35 3/4 2.5 16 0.16
    San Diego Chargers Marcus McNeill 35 1/2 3 14 0.21
    Minnesota Vikings Bryant McKinnie 35 1/2 4 12 0.33
    Pittsburgh Steelers Max Starks 35 1/2 4 11 0.36
    Kansas City Chiefs Branden Albert 35 1/2 4.5 15 0.30
    New Orleans Saints Jammal Brown 34 3/4 3 15 0.20
    Cincinnati Bengals Levi Jones 34 3/4 5.5 10 0.55
    Jacksonville Jaguars Khalif Barnes 34 3/4 7.5 16 0.47
    Seattle Seahawks Walter Jones 34 1/2 3.5 12 0.29
    Oakland Raiders Kwame Harris 34 1/4 7.5 11 0.68
    San Francisco ***** Joe Staley 34 1/4 8.5 16 0.53
    Houston Texans Duane Brown 34 1/4 11.5 16 0.72
    Arizona Cardinals Mike Gandy 34 6.25 16 0.39
    Chicago Bears John St. Clair 34 9.25 16 0.58
    Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas 33 3/4 4.5 16 0.28
    New York Giants David Diehl 33 3/4 6.5 16 0.41
    Washington Redskins Chris Samuels 33 1/2 3 12 0.25
    New England Patriots Matt Light 33 1/2 7.5 16 0.47
    Carolina Panthers Jordan Gross 33 1/4 3 15 0.20
    Buffalo Bills Jason Peters 33 1/8 11.5 13 0.88
    Green Bay Packers Chad Clifton 33 7.5 15 0.50
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers Donald Penn 33 8.5 16 0.53
    Atlanta Falcons Sam Baker 32 3/4 1 5 0.20
    Detroit Lions Jeff Backus 32 1/2 9.25 16 0.58
    Tennessee Titans Michael Roos 32 1/4 1 16 0.06


    Except for Michael Roos the average sacks per game goes up a little per inch. So statistically it can be important.

    I like Armstead for upside and athleticism, but not sure he is a day one starter. Not sure of his arm length
     
  10. Austin Tatious

    Austin Tatious Starter

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    Great discussion.

    According to WalterFootball.com (http://walterfootball.com/draft2013OT.php), here are some arm lengths:

    Armstead 33 5/8
    B Williams 34.08
    Justin Pugh 31.5
    K Long 32 1/8
    M Watson 34.08

    By way of comparison to the first rounders:
    Fluker 36 3/8 (freakish)
    L Johnson 35
    Joeckel 34.28
    Fisher 34

    Reid Fragel 33.08
    Luke Marquardt 34.48

    Obviously, there is much more to it than arm length. But is still an important metric.

    Pugh and K Long seem to stick out with their short arms relative to the NFL prototype.
     
  11. Ruckus45

    Ruckus45 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Well I just became a bigger fan of Fluker-L Johnson makes the cut too. The statistical drop off seems to be under 35in.
     
  12. fishbanger

    fishbanger Phin fan since 1970!

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    M. Watson may not be a second round pick.
     
  13. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Under 32 inches arm length is usually a red flag with tackles. Pughs feet can make up for that IMO but ideally you draft him as a left guard with swing tackle versatility
     
  14. rrrrphin

    rrrrphin Scout Team

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    Wasn't Pugh getting abused continuously at the senior bowl?
     

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