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Slimm's 2016 Quarterbacks (Underclassman)

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Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ
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** indicates RS sophomore





1. Jared Goff / California / 6'4", 205 (Slight frame and must add weight. Can flat out sling it)

2. Paxton Lynch / Memphis / 6'6", 225

3. Gunner Kiel / Cincinnati / 6'4", 208

1410584715000-UC-Toledo-19.jpg



4. J.T. Barrett** / Ohio St. / 6'1", 222

5. Cardale Jones / Ohio St. / 6'5", 250 (Great physical tools. Doesn't go through progressions at this point. Inexperienced....only 3 games under his belt. One read and take off at this stage. Did a good job of turning around and handing it off to Ezekiel Elliott and riding him to a national title)

6. Christian Hackenberg / Penn St. / 6'4", 234 (Prototype NFL quarterback, but has to improve footwork. Struggles with ball placement....not an accurate passer. Ball isn't where I like to see it even on passes that he completes. Generally makes good decisions though)

7. Patrick Mahomes / Texas Tech / 6'3", 219

8. Malik Zaire** / Notre Dame / 6'0", 208

8. Baker Mayfield / Oklahoma / 6'1", 210

9. Tommy Armstrong / Nebraska / 6'1", 220

10. Justin Holman / UCF / 6'4", 208

11. Chad Kelly / Ole Miss / 6'2", 215

12. Anu Solomon** / Arizona / 6'2", 198

13. Sefo Liufau / Colorado / 6'4", 225

14. Cooper Rush / Central Michigan / 6'3", 216

15. Wes Lunt / Illinois / 6'4", 215

16. Patrick Towles / Kentucky / 6'5", 236

17. Seth Russell / Baylor / 6'3", 205

18. Nick Mullens / Southern Miss / 6'1", 206 (Tough SOB)

19. Skyler Howard / West Virginia / 6'0", 203

20. Dane Evans / Tulsa / 6'1", 218

21. Matt Davis / SMU / 6'0", 215

t22. Matt Johns / Virginia / 6'4", 215

t22. Jeremy Johnson / Auburn / 6'5", 230

23. Chad Voytik / Pittsburgh / 6'1", 210

Pitt-Voytik.jpg



24. Maty Mauk / Missouri / 6'0", 201

25. C.J. Beathard / Iowa / 6'2", 203

26. Tyler Jones / Texas St. / 6'2", 205

27. Zach Terrell / Western Michigan / 6'1", 210

28. Nick Arbuckle / Georgia St. / 6'1", 215

29. Logan Woodside / Toledo / 6'1", 210








The following are athletes that could be asked to convert to another position:


 1. Greg Ward Jr. / Houston / 5'11", 183

8220334.jpg




2. Josh Dobbs / Tennessee / 6'3", 215

3. Drew Hare / Northern Illinois / 6'1", 215

4. Justin Thomas / Georgia Tech / 5'11", 185
 
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Good job. I appreciate Slimm because he's up to date on the Pac 12 far beyond the vast majority of draft analysts in the East.

Goff deserves to be first among this group. I was worried Dykes might kill him as a freshman. Slight frame and throwing incessantly on a terrible team. Last season the uptick was considerable, both for the team and player. Kind of the opposite of what Hackenberg did.

Hard to believe Gunner Kiel is still an underclassman. I'm disappointed in Tuberville for allowing so much imbalance. Kiel was injured going into the game against the Canes last year so it was difficult to get a good read on him. Overall it was one finesse play after another, not unlike what Cal does. I hope to attend the Canes game at Cincinnati on Thursday night this fall. Should be a real battle, unlike the lopsided result in 2014.
 
Goff is my #1 QB for the whole draft. I like him more than Derek Carr who is a similar comp for him
 
Not on the same wave-length as the rest of you on Goff, but I haven't done nearly as much film work.

My two concerns:
a. Goff seems to struggle driving the football outside the hashes. Maybe it was just the games I watched, but didn't see the necessary zip.
b. Air raid offense. Literally no one has come out of that system and been successful.

These are very preliminary observations.
 
I like Penn State's Christian Hackenberg. I know his accuracy has not been great, but he is always running for his life behind a crappy O-line, kind of like Tannehill's first two years with the Phins. Give him more time to throw it and I think he will be just fine.
 
Sonny Dike's system and Goff's lack of bulk on his frame are the two most critical factors in terms of evaluating his transition to the next level. However, he can definitely make all the throws...that's not an issue. He's no lock to be an elite starting quarterback in the NFL at this point, but he deserves to be the top underclassman due to his body of work, level of competition, and the fact that none of the others have proven to be better or more consistent than him.

The underclassman quarterbacks with elite physical tools and prototype size like Cardale Jones or Jeremy Johnson, simply haven't had enough snaps under their belt to warrant being ahead of him. In Cardale's case, he has vital flaws in his own game due to inexperience. He was 3rd string behind Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett for a reason, despite being in the program for a few years. I don't care how much hype Jones gets because he's big and has a strong arm, he's not the best QB on Ohio St.'s roster.... J.T. Barrett is.


Hackenberg's problem isn't his offensive line, it's his accuracy. On simple throws, he often misses the receiver completely. Even when he has time and under no pressure. He does it every other snap. He'll throw it into the ground 3 feet in front of a wide open receiver on a 12 yard route. On simple bubble screens, I want to see the ball hit the upfield shoulder... Hackenberg misses this throw a lot. On a simple 6 yard out, the receiver will often have to leave his feet just to make the catch. This kills any opportunity for RAC.

It's just over and over and over again with Hackenberg. He just doesn't throw the ball accurately. He throws the ball better downfield than he does on the short to intermediate routes. Certainly hasn't developed the skill the throw receivers open, which really hurts his grade in my eyes. He's still trying to develope getting the football within a 3 foot area consistently.

What I like about Hackenberg is how he deals with pressure in terms of using his body...and his feet. He just doesn't do anything with it after he's successfully managed to impress me by initially dealing with pressure. Secondly, he's had to deal with new coaching staffs and new philosophies his first two seasons. He needs to show improvement in these areas in '15 to move up and challenge for a top 3 spot among underclassman QB's on my board.
 
Hackenberg is a maddening player to watch. I'll want to hate him then he makes a beautiful downfield dart that these other guys can't match. Then I want to like him before he makes a string of absurd throws like the ones Slimm described, where you swear he wasn't aiming at anybody on his team.

He does have a swagger to him, something that Goff needs more of. Goff is apologetically good sometimes. Seems like a quiet type. He does need more arm strength but that should come as his frame fills out, even though that might take a year or two into the NFL.

I don't like Sonny Dykes' offense but at least it threatens some balance, albeit reluctantly. He'll run it maybe 35 to 36 times per game. Mike Leach still wants to pretend he can run it half that often and succeed in the Pac 12. Leach never should have left the Big 12, where bubble screens and simple offshoots from those concepts are allowed to ramble mostly undisturbed.
 
I also have a better opinion of J.T. Barrett as opposed to Cardale Jones.

There are very real ways that Cardale's arm strength opened up that offense. Deep passes got at least 5-6 yards deeper beyond the line of scrimmage and it really challenged the amount of field a defense had to defend.

But I think Barrett's leadership and demeanor are what set him apart. Those are the guys that tend to come out on top, as opposed to a Cardale Jones...who reminds me eerily of Jamarcus Russell.

---------- Post added at 11:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:57 AM ----------
Gonzo said:
#2 on his Senior QB list.
Click to expand...

Ah ok. I get ya. Was reading the wrong list. I saw him flagging redshirt sophomores so I thought this was a list of everyone.
 
Ezekiel Elliott's stats in the 3 games Cardale started:

Wisconsin- 20 carries, 220 yards, 2 TD's
Alabama- 20 carries, 230 yards, 2 TD's
Oregon- 36 carries, 246 yards, 4 TD's


Why does Cardale get so much credit for riding Zeke and a great OL and Defense all the way to the National Championship? He's a 1 read passer with a big arm. He's not even the best QB prospect on Ohio State's roster.
 
I understand that Jeremy Johnson has barely any experience, but if you do a little math, Cardale Jones only has one more start than Jeremy. He started the game in 2013 vs Western Carolina, he played the 2nd half against FAU in 2013, and started the 1st half of the 2014 Arkansas game. I think the only advantages I would give Cardale are arm strength and running ability. Jeremy seems to have better field vision and decision making, game management skills, setpup quickness, and far better touch and timing. Cardale has very heavy feet in the pocket which negates his setup quickness and he can't change up his ball speed and throw with touch, everything he throws is a bullet. For me, Jeremy Johnson is a much superior prospect and player.
 
There's so much more that needs to be seen from him though. The Arkansas showing was OK but the statistics probably inflate the showing a little. I'm not sure how much Western Carolina or FAU should count. I suppose the FAU showing is worth looking at.

Perhaps with the exception of Justin Holman, I'd be comfortable with the guys that Slimm has listed ahead of Jeremy Johnson, pending further information. Although I haven't seen Sefo Liufau at all so I can't comment. But even Patrick Towles, he makes some bad decisions but he's also a lot more battle tested for the time being. Hard to really get a feel for how Jeremy Johnson thinks or makes decisions.

EDIT: I'm starting to get a look at Sefo Liufau and I'm really impressed. Didn't realize he's the Throwin' Samoan's nephew. Some good bloodlines.
 
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You have to keep in mind that there's a big difference between starting against Oregon, Alabama, and Wisconsin in the middle of a national championship run, and getting a couple of token starts against FCS and C-USA competition. The thing that will always hold Jeremy Johnson back in terms of true development is that fact that he never turns his back to the defense. You have to take the low turnover numbers with a grain of salt when dealing with quarterbacks that play in these type systems....no matter how much experience they have. He'll put up good numbers in that offense, but completion percentage and low turnover numbers are dramatically inflated. They don't translate to the next level.

Secondly, if you really pay attention to Jeremy Johnson's throws, his arm isn't what I would classify as "strong". It's average. When you consider the trajectory, placement, rotation on the ball, and how it comes out of his hand... his arm isn't what I would consider strong. Again, it's average. I pay close attention to these kids in spring games too. I watch all of 'em. All over the country.

Lastly, it's the nature of the progressions in that particular style of offense that are extremely elementary. Alerts on the outside are pre-determined throws before the snap.... that call comes from the sidelines. Otherwise, they're eliminated from the progressions after the snap. Actions and hots are all simple MOF reads. It's the same basic concepts that are run at the high school level and filtered into college football. It's the same offense Gus was running at Shiloh Christian and Springdale. It's the same passing concepts my son ran at the high school level for Hartselle, except out of the Pistol formation, and even he had to turn his back to the defense out of the Pistol.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
You have to keep in mind that there's a big difference between starting against Oregon, Alabama, and Wisconsin in the middle of a national championship run, and getting a couple of token starts against FCS and C-USA competition. The thing that will always hold Jeremy Johnson back in terms of true development is that fact that he never turns his back to the defense. You have to take the low turnover numbers with a grain of salt when dealing with quarterbacks that play in these type systems....no matter how much experience they have. He'll put up good numbers in that offense, but completion percentage and low turnover numbers are dramatically inflated. They don't translate to the next level.

Secondly, if you really pay attention to Jeremy Johnson's throws, his arm isn't what I would classify as "strong". It's average. When you consider the trajectory, placement, rotation on the ball, and how it comes out of his hand... his arm isn't what I would consider strong. Again, it's average. I pay close attention to these kids in spring games too. I watch all of 'em. All over the country.

Lastly, it's the nature of the progressions in that particular style of offense that are extremely elementary. Alerts on the outside are pre-determined throws before the snap.... that call comes from the sidelines. Otherwise, they're eliminated from the progressions after the snap. Actions and hots are all simple MOF reads. It's the same basic concepts that are run at the high school level and filtered into college football. It's the same offense Gus was running at Shiloh Christian and Springdale. It's the same passing concepts my son ran at the high school level for Hartselle, except out of the Pistol formation, and even he had to turn his back to the defense out of the Pistol.
Click to expand...

I think with every spread offense you have to take the stats with a grain of salt. Whether you're running the Urban Meyer spread option, Gus Malzahn power spread, or the Hal Mumme Air Raid. All those stats are inflated. I also agree that Jeremy Johnson's arm is overrated, and Cardale blows him out of the water in that department.
 
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