Slimm's 2018 Quarterbacks (Seniors)

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by TedSlimmJr, May 4, 2017.

  1. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    1. Mason Rudolph / Oklahoma St. / 6'5", 230

    2. Baker Mayfield / Oklahoma / 6'1", 215

    3. Riley Ferguson / Memphis / 6'4", 210

    [​IMG]



    4. Brandon Silvers / Troy / 6'3", 217

    5. Matt Linehan / Idaho / 6'3", 239

    6. Austin Allen / Arkansas / 6'1", 212

    7. Dalton Sturm / UTSA / 6'2", 205

    8. Luke Falk / Washington St. / 6'4", 220

    9. Richard Lagow / Indiana / 6'6", 240

    10. Kurt Benkert / Virginia / 6'4", 215

    11. Logan Woodside / Toledo / 6'1", 206

    12. Jeremiah Briscoe / Sam Houston St. / 6'3", 225

    13. Kenny Hill / TCU / 6'1", 209











    Athlete:

    1. Quinton Flowers / S. Florida / 6'0", 210
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 4, 2017
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  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    When I watched Memphis a little later on in the draft process I kept thinking to myself how the hell do they do this, find these huge, big-armed, good looking NFL prospect quarterbacks that can run? Like how do they steal these guys away from bigger programs?

    And I don't know what Quinton Flowers is going to be, I've always been skeptical of the man as a QB so I never handed him anything by virtue of my season tickets, but I have never seen a QB this elusive before aside from maybe Mike Vick and that's actually close.
     
  3. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Memphis didn't steal Riley Ferguson. He was at Tennessee competing with Justin Worley, Josh Dobbs, and Nathan Peterman for the starting job. Broke his leg and had to sit out before he saw the writing on the wall and decided to transfer. Some of these kids want to play. He eventually would've beaten out all those other quarterbacks in my opinion.
     
  4. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I like Woodside. Shorter and much lighter than you want, but he knows how to look off DB's, and his accuracy/ball placement is what you want. He's also aggressive, willing to squeeze the ball through tight windows or throw open covered receivers. I also like the control over the offense and the play that he displays. Arm looks good enough/not great. If he can add good weight, I think he's in the conversation with Mayfield and McSorley (doubt he declares?), as QB's who lack prototypical physical traits but offer extra in other key areas. Has to add that weight, though.
     
  5. Tannenbombs

    Tannenbombs FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I know I'm commenting all at once, so I don't expect you to reply to all instantly..

    I don't know what to do with Rudolph. He has some arm talent and makes good decisions within the offense, but it's all vertical, curl/comeback, or screens. Sure his INT # is low, he never throws any inside breaking routes. I really struggled with him. See him as an early day 3 guy at this point. Thoughts?
     
  6. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    If he's a day 3 quarterback that means he'll be drafted in the top 150 picks. That's the nature of the NFL.

    I see him as a Day 2 quarterback that will be drafted even earlier than that.
     
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  7. Tannenbombs

    Tannenbombs FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I guess my question is how do you evaluate his processing when it's all so simple?
     
  8. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I think you have to weigh it vs. what the other Senior quarterbacks are doing. They're all doing the same thing....some to even more gimmicky degree, but doing it with less of a prototype build and less physical tools.

    The only Senior quarterback executing pro style concepts every week is Austin Allen.
     
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  9. Tannenbombs

    Tannenbombs FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Yeah I'm probably too low on Rudolph. I thought about a 3rd round grade, oh well can always bump in fall. Did you like his deep ball?
     
  10. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Best in the business if you ask me. One of the main reasons he's sitting at the top here.
     
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  11. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Barring any ref flags, Rudolph looks like a guy with a good shot at developing into a starter, who can win with a high-end supporting group. He's a big guy, with adequate movement, who has the arm to put the ball where he wants. I agree that he has an excellent deep ball. He's not dynamic, but he shows some ability to make plays outside the play. Day 2 sounds right to me.
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I think there are legit reasons to question whether Austin Allen has the physical talent he'd need at the next level, arm talent and otherwise. There are lots of things to like about him, but it's tough to imagine that package of talent being a top level guy in the NFL.

    I think Baker Mayfield, a-hole that he is (or so I've heard), and even having the disadvantages in the offensive background that he does relative to an Austin Allen, the talent is better.
     
  13. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    What I find interesting is how many times I've heard that Baker Mayfield doesn't have the physical tools to play at the next level. I've heard it since he was a freshman in 2013 at Texas Tech. I couldn't disagree more. They're either not watching the kid play, or it's just a stigma that followed him to Oklahoma simply because he was a TT quarterback. However, Mayfield certainly has significant off field issues that are concerning. He's got a little bit of that Chad Kelly in him. He'll also have to overcome bit of a lack of size, as will Austin Allen....but it is possible for both of 'em.

    Allen and Mayfield are very similar in terms of the caliber of their arms and the throws they can make. Mayfield is a tad more athletic from the waist down. Which I believe is offset somewhat by a lot of the more pro style fundamentals Allen executes in Dan Enos' offense. The thing I like so much about Allen is his poise and toughness in the pocket. Willingness to stand in there and deliver strikes in a collapsing pocket with trash all around him. His ability to quickly get his head around and locate the safeties after turning his back to the defense. He's the most pressured quarterback in college football, and it doesn't phase him at all. He excels under pressure in situations where most tend to crumble, or leave the pocket too early and bail on their progression. Kid took a beating against Alabama, got his *** kicked and never gave up.

    I think he's similar to a Cody Kessler type prospect, who I had a similar grade on at this point. Floor I'd say is somewhere around Aaron Murray....which is never a starter in the NFL. Allen certainly doesn't project as a top level quarterback at the next level. Neither does Mayfield for that matter. More of a backup/spot starter type. But I like both a little better than Luke Falk obviously.

    Allen can split the safeties with 50 yard strikes after turning his back to the defense...
    [​IMG]



    If you can make those type throws and throws like this consistently down in the redzone, you have a chance in my estimation.
    [​IMG]
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    From what I have seen of Baker Mayfield, I am just not inclined to criticize his overall talent level the way that you've alluded to others doing.

    When I watch Austin Allen, there are times when I get the impression that there are things he really just can't do with the football, especially under pressure and with any kind of off leverage. When I watch Mayfield, it's not just that he has better legs, it's that there are more places where he can go with the football due to his arm.

    I think Mayfield throws with more zip, Allen more touch. There's good and bad to that because sometimes you get the feeling Allen is throwing the football while Mayfield is slinging the football, but Mayfield's accuracy on these zippier throws is pretty good so I'm not sure it's an area of critique that I'm going to obsess over.

    Fact of the matter is there have been probably 14 hall of fame caliber quarterbacks to come out of the draft since Dan Marino's infamous class about 33 years ago. Every time one of those quarterbacks comes along it's a "bolt of lightning from God" as Pat Riley would call it. If you're only getting about one of those guys every 2+ years then it follows that we're not looking at the upcoming class and figuring that there are three or five of them in it. You're right, it's a little hard to imagine either Mayfield or Allen being the next of an exclusive group.

    But I could imagine Josh Allen being that, and though I've got work to do on Sam Darnold, there's a lot there as well. Perhaps that's overly fatalistic, but it's the reality.
     
  15. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Crazy Mayfield stat:

    In 2016, he completed 60% of his passes or better in every game but one - Week 3 loss to Ohio St (53%).

    The only thing holding me back from loving Mayfield is hand size. If he hits at leat 9", I'm in. Character is the other thing, and early indicators are discouraging, but I haven't looked enough to have a solid opinion there.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Gold star for any Tanner Lee lovers out there.

    That guy has my attention whole hog. Let's not go overboard on him but he always showed potential at Tulane, and his spring game footage at Nebraska this year looks superb.
     
  17. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Would like to direct that attention to the underclassman thread if I may, in regards to Tanner Lee.... has 2 to play 2.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Whoops.

    He's listed in the 2018 class by NFL Draft Scout.
     
  19. Blake the great

    Blake the great A True Fan

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    Baker Mayfield is my guy. I know everyone is afraid of his size but he's a winner, a leader and is super competitive. We need that swag at the QB position. I'm not sure what type of QB Gase is looking for and I'm not sure if Gase himself knows yet either. But I would be thrilled if we could get Mayfield and have him sit for a year or two. I wouldn't be surprised if he became the starter before then really, he spent most of his life proving everyone wrong and plays with a chip on his shoulder.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Brandon Silvers is growing on me quite a bit. Like this year's Cooper Rush. There's a lot of pro translation in his game. His fundamental skills are good and he's able to generate a lot of zip on the football. Nothing in his game seems to be a genuine weakness. The LSU game will be interesting for him. Damn near beat Clemson a year ago. A good showing against good teams would be in character for Silvers.

    We've talked about Logan Woodside. I've always been attracted to his fundamental traits. His feet are fantastic and he's got good pocket management skills. He'll always face questions about his arm. I like what he showed against Miami's defense, and I like in general how he is able to lose guys like Kareem Hunt and Michael Roberts, and be just as dangerous as a year ago.

    I also really liked Richard Lagow's performance against Ohio State. He's going through some stuff up in Indiana where they want to keep taking him off the field in favor of a hot shot freshman. Not sure it's warranted.
     
  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Curious if the NFL can find something to do for Chris Streveler. Other than playing quarterback, which I don't think is in the cards for him.

    I want to make him a tight end based on his build and skill set but 6'2" & 220 lbs is a stretch for that position if the listing is accurate.

    That's probably his fate, regardless...and I'll be damned if I'm not interested in seeing how that works out. Could be like a Zach Miller from Nebraska-Omaha.
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Given that both guys hail from offenses that aren't really anything like the coveted pro style experience, to me the only thing Mason Rudolph does better than Baker Mayfield is reach for the cereal in the top cabinet. I mean I guess I understand the reticence over height, but this is Russell Wilson all over again. Not that Baker will play at a HOF pace like Russell, but in the way that Baker is discounted relative to others on things that are not actually seen, but only guessed at based on a perception of historical precedent.
     
  23. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    What do we think of Luke Falk? About to break TD records for the Pac 12. Loves to go through his progressions and hang in the pocket.
     
  24. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    Not much talk about Luke Falk. What are the opinions on this guy? Haven't seen a lot of him, but do like his ball placement, very accurate quarterback. Doesn't look to have a huge arm or to be overly athletic, but those are the same things said about a guy named Tom Brady.

    Just to be clear, I'm not comparing him to Brady. Just interested to get thoughts on him including what round you all think he'll go in?

    I believe MIami will take a quarterback in this draft, probably mid round unless the team finds itself picking really high.
     
  25. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    Interestingly, when I watched Luke Falk I thought of Kirk Cousins as a comparison. Daniel Jeremiah just wrote the same thing on his scouting report.

    Is that what you guys see? Cousins was a fourth rounder, but I thought he should have gone in the second. Obviously, he's outplayed his draft status. Wonder if Miami could get Falk in round two or if he's moved into the first round discussion?
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    First throw in this clip...pure sex. This is not a guy with arm strength issues by any measure.

     
  27. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I'm not a guy that's going to grade a quarterback like Falk very high. He's a mid rounder to me. Not necessarily a dime a dozen spread system passer, but not a lot more significant than that either in my opinion.

    He doesn't make any real NFL caliber throws into tight windows in the middle of the field like Tanner Lee or Ryan Finley do. Not an anticipatory passer.

    The only big plays Falk can really produce in the passing game are due to missed assignments or blown coverages. I'm surprised he's coveted as highly as he seems to be.
     
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  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Yeah and it's not just draft talking heads that are onto Falk...the actual scouts are onto him. But I have a feeling that had a bit more to do with reaction against the performance by Sam Darnold when the two faced one another. Falk had a nice day.

    He's just never hit me as having anything special. There are good traits there. But his ability to throw the football isn't special. His anticipation or ability to see developments on the field isn't special. His spatial awareness and reactions aren't special. Combine all that with him running a Leach offense and it seems like a late round pick is all you can afford on a guy like that, if not a UDFA contract like Connor Halliday.
     
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  29. Tannenbombs

    Tannenbombs FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I just put a 1st round grade on Baker Mayfield. 2nd best QB in draft after Rosen
     
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  30. Tannenbombs

    Tannenbombs FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    3rd round grade on Mason Rudolph
     
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  31. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I thought you'd like him. Got any thoughts on him?
     
  32. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I'm seeing Rudolph greatly over mocked. He's not a first rounder and I've seen him as the 1st pick in some mocks
     
  33. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    I'd love Mayfield.

    He's my second favorite behind Josh Allen.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Kudos to Slimm for sticking Dalton Sturm onto the list.

    One of my very favorite quarterbacks in this class. He's being coached by Frank Scelfo, who spent three years with the Jaguars coaching Blake Bortles and Chad Henne. He got bumped up from QB Coach to senior offensive assistant in 2015 the year Bortles had that great season throwing 35 touchdowns. In college, Scelfo coached Shaun King, Patrick Ramsey, and Nick Foles.

    You watch what UTSA does on offense and they're having Dalton Sturm do stuff that translates directly to Sunday football.

    I love listening to Scelfo talk about the offense and Sturm.

    He's not the biggest guy nor does he have the strongest arm. But for two years he's already been learning the pro game the hard way. When he had to learn that stuff in 2016 it didn't always work out or look pretty. But he's made enormous strides in 2017 understanding how he can work the offense in his favor, and the results are stupendous.

    Scoring 33+ points a game and having a 122 passer rating while operating a pro style offense at the college level is not always easy, regardless of whether it's Power Five or Group of Five. Cooper Rush found that out at Central Michigan under former Dolphins Special Teams Coach John Bonamego.

    The team upset Baylor, walloped Texas State, lost 29-31 to Southern Miss on a failed 2-point conversion at the end, and lost 26-29 to North Texas last week.

    The quarterback Sturm is playing situational football and putting his team in position to win games. He executed a comeback against Southern Miss and scored the potential tying TD in the final minute, but then the 2-point conversion failed. He got the ball with about 8:30 left in the 4th quarter, down 20-22 against North Texas, and he engineered a 87 yard drive that took 5+ minutes off the clock and finished with a touchdown to go up 26-22 (another failed 2-point conversion). The other team went three-and-out, and gave the ball back to Sturm, but the coaches never called his number and ran the ball three straight times trying to run out the clock. It failed, they gave the ball back to North Texas with a full minute left, and the defense gives up two big plays and they lost the game 26-29.

    Unfortunately we're not going to get a chance to see Sturm tested hard the rest of the year until perhaps their bowl game (and I've no doubt they'll get into one). It's not as if Sturm has the highest quality receiving options and blockers in front of him, although I do have a lot of respect for the lead WR Josh Stewart. The toughest remaining game on schedule for UTSA will be Marshall.

    Sturm was invited to Manning Camp to be a counselor for a reason and not just because Frank Scelfo tossed his name in for consideration. The game tapes actually look really, really good. He's such a good execution-oriented quarterback with great feet and hands. He manages a pocket and senses pressure like a pro. The arm isn't great. It's good enough. The real question for him is how much information he can process and handle because Scelfo keeps pushing him and asking him to take the next step and the next step and the one after, and so far the kid hasn't plateaued.
     
  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    You can't really make much more of a splash than Kyle Kempt has made since taking over for Jacob Park against #3 ranked Oklahoma, leading the team to victory behind 18 of 24 passing for 343 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. He followed up with an efficient game against Kansas, routing them 45-0. Now he's beating the tar out of Texas Tech on 19 of 25 for 168 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs passing. The senior is on a truly incredible run.

    He looks the part at 6'5" and 210 lbs with smooth footwork. He throws a very catchable football and obviously he's accurate (50 of 69 thus far). Iowa State has some talent at the WR spots and they do a great job coming back down the stem to work for the football, but he also does a good job with his decision making, timing, and placement to let them do their jobs. Some of those studs he's throwing to are pretty tall and he knows how to get the ball to them high to let them get it. He turns and hits the flat really well whether it's a back or a screen. He's physically strong and tough, runs the football on designed runs and does OK with it even though he's not necessarily a great athlete. He'll block when the play swings back around on him. They don't ask him to do a ton in the way of managing a huddle, play calling, etc. He does have to adjust the play according to what he's seeing in the defense. He just does a really good job from what I can tell letting the offense and the skill players work for him.

    But how much mental toughness do you have to have to be getting your FIRST action as an FBS player IN OKLAHOMA against the #3 college football team in the nation, get down 14-0 on the scoreboard, and then just go to work and have just about a perfect day en route to one of the biggest upsets I've ever seen. And he hasn't taken his foot off the gas pedal since.

    This guy benefits from all the stuff everyone usually complains about with this type of offense. There's no sugar coating that. Cheap yardage and completions via screens, coaches calling changes from the sideline, spread concepts, shotgun, etc. But so many of the other guys out there are doing the same stuff. This guy is generally managing pressure well, putting the ball on the money, and hurting teams vertically. It's an impressive run and I'm anxious to see how he finishes out the year.
     
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  36. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Absolutely dead on and it's very interesting to me that you noticed this kid too, and what the situation was surrounding him.

    I've been impressed with your eye for noticing a lot of these lesser known players lately and being aware enough to appreciate what you're seeing. Your eye for college talent seems to be improved a lot. Very impressive.
     
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  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Something that interests me is trying to contextualize some of these guys like a Dalton Sturm who is so clearly translatable to NFL Sunday in terms of what he runs and what he's good at, versus other guys who will get higher grades but are either really far from where they would need to be experience-wise in order to process the information they're going to need to process at the next level (i.e. system barriers), or are just plain less effective right now.

    It's tough because when I look at the last four elite level Hall of Fame type passers that have come down the pipe, we're talking about Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers..you couldn't make the case that any one of these guys fit the bill as a physical prototype, or "high ceiling" guy, with the potential exception of Rodgers who was on the shorter end at 6'2" with a bit of a skinny frame. Peyton Manning was slow and never had a cannon arm. Drew Brees is short as hell and doesn't really have a huge arm. Tom Brady is slow, was physically under-developed, and didn't necessarily have a great arm coming out (not bad, either).

    These guys achieved at the pinnacle level for NFL passers, so where did the "ceiling" ultimately end up for them? It ended up being high as hell. So how can we in good conscience make "ceiling" arguments based on physical attributes and then apply them in nuanced ways?

    Yet that's what we (self-included) are going to do with a guy like Dalton Sturm versus a guy like Josh Allen, both of whom are running pro concepts, one of whom is clearly making better decisions, handling the full offense, and throwing more catchable footballs than the other. And I'm not saying we're wrong for doing it. It's just an interesting dynamic.

    To put a number to the difference between them physically in terms of arm strength, I had Sturm driving a throw about 31-32 yards through the air clocked at about 43 mph (usually give or take 1 mph on either side), whereas I had Josh Allen in 2016 driving a throw about 28 yards through the air up the field at about 49 mph (and that was truthfully probably a bit on the slower end for him for a throw like that).

    There's a pretty significant difference there. But when you get right to it, Peyton Manning didn't throw better than that especially in the later years when he was setting records with Adam Gase. In fact Sturm is significantly better throwing multi-directionally and on the move than Peyton was. Tom Brady might throw a little better than that but it doesn't translate on the deep ball unless he happens to have Randy Moss in his prime, and not exactly a guy that's going to do it on the run, either.

    Dalton Sturm was a state hurdles champion and he's out there running for 70 yards in some games. He's got physical mobility attributes some of the Hall of Fame caliber guys didn't have. Not exactly Russell Wilson, but pretty close to Andrew Luck that way.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2017
  38. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I'll say this, I watched Josh Allen throw a TD pass Saturday night to Austin Fort that none of these other quarterbacks can make. Maybe Sam Darnold can. But that's it.

    He's always made throws on the move to his right that are just extraordinary.

    He reminds me a lot of Ryan Tannehill coming out of college when I watch him. Tannehill would always make such tremendous throws on the run because he understood that he needed to square his shoulders to the target first. If you do that, you can get away with your feet not being set to throw a lot of times. And a lot of quarterbacks don't do it.

    Tannehill needed development from within the confines of the pocket. I see the same sort of thing with Josh Allen. He's still so undeveloped, but that's why his ceiling is so high. Believe me, you don't want this guy to escape to his right if you're an opposing defensive coach.

    Evaluating talent is such an art form that you really can't even discuss most of it in person, much less on a message board.

    There are lots of things that I see or notice about players that I still can't quite articulate in order to get it across to anyone else exactly what I'm seeing or how I seen it, and I've been doing it a long time. But I know it when I see it, and to what degree I'm seeing it. I know it when I don't.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    The magic continues for Kyle Kempt. He is a ridiculous 4-0 having taken down the #3 ranked Oklahoma IN Oklahoma, and now the #4 ranked TCU.

    To be fair, the defense did more than its share on that one, winning the game 14-7. Give Kempt his due though, as he put together an efficient 21 of 35 for 202 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT performance.
     
  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    When I wrote this, I was looking at his 2016 tape.

    There are aspects of his 2017 tape that are NIGHT and DAY compared with what I saw. In this Youngstown State game he's throwing with true NFL zip, and has one of the damn quickest releases I've seen all year. His weight transfer isn't all there, doesn't get much rotation, all arm. I remember Andrew Luck being all arm a lot of the time, too. But the ball gets out so flipping quick, and it comes out accurate too. He's standing in there and making throws with contact coming in on him.

    You know he's got legs. Hell he seems like he's 75% legs because he's got that kind of odd build. But he's a man. Built like a man, strength like a man, athletic as all get-out. You look at him play and you think I could probably put him somewhere on defense and he'd probably wreck a lot of sh-t. Or I could do some things with him on offense and do the same.

    The difference is THIS year I'm watching him throw the ball and saying, damn I think I just want him wrecking sh-t as a quarterback.

    He's the team's leading rusher in addition to being the quarterback. He's scored 31 touchdowns this year (21 passing) and thrown only 4 interceptions, completing 65% of his passes.

    I'm loving what I'm seeing in this Youngstown State game. I wonder if all his 2017 games are like this.
     

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