Something I Pondered Upon

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Stoobz, May 3, 2017.

  1. Stoobz

    Stoobz Scout Team Finheaven VIP

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    I wondered what would I rather have from a draft pick - a good player from a crappy team or a good player from a team loaded with talent?

    In our case, Harris came from a team with exactly 1 player drafted this year, that being Harris.

    OTOH... McMillan came from a team that vied for a spot at the big table and had 7 players drafted.

    Not sure if this really means anything other than I think we are finally headed in the right direction with most of these picks.

    No more TGJr. and his family or Eddie "Earthquake" Blakes or Pat Whites, nor the debacle of a disaster at DE/OLB who hailed from Oregon.

    FWIW, when they drafted Pat White, imagine Jim Mora saying "Pat White?" in his infamous "playoffs?" voice. That was my reaction.

    I digress and ramble and am in need of sleep.

    GO DOLPHINS!
     
  2. Aquaaiea

    Aquaaiea Well-Known Member

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    I'd say Harris performance should be more impressive as most teams would game plan against one of few good players on the team. Still I think McMillan will have the better career. Just a feeling.
     
  3. illscriptures

    illscriptures We need better LB's

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    Guns and Butter bro
     
  4. spiketex

    spiketex Kiko, El Bravo 47 - the yappy chihuahua Super Donator Donator

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    ???? It's guns versus butter - the political economy debate of the mid 1930's, whether it was economically more advantageous for Germany to put money into Defense (guns) versus agriculture (butter).
     
  5. FinJay614

    FinJay614 Well-Known Member

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    Playing for the weaker team means heavier lifting for the few studs because they get double teamed whereas guys from stacked rosters are more likely to have one-on-one matchups. And in the case of Harris, it's more impressive that he was in the SEC and still played well.
     
  6. jim1

    jim1 Pro Bowler

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    ----------------------------------------
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 4, 2017
  7. finfan41

    finfan41 Rookie Finheaven VIP

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    I woudepends on the players, McMillan was the captain of that defense and was responsible for making sure everyone was where there supposed to be at, Harris as s pass rushers did not have that responsibility just get the person with the ball and I think he does that well
     
  8. Hunxima67

    Hunxima67 New Member

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    I think that so.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2017
  9. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    The classic example of a good player on a not so good team would be Patrick Willis. This year's version of that might be Zach Cunningham at Vanderbilt. Still, I'd rather have Raekwon McMillan, who probably got hidden at Ohio State because he was surrounded by so much talent. On the other hand, someone like Reuben Foster benefitted from having so much talent along the Alabama DL that he was always free to fly to the ball. I don't know that there's an easy answer to that one.

    Also, you tend to get the best prototypical measurable from the teams loaded with talent. So if you're looking for a guy with speed, quickness and size ... those tend to come from the teams loaded with talent like Ohio State or Florida. Again, Zach Cunningham would be the opposite. But, people overlook his missed tackles because he was the only guy making tackles at Vanderbilt.
     
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  10. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Well-Known Member

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    Saw a video on this topic. Khalil Mack was one example given, small school, only good player, balled out.

    Malik McDowell is the posterboy for best talent on a crappy defense.

    The case was made that dudes who elevate crappy teams from WhatsamattaU were fading the "Big School" bias.
     
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  11. Vector1Dolphins

    Vector1Dolphins Seasoned Veteran

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    IMO...The pick should be a good player...I believe he should be a good fit for the team and have a positive impact...The School or other players don't really matter so much as long as the pick is good for US..Remember the kid from Akron "Jason Taylor" ...I just want good players with the picks I don't really care from where as long as threir good for the Fin's!!
     
  12. Birdmond

    Birdmond FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Mack almost beat Ohio State by himself. I'll never forget that performance.
     
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  13. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    harris first step is it's own level and hard to find. mcmillons warts are hard to sniff out considering all the talent around him but vs higher level skill athletes they show up...the nfl is chalk full of top shelf athletes...Miami can't fix the maxed out athlete there so we have to rely on his hand use getting better to stack and primarily shed blocks and his football iq has to offset. even with all that expect there to be range to the perimeter of the field issues showing up on sundays with this kid. the 4.6 isn't very consistent outside the off tackle area. it's more like 4.8 to the perimeter of the field and that's even with pretty solid instincts. perimeter of the field play speed is suspect and is a major reason you end up with an nfl ready for contact lb with almost 6 foot 2 and 238 lbs and from a power conference and team like ohio state with his production level on the board in the 50's...
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2017
  14. tthorpe13

    tthorpe13 Well-Known Member

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    Love the analysis Hoops. Care to share your thoughts on the draft overall?
     
  15. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    So I take it you aren't a McMillan fan?
     
  16. The Ghost

    The Ghost Stamos

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    I don't think it necessarily matter's where guys come from. A guy from Ohio State is coming into the NFL used to winning and has the foundation of someone expecting that. Conversely someone coming from Missouri might be even hungrier once he gets to the pro's as his teammate's talent level's will be more comparable to his own.

    For the record, I really like the guy from Missouri and Ohio State. ;)
     
  17. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    Didn't Mcmillan miss 23 tackles in 3 years while Cunningham missed 21 tackles this year alone?

    We all know, from watching Dolphins games, if we seen another poor tackling lber we would freak out.

    I believe we made the right choice when it's all said and done.
     
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  18. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    Love the post and the points you make are beautiful. Cunningham is a poor tackler and that's beyond unacceptable. Mcmillan makes the most sense IMO
     
  19. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    It's a good question.

    I know some teams put an emphasis on collecting players from a winning program. Not sure if that translates to winning in the NFL or not.

    Seems like Miami is looking for leaders, team captain types, and players who will work hard. I think that's a good approach. A winning player, to me, is more important than a winning program. If that player happens to come from a winning program all the better.
     
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  20. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter

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    Meh...every case is different. Jamie Collins (who the Patriots traded last year to the Browns) was the only player worth a crap on his team...a team that went 1-11 I believe. He's done pretty well in the NFL. On the other hand players that play on good teams get to face better competition every day in practice...but that's no guarantee they'll succeed in the NFL. Personally I think the success of a player has more to do with his mental makeup/capabilities as it does his physical abilities. Tom Brady being a prime example. Just about everyone in the NFL has physical ability but not everyone has the ability to process things quickly and then make their bodies react as soon as they process what they need to in their mind.
     
  21. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    I thought the player value in the first 3 rounds was accurate with where we picked each player and I also felt that with maybe the possible exception of Isaac Asiata Miami drafted ideal scheme fits and not kids miscast out the gate. And so those 2 things are a plus. We didn't overdraft anyone and we didn't draft kids to do things that they don't show on tape already.

    As for the actual player analysis I will start with Harris. I said all along if I'm gonna draft a de top 25 in a 43 he better have outside shoulder win ability. Harris first step on tape is lethal stuff. The kind of stuff that gets tackles attention and they must account for. But to make this short and sweet this pick is boom or bust material. He has short arms so the run d and poa play upside looks serviceable at best long term. Miami put the premium on pass rush that's the bottom line.
    And for this pick to work out this kid has to give us 8 sack or more production on a yearly basis. He's here to get us off the field on 3rd down and to finish teams when we get leads and he can pin his ears. And he's best as a pass rusher in a 3 point stance. Add in the wide 9 and this fits. He also seems to have the alpha personality that this team covets. He sure talks the talk too. Finish on the qb no one else will care about anything else. Anything less than plan a sub rusher out the gate opposite wake will be a disappointment for me at least. He has a spin move he can turn into from either hip and he knows how to press the tackle before he goes into it he's not spinning vs air. Ask Brandon Albert what gave him more fits in his career than anything else and he'd tell you the spin move vs high level first step burst and explosion. Harris in the sub can basically be told to rush to the qb drop spot dictated by the distance to the sticks and that way he can slowly develop his maintaining vision on the football. Put him in a 3 or 4 point peering in at the ball and tell him to hunt the qb. As a pure pass rusher on tape I think he validated a top 25 grade. Why did he get to you at 22? Cause like every 43 de in the 20s he's got work to do to become a more all around player. He will get 2 years to show what he's got as a pass rusher and it will be either he steps up or Miami looks for a better option by year 3. Pretty standard stuff
    Guess I will do these one at a time cause they are becoming books
     
  22. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    One more thing about Harris and then I will move on. I've heard a lot about 4.8 and how it doesn't translate as a pass rusher. Well i think for me if I was thinking this kid was more gonna flush the qb and pursue than actually meet the qb before or when his back foot hits I'd give that more weight. Cam wake does most of his production in a 10 yard box where he wins early flattens and finishes. Harris ran 4.82 at the combine had he run at his pro day the standard shave on times is about .08 so had he dropped a say low 4.7s I think there would be less made of it. Harris is another work in a 10 yard box guy. Wants to win with the first step which on tape looks sub 1.6 to my eye and he gets to the qb in a hurry. The arm length is where if he doesnt win early he's gonna find the most problems vs locked out tackles. But he can bend he can flatten he may not have wakes rediculous ankle flexion or wakes pure bull rush power but theres meat on the bone there and and he can get sideways and maintain his balance to the qb. And lastly edge rusher was absolutely the right call at 22.
     
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  23. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    How does McMillon get to you at 54? When teams have concerns about the range and the athlete to play every down in their scheme. That's the bottom line and I find them to be valid. That's really what it comes down to. How much in the nickel am I gonna have to sacrifice if I play this kid all 3 downs. He looks maxed out athletically and outside of the straight line 4.61 doesn't test all 3 downs like. This kid is a good football player he gets his hands on you you go down he looks a little suspect in space and he should meet the ball at the los wide more than he does despite possessing above average instincts. Which is another indicator of suspect range. He will pursue he will give you max effort and he will make plays. But what's the counter from the opposition I see coming? Now that Miami has 3 above average instincts for the position in Kiko, Timmons, and Raekwon and definitely has more thump at the poa and with the fill if I'm playing Miami in gonna test you a couple times in base to see what Raekwon has or Koa or whoever but I'm gonna attack you in nickel in the run game and im gonna force you to either take Raekwon off the field or attack his weaknesses with formation play call and Iso space assignments. Miamis counter is probably gonna be zone with the lbs but you can only stay in that if you stop the run in nickel and get teams behind the sticks. Bottom line though is miamis carry cover at lb looks suspect again in 2017. There's no doubt we are better there though. In terms of how the board went Miami pounced at lb at the right time. Kwon and zach cunningham were the only other real out the gate options. Duke Riley was too light and too small for our scheme Alex anZalone jack of many trades master of none type with extensive injury history and Kendall beckwith who I liked all gone by end of day 2 and none of them would I categorize as more ready to play than Raekwon in an NFL game.
     
  24. DefensiveEnd76

    DefensiveEnd76 Football Guru

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    Come on, we need more Eddie Moore and Jamar Fletchers to get us over the hump. ha ha
     
  25. DefensiveEnd76

    DefensiveEnd76 Football Guru

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    Charles Harris is going to have to get bigger without losing speed. He only weighed 249 at his pro day. Just not enough sand in the bucket for an NFL DE.
     
  26. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    How does Cordrea tankersley end up on the board with your comp 3 when he possesses high level ball skills awareness legit 4.41 top end speed boundary starter skills and legit boundary size? When he tackles at the flag football level. I would have taken issue with this pick in the top 50 I'm a big corners must tackle guy. And this guy finds ways not to get involved in that regard. He has high level mirror skills and he competes for the football at the catch point and probably my favorite thing he has is the ability to maintain the man and vision on the qb. In that regard he's a lot like Byron maxwell who does a really good job of vision on the qb and maintaining feel for his man and his assignment. Although this kids even less interested than maxwell in run support or run contain. Which means he likely has to be a top 10 pure cover corner type to offset. I don't see any slot here it looks boundary all the way and he relies on his top end speed an awful lot in college to make up for his mistakes and gets away with it more in college cause he doesn't face on a gamely basis legit top end boundary speed at wr which he will in the NFL on repeat. This kid trust his speed and will sit on routes and the sticks. He fits the scheme well in terms of his cover skills and his ball skills. But how much hair are we gonna pull out when he makes as Deion sanders coined "business decisions" to avoid contact? Watch how he played vs our 7th round pick wr Isaiah ford if you want to see a corner not even remotely threatened by vertical speed.
     
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  27. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Isaac Asiata in the 5th round I was fine with. Wouldn't have liked it in the first 2 days. He looks top heavy is top heavy plays top heavy. Doesn't have a lot of range as a 5.38 guy so the space play and the 2nd level are probably gonna be ehh but he does bring some attitude some nasty and some fire hydrant type contact to the table. Has pretty decent feet for a top heavy guy and reminds me somewhat of Richie incognito body type wise. More the trap type though than pull and 2nd level athlete. Probably has to beat out Larsen to start and I'm not so sure that will be the case frankly but this is probably more a pick headed towards 2018 real return barring injury. Given the depth active are usually a pivot and a tackle in our case Sam young I could see this kid inactive out the gate unless he unseats a starter in camp/preseason. Looks guard all the way which also means either you start or your inactive. Doesn't seem like a great outside zone fit athlete to me but Miami seems content to put it on jay ajayi to run thru contact on wide stuff and drakes speed to offset coupled with laremy Tunsils I expect significant upgrade in the run game play at left tackle.
     
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  28. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    The 6th round rookie dts are project types exactly what you'd expect with late round dts. The lsu kid looks the part more than he plays it right now and the ok state kid is pretty stiff. They both fit the scheme but I don't see either being smart out the gate top 3 options in a rotation at the pro level. More what do I have in 2 year types. Miamis giving Jordan Phillips every opportunity to step up and show he's the future at dt. If he doesn't step up this year I fully expect Miami to invest in a high pick dt next year or one in free agency. These kids are just late round fliers and I'm also glad Miami in this class didn't force a day 2 pick dt. The value just wasn't there.
     
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  29. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    This is a 7th round pick so obviously take that into consideration here. Isaiah ford at va tech was used like a vertical legit speed wr minus the quick slant game. Only problem is he doesn't have vertical speed or separate. He has good body control he runs pretty good routes but I don't think as a boundary option and especially in any vertical type role he's gonna open hips of boundary dbs. I think guys are gonna squat on him and be in his hip. What's the upside here? For my money probably #4 or #5 type. Probably gonna have to show out on specials. If he beats out caroo that's gonna say a lot to me. Cause I expect a lot of guys to be in fords hip at the pro level.
     
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  30. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    I will close with as much as I wanted a safety with a top 2 day pick the value just wasn't there when we came on the board outside of pick 54 when I saw obi and josh jones as finalist for the pick. However both have flaws in their game that needs clean up. Jones takes inconsistent angles to the football in the box in run support hidden more at the college level by his rediculous top end speed and obi doesn't always bring his legs on contact or play with NFL safety physicality. Still I had them and zach cunningham as the finalist for that pick and I would have chosen cunningham and bet on the upside admitting that he's high cut and thin framed and no guarantee that he can carry weight well. It's just a chance I would have taken.
    There was no safety value at 22 or 97.
    Finally here's how I would have gone about with each pick.
    Pick 22 taco charlton (which I understand would have been the pick had Harris not been there)
    Pick 54 zach Cunningham
    Pick 97 Dorian Johnson
    Traded up in 5th round for Desmond king
     
  31. Stoobz

    Stoobz Scout Team Finheaven VIP

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    Thanks for all the insight hoops et al. This made my day off morning cereal a better feed 8)
     
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  32. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Super Donator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    At 20 Yrs old? OK
     
  33. Russ57

    Russ57 Member

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    To get back to the original question.....and admitting I'm not precisley addressing it.....

    I'd be inclined to weighting it towards a program that has proven to develop players for a particular role. For example, Missouri might not be the biggest name but as of late they have been turning out edge rushers. Used to be certain midwest teams were known for OL.....and Penn State used to be "LB'er U".

    So, I'd put less stock on rather the team was good or bad and more on what talent a particular school has shown to develop.
     
  34. Djavelin

    Djavelin Head Dolphin In This Pod Donator

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    We just need draft picks to do great and we will be solid.
     
  35. ONole1

    ONole1 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    According to Rotoworld McMillan missed 18 tackle and Cunning ham missed 21. McMillian had 1 miss for every 12 attempts and Cunningham had 1 miss for every 9.7 attempts. The biggest different between the two IMO is the McMillan attacks where Cunningham is more of a drag down type of tackler.
     

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