The list of super bowl winning quarterbacks the last 15 years tells me Miami needs to swing for the fences to find a dynamic, elite quarterback. Here's the list.
Super Bowl 51 --- Tom Brady
Super Bowl 50 --- Peyton Manning
Super Bowl 49 --- Tom Brady
Super Bowl 48 --- Russell Wilson
Super Bowl 47 --- Joe Flacco
Super Bowl 46 --- Eli Manning
Super Bowl 45 --- Aaron Rogers
Super Bowl 44 --- Drew Brees
Super Bowl 43 --- Ben Roethlisberger
Super Bowl 42 --- Eli Manning
Super Bowl 41 --- Peyton Manning
Super Bowl 40 --- Ben Roethlisberger
Super Bowl 39 --- Tom Brady
Super Bowl 38 --- Tom Brady
Super Bowl 37 --- Brad Johnson
That list contains a number of quarterbacks who will end up in the Hall of Fame. There are a few that stand out as not really belonging, including Joe Flacco and Brad Johnson. Also, it was a diminished Peyton Manning that won with Denver.
So, I think there are really two ways to win the super bowl. One is to have an elite quarterback. The other is to have an amazing defense.
Seems to me that a great quarterback gives you a bigger window of success. It's hard to keep the defensive pieces together as long.
Here are what these quarterbacks were considered
at the time they won the SB.
Super Bowl 51 --- Tom Brady - Elite
Super Bowl 50 --- Peyton Manning - Not elite
Super Bowl 49 --- Tom Brady - Elite
Super Bowl 48 --- Russell Wilson - Not elite
Super Bowl 47 --- Joe Flacco - Not elite
Super Bowl 46 --- Eli Manning -Not elite
Super Bowl 45 --- Aaron Rogers - Elite
Super Bowl 44 --- Drew Brees - Elite
Super Bowl 43 --- Ben Roethlisberger - Not elite
Super Bowl 42 --- Eli Manning - Not elite
Super Bowl 41 --- Peyton Manning - Elite
Super Bowl 40 --- Ben Roethlisberger - Not elite
Super Bowl 39 --- Tom Brady - Not elite
Super Bowl 38 --- Tom Brady - Not elite
Super Bowl 37 --- Brad Johnson - Not elite
For those keeping score 5 elite, 10 not elite.
Then there is this little fact. No QB has EVER led the league in passing and won the SB in the same year. If Brady wins next week, it will be the first time in the history of the SB. In addition, the three greatest seasons by a QB are Dan Marino - 1984, Manning - 2004, Tom Brady - 2007. None of them won the SB during those seasons. Finally, Both Roethlisberger and Brady won SBs at a higher rate before they became elite (although Brady may break that trend this season).