Super Bowl odds after FA and 2013 Draft

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Phinstrodamus, Apr 28, 2013.

  1. Phinstrodamus

    Phinstrodamus 4 centuries dolfans have turned2 one man

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    Not sure if they updated this after draft but currently we are 40-1 (bodog)
     
  2. Fins_of_Fury

    Fins_of_Fury In a contract year

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  3. KTOWNFINFAN

    KTOWNFINFAN Seasoned Veteran

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    I also noticed that we were an early 1.5 pt favorite opening week vs Cleveland. One of only 6 teams favored on the road.
     
  4. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    also only team playing cleveland lol
     
  5. Penthos

    Penthos Am I on speaker phone?

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    You're really living up to that Debbie Downer award today, aren't you?
     
  6. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    I would guess that will probably go up, to -2.5. Maybe -3 but there would be some opposition at that point from so-called wise guys.

    Miami is a whispered uptick team. For decades I've noted that the public loves to push those teams on opening week, if the spot is low enough that they basically have to win the game to cover.

    Obviously injuries could play a role. If nothing changes, I'd say the spread goes up.

    Super Bowl odds are always a joke and borderline irrelevant. I can't believe they receive so much ink.

    If the media members who love to mention those odds could see how they are actually thrown together, they'd never put any stock in them again. Often it's a guy low on the totem pole in the sportsbook, handed a list of teams and told not to make anything high. He'll be munching on a sandwich while assigning 30/1 to this team and 20/1 to that team. Trying not to laugh. Then he hands the completed list to the manager. If every number is suitably a rip off, it's ready to go into the computer and take bets.
     
  7. Fins_of_Fury

    Fins_of_Fury In a contract year

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    Awsi, always enjoy your posts when it comes to sports betting. Definately a unique, well-written perspective of a world I know not much about.
     
  8. The Omen

    The Omen Well-Known Member

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    it's his/her shtick. it's the only way he gets noticed. We can win the SB 3 years in a row and still find something to complain about.
     
  9. Ruckus45

    Ruckus45 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Should have been 4 - fn Ireland.

    Actually Dlockz- that was funny.
     
  10. General Tso

    General Tso Seasoned Veteran

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    Hard to know how any Dolphins fan under 40 will/won't behave when Miami wins a super bowl.
     
  11. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    Thank you. My pleasure. That world is certainly quite different than I estimated, before I moved to Las Vegas, and particularly once I started meeting the people involved, and then working behind the counter as supervisor.

    The big shots have a stake in preserving the myth. That's a major variable. The handful of guys in the media spotlight at any given point in time will always use mysterious terminology and act as if they have special info, instead of the reality of sportsminded guys who found a cushy line of work, and rely on readily-available power ratings to set the line.

    I was at the Hilton a few years ago when their race and sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay gave an interview with a national network. He sounded really authoritative. Once it was over he walked outside the office, took off his coat, and joked with myself and a local wise guy named **** the Pick (Richard Hall). "What did I say? Did it sound good? Those lights were so bright I was really sweating. One of you guys should have done it."

    This site is good. If I report on the industry, it's generally accepted. That's not the case on a certain college football board, where the posters stubbornly insist on the outer space version, with ultra sophisticated future book odds, sportsbooks scheming to set traps, and a determination to balance every game to the dollar so it's win-win all year long. :lol:

    This is a sportsbook staff: Top positions are a few sharp guys who came to town to bet sports and generally struggled, but didn't want to give up and leave town. They reluctantly accept jobs behind the counter. Keep in mind that in that world, having a job is generally considered a negative. It means you can't make it. I think I went 20 years without knowing anybody who owned a credit card.

    Behind those guys are a few ticket writers and lower level supervisors who share some similarities but are new to the job. Invariably they are overly opinionated and believe they should advance to manager within weeks, if not sooner. Some of those guys weed themselves out by being rude to customers, arrogant to the manager, or even scheming to rob the book. They'll figure out how to change numbers, and some of the sharp bettors in town might bribe them for a favor, or many. This has unfolded more times than I can count.

    The manager -- no fool -- will hire a flock of young attractive girls as ticket writers. Nice smiles and demeanor. They won't know much about sports betting, and rarely if ever bet themselves, but they know enough to communicate with the tourists who nervously gravitate to the counter.

    If a sportsbook lacks curvy females, you know the hiring is done from above, not the sportsbook manager itself.

    Then there are older guys as ticket writer, some who have been there for their entire career and never aspired anywhere else, while others no longer can find work elsewhere and are thrilled to land a spot. Unfortunately, many of those jobs for older types are seasonal, hired for football season then laid off.
     
  12. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    yea because us playing cleveland has nothing to do with us being favored on road. Do u think if we were playing a good team on road we would be favored
     
  13. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    Thats quite lame. Maybe u have heard the news we havent won a superbowl in 4 decades. Yea 4 losing seasons in a row , how do I find anything not to like. You should actually think before you make a post.
     
  14. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    The sad thing is you can even make a joke without some bs being spouted. The sad thing is people act like im not rational for being tired of finishing 7-9 .
     
  15. xSxPxHx

    xSxPxHx Scout Team

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    Can someone explain to me about the odds? I never really got it. In terms of money how does it pay off? Say I bet $100 and Miami wins the superbowl. How much is that?
     
  16. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    if u bet a 100 dollars at 40 to 1 . you get forty dollars for every one you bet. Not counting taxes into it
     
  17. fishfanmiami

    fishfanmiami Have you seen junior's grades ? Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    $100 @ 40 - 1 odds pays $4000
     
  18. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    The miami heat basically would pay u 1 dollar for every 3 you bet on one site I have seen. I wonder which books are offering the field for nba championship that could be an interesting bet if you had good enough odds
     
  19. xSxPxHx

    xSxPxHx Scout Team

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    oh ok. I get it now. Damn...wishful thinking if I bet $100 huh?..haha
     
  20. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    there are much better bets u could make with your 100 dollars but hey if are a fan what does a 100 hurt.
    I lost 1000 dollars on USF before.
     
  21. xSxPxHx

    xSxPxHx Scout Team

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    Wow! Well if you have the money why not right?..haha Other bets such as?
     
  22. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    well the object of any bet for me is to win and do u honestly think we are winning superbowl this year.
    I was saying there were better bets out there
     
  23. MercMan

    MercMan Needs more cowbell Finheaven VIP Donator

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    See, there he goes again. Come on Dlockz you're harshing everyone's buzz, dude. I really wish it was possible for people to state their opinions on here without being called names, i.e. "Debbie Downer". It's not like he's saying anything that isn't true. Based on my own observations, if you have a difference of opinion I'm sure that he would love to have a rational discussion, but it really doesn't advance the conversation by calling someone a name and dismissing their opinion without offering a reasonable response to their statement. Man, if I had kid sI bet they'd be so impressed right now.
     
  24. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    im quite confused
     
  25. jetsh8r

    jetsh8r A True Fan

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    If we ever beat Cleveland when we were supposed to then it would mean something.
     
  26. startrek

    startrek Member

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    What are the odds for the Jets winning the SB?
     
  27. Dolph N.Fan

    Dolph N.Fan A True Fan

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    It's like tradition now for Cleveland to open Week 1 at home. Also tradition that they lost they're home opener. Even more tradition to start the season 0-1. Since Cleveland came back in the league they're 0-14 on opening day and 0-13 at home during that stretch. Hopefully Miami extends that streak this season.
     
  28. MercMan

    MercMan Needs more cowbell Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Sorry - just trying to illustrate absurdity through sarcasm. I agree with your earlier statements - keep up the good fight.
     
  29. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    ok got ya
     
  30. Dolph N.Fan

    Dolph N.Fan A True Fan

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    Yeah, we need some one to keep it real around here.
     
  31. dlockz

    dlockz Hall Of Famer

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    I want to win as much as the next man but lets break .500 geesh
     
  32. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    The 1/3 (-300) on the Heat is much too steep. It's true some sites are using it. The more respected books are quite a bit lower. 5Dimes has the Heat -190 to win the title, while William Hill is -175.

    Anyone betting on the Heat would be much better off to take the prices of the 3 remaining series and roll them over. You'd end up with considerably better than 1/3, and probably better than -175 (4/7).

    However, I hesitate to mention that type of thing because it's not realistic. An occasional bettor is not going to roll over series prices, no more than I would dive right in to a specialized aspect of their occupation. That type wants a ticket in their pocket, and some rooting interest. Keep it simple. I fully understand it. There's a thread on a major golf forum right now, with a poster saying his friend wants to bet him $250 on Tiger Woods winning at least 2 of the 3 remaining majors for the rest of the year. His buddy only wants 4/1 odds. The poster senses it's a great deal, but is nervous about losing $1000. I posted in that thread, as did dozens of others. I wanted to tell him the same thing others pointed out, that he could take the bet and then go the other way, guaranteeing a profit. It's called scalping, or arbitraging. The true odds are closer to 9/1 than 4/1. But I zapped a large section of my post once I understood that guy is not going to wait for the US Open, British Open and PGA and isolate the correct props to bet, to hedge his friend's wager. He needs to evaluate the risk as it applies to him, and other variables like stress.

    I haven't seen Heat vs. the Field but I'm sure somebody is offering it. Off the top of my head, it would probably be something like Heat -180 and the Field +140. They aren't going to give you a big plus on the Field because that type of prop is too volatile. An injury can change plenty, like Westbrook the other day. Miami jumped 40 cents when that happened. They were in the 5/7 (-140) range to win the title when the playoffs opened.

    Regarding NFL futures book odds, they aren't a good investment unless the team earns the top seed in a conference, or possibly the second seed. That's the way to look at it. There is so much juice and such a rip off in general that only a few teams will enter the playoffs with considerably lower odds than were available prior to the season. Even when a team barely sneaks into the playoffs, their true odds can be 60/1 or higher.

    Road underdog/road underdog/road underdog/neutral site underdog.

    That's easily 60/1. It can approach 100/1, if the spreads are unfavorable enough.
     

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