The Dolphins’ Jarvis Landry has some cryptic tweets. Let’s try to make sense of them

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Albert Romano, Jan 10, 2018.

  1. 1 dol fan

    1 dol fan FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Baldwin was the one player I was really thinking about comparing contracts with, since I believed they were about equally valuable to their respective teams.

    Baldwin makes that Seattle WR corp click. Without Baldwin that is one sorry position group. I actually consider Baldwin to be a bit more like a #1 than Landry without quite fitting the typical profile. That was my major reason for gravitating towards comparing them. Putting up production like the top dawg without the usual frame or skills. Also Baldwin makes about the amount I would offer Landry to start. It will piss him off but help him to understand where the team sees things.

    Alas I decided against it because Baldwin is more like my ideal #2 and Juice and ideal slot. So I figured it’s apples to shish kababs
     
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  2. TannDaMan17

    TannDaMan17 Well-Known Member

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    Other than the ridiculous amount of receptions Juice has amassed, his age/durability makes him far more valuable on the open market compared to Baldwin, huge difference. We're talking about a potential hall of famer here with Juice, Baldwin in the grand scheme of things is little more than a JAG at this point of his career. And that's not being biased, by the end of Baldwin's 4th NFL season, he was far behind Juice statistically speaking. That's not my opinion, that's just speaking in plain fact.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018 at 4:15 PM
  3. Sarnics13

    Sarnics13 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    No he doesn't. I get your vantage point on this but the problem is that his increased TD's did nothing for the team. He gained, but the team as a whole scored 13 less times this year compared to last. I get that juice is top notch at his position but his position can't be the sole source of your O and you can't pay that money to your slot. Over 10 is too much to tie up in that position.

    You could have the greatest kicker in the league but you still don't pay him 7 million dollars. That position can't warrant that money....... and likewise you don't pay a slot 14.

    None of it is his "fault". He's fought hard for this team, but that doesn't earn anyone a contract that doesn't fit the impact to the team and NO slot impacts their team to the tune of 14mil a year. If they do.... your team sucks and you'll be the lowest scoring team in the league and highest in penalties. As in.... The Miami Dolphins.
     
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  4. 1 dol fan

    1 dol fan FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I know my last post was a bit of a rambler ( it’s what I’m best at) but I think we are at an agreement TannDaMan. Baldwin contract would just be my argument in the negotiation room to start. Eventually I’d give him closer to that 5/65 range

    @Sarnics13:
    I understand that line of thinking. I was more or less interested in the change of opinion on FH from one year to the next regarding what needs to be seen from Juice to get that nice new contract.

    Your right. It’s hard to justify that kind of money to a slot. I just find it funny how much of the talk last year was what Juice needed to accomplish to earn that money. Now that he did it, it still isn’t enough.

    I think part of it is that a lot of people never really expected it to come down to the wire like this, so less was expected contract-wise
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018 at 4:19 PM
  5. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Paint on My Hands from Paintin the Perfect Picture Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If you compare Landry to Baldwin, the 14m number makes even more sense.

    Baldwin got 4/46 (11.5 AAV) 2 years ago and he was 2 years older than Landry is now.

    You take both of those factors and that is easily worth 2 million AAV.

    Cap was 155 in 2016 when Baldwin signed and will be 178 this year.

    Welcome to free agency. If Miami wanted a discount they could of tried to get this done last year. Fact is they took their discount by having Juice for peanuts in his 4th year and maybe they already know they are willing to pay him 14 in an extension.

    Would you all feel better if we redid this deal last offseason and paid him 5/55 instead of this year at 4/56?I got news for you . . . There isn't much of a difference in salary when you add up the 5 years (2017 to 2021) in both situations.

    Hopefully there is some realization when you think about it like that.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018 at 4:28 PM
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  6. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    You're right to a point. There was talk by many here including me that he didn't score a lot of TD's. This year he scored more but I think what happened was that a lot of us noticed that the problem is he doesn't get you chunk yards and fast TD's. He scored most of his TD's from inside the 10. Nothing wrong with that when you just look at the number of TD's......but what you need to understand is that with him being the #1 target you need to drive 12 to 14 plays and hence, we have so many drives that don't end up with a TD or even a F/G. Like is being posted before, he scored more but the TEAM scored less and that's what happens when you run your offense thru a slow slot WR

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  7. J. David Wannyheimer

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    I'm not sure I'd take Jarvis Landry over Doug Baldwin. Just being honest.

    I think the one thing Landry has going for him is his age, and that's it. Baldwin is surprisingly dangerous on vertical stuff outside the hashes. Underrated football player who hasn't put up the big numbers because, unlike Landry, he doesn't get his number called every other pass.
     
  8. matt11390

    matt11390 Starter

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    All you say is good stuff. I'm not advocating paying him but I also know that it's not Landry's fault Miami's offense has stunk. He's been basically the only reliable talent on the offense so naturally he's getting a ton of targets. It bothers me with the thought of him leaving because who in the world will our offense throw to if he does? I just don't like letting the teams top players go.

    Suh. I've never been a fan of his signing. This isn't a knock on Suh I love him as a player but you can't pay a DT that kind of money. It does have a negative impact on the cap and limits how Miami can build the roster. I would only pay a QB that kind of money.

    Honestly, if I was building the roster I would reserve the big money for a franchise QB, LT, DE, and that's it. I would build a strong OL with talented players that don't require top dollar, more middle of the pack kind of money.

    I have a feeling Landry will leave and I hate the idea but I get why. I could swallow it a bit easier if they had just traded him and got some decent compensation for him. Now the best they can get is maybe a end of the 3rd round comp pick.
     
  9. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I think this is the worst argument I've seen for keeping Landry at a high salary. We can throw bubble screens to anybody.
     
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  10. matt11390

    matt11390 Starter

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    I'm not arguing Miami keep Landry just stating the obvious that Landry is the lone play maker on the offense. Drake came on late in the season so there's hope there. If you think Miami could put anyone in the slot for bubble screens you are crazy. You can't deny Landry is a top slot guy. Doesn't mean he's worth top dollar but let's not downplay Landry's value to this offense.
     
  11. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Paint on My Hands from Paintin the Perfect Picture Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Baldwin is a great receiver.

    I would take Landry over him.

    Do not underestimate the situation and rapport he has built up with Russell Wilson as a major part of him truly developing in the NFL. Part of me questions would he be as effective in another situation while I feel pretty comfortable Landry will produce in pretty much any situation.

    No question he is a lot smarter than Jarvis.

    You can't go wrong with either guy tho.
     
  12. Adam Strange

    Adam Strange Question Authority Finheaven VIP

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    The Landry apologetics have just gotten laughable. So now we need to keep him around because not just anyone can catch all those bubble screens.

    So let’s pay a limited receiver 14 million a year so we can keep throwing bubble screens— that’s worked so well. Or we could, you know, not throw so many bubble screens and actually have a potent offense. Crazy, I know.
     
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  13. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I agree that is not his fault. Like I've said before, the team has done that. I just don't want the team to keep on doing it. I'm all for keeping our players but only to a point and that point is not 14 mill a year for Landry. I don't blame him for wanting that much but I'd blame the FO for giving it to him

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  14. Chuck-182

    Chuck-182 Well-Known Member

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    Parker was worth the pick? Are you nuts? I'll agree with your points on Landry and Stills but Parker is a complete bust at this point and I would be surprised if he turns it around.
     
  15. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Paint on My Hands from Paintin the Perfect Picture Finheaven VIP Donator

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    He was saying he was worth the pick from a prospect, BPA and team need perspective where Miami drafted him.

    And I would agree.

    Now he will be a bust if he doesn't flourish in 2018, but I still have no issues with that pick. We needed a legit WR talent for your 3rd year QB, we got rid of Wallace/Gibson/Hartline and only had Landry and just traded for Stills and we really didn't know how effective he would be without Brees.
     
  16. superphin

    superphin Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Don't forget we also got rid of Rishard Matthew a guy who is doing pretty well for himself in Tennessee on a 3/15 contract. We could have had Landry, Stills, and Matthews thats a good rounded WR corps. I know hindsight is 20/20 but if Matthews wasn't so underused by Joe Philbin we probably wouldn't have a need for Parker.
     
  17. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I strongly agree with the sentiment that if Joe Philbin had not kept Rishard Matthews in his doghouse for THREE YEARS because the guy had gone out to his car during halftime of a pre-season game (or whatever stupid thing it was), Miami likely would have had a good wide receiver on the field, may have been able to make a more productive draft selection in the 1st round of 2015, and also may have been able to retain Matthews by not pissing him off.

    In hindsight, I dislike Joe Philbin more than I did when he was here. Some of the personnel moves the Dolphins made during his time in Miami were reasonable -- like trading Vontae Davis because he kept showing up for practice drunk -- while some of them were really infuriating. I think I blame Ireland for Dansby though, to be fair. Dansby took a shot at Ireland on the radio and that was that.
     
  18. uk_dolfan

    uk_dolfan Founder of the FH Adam Gase fan club Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Is that what Matthews did? pretty damn stupid thing to do. Although not something that should still be an issue years later
     
  19. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I don't know, apparently it was something like that. Internet rumor that I saw.
     
  20. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Paint on My Hands from Paintin the Perfect Picture Finheaven VIP Donator

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    On the surface, all we saw in Matthews was a guy who flashed in the Bucs game in 2013 and nothing but discipline issues with the head coach (showing up late, failure to pick up gum wrappers, etc.)

    He was a holdover, along with Landry, from a dismantled WR group. That season we effectively used a one, two and a three for our top three wide receivers. Matthews never had a shot.

    Truth is, Matthews wanted a fresh start and he got that in Tennessee. And even in Tennessee he has his fair share of issues you hear about but he clearly was better than a number four WR . . . And part of me feels like we will see something similar with Carroo in the near future.

    At least we didnt give up three picks for Rishard tho.
     
  21. mrhankey81701

    mrhankey81701 A True Fan

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    I thought Jakeem Grant played Landry out of town toward the end of the year. Grant isn't a reliable pass catcher, but he can basically do the same thing on offense as Landry with the added bonus of vertical speed that can get behind a defender.
     
  22. miamiron

    miamiron A True Fan

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    potential hall of famer??? He had to be added to the pro bowl as an alternate
    Get back to me when Landry is an ALL-PRO selection at least once and preferably
    5 or more times before we go the Hall of Fame route
     
  23. TannDaMan17

    TannDaMan17 Well-Known Member

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    Most catches ever in his first 4 years, it's really not too much of a stretch. I would argue OBJ has hall of fame potential as well, even though he hasn't been a first team all pro selection either. With both of their ages and productivity, in the right offense they could both put up hall of fame numbers. In terms of catches, Landry already is.
     
  24. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    But you have to look at the whole picture. If it comes down to how many catches he has then sure, he'll be in first ballot but how many catches would Jerry Rice had gotten if he was catching 3 to 5 yard passes all day long? about 3000 for his career? You have to put things in perspective.

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  25. TannDaMan17

    TannDaMan17 Well-Known Member

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    If Landry ends his NFL career with the most receptions in NFL history, he will certainly be considered for the hall of fame. They won't say well how many catches would Jerry Rice have had, they will say look at what Jarvis did. No saying that will happen, but it's realistically possible based on his short career so far. Point being, he's a special talent, we need to keep him. If he wants something like 15 mil a year and won't budge then I can see us being forced to move on, but imo we should do everything in our power to keep this dude.
     
  26. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    If he ends up with more catches than anyone then sure, he's probably in.
    The 2nd part where you say he's "special" and that we "need to keep him".......Lots of us believe he's a good player but not special......special is imo when you do things that most players can't do......that's not him........also, how much money would YOU be willing to pay him if you were the GM?......Of course keep on mind that we need 53 players and we will still need a real #1 WR which Landry is not.....so much do you think would be a good price for the team?

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  27. TannDaMan17

    TannDaMan17 Well-Known Member

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    12-13 mil per year, 5 years, half guaranteed. I am by no means an expert on cap, but that sounds pretty reasonable to me. 14 mil plus is over-priced, but on the open market I think he gets that. If we can't sign him to 13 per year or less, we better tag him. Losing him for merely a comp. pick would be dumb imo, just like with OV. He is the heart and soul of this team, and there is no way to quantify that, whether people want to admit it or not.
     
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  28. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    If we don't want to pay him 13 or 14 then why tag him when that'd cost 16mill? At the end of the day of course it's not up to any of us. All we can do is talk about it and share different opinions. It's hard to tell what the FO/Gase is thinking and what Landry's thinking as well. It's going to be intersting what they end up doing

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  29. BobDole

    BobDole Suck it Trebek

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    If Landry plays 12 years and retires at 33, he is on pace for 1200 receptions for 12000 yards and 66 TDs. Durability will most likely keep him from getting those gawdy numbers, as he will eventually deal with injuries with how he plays to contact, but I think 900 receptions for 10000 yards and 50 TDs is a reasonable - possibly conservative - projection. Good luck keeping him out of Canton with production like that.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2018 at 4:18 PM
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  30. superphin

    superphin Starter Finheaven VIP

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    This is not to say Landry is worth 14 million just to show that the lack of TD's as a team and the supposed long drives because of the mount of targets he gets is the reason we don't have a top offense is not true. Below you will see the avg drive of the top 10 scoring offenses in the NFL in 2016 excluding the Saints, Patriots, and Packers because of the elite QB's they each have giving them a signifact boost. The top is the avg drive each team has and the bottom is their averages in scoring drives. Also the Steelers and Bills were tied for 10th which is why there are 8 teams and not 7.


    Cowboys Avg Drive start 28.8/Avg time per drive 3:05/Pts per drive 2.45/Avg Plays 6-Net Yds 34.8
    Avg Drive start 31/Avg time per drive 4:08/Avg Plays 8.4 Avg Yds 60.9/ 81 scoring drives 49TD/27FG


    Falcons Avg Drive start 29.3/Avg time per drive 2:47/Pts per drive 2.90/Avg Plays 5.9-Net YDS 38
    Avg Drive start 32/Avg time per drive 3:26/Avg Plays 7.4 Avg Yds 60/ 95 scoring drives 58TD/34FG


    Colts Avg Drive start 28.3/Avg time per drive 2:45/Pts per drive 2.24//Avg Plays 5.9-Net YDS 32.3
    Avg Drive start 30/Avg time per drive 3:48/Avg Plays 8.3 Avg Yds 59.5/ 77 scoring drives 46TD/27FG


    Cardinals Avg Drive Start 29.5/Avg time per drive 2:31/ Pts per drive 2.03/Avg Plays 5.7-NetYDS 29.5
    Avg Drive start 34/Avg time per drive 3:24/Avg Plays 8 Avg Yds 57.8/ 76 scoring drives 48TD/21FG

    Raiders AVG Drive Start 31.7/Avg time per drive 2:37/ Pts per drive 2.11/Plays 5.6 YDS-Net 30.7
    Avg Drive Start 38/Avg time per drive 3:08/Avg Plays 7.2 Avg Yds Avg 53.2/ 81 scoring drives 46TD/29FG


    Chargers Avg Drive Start 28.1/ Avg time per drive 2:42/Pts per drive 2.09/Plays 5.8-Net Yds 31.4
    Avg Drive start 33/Avg time per drive 3:53/Avg Plays 8.3 Avg Yds 59/ 75 scoring drives 43TD/26FG


    Bills AVG Drive Start 28.9/Avg time per drive 2:42/Pts per drive 2.14/Plays 5.9-Net Yds 31.8
    Avg Drive start 34/Avg time per drive 3:31/Avg Plays 8.0 Avg Yds 59.4/ 71 scoring drives 46TD/19FG


    Steelers AVG Start 27.3/Avg time per drive 2:42/Pts per drive 2.16/Plays 5.8-Net Yds 32.7
    Avg Drive start 32/Avg time per drive 3:37/ Avg Plays 8.0 Avg Yds 59.1/ 74 scoring drives 46TD/24FG


    Miami Avg Start 28.0/Avg time per drive 2:27/Pts per drive 1.81/Plays 5.0-Net Yds 28 YDs
    Avg Drive start 35/Avg time per drive 3:16/Avg Plays 6.8 Avg Yds 59.8/ 63 scoring drives 42TD/16FG

    When we score we do it faster than any of those top 10 offenses besides the Raiders, when we score we also do it in fewer amount of plays than any of those top 10 offenses. I think one of the biggest factors holding us on back on offense are 2 things.1. Consistency and 2. Negative yardage. Last year we lost 1142 yards to offensive penalties but we also lost 216 yards to sacks and our rushing offense had 14.244% negative rushing yards second only to Tampa Bay (although I don't know how accurate the rushing #s are). Just the QB sack yards and penalties alone are 1358 yards. Only the Jaguars and the Rams had more negative yardage between QB sacks and offensive penalties. Catching 5 yard passes may not be desirable but its better than - yards. Fix those issues and this offense may just rise to top 10 with Jarvis Landry leading the WR's. Pay him? I don't know, but don't blame him.
     
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  31. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Doesnt the fact that our scoring drives use less plays and less time mean that there was a/some chunk play(s) somewhere in the drive?
     
  32. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    do you have a link to this, I'm interested in seeing a full team by team break down, ( what's in bold )
     
  33. superphin

    superphin Starter Finheaven VIP

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    I went to pro-football-reference.com and did the math myself but here is where I found penalties and QB sacks. For the penalties scroll down to Offense and it will show you a lot of overall team stats for all teams. For the QB sacks i just went to passing stats for 2016 and grouped it by team because some teams had more than 1 QB start. The Browns alone had 3 QB's with 18-21 sacks each. Here are the links

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm
     
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  34. Ikema

    Ikema FinHeaven VIP

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    I know one thing, in my opinion, he looks like a complete idiot with that stupid mechanical robot thing he does after every catch. Generally, I like Jarvis, but there comes a point where is he really worth all this? As many have pointed out he's a slot receiver without speed. Dude can catch and run after the catch I'll give him that, but just because he's the best receiver on our team does not warrant him getting top four receiver money.
     
  35. superphin

    superphin Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Yes most likely, which is the point. People who are against signing Landry to a big deal say that running the offense through him results in long slow scoring drives, or that we can't be a high scoring offense because of it. Yet on average we scored faster than 7 of the top 10 offenses and did it in fewer plays than 8 of the top 10 offenses. I'm not saying he's worth outrageous money, I just don't agree that we can't be a top offense with him a primary target or because he is our primary WR our drives are long and slow.
     
  36. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    Matthews was not a good player during those three years. He played a fair amount and he was not good. When he changed the way he prepared and became a good player he played a lot more.

    He was a 7th round pick that was undisciplined (which is one of the reasons he dropped to the 7th round), then he matured and became one of the better receivers in the league by his 4th year. You can choose to look at that as stupid Philbin keeping a great player on the bench the whole time or you can look at it as a developed player, a success story.

    Here are our yards per play numbers:

    2015
    Landry- 1.30 yards per snap
    Matthews- 1.27
    Parker- 0.89
    Stills- 0.78
    Jennings- 0.50

    2014
    Landry-1.11 yards per snap
    Wallace- 1.05
    Matthews- 0.64
    Gibson- 0.59
    Hartline- 0.58
    Sims- 0.56
    (Stills-1.51 yards on each of his 617 offensive snaps in 2014. Which is better by far than any Dolphin receiver.)

    2013
    Gibson- 1.41 yards per snap on 252 snaps
    Hartline- 1.12 yards per on 907 offensive snaps
    Wallace- 0.98 yards per snap on 951 snaps
    Matthews- 0.86 yards per on 519 snaps

    2012
    Hartline- 1.21
    Bess- 1.05
    Matthews- 0.65 (232 offensive snaps)
    M. Moore- 0.59 (196 offensive snaps)

    This doesn't seem that out of the ordinary to me. You could argue he took an extra season to develop but there was no reason to play him over the guys in front of him, at least not statistically. Hell, we're doing similar with Caroo and Grant now only they are playing way less than Matthews did and they weren't 7th round picks.
     
  37. bryan

    bryan Scout Team

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    I think everybody is overthinking this thing based on a couple of million dollars a year. The Fins waste stupid money on players like Alonso and Branch year after year.

    Jarvis is a good football player who plays hard. We made him play for cheap this last year so yeah now you have to overpay. That’s what happens in FA when you don’t tear up a contract for a player who has outplayed his deal. Most importantly the guy suits up every week and is ready to go. You let players like Parker walk and pay Juice.
     
  38. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    These are our yards per play numbers from 2012 to present:

    2017
    Landry 0.99
    Stills 0.98
    Parker 0.90
    Grant 0.68
    Caroo 0.48

    2016
    Landry 1.27
    Parker 1.01
    Stills 0.91
    Caroo 0.24
    Grant 0.00

    2015
    Landry- 1.30 yards per snap
    Matthews- 1.27
    Parker- 0.89
    Stills- 0.78
    Jennings- 0.50

    2014
    Landry-1.11 yards per snap
    Wallace- 1.05
    Matthews- 0.64
    Gibson- 0.59
    Hartline- 0.58
    Sims- 0.56
    (Stills-1.51 yards on each of his 617 offensive snaps in 2014. Which is better by far than any Dolphin receiver.)

    2013
    Gibson- 1.41 yards per snap on 252 snaps
    Hartline- 1.12 yards per on 907 offensive snaps
    Wallace- 0.98 yards per snap on 951 snaps
    Matthews- 0.86 yards per on 519 snaps

    2012
    Hartline- 1.21
    Bess- 1.05
    Matthews- 0.65 (232 offensive snaps)
    M. Moore- 0.59 (196 offensive snaps)
     
  39. Honeybager08

    Honeybager08 Member

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    I don't get a comparison of Juice to Baldwin to justify a 12-14 Mil contract. In addition to that argument, all the comments about Juice playing tough or his heart, or the fact that he's one of our best offensive players to justify signing him long term. I can't get behind any of it. If we sign him we are looking at more mediocrity as a team down the road. I'm an older adult fan and I'm sick of watching my team make the playoffs 3 times since 2000!!! And in those 3 years, we were one & done!!! Paying a slot receiver, who doesn't get YAC, 12-14 Mil isn't going to make us a super bowl contender. Hell the Broncos are looking to get out from D. Thomas's contract in order to improve their offense. We can't as a team afford to spend that kind of money on a slot guy. It would be one more bad contract in a long line of bad contracts i.e. Suhs, Alonso, Thomas, Timmons, Maxwell, Branch and for that matter Tannehill's bad contract. This team has no leadership and is undisciplined, creating too many penalties. This team doesn't need Landry, it needs blown up!!! You can't fill the holes this team has by signing Juice long term. This teams front office reminds me of the Yankees years ago when they would sign 30 year olds to long term deals like Ellerby. I'm more in the camp of blowing this thing up & building through the draft like the Astros have done.
     
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  40. Honeybager08

    Honeybager08 Member

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    To add to my previous post. This organization's problem starts with ownership. As owner, why would you not fire our front office, Tbum and Grier. Then hire someone like John Dorsey to turn this mess around. "On June 22, 2017, the Chiefs organization and Dorsey agreed to part ways, this after posting a 43–21 record and three trips to the postseason in his four seasons as GM for the Chiefs."
     

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