The Official Playoff Scenario Thread w/ 3 Games Left

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Kdawg954, Dec 10, 2013.

  1. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    I posted this earlier in another thread but I still see posts coming up about playoff scenarios maybe this will help everybody understand the situation with 3 games to go.

    Here are possible records and how we would look:

    7-9

    First off . . . there is no way Miami can make it in at 7-9. Let's get that out of the way. We would lose a divisional tiebreaker to the Jets. So even if every team on that list is 7-9, we'd be 1-5 in the division while the Jets would be 3-3. Buffalo can actually make it in at 7-9 with the right combo as they would be 4-2 in the division and own the critical tiebreak we wish we had over the Ravens.

    8-8

    8-8 is much more promising. Miami at 8-8 would need a few things to happen. Obviously you need to win a divisional tiebreak first. That means either the Jets finishing with a worse record (7-9 or 6-10) or both teams finishing 8-8 with Miami's lone win coming in week 17 against the Jets (head to head tiebreak which Miami would win with a sweep).

    Once you win a divisional tiebreak, you face the same dilemma you have in a 10-6 tiebreak . . . which is Baltimore. The great thing about an 8-8 tiebreak is, it could potentially introduce more teams into the tiebreaking scenario . . . and Miami's awesome conference record is a major advantage in that battle. If Baltimore were to lose out and go 7-9, Miami WINS every tiebreak against all teams that are 8-8. They own the head to head tiebreakers against San Diego and Pittsburgh and would have 7 conference wins while nobody else could have more than 6.

    If Baltimore finishes 8-8, you could still get in by A. Pittsburgh winning out . . . which Pittsburgh would win any divisional tiebreak based on common games (which is more valuable when settling divisional tiebreakers). If Pittsburgh can't play a factor, you could also hope Baltimore beats Detroit, but loses to NE and Cincy . . . keeping them at 6 conference wins. Then a team like San Diego or the Titans finishing 8-8 would enter the picture and Miami's 7 conference wins vs. everybody elses 6 conference wins gets them in, regardless of the head to head tiebreaker that Bmore owns over us.

    San Diego can still go 9-7 also . . . which obviously makes 8-8 not good enough.


    9-7

    At 9-7, divisionally speaking, the Dolphins would still have to hope the Jets don't win out (which means beating us in week 17). If that happens, we lose a common games tiebreak to the Jets (division record would be tied at 3-3) and they take the divisional tiebreak. The best way to look at common games IMO is to take the 2 uncommon games and the team with the "worse" record in those uncommon games would by default have a better record in common games. Miami is 2-0 in uncommon games (wins against Indy and San Diego), which means they'd be 7-7 in common games. The Jets would be 1-1 in uncommon games (loss to Tennessee but win against Oakland) which would make them 8-6 in common games . . . a better record than Miami. Hope that makes sense.

    Once you win the divisional tiebreak, ****ing Baltimore is the team that can still burn us by finishing 9-7. . . . however now there is a new twist. Cincy could lose out . . . . and if that happens, we get the 6 seed by default as Baltimore would win the division if both Cincy and Baltimore finish at 9-7. Head to head tiebreaks over a 9-7 Cincy and a potential 9-7 Chargers team favor us as we have beaten both teams.

    There is also one scenario that would require San Diego winning out to finish 9-7 and then Baltimore winning 2 of 3, with one of those wins being against Detroit. That would mean Baltimore would only have 7 conference wins and Miami would have 8 and Miami would win the conference tiebreak.

    10-6

    First off if this team finishes 10-6 and misses the playoffs it would be a damn shame, but it is still very possible if New England, KC, Cincy all reach 11 wins and Baltimore wins out and goes 10-6. That is the only way Miami is eliminated at 10-6.

    There are tons of scenarios of getting into the playoffs at 10-6 right now, I'll give a few of them.

    1. Miami can get the 2nd seed and a first round bye by hoping New England loses out, Cincy loses 2 of their final 3 games, and Indy loses another game. Miami would win the division and own tiebreaks over all of them (a 10-6 Baltimore team could also get the 2nd seed in this scenario . . . it gets tricky as a 10-6 Indy team helps us but a 9-7 Indy team helps them.).

    2. Obviously the 3rd and 4th seeds still require a divisional tiebreaker against New England, meaning New England losing out and us winning out. We'd have the 4-2 divisional tiebreak vs. their 3-3 tiebreak. Cincy or Indy would have 11 wins in this scenario.

    3. The 5th seed is only on the table if Miami wins out, doesn't win the division and KC loses out. KC has a terrible conference record (3 games up on Miami, yet tied in conference record . . . think about that) and would lose ALL 10-6 tiebreaks. They need that 11th win more than anybody to ensure the playoffs.

    4. 6th seed is most likely at this time because I don't see NE and KC losing out . . . 1 more win by both and Miami can ONLY get the 6 seed. That is what we probably should be expecting. I will say that week 16 Bmore/NE game will be an interesting root for us. Obviously the better chance relies in NE beating Bmore and opening up the 6 seed path . . . but if Bmore beats NE, and we would of beaten NE the week before . . . we open up the chance to win the division in week 17.

    5. Easiest Scenario to get in at 10-6 via tiebreak is having Cincy lose one of the next 2 games and that Bmore/Cincy game be a winner in / loser out scenario. It's that simple.


    Should be a lot of fun. We just need to handle ours and let it all play out.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 10, 2013
    PhinsPhan11 likes this.
  2. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    assuming this is all accurate i think they should sticky this and then every week kdawg can create a new updated one...
     
  3. BAdkins159

    BAdkins159 Well-Known Member

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    A lot of scenarios but to me the most logical one is getting the 6 seed over Baltimore. If we were to lose one they need to lose two. That is very possible considering they got the Lions, Pats, and Bengals left. It could be huge to beat the Pats this week. If we do 10-6 is likely. Although you can never over look anybody. Especially division rivals like the Bills and Jets.
     
  4. DeathStar

    DeathStar Hall Of Famer

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    As many of us said before...That Ravens loss was a killer.
     
  5. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    No issues with that, Ravens play on Monday night . . . I can imagine a lot of Dolfans will be watching that one. I'll update it after the game or the following morning.
     
  6. LoneStarPhin

    LoneStarPhin Well-Known Member

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    Wouldnt it just be easier to read my MUCH shorter thread laying out the 4 scenarios in which we make the playoffs?????
     
  7. MRojas4

    MRojas4 The Cheese Connoisseur Finheaven VIP

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    So....

    Root for the Chargers, Root for any team playing Ravens and Bengals.

    Got it. Thanks!
     
  8. TheMageGandalf

    TheMageGandalf A True Fan

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    Isn't New England 9-4?

    New England CAN'T finish 11-5 if we win out and BALTIMORE wins out. Because that means New England LOST to us AND Baltimore...so they'd be at best 10-6.

    New England plays us and then Baltimore after.

    EDIT: How do the tie-breakers come up with all three at 10-6?
     
  9. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    Pats are 10-3 . . . they beat Cleveland last week.

    ---------- Post added at 02:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:17 PM ----------

    More important to root against the Ravens and Bengals . . . .but yea the Chargers, Steelers and Titans could all help us in a 8-8 scenario. Also, and this goes without saying, you'd like to get the Jets out of the way before week 17.
     
  10. TheMageGandalf

    TheMageGandalf A True Fan

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    Wait what...mother...yeah never mind...
     
  11. Locke

    Locke They looked like strong hands.

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    Nevermind the Baltimore loss. Those losses to Buffalo and Tampa Bay are looming large to us. Take care of business and we're 9-4 and sitting pretty...
     
  12. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    There are alot more than 4 scenarios and this kind of covers them all based on record. Just an expanded version of it all.

    ---------- Post added at 02:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:20 PM ----------

    If you could only turn one L into a W, this would obviously be it as we would be just about clear. But yea we could of and should of wrapped this thing up a while ago. We should be playing in primetime this week against New England for a chance at the division.
     
  13. natetherock

    natetherock Well-Known Member

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    just win out. with so many missed opportunities this year I don't think that's too much to ask lol.
     
  14. TheMageGandalf

    TheMageGandalf A True Fan

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    Here's my take...

    I don't see us going 2-1. Either we win against the Pats or we go 1-2.

    I see a 3-0 finish if we beat the Pats. So 10-6...

    If the Pats beat us...they might lose to the Ravens because the Ravens will see their chance to lock it up and the Pats will have locked up the division. Then the Ravens lose to the Bengals and go 2-1.

    So, I see the Ravens going 2-1 at worst. I just don't see us having the luck this season on our side to have the Ravens drop more than one.

    Point being, this Pats game is it. We have to beat them at home and if that happens the dominoes will fall. The Pats will definitely beat the Ravens. I can guarantee that the Pats will not want the pressure of having to beat the Bills for the division. They'll want an easy match up and coast into the division title. So they will bring it to the Ravens should they lose here. Yeah the Bills might be easy anyway for them. However, it'll be even better if they don't HAVE to win it for the division, only for pride.

    Of course Detroit might actually show up and beat the Ravens but I never, ever count on Detroit. They have and always will be...the Lions. (Hell watch them win now that I said that...I doubt it but you never know...)
     
  15. Bumpus

    Bumpus Are you gonna drink that? Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    I love these threads.

    [video=youtube_share;yFOvldn_IRw]http://youtu.be/yFOvldn_IRw[/video]
     
  16. ronnieb_23

    ronnieb_23 Rookie

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    The Ravens loss hurt but we would still be ahead of them had we taken advantage of a Bill's 3rd string quarterback or a winless Buccanneers...and that's not even mentioning blowing large leads to Carolina and New England
     
  17. ronnieb_23

    ronnieb_23 Rookie

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    It also disappointing to know that waiting one week after the bye week to bring in McKinnie could also be the difference in us making the playoffs or not. I personal don't believe that fumble would've happened.
     
  18. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    The Chargers winning is only a bad thing if we don't finish 9-7 or better. Truthfully, if they finish 9-7 and we finish 8-8 . . . we don't deserve the playoffs anyways, so I feel this is a positive thing.

    One thing is for certain, teams are not laying down, and we need to bring our best efforts in these last 3 games, because these contending teams are going to bring theirs.
     
  19. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    Going to be a fun update after this win. Go Steelers, Go Lions
     

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