The Official Scenario for the Dolphins to get into the Playoffs

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Kdawg954, Dec 16, 2012.

  1. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    So there is definitely alot of confusion about how the Fins can get in.

    Let's get the MUST things out of the way:

    First off, Miami MUST defeat the Bills and Pats to finish the season 8-8
    Pittsburgh MUST defeat the Bengals this week
    Both Cincy and Pittsburgh MUST lose in week 17 so both of the teams can finish 8-8
    The Jets MUST lose one of their final 2 games

    Here is the breakdown:

    If the Jets win their final 2 games and finish 8-8 . . . that ELIMINATES the Dolphins from the playoffs. The Jets own the tiebreaker over the Fins in that situation as they both would finish tied at 8-8 and finish 3-3 in the division and the Jets OWN the Common Games tiebreaker because of their loss to the Steelers (they still have Chargers) and the Fins 2 wins over the Bengals and Raiders (the only 2 uncommon teams for Miami). The Jets would finish 7-7 in common games while the Fins would finish 6-8 in common games.

    The reason why the Jets were ELIMINATED from the playoffs with the loss to the Titans is because of their loss to the Steelers this season . . . however the Dolphins OWN the tiebreaker over the Steelers because of conference record. The Fins would be 6-6 in the AFC while the Steelers would be 5-7. Even tho the Dolphins OWN the tiebreaker over the Steelers they would never be in a position to use this advantage if the Jets win the Divisional tiebreak (common games) over us.

    If the Bengals finish 8-8 (lose final 2 games) they are eliminated as they lose the tiebreak to the Steelers via head to head. Our win over the Bengals has absolutely no effect on anything (outside of being one of the AFC victories that helped us get a better conference record over the Steelers).

    I know this can be confusing, but there it is in a nutshell. If The Fins defeat the Bills this week and the Steelers defeat the Bengals . . . we go into week 17 with a chance.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 18, 2012
  2. templarwd

    templarwd Starter

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    Ok, now I'm drpessed. I thought the Jest we're out. Now I have to endure a week (or maybe 2
     
  3. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    Although the Jets ARE eliminated from the playoffs with a loss tomorrow night . . . they can eliminate us by winning the following 2 games to finish 8-8 (3-3 division)
     
  4. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    The fins would own the tie break over the Steelers because if the correct scenarios play out then Miami would be 6-6 in the AFC (currently 4-6; wins over Buffalo and NE puts us at 6-6 in the AFC), whereas Pittsburgh would be 5-7 in the AFC (currently they are 4-6 ... beating Cincy puts them at 5-6 before losing to Cleveland puts them at 5-7 in the AFC). I looked this up earlier.
     
  5. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    There you go . . . and it makes sense because the tiebreak between 2 teams for the wildcard is record in the conference. I'll update the original post with this info. Thanks
     
  6. Daytona Fin

    Daytona Fin Playoffs Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    bottom line fins, bengals , steelers tie at 8-8, fins are in
     
  7. DKphin

    DKphin A True Fan Donator

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    Basically, we need a miracle.
     
  8. LennyV

    LennyV Rookie

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    In any event...nice to at least be in the picture this late in the season...
     
  9. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    No, because the Jets can finish 9-7 or the Jets can finish 8-8 and beat Buffalo and still eliminate the Fins.
     
  10. WestSideFin

    WestSideFin A True Fan

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    Wow so jets loose tomorrow night there done? Or the bills beat the jets wow how crazy we are alive tho how nutty is that
     
  11. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    It is nice to still be involved, however unlikely it is.

    There is a good chance the fins beat Buffalo; hopefully Pittsburgh beats Cincy meaning the fins should be alive going into the last week. It is extremely unlikely that events will unfold exactly how we need them to but it'll keep it interesting the rest of the way.

    No, not quite. Jets losing tomorrow (very likely IMO) puts them at 6-8. Same as us. It becomes much easier to understand if the Jets lose tomorrow. Basically they fall into the same boat as us, they'll need to win out or they'll be done.
     
  12. WestSideFin

    WestSideFin A True Fan

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    Obviously a long shot but still cool and hey u never know
     
  13. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    If the Jets lose tommorw they are ELIMINATED. The reason they are eliminated is because of the Bengals/Steelers matchup the following week. If the Bengals win, they are 9-7 (the best the Jets can do is 8-8). If the Steelers win, they own the division tiebreak over Cincy if both teams finish 8-8 and therefore own the wildcard tiebreak over the Jets because of the head to head win earlier this year.

    Any loss by the Jets eliminates them from the playoffs. There is no situation where the Jets can get into the playoffs at 8-8
     
  14. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    So confusing sometimes :lol:

    Lets just focus on beating Buffalo and see what happens :up: :D
     
  15. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    I completely agree, I just thought if we are going to be seeing a bunch of playoff threads, I may as well try to put together one official one with the correct information.
     
  16. Johnstone

    Johnstone Well-Known Member

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    Basically, it comes down to the Jets losing to Buffalo, Miami winning out and the Steelers winning next week and losing vs the Browns, the last week of the season.
     
  17. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    You also need Cincy to lose against the Ravens in week 17 and the Jets can lose the next 2 and beat Buffalo as they would have 9 losses.
     
  18. King Dingaling

    King Dingaling Well-Known Member

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    Do we really want to make the playoffs at 8-8 and get crushed first round again??? Making the playoffs in 08 set us back in my opinion by getting a later 1st that Ireland wasted on Vontae Davis. I would rather see improvement by Tannehill and the rest of the team. We really need a strong offseason to set us up for the future. I'm not saying lose for better draft picks so don't bash me. If we can go 7-9 with a rookie QB, rookie HC, and rookie DC, then I would be pleased with that. Now if we had pulled out the O.T. wins against the Jets and Zona, I would love to sneak in at 9-7. Let's be patient with this coaching staff and I think it will pay off.
     
  19. sinPHIN

    sinPHIN A True Fan

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    dont count on it, but i would **** myself in excitement
     
  20. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    Clay Matthews was sitting right behind Vontae Davis that year and we could of easily selected him . . . I think Hakim Nicks was there as well . . .no?

    The Fins getting to the playoffs means A. They beat New England in New England . . . and B. More than likely a rematch the following week in New England. New England isn't laying down as they want a bye . . . and the Fins have a defense that can keep them in games . . . they just need some creativity on offense. Hell I'd take a playoff spot over a better draft pick . . . oh hellz yea.
     
  21. WestSideFin

    WestSideFin A True Fan

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    Ok i get it now thanks bro
     
  22. mrhankey81701

    mrhankey81701 A True Fan

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    Dumbest post of the day.
     
  23. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Not to mention the Browns need to win at Heinz Field.
     
  24. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    :lol: it definitely isn't likely that everything goes Miami way . . . but atleast there's a chance I guess. We really only need to beat Buffalo and need the Steelers to win over the Bengals next week to have a shot come week 17 . . . I'll take it. The Jets snuck in there in 2009 after some crazy scenario where all the teams fell. They made it to the AFC Championship that year.
     
  25. BAdkins159

    BAdkins159 Well-Known Member

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    Anything is possible in the NFL. Funny how everybody thought us playoff believers were complete morons 2 weeks ago. The Fins may not make but until there is no chance I will keep my fingers crossed. GO MIAMI!!!!!!!!!
     
  26. Despacio

    Despacio Pro Bowler

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    One game, just one stinkin game more that was a win and we'd actually be right in the middle of this thing legitimately. Damn. :/
     
  27. finfanatl

    finfanatl Well-Known Member

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    Nice thought, but not happening.
    Too many things have to happen.
     
  28. WestSideFin

    WestSideFin A True Fan

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    Correct me if im wrong but a fins and steelers win next week would give us a chance at playoffs in the last week of the year
     
  29. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    That is correct . . . no matter what, if those 2 things happen next week . . . we have a chance in week 17.
     
  30. WestSideFin

    WestSideFin A True Fan

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    H$ll ya my dude
     
  31. Daytona Fin

    Daytona Fin Playoffs Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    lol
     
  32. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Awe "Tight End" my favorite position!

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    Best chance of Miami getting into the playoffs is for Ross the call up Robert Kraft and see if there are any tickets left for him to buy and fly the team up there.
     
  33. DefensiveEnd76

    DefensiveEnd76 Football Guru

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    Wouldn't matter if we did make a wildcard because we'd be one and done. We're too damn flawed to go anywhere.
     
  34. kloud_9

    kloud_9 Well-Known Member

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    thanks,I thought we actually could at least show up if we made it...(rolls eyes) I don't understand how a fan can talk like that..im a mavericks fan and they suck right now,but even if they get crushes in the 1st round..its nothing,I mean nothing like your favorite team being the only game on t.v..
     
  35. Marino1313

    Marino1313 Scout Team

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    If we make the playoffs then great! If you get in then anything can happen.
    Now, if we are still in the hunt by week 17, means we have to beat Pats in NE the browns to beat PIT
    In PIT. Which will never happen. I highly doubt steelers lose at home vs the browns even if we got a miracle to beat the pats.
     
  36. DeathStar

    DeathStar Hall Of Famer

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  37. Dolph N.Fan

    Dolph N.Fan A True Fan

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    Just easier to have CIN lose out, NYJ lose out, PIT lose to CLE and for MIA to win out of course.
     
  38. Fin_Frenzy_84

    Fin_Frenzy_84 Starter

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    And just think if carpenter would of made his field goals against the Cards and Jets.
     
  39. kidtransam

    kidtransam Active Member

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    As far as New England goes....they very well may sit their starters in week 17 for the playoffs. Miracle, luck. wishful thinking, or whatever you want to call it....im just ready to see the Dolphins in a playoff bracket.
     
  40. rainmaker1313

    rainmaker1313 A True Fan Donator

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  41. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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  42. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    Dolphins are 4 to 4.5 point favorites over Buffalo, and Pittsburgh is 4.5 to 5 point favorite over Cincinnati.

    I haven't seen money lines yet but the odds of both favorites winning in that price range is roughly Even money. In a 2 team money line parlay, if both teams are -240 (240 to win 100), the multiplier works out to almost exactly an Even money payout. At -240 you receive .4166 cents on the dollar. The example is 100 x 1.4166 x 1.4166 = 200.6755. Like I said, almost exactly Even money. Miami will probably be slightly lower than -240 money line favorite and Pittsburgh perhaps slightly higher. It will round out close enough to Even money that 50/50 odds of those two games falling in Miami's favor is a good way to look at it.
     
  43. Spiff

    Spiff Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Could very well happen. I bet Belichick would rather play us in the playoffs then the Steelers or Bengals.
     
  44. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    Maybe they rather play us in a vacuum but not after they just "let" us beat them the week before. Didn't the Chargers make that mistake against the Jets a few years ago?
     
  45. Birdmond

    Birdmond FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    But aren't we overdue for a miracle?
     
  46. SCall13

    SCall13 Finheaven QB

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    Yes and yes. I was pissed that we didn't take Nicks.
     
  47. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    Yep, if we just found a way to win that first game against the Jets, The Fins would only need Cincy to drop a game against either the Steelers or Ravens in the final 2 weeks and they would control their own destiny. Give us the Jets and Cards (the OT losses) we would be in the driver's seat.
     
  48. mrhankey81701

    mrhankey81701 A True Fan

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    I think that was the bengals vs the jets
     
  49. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Donator

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    Playoffs or no playoffs, if this team finishes out with three wins, including a week 17 victory at Foxboro, I will feel a lot better about them going into the offseason than I will if we **** the bed and get blown out 52-13 to end the season.

    Of course, I'm not even sure this group can avoid being swept by Buffalo, so, uh, baby steps, I guess.
     
  50. SabanHater

    SabanHater ***** in the House!

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    I can see it now.... Everything that needs to happen will happen. The Dolphins will be right on the doorstep of the playoffs and the Pats kick us right in the nuts.
     

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